Red Sox at Pirates
O/U 8 · RL Red Sox -1.5
Pirates ML+108
CONF 58%
WCashedFinal 4-8
The read
Friday night at PNC Park, two rookie arms under the lights and two clubs arriving off blowout wins. The river is quiet, the wind is light, and this feels like a game decided in the middle innings.
Bubba Chandler is the difference for me. His command has tightened, he has allowed five earned runs across his past three starts, and that 98.5 mph fastball can overpower a Boston lineup carrying a .705 OPS against right-handers. Pittsburgh also has its leverage bullpen fully rested after Thursday’s complete game.
Jake Bennett’s season numbers command respect, but his form is slipping: a 5.19 ERA with seven walks over his past three starts, while Boston continues to manage his workload. Pittsburgh can stack right-handed bats against him, and I trust the home side to manufacture enough traffic before getting into the softer part of Boston’s bullpen. At plus money, I’m backing Chandler and taking the Pirates to win outright.
Props on this game
4Jake BennettUNDER 4.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-132
LActual 6
Bennett has finished with four or fewer strikeouts in five of his past six starts, and his season rate of 55 strikeouts over 76 2/3 innings does not support this number. Pittsburgh has four hitters in tonight's lineup carrying recent whiff rates of 20% or lower, giving Bennett plenty of contact-oriented at-bats.
Boston has also been careful with his workload, while his recent starts have generally ended around the middle of the sixth. I see four strikeouts as the likeliest landing spot.
Bubba ChandlerOVER 15.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs+117
LActual 15
I’m buying Chandler’s improved efficiency at a plus-money price. He has recorded at least 16 outs in five of his past eight starts and just completed six scoreless innings on 85 pitches against the Mets. His command has stabilized, and his velocity gives him a direct path through a Boston lineup with a .705 OPS against right-handed pitching.
PNC Park and the light wind should help keep damage contained. I only need Chandler to get one out in the sixth, which is a fair ask given his current form.
Wilyer AbreuOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+550
LActual 0
Abreu is the hottest power bat on this field — six home runs in his last fifteen games and a slugging line that's carried Boston's lineup through this stretch. The matchup only sharpens it.
Bubba Chandler has been two different pitchers depending on which side of the plate you're standing on: he's held right-handers to a .600 OPS with just two homers allowed all year, but lefties have hit him for a .747 OPS and eight home runs. Abreu bats left, squares up velocity as well as anyone in this lineup, and he's carrying real recent hard contact into the box tonight.
PNC's short right-field line only helps a pull-side lefty swinging this well. Plus-550 on a hitter this hot against a pitcher this exploitable from the left side is a number I want.
Jarren DuranOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+700
LActual 0
The batting average has cooled for Duran over the last week, but the contact quality hasn't — he's still squaring up baseballs as well as anyone in this lineup and he's got three home runs over his last fifteen games to show for it. He walks into the same crack in Bubba Chandler that Abreu does: lefties have gone deep eight times against Chandler this season compared to just twice for right-handers, a split wide enough to build a bet around. Duran already brings pull-side thump, and PNC's tighter dimensions down the right-field line won't hurt him if he connects. Plus-700 for a hitter with this kind of recent power output against a pitcher this vulnerable to left-handed bats is worth taking.
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