It's win-or-go-home in the Bronx. The Red Sox send Sonny Gray to the mound to force a Game 3, and the Yankees hand the ball to Max Fried with a chance to close out the Wild Card Series at home. I'm on the Yankees, and it starts with who is harder to hit tonight. The ERAs look like a coin flip: 2.80 for Fried, 2.72 for Gray. The contact numbers don't. Fried carries a 2.51 xERA and allows 2.4% barrels and 29.8% hard contact. Gray's 3.87 xERA and 38.3% hard-hit rate say the market is paying for a shiny ERA on fragile footing. Fried's weaker side is right-handed hitters, and even they have only a .558 OPS against him. Boston has to use a right-leaning lineup that just lost Roman Anthony. Jahmai Jones (.206) and Nate Eaton (.160) fill two spots. Willson Contreras struck out three times in Game 1 after missing most of the final week. This club has a .607 OPS and 2.8 runs per game against lefty starters over its last 30, and went 7-for-74 with runners in scoring position over its last 10. The Yankees' side of the matchup has teeth too. Boone stacked eight lefty bats against Gray, whose four-seamer (.362 xwOBA) and cutter (.371) are the pitches that get hit, and the park plays at a 1.08 factor with a 314-foot porch. Ben Rice has two-homer games on 9/23 and in Game 1, plus a .961 OPS against right-handers. If Fried's pitch count climbs early (97 is his high since coming off the IL), Boone has Will Warren, Carlos Rodón and Ryan Yarbrough rested to bridge to David Bednar, who has four full days off. The best argument against me is real. Gray has gone 5+ innings in eight straight starts and has a 1.98 ERA in two starts against New York this year. Lefties, the side Boone is attacking with, have only a .653 OPS against him. If he hands a lead to Garrett Whitlock (1.72 ERA) and Aroldis Chapman (1.92), both on six full days off, Boston can steal this. But that path requires the weaker lineup to build a lead against the tougher pitcher first. If Gray stumbles early, the bridge to that back end is the same group that gave up eight runs in 3⅓ innings last night. At -136 I'm paying for the better arm and the deeper staff, and I'll take it.
It's win-or-go-home in the Bronx. The Red Sox send Sonny Gray to the mound to force a Game 3, and the Yankees hand the ball to Max Fried with a chance to close out the Wild Card Series at home. I'm on the Yankees, and it starts with who is harder to hit tonight. The ERAs look like a coin flip: 2.80 for Fried, 2.72 for Gray. The contact numbers don't. Fried carries a 2.51 xERA and allows 2.4% barrels and 29.8% hard contact. Gray's 3.87 xERA and 38.3% hard-hit rate say the market is paying for a shiny ERA on fragile footing. Fried's weaker side is right-handed hitters, and even they have only a .558 OPS against him. Boston has to use a right-leaning lineup that just lost Roman Anthony. Jahmai Jones (.206) and Nate Eaton (.160) fill two spots. Willson Contreras struck out three times in Game 1 after missing most of the final week. This club has a .607 OPS and 2.8 runs per game against lefty starters over its last 30, and went 7-for-74 with runners in scoring position over its last 10.
The Yankees' side of the matchup has teeth too. Boone stacked eight lefty bats against Gray, whose four-seamer (.362 xwOBA) and cutter (.371) are the pitches that get hit, and the park plays at a 1.08 factor with a 314-foot porch. Ben Rice has two-homer games on 9/23 and in Game 1, plus a .961 OPS against right-handers. If Fried's pitch count climbs early (97 is his high since coming off the IL), Boone has Will Warren, Carlos Rodón and Ryan Yarbrough rested to bridge to David Bednar, who has four full days off.
The best argument against me is real. Gray has gone 5+ innings in eight straight starts and has a 1.98 ERA in two starts against New York this year. Lefties, the side Boone is attacking with, have only a .653 OPS against him. If he hands a lead to Garrett Whitlock (1.72 ERA) and Aroldis Chapman (1.92), both on six full days off, Boston can steal this. But that path requires the weaker lineup to build a lead against the tougher pitcher first. If Gray stumbles early, the bridge to that back end is the same group that gave up eight runs in 3⅓ innings last night. At -136 I'm paying for the better arm and the deeper staff, and I'll take it.
Yankees Moneyline