NBA · Wed, Nov 4 · 9:00 PM

Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets

O/U 230.5 · SPREAD Denver Nuggets -4.5 · Ball Arena

GARY'S PICK

NBAvs Raptors· -110

The Raptors roll into Ball Arena playing their third game in four nights, still without Kawhi Leonard and with Jakob Poeltl questionable. Denver is home and stung by Monday's loss to Portland, which Adelman pinned on effort. I'm laying the 4.5 with the Nuggets, though this is a modest edge rather than a big play. Toronto's 4-3 record flatters this version of the team. The Raptors are 2-3 and just +1 overall without Leonard. Take out the 30-point win over an Orlando team missing Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs, and they're 1-3 and -29. Their other win in that stretch came against a Clippers team missing six players. Even that took a 47-point fourth quarter after trailing 78-91, with Toronto shooting 31-48 at the line as two Clippers fouled out. Don't count on that kind of whistle tonight. The free-throw line is the heart of this bet. Toronto allows 32 attempts a game, while Denver takes 27.8 and makes 80.2%. Denver allows only 19.8, against Toronto's 29.6 at 74.4%. Blend those rates and Denver is up about five or six points at the line, which alone roughly covers the number. The matchup and schedule lean the same way. Walker Kessler went 6-6 and Isaiah Jackson 9-11 in the two games Poeltl missed, and now Toronto gets Nikola Jokic. Even if Poeltl plays, he's coming back from a shoulder injury and picked up five fouls in both Orlando games. Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Ja'Kobe Walter all played 32-plus minutes on both nights of the back-to-back in Los Angeles, and now they get altitude. Toronto is also hitting 31.5% from three to Denver's 37%. Jamal Murray's 27-51 over his last five should cool, but Jokic's 6-24 should warm up. This isn't a free ride. Denver is 1-2 at home, allowing 129 a game, and its only home win took overtime. Toronto forces 20.9 turnovers a game, and Jokic has 21 in his last five. The Raptors' 15.3 offensive rebounds a game also go right at a team that just gave up 21 to Portland. Toronto's last two fourth quarters, 47 and 43 points, mean a late backdoor cover is live. Keep an eye on Cameron Johnson, who's listed as probable even though one report has him out for weeks. If Johnson sits and Poeltl plays, I'd pass instead of backing Toronto.

Toronto's 4-3 record flatters this version of the team. The Raptors are 2-3 and just +1 overall without Leonard. Take out the 30-point win over an Orlando team missing Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs, and they're 1-3 and -29. Their other win in that stretch came against a Clippers team missing six players. Even that took a 47-point fourth quarter after trailing 78-91, with Toronto shooting 31-48 at the line as two Clippers fouled out.

Don't count on that kind of whistle tonight. The free-throw line is the heart of this bet. Toronto allows 32 attempts a game, while Denver takes 27.8 and makes 80.2%. Denver allows only 19.8, against Toronto's 29.6 at 74.4%. Blend those rates and Denver is up about five or six points at the line, which alone roughly covers the number.

The matchup and schedule lean the same way. Walker Kessler went 6-6 and Isaiah Jackson 9-11 in the two games Poeltl missed, and now Toronto gets Nikola Jokic. Even if Poeltl plays, he's coming back from a shoulder injury and picked up five fouls in both Orlando games. Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Ja'Kobe Walter all played 32-plus minutes on both nights of the back-to-back in Los Angeles, and now they get altitude. Toronto is also hitting 31.5% from three to Denver's 37%. Jamal Murray's 27-51 over his last five should cool, but Jokic's 6-24 should warm up.

This isn't a free ride. Denver is 1-2 at home, allowing 129 a game, and its only home win took overtime. Toronto forces 20.9 turnovers a game, and Jokic has 21 in his last five. The Raptors' 15.3 offensive rebounds a game also go right at a team that just gave up 21 to Portland. Toronto's last two fourth quarters, 47 and 43 points, mean a late backdoor cover is live.

Keep an eye on Cameron Johnson, who's listed as probable even though one report has him out for weeks. If Johnson sits and Poeltl plays, I'd pass instead of backing Toronto.

The pick & result

Published pick: Denver Nuggets -4.5 -110
Published odds: -110
Result: Won
Final score: 109-128

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Keep an eye on Cameron Johnson, who's listed as probable even though one report has him out for weeks. If Johnson sits and Poeltl plays, I'd pass instead of backing Toronto.

Injuries noted

Toronto Raptors: Nate Bittle (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Avulsion Fracture; Kawhi Leonard (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Injury Management; Jakob Poeltl (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Left Shoulder Bursitis

Denver Nuggets: Alpha Diallo (Prob) — Injury/Illness - Right Wrist Sprain; Cameron Johnson (Prob) — Injury/Illness - Lower Body Injury Management; Spencer Jones (Out) — Injury/Illness - Bilateral Hamstring Injury Management; Julian Strawther (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Sprain

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

DEN won last season's series 2-0
2-0
Denver won both meetings with Toronto last season, but the average margin was only 4.5 a game. The 2-0 record looks more one-sided than the scoring did. With just 2 meetings, it gives little reason to expect a blowout tonight on series history alone.

REPLACEMENT

Kawhi Leonard is OUT for TOR
OUT
Toronto is without Kawhi Leonard in Denver, listed as left knee injury management. Leonard has also completed a treatment on that knee, per today's reporting. This status can change from game to game, so check each night's report before carrying tonight's read into Toronto's next game.
Malachi Smith is OUT for TOR
OUT
Malachi Smith is listed out because of a two-way G League designation, with no injury given.
Spencer Jones is OUT for DEN
OUT
Jones is out under what the report calls bilateral hamstring injury management, and Julian Strawther is out too. That cuts into Denver's depth, so the useful step is checking who takes the extra wing minutes against Toronto.
Julian Strawther is OUT for DEN
OUT
Strawther is out with a left knee sprain diagnosed around Oct 17. With Spencer Jones out as well, Denver is short on depth tonight, so look at who absorbs the bench minutes.
Nate Bittle is OUT for TOR
OUT
Bittle is out with a right avulsion fracture and also missed Monday's game. Toronto's frontcourt depth is thinner in Denver, so check who covers his minutes before looking at role-player props.
Jakob Poeltl is Questionable for TOR
Questionable
Poeltl has left shoulder bursitis and was already questionable a day earlier. The tag gives no lean either way on whether he plays. For TOR at DEN, his status is the piece to confirm before leaning on any TOR rotation assumption.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored November 4, 2026 at 2:12 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, rebet, betparx, betrivers, ballybet, draftkings, fanatics, caesars, betmgm, betway.
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Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
JAMAL MURRAYPOINTS OVER 23.5
NBADenver Nuggets· -113
LOST · ACTUAL 14
Murray is carrying this Denver offense right now, with 42 against New Orleans, 39 in Phoenix and 35 against Portland. Those big nights have come from threes and free throws together, with 10 or more made free throws in all three, so the scoring doesn't rest on the jumper alone. Toronto is a good opponent for both. The Raptors have been fouling at a heavy rate, including 33 against Orlando and 26 in each game in Los Angeles, and they have let lead guards get loose from deep. Desmond Bane hit six threes for 28, and Luka Doncic hit eight threes and went 13 for 13 at the line for 45. Jokic is still searching for a shooting touch and Cameron Johnson is carrying a hamstring concern into this game, even listed as probable. Both point to more of the offense landing on Murray, who has played at least 36 minutes every night. Toronto also arrives on its third game in four nights, finishing a road swing at altitude. I expect Murray to get plenty of shots and trips to the line against a tired defense, and the price is fair for a player scoring like this.
Jamal Murray
Points over 23.5
-113 · LOST · ACTUAL 14
Denver Nuggets
Murray is carrying this Denver offense right now, with 42 against New Orleans, 39 in Phoenix and 35 against Portland. Those big nights have come from threes and free throws together, with 10 or more made free throws in all three, so the scoring doesn't rest on the jumper alone. Toronto is a good opponent for both. The Raptors have been fouling at a heavy rate, including 33 against Orlando and 26 in each game in Los Angeles, and they have let lead guards get loose from deep. Desmond Bane hit six threes for 28, and Luka Doncic hit eight threes and went 13 for 13 at the line for 45.
Jokic is still searching for a shooting touch and Cameron Johnson is carrying a hamstring concern into this game, even listed as probable. Both point to more of the offense landing on Murray, who has played at least 36 minutes every night. Toronto also arrives on its third game in four nights, finishing a road swing at altitude. I expect Murray to get plenty of shots and trips to the line against a tired defense, and the price is fair for a player scoring like this.
GARY'S PICK
SCOTTIE BARNESPOINTS OVER 22.5
NBAToronto Raptors· -112
LOST · ACTUAL 17
With Kawhi Leonard out and now beginning a return-to-play process in Toronto, the Raptors' half court runs through Barnes. The last four games went 28, 41, 29 and 22, and the 22 came on just 15 shots in a game Toronto won by getting to the line. The 0 for 12 in Minnesota is the scare on the résumé, but Barnes has answered it with a heavy workload, playing 36 or more minutes in each of the last three games. The Poeltl decision doesn't change much here. Barnes scored 28 and 41 with Poeltl active and 29 and 22 without. The matchup suits how Barnes scores. Barnes does the damage going downhill, and Denver has been soft at the rim, giving up 54 points in the paint to Portland, 50 to Phoenix and 70 to New Orleans, with only three blocks in each of the last two games. Adelman called out the effort after the Portland loss, so expect a sharper Denver team, and Denver's low foul count could trim Barnes' free throws. Even so, Toronto needs Barnes to create most of its offense, and that volume should clear a number this close to Barnes' recent floor.
Scottie Barnes
Points over 22.5
-112 · LOST · ACTUAL 17
Toronto Raptors
With Kawhi Leonard out and now beginning a return-to-play process in Toronto, the Raptors' half court runs through Barnes. The last four games went 28, 41, 29 and 22, and the 22 came on just 15 shots in a game Toronto won by getting to the line. The 0 for 12 in Minnesota is the scare on the résumé, but Barnes has answered it with a heavy workload, playing 36 or more minutes in each of the last three games. The Poeltl decision doesn't change much here. Barnes scored 28 and 41 with Poeltl active and 29 and 22 without.
The matchup suits how Barnes scores. Barnes does the damage going downhill, and Denver has been soft at the rim, giving up 54 points in the paint to Portland, 50 to Phoenix and 70 to New Orleans, with only three blocks in each of the last two games. Adelman called out the effort after the Portland loss, so expect a sharper Denver team, and Denver's low foul count could trim Barnes' free throws. Even so, Toronto needs Barnes to create most of its offense, and that volume should clear a number this close to Barnes' recent floor.

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