Guardians picks

Game 6 is at Tropicana Field, and the Rays are one win from the World Series in the building where they had the best home record in the majors. The Guardians came in from Ohio with no off-day, and they have to win twice to keep going. Cleveland is running a bullpen game on tired arms. Cade Smith, Erik Sabrowski and Hunter Gaddis all pitched Sunday to keep Game 5 close, and the Guardians lost it anyway. Tim Herrin has gone two straight days. Shawn Armstrong opens on a third appearance in three days, after missing about two months with a calf strain this summer. Gavin Williams won't start, and nobody has said clearly whether Williams can relieve. Tanner Bibee is rested, but no one has announced who carries the bulk. Tampa Bay counters with Freddy Peralta, who has allowed 2 earned runs in 26.2 innings over the last five starts. Peralta threw 6.0 scoreless innings against this lineup in Game 2 here. Behind Peralta, Cole Sulser, Steven Matz, Griffin Jax and Brody Hopkins haven't pitched in three days, and Kevin Kelly sat Sunday. Kevin Cash can go to the pen early without worry. Cleveland's bats have also gone cold, with 3 runs in Game 4 and 1 in Game 5. Tired pitching needs an offense to cover for it, and the Guardians haven't had one. This could go wrong. Cleveland has been here before. Down 0-2 to the White Sox, the Guardians won Games 3, 4 and 5 with their season on the line, and they rallied late to take Game 1 of this series at the Trop. Peralta walked 11 in those 26.2 innings. If the Guardians work deep counts, the Rays may need Bryan Baker and Cam Booser earlier than Cash would like, and both are on back-to-back days. José Ramírez can also change any night with one swing. But the Rays took Games 4 and 5 in Cleveland, and now they're home in the park they spent a year away from. Cleveland has to survive tonight on fumes against the pitcher who already shut them down once in this building. I'll take the Rays.