Guardians at Red Sox

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The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  TREVOR STORYHITS OVER 0.5

  MLBBoston Red Sox· -135

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Trevor Story over 0.5 hits at -135, which works out to about a 57 percent ask. He has a hit in 13 of his last 15 games. He is batting .300 with a .777 OPS over 70 September at bats, and he is 12 for 41 over the last 15 days. His full season supports the price even without the hot streak: 1.0 hits per game over 61 games on a .243 average. The matchup also fits his splits. Cantillo is scheduled to pitch most of this game behind Espino, and Story hits .266 against lefties compared with .235 against righties. The lefty sample is only 64 at bats, so I count that as a small edge. The strongest case against this bet starts with his spot in the order. He bats eighth, so three trips to the plate is a real possibility, fewer than the four his season average assumes. He also strikes out a lot: 81 strikeouts in 243 at bats is a third of his at bats ending without the ball in play. He went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts on Wednesday and is hitless in this series. Cantillo has allowed just 3 hits with 13 strikeouts over 10 innings in his two bulk outings. The wind blowing in at 13 mph on a 59 degree night also takes some carry off fly balls. Still, one hit is a low bar for a hitter who has cleared it nearly every night for two weeks, and the price doesn't charge much for that form. I'm on the over.

  ×

  Trevor Story
  Hits over 0.5

  -135 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Boston Red Sox

  Read Gary’s Take

  Trevor Story over 0.5 hits at -135, which works out to about a 57 percent ask. He has a hit in 13 of his last 15 games. He is batting .300 with a .777 OPS over 70 September at bats, and he is 12 for 41 over the last 15 days. His full season supports the price even without the hot streak: 1.0 hits per game over 61 games on a .243 average. The matchup also fits his splits. Cantillo is scheduled to pitch most of this game behind Espino, and Story hits .266 against lefties compared with .235 against righties. The lefty sample is only 64 at bats, so I count that as a small edge.

  The strongest case against this bet starts with his spot in the order. He bats eighth, so three trips to the plate is a real possibility, fewer than the four his season average assumes. He also strikes out a lot: 81 strikeouts in 243 at bats is a third of his at bats ending without the ball in play. He went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts on Wednesday and is hitless in this series. Cantillo has allowed just 3 hits with 13 strikeouts over 10 innings in his two bulk outings. The wind blowing in at 13 mph on a 59 degree night also takes some carry off fly balls. Still, one hit is a low bar for a hitter who has cleared it nearly every night for two weeks, and the price doesn't charge much for that form. I'm on the over.

• GARY'S PICK

  ADLEY RUTSCHMANWALKS UNDER 0.5

  MLBBoston Red Sox· -150

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Adley Rutschman under 0.5 walks at -150. That price needs a walkless night about 60 percent of the time, and his recent play clears that bar. He has drawn a walk in 1 of his last 15 games, and that one game was a two-walk night. In this series he is 4 for 8 with no walks, putting the ball in play early. He is hitting .300 over the last seven days with an .848 OPS in September. Even his full season rate of 38 walks in 97 games leaves most of his nights without one. Hitting third behind Sogard and Gasper, he should get about four trips to the plate. Those will come against a pitching staff that has to throw strikes in a one-game division race. The strongest case against this bet is who is on the mound. Espino walked three hitters in his one inning against the A's last time out and has 7 walks in 13.1 innings this year. Cantillo, who follows him, has 79 walks in 154 innings and walked 5 in 2.1 innings on September 7. Rutschman is a switch hitter, so he faces Espino from the left side and Cantillo from the right. A pitcher who can't find the zone can hand any hitter a walk, whatever his approach. Two things push me back to the under. Cantillo has walked only 2 hitters over 10 innings in his two bulk outings since that rough start. And Rutschman's own recent pattern is the more reliable read. I'll lay the price.

  ×

  Adley Rutschman
  Walks under 0.5

  -150 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  Boston Red Sox

  Read Gary’s Take

  Adley Rutschman under 0.5 walks at -150. That price needs a walkless night about 60 percent of the time, and his recent play clears that bar. He has drawn a walk in 1 of his last 15 games, and that one game was a two-walk night. In this series he is 4 for 8 with no walks, putting the ball in play early. He is hitting .300 over the last seven days with an .848 OPS in September. Even his full season rate of 38 walks in 97 games leaves most of his nights without one. Hitting third behind Sogard and Gasper, he should get about four trips to the plate. Those will come against a pitching staff that has to throw strikes in a one-game division race.

  The strongest case against this bet is who is on the mound. Espino walked three hitters in his one inning against the A's last time out and has 7 walks in 13.1 innings this year. Cantillo, who follows him, has 79 walks in 154 innings and walked 5 in 2.1 innings on September 7. Rutschman is a switch hitter, so he faces Espino from the left side and Cantillo from the right. A pitcher who can't find the zone can hand any hitter a walk, whatever his approach. Two things push me back to the under. Cantillo has walked only 2 hitters over 10 innings in his two bulk outings since that rough start. And Rutschman's own recent pattern is the more reliable read. I'll lay the price.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.