Mariners at Red Sox
O/U 7 · RL Red Sox -1.5 · Fenway Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Red Sox ML -118
- Published odds
- -118
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 9-6
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANDUEL · 13 moves| Market | Opened Sep 1 4:57 PM | Close Sep 1 9:10 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Mariners -1.5 (+160) | Mariners -7.5 (-144) | +6 |
| MONEYLINE | Mariners +100 | Mariners -20000 | −20100 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 1 4:57 PM | Mariners -1.5 (+160) | — | Mariners +100 · Red Sox -118 |
| Sep 1 6:10 PM | Mariners -1.5 (+164) | — | Mariners +100 · Red Sox -118 |
| Sep 1 7:10 PM | Mariners -1.5 (-132) | — | Mariners -225 · Red Sox +176 |
| Sep 1 7:17 PM | Mariners -4.5 (-136) | — | Mariners -1450 · Red Sox +700 |
| Sep 1 7:25 PM | Mariners -4.5 (-130) | — | Mariners -1400 · Red Sox +680 |
| Sep 1 7:40 PM | Mariners -6.5 (-120) | — | Mariners -6000 · Red Sox +1400 |
| Sep 1 7:55 PM | Mariners -5.5 (-180) | — | Mariners -6000 · Red Sox +1400 |
| Sep 1 8:08 PM | Mariners -6.5 (-172) | — | Mariners -20000 · Red Sox +2000 |
| Sep 1 8:16 PM | Mariners -6.5 (-180) | — | Mariners -20000 · Red Sox +2000 |
| Sep 1 8:19 PM | Mariners -8.5 (+102) | — | Mariners -20000 · Red Sox +2500 |
| Sep 1 8:27 PM | Mariners -7.5 (-146) | — | Mariners -50000 · Red Sox +3500 |
| Sep 1 8:40 PM | Mariners -7.5 (-188) | — | Mariners -20000 · Red Sox +2500 |
| Sep 1 8:48 PM | Mariners -7.5 (-174) | — | Mariners -20000 · Red Sox +2500 |
| CLOSESep 1 9:10 PM | Mariners -7.5 (-144) | — | Mariners -20000 · Red Sox +2500 |
The read
Overcast skies and an 8 mph wind coming in from right greet these teams after Monday’s 10-inning shootout. Seattle finally found its offense, yet Boston still erased an 8-5 deficit and won at Fenway.
Bryan Woo is the key to Seattle’s case, but his 5.96 ERA across 74.0 road innings is difficult to overlook. Seattle is 4-10 in his 14 road starts, and his allowed OPS is .712 against left-handed hitters compared with .594 against right-handed hitters. Boston starts three left-handed hitters and two switch-hitters, including Roman Anthony, Mickey Gasper and Wilyer Abreu in the first four spots.
Jedixson Paez is the risk. He has no 2026 MLB starts and is expected to work approximately 55–65 pitches, so Boston does not own the starting-pitcher advantage. I’m accepting that uncertainty because Boston has the better relief group behind him. The arms on tonight’s roster have a combined 2.80 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, compared with Seattle’s 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Garrett Whitlock did not pitch Monday, while Gabe Speier and Seranthony Domínguez have worked on consecutive days for Seattle.
Neither bullpen has performed well lately, but Boston also owns the stronger season-long foundation: 75-63 with a +85 run differential, versus Seattle at 64-74 with a -73 differential. At a manageable home price, I’m backing Boston’s lineup and late-inning options to overcome the uncertainty surrounding Paez.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAT CHECK
Cal Raleigh: 1.385 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.385Raleigh's 1.385 OPS says the power's finally matching the talent, and with 19 homers already this year, one extra-base hit tonight cashes this before it's even a conversation. I'm on him.
Mickey Gasper: 1.710 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.710Gasper's at a 1.710 OPS the last two weeks, and the hits prop is set at half a hit — that's asking for one clean swing all game. Easy lean.
COOLING OFF
Julio Rodriguez: .340 OPS in Last 15 Days
.340Julio's swing looks like it's searching right now, not just catching bad breaks — two weeks is too long to call it a rough series. He wasn't hot before this either, so I'm fading him until something looks different.
Cole Young: .354 OPS in Last 15 Days
.354He's not the only cold bat in that Seattle lineup right now, and two going quiet together usually points to something bigger than one guy's slump. I'd expect Boston's pitching to keep leaning on it.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Red Sox are 3-1 vs Mariners this season
3-1Four games is thin, and the last one was a 9-8 shootout decided late — that's not exactly Boston dominating. Better team on paper, but Seattle's shown enough thump to hang deep into this one at Fenway.
STREAK
SEA have lost 5 straight
L5Seattle’s five-game skid has included losses too decisive to dismiss as bad late-game variance. Now the Mariners must reverse that form on the road in Boston.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Julio Rodriguez
.706 OPSJulio Rodriguez has a modest .706 OPS and .244 average, but he bats third against struggling Jedixson Paez, whose xERA is 12.73. I’m taking that premium lineup spot and matchup. Rodriguez is a must-add wherever he is available.
Dominic Canzone
.809 OPSDominic Canzone owns an .809 OPS, bats second and gets struggling Jedixson Paez and his 12.73 xERA tonight. That combination makes him one of my strongest adds on this slate. Canzone is a must-add for anyone needing an outfielder or tonight’s matchup.
Bryan Woo
3.67 xERABook it — Woo's 4.36 ERA is lying to you. A 3.67 xERA says he's pitching much better than the boxscore shows, and a 9 K/9 with a tight 1.1 WHIP is the swing-and-miss, low-baserunner combo I want walking into a start against BOS. The ERA is the only number on this stat line I don't trust. Deep-league rosters should grab him first, but honestly I'd take Woo anywhere he's sitting unclaimed — the skill's already ahead of the results.
CUT LIST
Jedixson Paez
12.73 xERAThe case for cutting Paez is brutally simple: a 12.73 xERA says the 18.00 surface ERA is not just cosmetic damage. Starting tonight only adds urgency; I do not want another outing attached to my roster. CUT
Cal Raleigh
0.646 OPSThe .171 average is doing real damage, and a .646 OPS doesn’t make up for it. Batting fourth and remaining in tonight’s lineup are the only reasons this isn’t an automatic drop. CUT — Raleigh’s cleanup spot isn’t enough to excuse this season-long line.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 1, 2026 at 5:14 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKBRYAN WOOK'S OVER 4.5
Woo has cleared this number in eight consecutive starts, recording at least five strikeouts even when Philadelphia chased him after four innings last time out. His season rate is nearly one strikeout per inning, and Boston gives him enough swing-and-miss targets: Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Trevor Story and Connor Wong have each struck out in more than a quarter of their at-bats. The road splits create run-prevention concerns, but five strikeouts does not require a quality start. I like the hook at 4.5.
- GARY'S PICKBROCK RODDENHITS UNDER 0.5
Rodden is batting .150 with 14 strikeouts in 40 at-bats, including an 0-for-12 stretch over the last seven days. He is also hitting .120 against right-handed pitching and bats ninth, limiting his opportunities. Paez is a command-oriented starter with a changeup that can keep opposite-handed hitters off balance, and Boston can follow him with its strongest rested relievers. At nearly even money, I’m betting Rodden finishes without a hit.
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