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MLB · Fri, Aug 14 · 2:20 PM

Cardinals at Cubs

O/U 8 · RL Cubs -1.5

GARY'S PICK
Cardinals +1.5
MLB@ Cubs· -127
LOST · STL 0 · CHC 3

Cardinals
+1.5

-127 · LOST · STL 0 · CHC 3

Cubs

The pick & result

Published pick
Cardinals +1.5 -127
Published odds
-127
Result
Lost
Final score
0-3

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Gary's Take Friday afternoon at Wrigley, wind coming in from center, with two division rivals opening a series that has been dead even all year. This feels built for a game decided in the late innings.

Clay Holmes is making only his second start after an 85-day layoff, and I’m not trusting him to provide length. St. Louis is rested, has won seven of ten, and brings the sharper recent bullpen into a matchup where the wind should suppress Chicago’s biggest advantage against Matthew Liberatore: right-handed power.

The Cubs may still win, but asking them to clear two runs is different from asking them to win outright. St. Louis has already taken two of three at Wrigley this season, and its lineup is making enough hard contact to keep this inside one run. I’ll pay the -127 and take the Cardinals plus the run and a half.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

  • Clay Holmes: 6.43 ERA over his last 3 starts

    6.43

    Eighteen hits in fourteen innings over three starts is hard contact, not misfortune — something's come loose in the delivery. A pitcher who built a 2.86 mark this year doesn't just turn into batting practice for no reason. I'm not betting on him figuring it out mid-start against the Cubs tonight.

PLATOON EDGE

  • Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Clay Holmes (RHP)

    .976

    Burleson’s better offensive side comes into play against Holmes, and batting third gives it real leverage. He can create an inning himself or move early traffic toward the cleanup spot.

  • Carson Kelly (bats R) draws Matthew Liberatore (LHP), batting 6th

    .976

    Carson Kelly carries a .976 OPS vs. Left (96 AB) against .587 the other way (188 AB), and faces LHP Matthew Liberatore from the 6th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.

RUNNING GAME

  • Green light: Chicago Cubs run, and Ivan Herrera has caught just 3%

    3% CS

    Chicago Cubs steal 0.7 bags a game (91 on the season) and Ivan Herrera has thrown out 1 of 36 runners (3%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • Cubs and Cardinals are square at 5-5 this season

    5-5

    The Cubs and Cardinals are tied at 5-5 across ten meetings this year, leaving zero separation between these rivals. Tonight is a clean slate where fresh execution matters far more than season history.

REGRESSION

  • Clay Holmes: 2.86 ERA vs 4.23 xERA

    4.23

    Hard contact's happening a lot here, north of 44%, but almost none of it's turning into barrels at 5.5% — that's a pitcher managing contact shape, not one just running hot. A tidy WHIP and a strikeout rate over seven per nine back it up. I'd lean toward trusting the process more than usual for a gap this size against the Cardinals tonight.

  • Nico Hoerner: .262 AVG vs .298 xBA

    .298

    Nico Hoerner is hitting .262 against a .298 expected average (xBA) over 525 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .305 against a .325 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.

FANTASY PICKUPS

  • Seiya Suzuki

    .838 OPS

    Pickup vs Matthew Liberatore (5.02 xERA) — .838 OPS, bats 2nd.

  • Alex Bregman

    .754 OPS

    Pickup vs Matthew Liberatore (5.02 xERA) — .754 OPS, bats 3rd.

  • Michael Busch

    .741 OPS

    Pickup vs Matthew Liberatore (5.02 xERA) — .741 OPS, bats 4th.

  • Carson Kelly

    .719 OPS

    Pickup vs Matthew Liberatore (5.02 xERA) — .719 OPS, bats 6th.

CUT LIST

  • Masyn Winn

    0.642 OPS

    Still hitting 6th for STL — 0.642 OPS, 0.243 AVG from the 6-hole.

  • Nathan Church

    0.647 OPS

    Still hitting 5th for STL — 0.647 OPS, 0.239 AVG from the 5-hole.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored August 14, 2026 at 1:35 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, caesars, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    CLAY HOLMESPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5
    MLBChicago Cubs· -152
    LOST · ACTUAL 20

    Clay Holmes
    Pitcher Outs under 15.5

    -152 · LOST · ACTUAL 20

    Chicago Cubs

    Clay Holmes made his first major league start in nearly three months on August 8 after recovering from a fractured right fibula. In that outing against Kansas City, he was lifted after four innings and 70 pitches after allowing four earned runs on six hits.

    The Cubs are managing his workload carefully while he builds his stamina back up, and he remains on a strict pitch count. To clear 15.5 outs, Holmes would need to pitch into the sixth inning. Facing a Cardinals lineup that works deep counts and forces starting pitchers to throw strikes, Holmes is unlikely to record 16 outs before hitting his pitch limit or turning the game over to Chicago's bullpen.

  • GARY'S PICK
    JJ WETHERHOLTWALKS OVER 0.5
    MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +125
    LOST · ACTUAL 0

    JJ Wetherholt
    Walks over 0.5

    +125 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

    St. Louis Cardinals

    JJ Wetherholt has shown elite plate discipline at the top of the St. Louis order. His recent chase rate sits at an absurdly low 12 percent, making him one of the most patient hitters in the league right now. He has drawn at least one walk in 11 of his last 15 games, including two walks in his last start on Wednesday.

    Clay Holmes relies heavily on his sinker to expand the strike zone and generate chase outside it, but Wetherholt simply does not expand. Holmes walked two batters in four innings during his return last week and has put multiple men on via base on balls in three of his last four outings. Getting +125 on a leadoff hitter with this kind of eye who is walking in over 70 percent of his recent starts is exceptional value.

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