Astros picks

It's elimination night under the closed roof at Daikin Park. The White Sox can close out the Wild Card Series, and the Astros hand the ball to Hunter Brown to extend their October. My pick rests on where this game gets decided. Brown has thrown 90 to 102 pitches in each of the last eight starts and topped out at 6.2 innings. Brown's season also includes 37 walks in 220 AB against left-handed hitters, and Chicago starts six lefties plus a switch-hitter. That points to a start of about five innings and a long bridge before Josh Hader, and the bridge is the soft spot. Bennett Sousa has allowed 5 ER in 1.2 IP over the last week, and Bryan King carries a 10.13 ERA over 30 days. Miguel Ullola and Josh Hendrickson threw 31 and 37 pitches yesterday. Brown's last two strong starts both turned right after Brown left. King allowed 4 ER on Sep 20, and Sousa let both inherited runners score on Sep 25. On the other side, Sean Burke has handled this lineup: 11⅔ innings, 2 ER and 16 strikeouts against Houston this year, per the Sun-Times. Right-handed hitters have a .646 OPS against Burke, and Houston fields seven of them tonight. Burke has allowed 2 ER over the last four outings and threw 62 of 89 pitches for strikes last time out. Chicago's heart of the order also hits sinkers, Brown's most-used pitch. Miguel Vargas has a .416 xwOBA against them. The case against me is real. Brown's September strikeout rate was 34.2%, and Chicago has a .670 OPS against right-handed starters over the last 30 days. Grant Taylor threw 54 pitches yesterday, so Chicago's ninth inning is shakier than Houston's. I still take the price. At −152 the market has Houston near 58%, yet Chicago's +56 run differential against Houston's −32 says the better team is the underdog. Houston's edges sit in the first five innings and the last three outs. Chicago's rested middle arms (Huascar Brazobán, Noah Schultz, Erick Fedde) line up with Houston's weakest innings. At +128, I'll back the better team to finish it.