Red Sox at Rays

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The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  IAN SEYMOURPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 3.5

  MLBTampa Bay Rays· -154

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 7

  GARY'S TAKE

  Seymour has allowed four or more hits in six straight starts and seven of his last eight, and his 4.6 hits allowed per start over the full season backs up the pattern rather than looking like a fluke stretch. The underlying quality supports it too — a 37.4 percent hard-hit rate and 10 percent barrel rate allowed, the profile of a pitcher who gives up loud contact even on nights when the strikeout total looks strong. He's also only averaging under 15 outs a start, so this volume of hits is showing up in shortened outings, not accumulating over deep ones. And he's back at Tropicana tonight, where he's actually been more hittable this year — a 5.02 ERA in nine home starts against a 3.75 mark on the road. The one blemish in this recent window was, fittingly, the last time he saw this Red Sox lineup, on July 18 — just two hits allowed, though with three earned runs in three innings, so it wasn't exactly clean. That was also before Boston added Adley Rutschman at the trade deadline, so it isn't quite the same lineup walking in tonight. Boston's offense has cooled some, averaging 3.3 runs a game over its last ten, but six straight starts clearing this number is the stronger signal to lean on. At -154 I need better than 60 percent, and a pitcher averaging 4.6 hits a start gets there without needing much to break right.

  ×

  Ian Seymour
  Pitcher Hits Allowed over 3.5

  -154 · CASHED · ACTUAL 7

  Tampa Bay Rays

  Read Gary’s Take

  Seymour has allowed four or more hits in six straight starts and seven of his last eight, and his 4.6 hits allowed per start over the full season backs up the pattern rather than looking like a fluke stretch. The underlying quality supports it too — a 37.4 percent hard-hit rate and 10 percent barrel rate allowed, the profile of a pitcher who gives up loud contact even on nights when the strikeout total looks strong. He's also only averaging under 15 outs a start, so this volume of hits is showing up in shortened outings, not accumulating over deep ones. And he's back at Tropicana tonight, where he's actually been more hittable this year — a 5.02 ERA in nine home starts against a 3.75 mark on the road.

  The one blemish in this recent window was, fittingly, the last time he saw this Red Sox lineup, on July 18 — just two hits allowed, though with three earned runs in three innings, so it wasn't exactly clean. That was also before Boston added Adley Rutschman at the trade deadline, so it isn't quite the same lineup walking in tonight. Boston's offense has cooled some, averaging 3.3 runs a game over its last ten, but six straight starts clearing this number is the stronger signal to lean on. At -154 I need better than 60 percent, and a pitcher averaging 4.6 hits a start gets there without needing much to break right.

• GARY'S PICK

  TREVOR STORYHITS OVER 0.5

  MLBBoston Red Sox· -145

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Story has hit safely in 14 of his last 15 games, and Thursday's go-ahead three-run homer off Jacob Latz was just the loudest note in a stretch where his bat looks nothing like a guy still shaking off sports hernia surgery. He's hitting .333 over his last week and .298 over his last two, and the matchup doesn't work against the streak the way it might for some of his teammates — his career average is actually a touch higher against lefties (.250) than righties (.238), so Seymour being a southpaw isn't a strike against him. He also sees more of the plate than nearly anyone in this Boston order right now, 4.2 plate appearances a game hitting fifth, which means more looks at clearing just half a hit. The honest counter: this is a hot stretch sitting on top of a .246 season average, and the one game he didn't get a hit in his last 15 is proof it isn't automatic. Tropicana is a pitcher-friendly building that knocks down offense across the board, dome and all, and he's never faced Seymour before so there's no personal history to lean on. But at -145 I only need to clear about 59 percent, and a hitter this locked in, seeing this many pitches a night, gets there.

  ×

  Trevor Story
  Hits over 0.5

  -145 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Boston Red Sox

  Read Gary’s Take

  Story has hit safely in 14 of his last 15 games, and Thursday's go-ahead three-run homer off Jacob Latz was just the loudest note in a stretch where his bat looks nothing like a guy still shaking off sports hernia surgery. He's hitting .333 over his last week and .298 over his last two, and the matchup doesn't work against the streak the way it might for some of his teammates — his career average is actually a touch higher against lefties (.250) than righties (.238), so Seymour being a southpaw isn't a strike against him. He also sees more of the plate than nearly anyone in this Boston order right now, 4.2 plate appearances a game hitting fifth, which means more looks at clearing just half a hit.

  The honest counter: this is a hot stretch sitting on top of a .246 season average, and the one game he didn't get a hit in his last 15 is proof it isn't automatic. Tropicana is a pitcher-friendly building that knocks down offense across the board, dome and all, and he's never faced Seymour before so there's no personal history to lean on. But at -145 I only need to clear about 59 percent, and a hitter this locked in, seeing this many pitches a night, gets there.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.