Tigers at White Sox

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  TOMMY PHAMWALKS UNDER 0.5

  MLBChicago White Sox· -200

  LOST · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Pham is in the lineup again after coming off the injured list yesterday, and his one game back told you everything about how he is trying to hit right now. Four at-bats, zero walks, and a three-run homer on a pitch he decided to do damage with rather than take one. That is consistent with where his whole season has gone in a jarringly small sample: one walk in eighteen at-bats, and the trend on him shows a walk in just one of his last eleven games. He is hitting second tonight and projects for close to two plate appearances, which is not much runway for a free pass to sneak in even if the approach shifts. The case against me is that Pham built a decade-long reputation as a hitter who works counts, and if that version of him shows up instead of the hacker he has been the last few weeks, a walk against Valdez is not a stretch — Valdez has issued 60 walks in 163.2 innings this year and can lose the strike zone in stretches. But I am betting on the version of Pham that is actually on the field right now, not the one from a few years back, and everything about his return swing says he is up there to do damage on the first good pitch, not to grind an at-bat. At -200 for a hitter averaging close to one walk a month, the number is priced for exactly what he has been doing.

  ×

  Tommy Pham
  Walks under 0.5

  -200 · LOST · ACTUAL 1

  Chicago White Sox

  Read Gary’s Take

  Pham is in the lineup again after coming off the injured list yesterday, and his one game back told you everything about how he is trying to hit right now. Four at-bats, zero walks, and a three-run homer on a pitch he decided to do damage with rather than take one. That is consistent with where his whole season has gone in a jarringly small sample: one walk in eighteen at-bats, and the trend on him shows a walk in just one of his last eleven games. He is hitting second tonight and projects for close to two plate appearances, which is not much runway for a free pass to sneak in even if the approach shifts.

  The case against me is that Pham built a decade-long reputation as a hitter who works counts, and if that version of him shows up instead of the hacker he has been the last few weeks, a walk against Valdez is not a stretch — Valdez has issued 60 walks in 163.2 innings this year and can lose the strike zone in stretches. But I am betting on the version of Pham that is actually on the field right now, not the one from a few years back, and everything about his return swing says he is up there to do damage on the first good pitch, not to grind an at-bat. At -200 for a hitter averaging close to one walk a month, the number is priced for exactly what he has been doing.

• THE LONG SHOT

  SPENCER TORKELSONHR OVER 0.5

  MLBDetroit Tigers· +550

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Torkelson is running as hot as anyone in this matchup right now. He has four home runs in his last fifteen games, a 1.005 OPS in September, and two homers in his last seven games alone. Almost all of his power this season comes against right-handed pitching — 21 of his 24 home runs — and Fedde is a right-hander who has already allowed fifteen home runs in fourteen starts this year, with an 8.2 percent barrel rate allowed that runs noticeably hotter than what Valdez is giving up on the other side. Both lineups hit in the same hitter-friendly Rate Field tonight. A price of plus-550 is asking you to believe this happens something like once every six or seven games; Torkelson has already cleared that bar four times in his last fifteen. The honest pushback is that Torkelson is 0-for-9 in his career against Fedde specifically. That is too small a sample to build a real case around, but it is the one data point that actually pits these two against each other, and I am not going to pretend it isn't there. Between a hitter on a genuine power run against right-handed pitching and a pitcher who has had trouble keeping the ball in the park all year, I am taking the long shot here instead of passing.

  ×

  Spencer Torkelson
  HR over 0.5

  +550 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Detroit Tigers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Torkelson is running as hot as anyone in this matchup right now. He has four home runs in his last fifteen games, a 1.005 OPS in September, and two homers in his last seven games alone. Almost all of his power this season comes against right-handed pitching — 21 of his 24 home runs — and Fedde is a right-hander who has already allowed fifteen home runs in fourteen starts this year, with an 8.2 percent barrel rate allowed that runs noticeably hotter than what Valdez is giving up on the other side. Both lineups hit in the same hitter-friendly Rate Field tonight. A price of plus-550 is asking you to believe this happens something like once every six or seven games; Torkelson has already cleared that bar four times in his last fifteen.

  The honest pushback is that Torkelson is 0-for-9 in his career against Fedde specifically. That is too small a sample to build a real case around, but it is the one data point that actually pits these two against each other, and I am not going to pretend it isn't there. Between a hitter on a genuine power run against right-handed pitching and a pitcher who has had trouble keeping the ball in the park all year, I am taking the long shot here instead of passing.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.