Cubs at Reds

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The research

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All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  CLAY HOLMESPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

  MLBChicago Cubs· -199

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 5

  GARY'S TAKE

  Command's the story with Holmes, not stuff, and right now the command isn't there. He's walked multiple hitters in seven of his last eight starts, and the free passes have piled up fast — nine walks across his last three outings alone, including three in the Miami start that turned into an eight-run disaster. That's not a blip, it's the shape of his season: a 1.94 ERA at home versus 3.77 on the road, with his last three road starts carrying a 7.04 ERA. He's back on the road tonight in a small ballpark along the Ohio River that punishes exactly the kind of mistake a wild outing produces, against a Reds lineup with real patience up and down the order — JJ Bleday has 69 walks this year, Elly De La Cruz has 64, Eugenio Suarez has 51. When Holmes starts missing off the plate in a yard like this, the walks come first. The case against it: this is also the pitcher who fired seven shutout innings on just two walks in Arizona last month, and he's had five full days to rest and reset since Pittsburgh. If he's locating the sinker the way he did in that outing, this is a clean, low-walk night and the under cashes instead. But the last three turns say the control problems are the base case right now, not the exception.

  ×

  Clay Holmes
  Pitcher Walks over 1.5

  -199 · CASHED · ACTUAL 5

  Chicago Cubs

  Read Gary’s Take

  Command's the story with Holmes, not stuff, and right now the command isn't there. He's walked multiple hitters in seven of his last eight starts, and the free passes have piled up fast — nine walks across his last three outings alone, including three in the Miami start that turned into an eight-run disaster. That's not a blip, it's the shape of his season: a 1.94 ERA at home versus 3.77 on the road, with his last three road starts carrying a 7.04 ERA. He's back on the road tonight in a small ballpark along the Ohio River that punishes exactly the kind of mistake a wild outing produces, against a Reds lineup with real patience up and down the order — JJ Bleday has 69 walks this year, Elly De La Cruz has 64, Eugenio Suarez has 51. When Holmes starts missing off the plate in a yard like this, the walks come first.

  The case against it: this is also the pitcher who fired seven shutout innings on just two walks in Arizona last month, and he's had five full days to rest and reset since Pittsburgh. If he's locating the sinker the way he did in that outing, this is a clean, low-walk night and the under cashes instead. But the last three turns say the control problems are the base case right now, not the exception.

• GARY'S PICK

  CHASE BURNSPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 0.5

  MLBCincinnati Reds· -187

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  This is a low bar, and Burns has cleared it in six of his last eight starts. Cincinnati has him on a hard innings limit down the stretch — Terry Francona has piggybacked him with Brandon Williamson and pulled him after exactly three innings in each of his last two turns. A start that short leaves no room for a mistake pitch to get erased later, and mistake pitches have found left-handed bats all year: lefties are hitting .232 with a .725 OPS and 13 home runs against him in 345 at-bats, well above his .189/.499 line against right-handers. Chicago sends Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Ian Happ and Michael Conforto to the plate from the left side tonight, in a Great American Ball Park that plays small and hitter-friendly. His last turn out was three innings, two earned, a homer allowed to Milwaukee — that's the more likely shape of tonight than a zero. The case against it: Burns is a legitimately different pitcher at home, with a 2.09 ERA at Great American against 3.46 on the road, and the last time he faced this Cubs lineup, at Wrigley in August, he worked into the sixth and got the win despite four Reds home runs bailing him out. If the short-start plan gives him the clean three-inning look it gave him against the Dodgers on September 7 — zero runs, out before any damage — this one misses.

  ×

  Chase Burns
  Pitcher Earned Runs over 0.5

  -187 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  Cincinnati Reds

  Read Gary’s Take

  This is a low bar, and Burns has cleared it in six of his last eight starts. Cincinnati has him on a hard innings limit down the stretch — Terry Francona has piggybacked him with Brandon Williamson and pulled him after exactly three innings in each of his last two turns. A start that short leaves no room for a mistake pitch to get erased later, and mistake pitches have found left-handed bats all year: lefties are hitting .232 with a .725 OPS and 13 home runs against him in 345 at-bats, well above his .189/.499 line against right-handers. Chicago sends Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Ian Happ and Michael Conforto to the plate from the left side tonight, in a Great American Ball Park that plays small and hitter-friendly. His last turn out was three innings, two earned, a homer allowed to Milwaukee — that's the more likely shape of tonight than a zero.

  The case against it: Burns is a legitimately different pitcher at home, with a 2.09 ERA at Great American against 3.46 on the road, and the last time he faced this Cubs lineup, at Wrigley in August, he worked into the sixth and got the win despite four Reds home runs bailing him out. If the short-start plan gives him the clean three-inning look it gave him against the Dodgers on September 7 — zero runs, out before any damage — this one misses.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.