Pirates at White Sox

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  LAKE BACHARPITCHER WALKS OVER 0.5

  MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -195

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Bachar isn't pitching to finish games anymore, he's pitching to start them and get off the mound — tonight is his third straight turn as the Pirates' opener, and that role has come with traffic. He's walked at least one hitter in six of his last eight outings, including a start where he threw only 28 pitches before handing off. The lineup he's opening against makes it worse, not better. Munetaka Murakami has drawn 82 walks this season, Sam Antonacci owns a .366 on-base mark at the top of the order, and Chase Meidroth has 55 walks of his own from the eight-hole. Bachar works off a four-to-six-pitch mix built to miss bats rather than pound the zone, and that kind of arsenal tends to cost a free pass or two before it costs a hard-hit ball. Laying -195 isn't cheap, but a pitcher who's walked someone in three of every four starts clears that number with room in reserve.

  ×

  Lake Bachar
  Pitcher Walks over 0.5

  -195 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Pittsburgh Pirates

  Read Gary’s Take

  Bachar isn't pitching to finish games anymore, he's pitching to start them and get off the mound — tonight is his third straight turn as the Pirates' opener, and that role has come with traffic. He's walked at least one hitter in six of his last eight outings, including a start where he threw only 28 pitches before handing off.

  The lineup he's opening against makes it worse, not better. Munetaka Murakami has drawn 82 walks this season, Sam Antonacci owns a .366 on-base mark at the top of the order, and Chase Meidroth has 55 walks of his own from the eight-hole. Bachar works off a four-to-six-pitch mix built to miss bats rather than pound the zone, and that kind of arsenal tends to cost a free pass or two before it costs a hard-hit ball.

  Laying -195 isn't cheap, but a pitcher who's walked someone in three of every four starts clears that number with room in reserve.

• THE LONG SHOT

  RAFAEL FLORES JR.HR OVER 0.5

  MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +740

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Flores went deep in this same ballpark last night, a three-hit game that included his eighth home run in just 99 at-bats — a rate that puts him among the most productive power bats on this roster per swing, small sample notwithstanding. The wind tonight blows out to left field at eight miles an hour, and Flores is a right-handed hitter who does his pull-side damage in that direction. He's got three home runs in only 46 at-bats against right-handed pitching this season, and Davis Martin's cutter has been hit at a .382 clip with a .416 xwOBA allowed — a pitch Flores can do damage to if Martin leans on it the way he has all year. This is a longshot by design — three home runs in his last fifteen games, not a majority of nights — but he's hot, he's in the lineup behind the plate, and the ballpark conditions favor exactly the kind of swing he brings tonight.

  ×

  Rafael Flores Jr.
  HR over 0.5

  +740 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Pittsburgh Pirates

  Read Gary’s Take

  Flores went deep in this same ballpark last night, a three-hit game that included his eighth home run in just 99 at-bats — a rate that puts him among the most productive power bats on this roster per swing, small sample notwithstanding.

  The wind tonight blows out to left field at eight miles an hour, and Flores is a right-handed hitter who does his pull-side damage in that direction. He's got three home runs in only 46 at-bats against right-handed pitching this season, and Davis Martin's cutter has been hit at a .382 clip with a .416 xwOBA allowed — a pitch Flores can do damage to if Martin leans on it the way he has all year.

  This is a longshot by design — three home runs in his last fifteen games, not a majority of nights — but he's hot, he's in the lineup behind the plate, and the ballpark conditions favor exactly the kind of swing he brings tonight.

• GARY'S PICK

  CHASE MEIDROTHHITS OVER 0.5

  MLBChicago White Sox· -160

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Meidroth is a better table-setter than his spot in the order suggests. He's seeing 4.2 plate appearances a night, just a tick below leadoff man Sam Antonacci's 4.4, with 55 walks this season and a .269 average built on contact rather than power. He opened this series 0-for-3 against Sean Burke on Tuesday, and a hitter with that profile doesn't go long stretches without a knock. The pitching in front of him splits into two different problems tonight. Bachar is genuinely tough on righties, holding them to .163 this year, but he's opening again, good for two or three innings before Pittsburgh turns it over to Carmen Mlodzinski, who carries a 1.38 WHIP and is a lot more hittable. Most of Meidroth's looks tonight land against that softer stretch of the game, not against the arm built to shut him down. Four-plus trips for a contact hitter against a staff that's mostly relief arms is a fair setup for one clean single, even coming off an 0-for-3.

  ×

  Chase Meidroth
  Hits over 0.5

  -160 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Chicago White Sox

  Read Gary’s Take

  Meidroth is a better table-setter than his spot in the order suggests. He's seeing 4.2 plate appearances a night, just a tick below leadoff man Sam Antonacci's 4.4, with 55 walks this season and a .269 average built on contact rather than power. He opened this series 0-for-3 against Sean Burke on Tuesday, and a hitter with that profile doesn't go long stretches without a knock.

  The pitching in front of him splits into two different problems tonight. Bachar is genuinely tough on righties, holding them to .163 this year, but he's opening again, good for two or three innings before Pittsburgh turns it over to Carmen Mlodzinski, who carries a 1.38 WHIP and is a lot more hittable. Most of Meidroth's looks tonight land against that softer stretch of the game, not against the arm built to shut him down.

  Four-plus trips for a contact hitter against a staff that's mostly relief arms is a fair setup for one clean single, even coming off an 0-for-3.