Tigers at White Sox

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  MAX CLARKHITS OVER 0.5

  MLBDetroit Tigers· -159

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Clark is priced at -159 to record a hit, needing to clear it once in what projects to four plate appearances leading off for Detroit. He's done exactly that in 12 of his last 15 games, riding a 10-for-25 week (.400) and a .326 mark over his last 15 days. He bats left-handed against David Sandlin, a rookie making just his fifth career start carrying a 5.64 ERA, who has allowed a .275 average and an .878 OPS to left-handed hitters this season -- five of the six home runs he's given up all year have come from that side of the plate. Sandlin's fastball and cutter have both gotten hit hard by opposing hitters in general this season, a .353 and .470 xwOBA respectively, and Clark gets four looks tonight at a pitcher who is only 69 at-bats into learning how to get lefties out at this level. Against me: Clark's own season splits actually run the other way in a vacuum -- he's hit .347 against left-handers and just .245 against right-handers, which makes Sandlin technically the tougher side of his own platoon. And Sandlin's last time out was his best start of the year, 5.2 innings of two-hit, no-walk ball on 70 pitches against St. Louis. If that pitcher shows up again, the hits dry up fast. But a hit in 12 of 15 games is close to a bankable rate at this price, and I'm not passing on it over one clean outing.

  ×

  Max Clark
  Hits over 0.5

  -159 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Detroit Tigers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Clark is priced at -159 to record a hit, needing to clear it once in what projects to four plate appearances leading off for Detroit. He's done exactly that in 12 of his last 15 games, riding a 10-for-25 week (.400) and a .326 mark over his last 15 days. He bats left-handed against David Sandlin, a rookie making just his fifth career start carrying a 5.64 ERA, who has allowed a .275 average and an .878 OPS to left-handed hitters this season -- five of the six home runs he's given up all year have come from that side of the plate. Sandlin's fastball and cutter have both gotten hit hard by opposing hitters in general this season, a .353 and .470 xwOBA respectively, and Clark gets four looks tonight at a pitcher who is only 69 at-bats into learning how to get lefties out at this level.

  Against me: Clark's own season splits actually run the other way in a vacuum -- he's hit .347 against left-handers and just .245 against right-handers, which makes Sandlin technically the tougher side of his own platoon. And Sandlin's last time out was his best start of the year, 5.2 innings of two-hit, no-walk ball on 70 pitches against St. Louis. If that pitcher shows up again, the hits dry up fast. But a hit in 12 of 15 games is close to a bankable rate at this price, and I'm not passing on it over one clean outing.

• GARY'S PICK

  TOMMY PHAMWALKS UNDER 0.5

  MLBChicago White Sox· -165

  LOST · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  The number is 0.5 walks, under, at -165. Pham has drawn a walk in just 2 of his last 12 games, and the season totals tell the same story at a smaller scale -- 2 walks in 22 plate appearances since he went down with the calf injury. He's two days removed from being activated off the injured list, hitting .050 with 10 strikeouts in 20 at-bats, the look of a hitter expanding the zone to find any kind of timing rather than sitting back and working a count. Batting second as the DH, he projects for only about 2.2 plate appearances tonight, which caps how many looks he even gets at drawing one. Andrew Sears has walked just 4 batters in 16.2 innings this season, a pitcher who has lived at the top of the zone with his fastball rather than pitch around anybody. Two low-walk profiles sharing a short game is exactly the setup this number wants. Against me: patience used to be Pham's calling card, and a rusty hitter fresh off a two-week absence can take pitches out of caution just as easily as he chases them out of frustration. If Sears loses the zone the way he did in stretches of his last outing, a free pass becomes the path of least resistance. But nothing in the last two weeks of Pham's swing supports that showing up tonight, and I'll take the price.

  ×

  Tommy Pham
  Walks under 0.5

  -165 · LOST · ACTUAL 1

  Chicago White Sox

  Read Gary’s Take

  The number is 0.5 walks, under, at -165. Pham has drawn a walk in just 2 of his last 12 games, and the season totals tell the same story at a smaller scale -- 2 walks in 22 plate appearances since he went down with the calf injury. He's two days removed from being activated off the injured list, hitting .050 with 10 strikeouts in 20 at-bats, the look of a hitter expanding the zone to find any kind of timing rather than sitting back and working a count. Batting second as the DH, he projects for only about 2.2 plate appearances tonight, which caps how many looks he even gets at drawing one. Andrew Sears has walked just 4 batters in 16.2 innings this season, a pitcher who has lived at the top of the zone with his fastball rather than pitch around anybody. Two low-walk profiles sharing a short game is exactly the setup this number wants.

  Against me: patience used to be Pham's calling card, and a rusty hitter fresh off a two-week absence can take pitches out of caution just as easily as he chases them out of frustration. If Sears loses the zone the way he did in stretches of his last outing, a free pass becomes the path of least resistance. But nothing in the last two weeks of Pham's swing supports that showing up tonight, and I'll take the price.

• THE LONG SHOT

  MUNETAKA MURAKAMIHR OVER 0.5

  MLBChicago White Sox· +475

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  This is a longshot swing at +475 on the player who gets more trips to the plate than anyone in this lineup -- 4.3 plate appearances a game hitting cleanup, with 32 home runs already this season. He hit one off Framber Valdez just last night, a three-run shot in the first inning, and he's cleared this same 0.5 line in 3 of his last 15 games even while his average has cratered to .125 over that stretch -- the power has stayed loud straight through the slump. Against left-handed pitching specifically, he's got 7 home runs in 124 at-bats this season, a rate that, stretched across his expected looks tonight, lines up close to what this price is actually asking for. Against me: in the aggregate, the platoon cuts the other way -- 25 of his 32 home runs have come against right-handers, an 8.4% rate per at-bat that's noticeably higher than his 5.65% mark against lefties like Sears, and he's a left-handed bat facing same-side pitching, traditionally the harder look. He's also whiffing at a brutal clip, 183 strikeouts in 420 at-bats, so tonight could just as easily end in three punchouts as a long fly ball. But he leads this lineup in chances, the power hasn't left him even as the average has, and the price leaves room for that raw pop to hit at a discount.

  ×

  Munetaka Murakami
  HR over 0.5

  +475 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Chicago White Sox

  Read Gary’s Take

  This is a longshot swing at +475 on the player who gets more trips to the plate than anyone in this lineup -- 4.3 plate appearances a game hitting cleanup, with 32 home runs already this season. He hit one off Framber Valdez just last night, a three-run shot in the first inning, and he's cleared this same 0.5 line in 3 of his last 15 games even while his average has cratered to .125 over that stretch -- the power has stayed loud straight through the slump. Against left-handed pitching specifically, he's got 7 home runs in 124 at-bats this season, a rate that, stretched across his expected looks tonight, lines up close to what this price is actually asking for.

  Against me: in the aggregate, the platoon cuts the other way -- 25 of his 32 home runs have come against right-handers, an 8.4% rate per at-bat that's noticeably higher than his 5.65% mark against lefties like Sears, and he's a left-handed bat facing same-side pitching, traditionally the harder look. He's also whiffing at a brutal clip, 183 strikeouts in 420 at-bats, so tonight could just as easily end in three punchouts as a long fly ball. But he leads this lineup in chances, the power hasn't left him even as the average has, and the price leaves room for that raw pop to hit at a discount.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.