The Raptors roll into Ball Arena playing their third game in four nights, still without Kawhi Leonard and with Jakob Poeltl questionable. Denver is home and stung by Monday's loss to Portland, which Adelman pinned on effort. I'm laying the 4.5 with the Nuggets, though this is a modest edge rather than a big play. Toronto's 4-3 record flatters this version of the team. The Raptors are 2-3 and just +1 overall without Leonard. Take out the 30-point win over an Orlando team missing Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs, and they're 1-3 and -29. Their other win in that stretch came against a Clippers team missing six players. Even that took a 47-point fourth quarter after trailing 78-91, with Toronto shooting 31-48 at the line as two Clippers fouled out. Don't count on that kind of whistle tonight. The free-throw line is the heart of this bet. Toronto allows 32 attempts a game, while Denver takes 27.8 and makes 80.2%. Denver allows only 19.8, against Toronto's 29.6 at 74.4%. Blend those rates and Denver is up about five or six points at the line, which alone roughly covers the number. The matchup and schedule lean the same way. Walker Kessler went 6-6 and Isaiah Jackson 9-11 in the two games Poeltl missed, and now Toronto gets Nikola Jokic. Even if Poeltl plays, he's coming back from a shoulder injury and picked up five fouls in both Orlando games. Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Ja'Kobe Walter all played 32-plus minutes on both nights of the back-to-back in Los Angeles, and now they get altitude. Toronto is also hitting 31.5% from three to Denver's 37%. Jamal Murray's 27-51 over his last five should cool, but Jokic's 6-24 should warm up. This isn't a free ride. Denver is 1-2 at home, allowing 129 a game, and its only home win took overtime. Toronto forces 20.9 turnovers a game, and Jokic has 21 in his last five. The Raptors' 15.3 offensive rebounds a game also go right at a team that just gave up 21 to Portland. Toronto's last two fourth quarters, 47 and 43 points, mean a late backdoor cover is live. Keep an eye on Cameron Johnson, who's listed as probable even though one report has him out for weeks. If Johnson sits and Poeltl plays, I'd pass instead of backing Toronto.
The Raptors roll into Ball Arena playing their third game in four nights, still without Kawhi Leonard and with Jakob Poeltl questionable. Denver is home and stung by Monday's loss to Portland, which Adelman pinned on effort. I'm laying the 4.5 with the Nuggets, though this is a modest edge rather than a big play.
Toronto's 4-3 record flatters this version of the team. The Raptors are 2-3 and just +1 overall without Leonard. Take out the 30-point win over an Orlando team missing Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs, and they're 1-3 and -29. Their other win in that stretch came against a Clippers team missing six players. Even that took a 47-point fourth quarter after trailing 78-91, with Toronto shooting 31-48 at the line as two Clippers fouled out.
Don't count on that kind of whistle tonight. The free-throw line is the heart of this bet. Toronto allows 32 attempts a game, while Denver takes 27.8 and makes 80.2%. Denver allows only 19.8, against Toronto's 29.6 at 74.4%. Blend those rates and Denver is up about five or six points at the line, which alone roughly covers the number.
The matchup and schedule lean the same way. Walker Kessler went 6-6 and Isaiah Jackson 9-11 in the two games Poeltl missed, and now Toronto gets Nikola Jokic. Even if Poeltl plays, he's coming back from a shoulder injury and picked up five fouls in both Orlando games. Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Ja'Kobe Walter all played 32-plus minutes on both nights of the back-to-back in Los Angeles, and now they get altitude. Toronto is also hitting 31.5% from three to Denver's 37%. Jamal Murray's 27-51 over his last five should cool, but Jokic's 6-24 should warm up.
This isn't a free ride. Denver is 1-2 at home, allowing 129 a game, and its only home win took overtime. Toronto forces 20.9 turnovers a game, and Jokic has 21 in his last five. The Raptors' 15.3 offensive rebounds a game also go right at a team that just gave up 21 to Portland. Toronto's last two fourth quarters, 47 and 43 points, mean a late backdoor cover is live.
Keep an eye on Cameron Johnson, who's listed as probable even though one report has him out for weeks. If Johnson sits and Poeltl plays, I'd pass instead of backing Toronto.
Nuggets -4.5