Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors
O/U 237.5 · SPREAD Toronto Raptors -9.5 · Scotiabank Arena
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Chicago Bulls +10.5 -108
- Published odds
- -108
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 92-135
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
The lights come up at Scotiabank Arena for a home opener built around Kawhi Leonard's return, and a rebuilt Bulls team under Tiago Splitter walks into the noise. The problem with laying double digits here is that this number is basically last season's gap plus home court. Toronto finished around +3 in net rating and Chicago around -5, and 10.5 is where those baselines land on this floor. That price assumes the new Toronto is already at full strength, but the evidence for that is thin. No projected Raptors starter played more than four preseason games, Leonard logged 39 total minutes, and Toronto's preseason defense ranked 21st at 112.1 points allowed per 100 possessions. Take out the 50-point win over Knicks reserves, and Toronto was -22 across its other four exhibitions.
Chicago's measured profile also lines up with the documented soft spots in Toronto's defense. The Raptors were top five on that end last season, but their listed weaknesses were defensive rebounding, fouling, and the volume of shots allowed at the rim. Chicago scored 53.0 paint points per game last season (tied for 5th) and kept moving the ball in preseason with three straight 30-plus assist games. It also starts Jalen Smith, a 37.3% three-point shooter, at center. When the Bulls faced Phoenix, Memphis and Denver with fuller lineups, those three games were decided by a combined two points.
There are real risks here. Chicago turned it over 14.6 times a game last season against a defense that lives on turnovers, and two game-day illness scratches thin the guard rotation. But Toronto has to win by 11 or more to cover, and it has to do it in an opener with a group that has almost no shared minutes and a 35-year-old star whose preseason high was about 23 minutes. If Toronto builds a lead, the late minutes shift to the benches, and Chicago's bench has real preseason production: Leonard Miller averaged 16.4 points in 19.7 minutes on 62% shooting. Toronto is the better team and should win this game. I'm betting that the price is too high this early, and I'll take the 10.5.
Injuries noted
Chicago Bulls: Nic Claxton (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain; Jordan Hawkins (Out) — Injury/Illness - Gastrointestinal Illness; Dailyn Swain (Out) — Injury/Illness - Gastrointestinal Illness
Toronto Raptors: Nate Bittle (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Foot Avulsion Fracture
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
TOR won last season's series 3-0
3-0Toronto swept the three meetings last season, by 18.3 a game. Chicago comes in without Claxton, its starting center, and with Collins day-to-day, while Powell and Leonard are both on new teams. Three games is a small sample and rosters have changed, so last season's margin is a loose guide for tonight's spread.
REPLACEMENT
Nicolas Claxton is OUT for CHI
OUTClaxton, Chicago's starting center, is out for the first seven games. That leaves a hole in the middle against Toronto, and Zach Collins is day-to-day after missing the preseason, so the Bulls' frontcourt rotation is unsettled tonight.
Zach Collins is Day-To-Day for CHI
Day-To-DayCollins is day-to-day after missing the preseason, though he has practiced the past couple of days. With Claxton out, his status decides how thin Chicago is at center tonight.
SITUATIONAL
Season opener for both teams
OPENERBoth teams open tonight, so rest is even. Chicago's thin frontcourt is the bigger factor.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 21, 2026 at 5:43 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, betmgm, draftkings, betparx, betrivers, ballybet, caesars, fanatics, rebet, betway.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKJOSH GIDDEYASSISTS OVER 8.5
The ball runs through Josh Giddey tonight, and I'm getting even money on him clearing a number below what he averaged last season. He put up 9.1 assists a game in 2025-26, and the cast around him now finishes better than the one he had. Tiago Splitter's offense ran on movement all preseason, with three straight games of 30-plus assists, and the final tune-up against Minnesota produced 76 paint points and 15 dunks. Giddey has talked openly about adjusting his lob passing for this roster, and he has plenty of targets: Caleb Wilson, Matas Buzelis, Leonard Miller, and Jalen Smith popping to the arc as a stretch five.
The availability news also points his way. Jordan Hawkins and Dailyn Swain are both out sick, so Chicago's backcourt rotation is thinner and Tre Jones is the only other real organizer. That should keep Giddey on the floor and keep the ball in his hands. Toronto's defense is built to pressure, and the Raptors themselves admit that their gambling gives up shots at the rim. A defense that sends extra bodies at the ball leaves kick-outs and lobs behind it, and Giddey is the one who makes those reads. Norman Powell and Buddy Hield give him spot-up shooters on the wing to find when Toronto collapses.
What beats this: Toronto's hands. The Raptors make their living on deflections, and Giddey can get loose with the ball, so a sloppy night turns his potential assists into turnovers. Chicago's shooting is the other risk. The Bulls went 1-for-17 from three in a half against Minnesota, and assists disappear when the shots around him don't fall. A lopsided fourth quarter that sends him to the bench early would also cut into his total.
- GARY'S PICKKAWHI LEONARDPOINTS UNDER 22.5
This line assumes the Clippers version of Kawhi Leonard: the first option, around 32 minutes, scoring close to 28 a night. That isn't the player Toronto is likely to put on the floor in its opener. Leonard is 35 and played 39 total minutes this preseason, and his longest outing was about 23 minutes. The Raptors just committed $165 million to him over three years. I don't expect them to push him hard on night one of 82, so I'm planning for minutes in the high 20s and a role that is still being worked out.
The touches are also spread wider than they were in Los Angeles. Scottie Barnes is the hub, RJ Barrett scored close to 20 a game last season and has looked comfortable attacking downhill with Leonard pulling defenders away from him, and Immanuel Quickley needs shots too. The preseason talk about Leonard's fit focused on what he opens up for others: trail threes, weak-side help, and pushing in transition. That kind of role helps the team, but it doesn't guarantee 23 points. Chicago also has long, active forwards in Buzelis and the rookie Wilson to make his midrange looks harder than usual.
What beats this: Leonard is one of the most efficient scorers alive, and 23 points in 28 minutes is well within his range if the jumper is falling and he gets to the line. A close game is the other path to the over. If Chicago stays within reach, which is how I played the side, Toronto may need its closer in the fourth quarter and his minutes go up. Chicago's defense struggled last season, and that won't make his night any harder.
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