Red Sox at Rangers

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The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  DANNY JANSENWALKS UNDER 0.5

  MLBTexas Rangers· -196

  LOST · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Jansen has drawn a walk in just one of his last fifteen games, and that isn't a random blip, it's who he's been at the plate all month. He hit .400 in September before tonight without needing a single free pass, and his six-for-twenty-two over the last fifteen days shows a hitter putting the bat on the ball early in counts instead of working pitchers deep. That's a real shift in approach from a catcher who actually carries a respectable walk rate over the full season. Sandoval is the complication here. He's issued twenty-seven walks in fifty-five innings this year, a real command issue that could hand Jansen a free pass almost by accident. But that risk has to run through a hitter who currently isn't looking to take pitches, he's looking to do damage, and damage-seeking hitters don't draw walks. I'm comfortable paying -196 for a trend this one-sided against a batter this locked into an aggressive approach right now.

  ×

  Danny Jansen
  Walks under 0.5

  -196 · LOST · ACTUAL 1

  Texas Rangers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Jansen has drawn a walk in just one of his last fifteen games, and that isn't a random blip, it's who he's been at the plate all month. He hit .400 in September before tonight without needing a single free pass, and his six-for-twenty-two over the last fifteen days shows a hitter putting the bat on the ball early in counts instead of working pitchers deep. That's a real shift in approach from a catcher who actually carries a respectable walk rate over the full season.

  Sandoval is the complication here. He's issued twenty-seven walks in fifty-five innings this year, a real command issue that could hand Jansen a free pass almost by accident. But that risk has to run through a hitter who currently isn't looking to take pitches, he's looking to do damage, and damage-seeking hitters don't draw walks. I'm comfortable paying -196 for a trend this one-sided against a batter this locked into an aggressive approach right now.

• GARY'S PICK

  TREVOR STORYHITS OVER 0.5

  MLBBoston Red Sox· -145

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Story is in the best form of his season, sixteen-for-forty-nine over his last fifteen days for a .327 mark, and he's collected a hit in thirteen of his last fifteen games. That's a hitter squaring up the baseball consistently, not riding one big night into a misleading streak. The swing risk is Jacob deGrom, who has been about as dominant as a pitcher can be lately, a 0.95 ERA over his last three starts with twenty-seven strikeouts against a single walk. He's also owned Story specifically over their careers, just two hits in eighteen at-bats. I don't dismiss that history, but it's a small sample against a hitter who has visibly retooled his swing this month, and even a pitcher limiting right-handed hitters to a .240 mark still gives up a hit most nights across four trips to the plate. At -145 I only need Story to keep doing what he's already been doing most games this month.

  ×

  Trevor Story
  Hits over 0.5

  -145 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Boston Red Sox

  Read Gary’s Take

  Story is in the best form of his season, sixteen-for-forty-nine over his last fifteen days for a .327 mark, and he's collected a hit in thirteen of his last fifteen games. That's a hitter squaring up the baseball consistently, not riding one big night into a misleading streak.

  The swing risk is Jacob deGrom, who has been about as dominant as a pitcher can be lately, a 0.95 ERA over his last three starts with twenty-seven strikeouts against a single walk. He's also owned Story specifically over their careers, just two hits in eighteen at-bats. I don't dismiss that history, but it's a small sample against a hitter who has visibly retooled his swing this month, and even a pitcher limiting right-handed hitters to a .240 mark still gives up a hit most nights across four trips to the plate. At -145 I only need Story to keep doing what he's already been doing most games this month.

• THE LONG SHOT

  MICKEY GASPERHR OVER 0.5

  MLBBoston Red Sox· +630

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Every home run Mickey Gasper has hit this season has come against a right-handed pitcher. Nine home runs, all of them against RHP, with a .948 OPS on that side of the plate versus a nearly empty .258 mark against lefties. Tonight he faces Jacob deGrom, a right-hander, which puts Gasper squarely in the version of his swing that actually produces power. He's also mid-surge. Three home runs in September on just thirty-three at-bats, coming off a six-homer August in only thirty at-bats, and he's gone deep in four of his last fifteen games. DeGrom's stuff is real, and this is still a longshot swing against one of the better arms in the league, but the platoon math and the current form point the same direction. At plus-six-thirty, I don't need this to land often to make it worth the swing.

  ×

  Mickey Gasper
  HR over 0.5

  +630 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Boston Red Sox

  Read Gary’s Take

  Every home run Mickey Gasper has hit this season has come against a right-handed pitcher. Nine home runs, all of them against RHP, with a .948 OPS on that side of the plate versus a nearly empty .258 mark against lefties. Tonight he faces Jacob deGrom, a right-hander, which puts Gasper squarely in the version of his swing that actually produces power.

  He's also mid-surge. Three home runs in September on just thirty-three at-bats, coming off a six-homer August in only thirty at-bats, and he's gone deep in four of his last fifteen games. DeGrom's stuff is real, and this is still a longshot swing against one of the better arms in the league, but the platoon math and the current form point the same direction. At plus-six-thirty, I don't need this to land often to make it worth the swing.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.