Marlins at Cubs
O/U 7.5 · RL Cubs -1.5 · Wrigley Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Cubs -1.5 +110
- Published odds
- +110
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 1-2
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETRIVERS · 13 moves| Market | Opened Sep 24 5:00 AM | Close Sep 24 1:50 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Cubs -1.5 (+112) | Cubs -1.5 (+110) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7.5 (-109) | 7 (-129) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Cubs -200 | Cubs -215 | −15 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 24 5:00 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+112) | 7.5 (-109) | Cubs -200 · Marlins +163 |
| Sep 24 6:00 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+112) | 7.5 (-112) | Cubs -200 · Marlins +163 |
| Sep 24 9:00 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+120) | 7 (-112) | Cubs -200 · Marlins +163 |
| Sep 24 10:01 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+110) | 7 (-112) | Cubs -220 · Marlins +180 |
| Sep 24 10:34 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+108) | 7 (-113) | Cubs -215 · Marlins +175 |
| Sep 24 11:40 AM | Cubs -1.5 (+107) | 7 (-112) | Cubs -220 · Marlins +180 |
| Sep 24 12:20 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+116) | 7 (-112) | Cubs -200 · Marlins +163 |
| Sep 24 12:21 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+120) | 7 (-115) | Cubs -195 · Marlins +160 |
| Sep 24 12:28 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+118) | 7 (-112) | Cubs -200 · Marlins +165 |
| Sep 24 12:41 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+115) | 7 (-121) | Cubs -200 · Marlins +165 |
| Sep 24 12:48 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+116) | 7 (-122) | Cubs -200 · Marlins +163 |
| Sep 24 1:21 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+116) | 7 (-122) | Cubs -200 · Marlins +165 |
| Sep 24 1:40 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+118) | 7 (-129) | Cubs -195 · Marlins +160 |
| CLOSESep 24 1:50 PM | Cubs -1.5 (+110) | 7 (-129) | Cubs -215 · Marlins +175 |
The read
It's the last regular-season game at Wrigley, and the Cubs need one win to clinch a playoff spot. Matthew Boyd starts against Tyler Phillips and a Marlins team that has beaten Chicago twice this week to hold off the celebration. I'm laying the price with the Cubs, because I think this game gets decided after Phillips leaves, and he's likely to leave early. His last two starts ended at 68 and 50 pitches, and he hasn't pitched past 5.1 innings in a start since mid-August. Miami's three most-trusted relievers, Calvin Faucher, Michael Petersen and Cade Gibson, all pitched Tuesday and Wednesday. This season Faucher has pitched a third straight day 1 of 14 times, and Petersen and Gibson 0 of 10 each. Sandy Alcantara closed yesterday and starts Saturday. That leaves the middle innings to relievers like Tyler Zuber (10.32 ERA over the last 30 days), Josh Ekness (11 walks in 11 innings) and Victor Vodnik (5.40 ERA). They'll face a Cubs lineup led by Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has a .979 OPS against right-handers.
Chicago's side is in much better shape. Boyd has a 3.77 ERA over his last five starts with only one home run allowed, and he gets through five or six innings. Most of his damage this year has been home runs by right-handed hitters (14 of his 15). Today the wind is blowing in from center at 9 mph, and four of Miami's right-handed starters have expected batting averages under .180. He also has the best defense in baseball behind him (110 Defensive Runs Saved). The Cubs' key relievers, Daniel Palencia, Ryan Zeferjahn and Aaron Civale, all had Wednesday off. On price: Phillips' 3.45 ERA sits 1.21 runs below his 4.66 expected ERA. Expected ERA has him level with Boyd (4.72), so part of Miami's underdog price rests on a number that probably won't hold.
The best case against the Cubs is real. Their bullpen has converted only 4 of 12 saves since Aug 21. They've scored four runs in the two games since Alex Bregman went down. Miami can bring Kyle Stowers and Griffin Conine off the bench late against Chicago's right-handed relievers. With the total at 7, a close game is likely, and that's how a +168 underdog wins. But Miami's two wins this week relied on relievers who are unlikely to be available today, and a chance to clinch at home gives Counsell every reason to push. I'm taking the Cubs.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAT CHECK
Jakob Marsee: 1.151 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.151Marsee has a 1.151 OPS over 43 AB in the last 15 days against a .707 season mark. That is a big jump off a modest baseline in about two weeks of at-bats, so expect him to settle back toward .707. He has 11 home runs. With a 1.5 total-bases line against the Cubs, he likely needs an extra-base hit or two hits, and the season profile makes that a tougher ask than the recent run suggests.
FIRST INNING
MIA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
0/10MIA scored in the first inning in 0 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Matthew Boyd: 4.71 ERA, .218 opponent AVG across 21.0 IP, 3 HR; Tyler Phillips: 5.21 ERA, .312 opponent AVG across 19.0 IP, 5 HR.
BALLPARK
At Wrigley Field, Matthew Boyd pitches to a 5.53 ERA
5.53Boyd has a 5.53 ERA at Wrigley against 2.86 over 66.0 road innings, and hitters bat .271 off him at home. The home number covers 53.2 innings in 10 games, so this is more than a couple of bad outings. Against Miami tonight, price the Wrigley version of Boyd, which is a much more hittable pitcher than his road line suggests.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Marlins are 3-2 vs Cubs this season
3-2Miami is 3-2 against the Cubs and won the last meeting 3-2. Five games, one decided by a run, is too small to show an edge. Tonight is at Wrigley, and the series record shouldn't move your number much.
TEAM RECORD
Cubs 2-6 in Matthew Boyd's last 8 starts
2-6The Cubs have won 2 of Boyd's last 8 starts. Run support and the bullpen shape a team record like this as much as the starter, and 8 starts can swing back fast. Boyd also has a much worse ERA at Wrigley than on the road. Hosting Miami, ask whether the Cubs' home price accounts for how their games behind him have gone.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 10:34 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2I'm taking Brian Navarreto under 0.5 hits at -164. At that price I need him hitless about 62 percent of the time, and I think he clears it. Navarreto is the backup catcher. He's starting today because Joe Mack sits, and he bats ninth. He's hitting .128 with a .426 OPS in 47 at-bats this season and has struck out 19 times. Against left-handed pitching he's at .156 in 32 at-bats, and today he faces lefty Matthew Boyd. He has a hit in only 2 of his last 15 games, and in this role he averages about 2.5 plate appearances a game.
Those few trips to the plate are what I like most here. Batting ninth, he might get two at-bats against Boyd and maybe one more against a reliever. The late at-bat is also the one most likely to go to a pinch hitter. Mack, Kyle Stowers and Griffin Conine are all left-handed bats on the bench, and Chicago is likely to use right-handed relievers. The wind is blowing in from center at 9 mph, and that cuts into the one way a .128 hitter surprises you, which is a mistake he drives into the air.
The strongest case against me is Boyd himself. Right-handed hitters have a .730 OPS against him this year, and 14 of the 15 home runs he's allowed came from righties. He also has a 5.53 ERA at Wrigley. The sample on Navarreto is small too, since 47 at-bats won't tell you a hitter's true level. Still, Boyd's trouble has come against real right-handed bats, and a catcher hitting under .130 still has to square up the ball. At two or three plate appearances, I'll take the zero.
- GARY'S PICKPEDRO RAMIREZH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
I'm taking Pedro Ramirez under 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -135. That price implies about 57 percent. Ramirez bats seventh and has been playing third with Alex Bregman out, getting about 3.4 plate appearances a game. He's cold. He hit .186 with a .544 OPS in September over 59 at-bats and is 1 for 9 in this series. Against right-handed pitching this season he's at .241 with a .668 OPS over 191 at-bats, and today Miami starts righty Tyler Phillips. In his last seven games he's gone under this line five times.
The lineup around him doesn't help either. Chicago is 2 for 26 with runners in scoring position over the first two games of this series. Batting seventh, Ramirez needs the hitters in front of him on base to pick up RBIs, and he needs the bottom of the order behind him to score runs. With the wind blowing in at Wrigley, a single with nobody on usually leaves him stuck at one. To get to two, he'll need a multi-hit day or a run-producing hit, and he hasn't been doing that lately.
The case against me is real. His season average is 1.7 per game over 75 games, above this line, and he cleared it in 7 of his last 15, including games of 6, 5 and 3. As a switch hitter he'll bat left-handed against Phillips, and left-handed hitters have a .747 OPS against Phillips versus .657 for righties. Phillips also rarely goes deep in games, so Ramirez could get a late at-bat against a tired Miami bullpen. That's why my conviction here is modest. The price is fair for a hitter this cold, facing the side of the platoon where he's done the least.
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