Winner-take-all at Progressive Field. Sean Burke and Gavin Williams meet with a trip to Tampa Bay on the line, in a series where the road team has won all four games. I'm taking the White Sox at plus money because Burke is the starter I trust most against this particular opponent. He has a 1.19 ERA against the Guardians this season, with 27 strikeouts and four walks in 22 2/3 innings. In his last two outings in Cleveland he allowed one earned run over 10 1/3 innings. Look at how Cleveland broke out in Chicago: White Sox pitchers walked 10 in Game 3 and seven more in Game 4. In Games 1 and 2, against Chicago's longest-working arms, Cleveland scored three runs total and went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position. Burke has walked two batters in 14.2 innings over his last three outings, which takes away the walks that fed Cleveland's two big games. Ramírez is hot, but he's 0-for-8 in his career against Burke and has a .625 OPS against right-handers this year. Williams has the bigger arm, but he comes in with more questions. He threw 18 high-leverage pitches Thursday in his first pro relief appearance. He has also walked 14 batters in 26.1 innings over his last five starts. This same matchup has happened twice in the last four weeks, with Williams starting and Burke pitching the bulk innings, and Chicago won both. On Sep 14 they won 7-3, and Williams needed 113 pitches to get through five innings, with three walks and two hit batters. In Game 2 they won 4-3. Vargas is 6-for-14 against Williams and has reached base 12 times in this series. If Chicago makes Williams work, the game gets to a Cleveland bullpen with problems. Cade Smith threw 50 pitches across Games 3 and 4, spent Friday getting treatment, and is reportedly limited to one inning tonight. Gaddis has allowed left-handed hitters a .301/.373/.496 line, and he'd be facing a lineup with six lefties. The risk is real. Chicago is striking out 12.50 times a game this postseason against the AL strikeout leader. Its bullpen behind Burke is also the thinner one: Grant Taylor is coming off an outing where he got nobody out, and Fedde may be unavailable after throwing 61 pitches. That's why this is a bet on the price, not a lock. These clubs are 9-8 over 17 meetings, yet the +120 line treats Chicago as a clear underdog. Burke gives the Sox their best shot at innings from their starter. Newcomb and Schultz have had two days off to cover after him, and Grichuk is on the bench to hit against Cleveland's left-handed relievers. I'll take the plus money.
Winner-take-all at Progressive Field. Sean Burke and Gavin Williams meet with a trip to Tampa Bay on the line, in a series where the road team has won all four games. I'm taking the White Sox at plus money because Burke is the starter I trust most against this particular opponent. He has a 1.19 ERA against the Guardians this season, with 27 strikeouts and four walks in 22 2/3 innings. In his last two outings in Cleveland he allowed one earned run over 10 1/3 innings. Look at how Cleveland broke out in Chicago: White Sox pitchers walked 10 in Game 3 and seven more in Game 4. In Games 1 and 2, against Chicago's longest-working arms, Cleveland scored three runs total and went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position. Burke has walked two batters in 14.2 innings over his last three outings, which takes away the walks that fed Cleveland's two big games. Ramírez is hot, but he's 0-for-8 in his career against Burke and has a .625 OPS against right-handers this year.
Williams has the bigger arm, but he comes in with more questions. He threw 18 high-leverage pitches Thursday in his first pro relief appearance. He has also walked 14 batters in 26.1 innings over his last five starts. This same matchup has happened twice in the last four weeks, with Williams starting and Burke pitching the bulk innings, and Chicago won both. On Sep 14 they won 7-3, and Williams needed 113 pitches to get through five innings, with three walks and two hit batters. In Game 2 they won 4-3. Vargas is 6-for-14 against Williams and has reached base 12 times in this series. If Chicago makes Williams work, the game gets to a Cleveland bullpen with problems. Cade Smith threw 50 pitches across Games 3 and 4, spent Friday getting treatment, and is reportedly limited to one inning tonight. Gaddis has allowed left-handed hitters a .301/.373/.496 line, and he'd be facing a lineup with six lefties.
The risk is real. Chicago is striking out 12.50 times a game this postseason against the AL strikeout leader. Its bullpen behind Burke is also the thinner one: Grant Taylor is coming off an outing where he got nobody out, and Fedde may be unavailable after throwing 61 pitches. That's why this is a bet on the price, not a lock. These clubs are 9-8 over 17 meetings, yet the +120 line treats Chicago as a clear underdog. Burke gives the Sox their best shot at innings from their starter. Newcomb and Schultz have had two days off to cover after him, and Grichuk is on the bench to hit against Cleveland's left-handed relievers. I'll take the plus money.
White Sox Moneyline