NBA · Wed, Nov 4 · 9:30 PM

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs

O/U 227.5 · SPREAD San Antonio Spurs -12.5 · Frost Bank Center

GARY'S PICK

NBA@ Spurs· -118

The Spurs host Dallas on ESPN tonight, 11 days after winning 122-106 in Dallas. This time the Mavericks are expected to have Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving against San Antonio for the first time this season, and that's why I'm taking the points. San Antonio is the better team and will probably win, but 12.5 asks for a lot. Dallas is 4-1 and +6.2 per game when Irving and Flagg both start, scoring 116.0 a night. In two games without Irving, it's 0-2 and -15.5, scoring 103.0. The Thunder and Rockets were shorthanded for two of those wins, so I discount that some, but Dallas also won by 4 at a Miami team with nobody out. The Spurs' numbers need a discount too. They're +9.3 per game overall and +8.6 at home, both short of this spread. All five wins came against depleted teams: Utah twice without Jaren Jackson Jr., Minnesota without Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert, Sacramento without Keegan Murray, and Dallas without Flagg and Irving. Oklahoma City and Houston, the two opponents closest to full strength, both won in San Antonio. Dallas's recent results also undersell this team. Without either star in the first meeting, the Mavericks trailed only 92-89 after three quarters. Monday's 15-point home loss came against a Kings team that had been 0-6, with Irving out, Dallas shooting 7-33 from three to Sacramento's 19-43, and Flagg going 3-19. This is no free ticket. Dallas's three losses came by 15, 16 and 18, all past this number. The frontcourt is the worst matchup: Dereck Lively II is out, Santi Aldama is doubtful, and Daniel Gafford hasn't topped 29 minutes in the last five games. Victor Wembanyama scored 43 against Minnesota, and the Spurs had 25 second-chance points in the first meeting. Max Christie is out, as is Sergio de Larrea, who scored 21 in that game. Flagg is 4-24 from three over the last four games, which means more drives at the league's blocks leader, and was seen grabbing at the shoulder late Monday, though no report describes a new problem. Irving is the swing. Irving isn't on the official report and most outlets expect a return, but one Nov. 4 piece says out, and any minutes limit is unconfirmed. If Irving is a late scratch, I'd pass. At -118, this needs to hit about 54% of the time to break even, and with Irving playing, I think it does.

San Antonio is the better team and will probably win, but 12.5 asks for a lot. Dallas is 4-1 and +6.2 per game when Irving and Flagg both start, scoring 116.0 a night. In two games without Irving, it's 0-2 and -15.5, scoring 103.0. The Thunder and Rockets were shorthanded for two of those wins, so I discount that some, but Dallas also won by 4 at a Miami team with nobody out.

The Spurs' numbers need a discount too. They're +9.3 per game overall and +8.6 at home, both short of this spread. All five wins came against depleted teams: Utah twice without Jaren Jackson Jr., Minnesota without Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert, Sacramento without Keegan Murray, and Dallas without Flagg and Irving. Oklahoma City and Houston, the two opponents closest to full strength, both won in San Antonio.

Dallas's recent results also undersell this team. Without either star in the first meeting, the Mavericks trailed only 92-89 after three quarters. Monday's 15-point home loss came against a Kings team that had been 0-6, with Irving out, Dallas shooting 7-33 from three to Sacramento's 19-43, and Flagg going 3-19.

This is no free ticket. Dallas's three losses came by 15, 16 and 18, all past this number. The frontcourt is the worst matchup: Dereck Lively II is out, Santi Aldama is doubtful, and Daniel Gafford hasn't topped 29 minutes in the last five games. Victor Wembanyama scored 43 against Minnesota, and the Spurs had 25 second-chance points in the first meeting. Max Christie is out, as is Sergio de Larrea, who scored 21 in that game. Flagg is 4-24 from three over the last four games, which means more drives at the league's blocks leader, and was seen grabbing at the shoulder late Monday, though no report describes a new problem.

Irving is the swing. Irving isn't on the official report and most outlets expect a return, but one Nov. 4 piece says out, and any minutes limit is unconfirmed. If Irving is a late scratch, I'd pass. At -118, this needs to hit about 54% of the time to break even, and with Irving playing, I think it does.

The pick & result

Published pick: Dallas Mavericks +12.5 -118
Published odds: -118
Result: Won
Final score: 111-112

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Dallas Mavericks: Santi Aldama (Doubtful) — Injury/Illness - Right Knee Surgery; Tarik Biberovic (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Heel Bursitis; Max Christie (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Hip Soreness / Tightness; Sergio de Larrea (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Knee Sprain; Dereck Lively II (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Foot Surgery

San Antonio Spurs: Tobias Harris (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Calf Strain; Jayden Quaintance (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Knee Surgery

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

SAS won last season's series 4-0
4-0
San Antonio won all 4 meetings last season by 19.3 a game, about as lopsided as a series gets. Tonight is the first meeting this season, so that number is a starting point and may not describe this version of either team. Absences on both sides, including Dereck Lively II for Dallas, change the picture further. Check whether the spread is leaning too hard on last season's margin.

REPLACEMENT

Sergio De Larrea is OUT for DAL
OUT
Dallas is without Sergio De Larrea in San Antonio because of a right knee sprain, an issue reported since Oct 30. Check the next injury report before assuming the same rotation holds for Dallas's following game.
Max Christie is OUT for DAL
OUT
Max Christie is out in San Antonio with right hip soreness and tightness, reported on Nov 3. Dallas's perimeter props are the place to check, and the next report will show whether this is short term.
Dereck Lively II is OUT for DAL
OUT
Lively is out following right foot surgery and was already listed out for Monday's game. Dallas also lacks Tarik Biberovic tonight, so depth is thin against a Spurs team playing well. Look at who gets the center minutes before pricing rebounds or interior props.
Jayden Quaintance is OUT for SAS
OUT
Quaintance is out after right knee surgery, and Oct 5 reporting said he had been around the team without playing. This is a long-running absence, so it should have little effect on tonight's line.
Tobias Harris is OUT for SAS
OUT
Harris is out with a left calf strain and was also listed out for Saturday's game. The Spurs have kept winning during this stretch, so the absence may matter less than it looks. Calf strains can linger, so check his status before later games.
Tarik Biberovic is OUT for DAL
OUT
Biberovic is out with right heel bursitis after also being listed out for Monday's game. Alongside Dereck Lively II's absence, it leaves Dallas with less depth for a tough road game in San Antonio.
Santi Aldama is Questionable for DAL
Questionable
Santi Aldama is questionable for Dallas in San Antonio, with the listing citing right knee surgery. Wait for the final status if a bet depends on Dallas's frontcourt minutes, because props can change quickly once the call comes.

STREAK

SAS has won 5 straight
W5
San Antonio has won 5 straight by 16.2 a game and sits 5-2 on its recent stretch, so these wins have been comfortable. Margins that large usually come down over time, and the sheet doesn't show the quality of the opponents. Against Dallas, expect the spread to reflect the run already, so the question for a bettor is whether the price asks for another blowout.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored November 4, 2026 at 2:12 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, ballybet, betparx, caesars, draftkings, rebet, betmgm, betway.
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Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
DEVIN VASSELL3-POINTERS UNDER 1.5
NBASan Antonio Spurs· +135
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0
This number is priced for the spot-up shooter Devin Vassell used to be, and I'm betting on the role Vassell has now. With Dylan Harper starting alongside Fox, Castle and Wembanyama, the shots have moved elsewhere. Vassell took one three in 34 minutes against Minnesota and two in 25 minutes against Utah, and even the bigger volume nights have come with few makes: 1 for 7 at Utah and 1 for 4 against this Dallas team in October. The 4 for 7 against Sacramento is the outlier. The game script helps too. San Antonio is laying 12.5 at home, and on Monday Vassell sat for good midway through the third with the game in hand. Another comfortable lead takes away the fourth quarter. The case for the over is a Dallas perimeter without Max Christie that just gave up 19 threes to Sacramento, but -148 already charges plenty for that. I'll take plus money the other way.
Devin Vassell
3-Pointers under 1.5
+135 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0
San Antonio Spurs
This number is priced for the spot-up shooter Devin Vassell used to be, and I'm betting on the role Vassell has now. With Dylan Harper starting alongside Fox, Castle and Wembanyama, the shots have moved elsewhere. Vassell took one three in 34 minutes against Minnesota and two in 25 minutes against Utah, and even the bigger volume nights have come with few makes: 1 for 7 at Utah and 1 for 4 against this Dallas team in October. The 4 for 7 against Sacramento is the outlier.
The game script helps too. San Antonio is laying 12.5 at home, and on Monday Vassell sat for good midway through the third with the game in hand. Another comfortable lead takes away the fourth quarter. The case for the over is a Dallas perimeter without Max Christie that just gave up 19 threes to Sacramento, but -148 already charges plenty for that. I'll take plus money the other way.
GARY'S PICK
COOPER FLAGGASSISTS OVER 5.5
NBADallas Mavericks· +100
LOST · ACTUAL 5
Cooper Flagg's passing has held up no matter how the rest of the night goes. Flagg shot 3 for 19 on Monday and still handed out 6. In Indiana, the shoulder ended Flagg's night before halftime, and there were already 6 on the sheet in 17 minutes. That short game also covers the blowout risk with Dallas getting 12.5, because Flagg doesn't need a full run of minutes to get there. Kyrie Irving's return is the obvious worry, but Irving started when Flagg posted 11 at Miami, 8 against Oklahoma City and 6 against Houston. The lone clunker was 2 at Houston, in a game that was gone by halftime. The matchup points the same way. Wembanyama's rim protection should force Flagg to give the ball up on drives, and Daniel Gafford has been finishing nearly everything inside, going 9 for 10 and 6 for 7 in the last two games. Dallas also piled up 29 assists against the Spurs in October without Flagg or Irving, so this defense will give up ball movement. With Christie and de Larrea out, the Mavericks have fewer ball handlers to share the creation. At even money, I want this over.
Cooper Flagg
Assists over 5.5
+100 · LOST · ACTUAL 5
Dallas Mavericks
Cooper Flagg's passing has held up no matter how the rest of the night goes. Flagg shot 3 for 19 on Monday and still handed out 6. In Indiana, the shoulder ended Flagg's night before halftime, and there were already 6 on the sheet in 17 minutes. That short game also covers the blowout risk with Dallas getting 12.5, because Flagg doesn't need a full run of minutes to get there.
Kyrie Irving's return is the obvious worry, but Irving started when Flagg posted 11 at Miami, 8 against Oklahoma City and 6 against Houston. The lone clunker was 2 at Houston, in a game that was gone by halftime.
The matchup points the same way. Wembanyama's rim protection should force Flagg to give the ball up on drives, and Daniel Gafford has been finishing nearly everything inside, going 9 for 10 and 6 for 7 in the last two games. Dallas also piled up 29 assists against the Spurs in October without Flagg or Irving, so this defense will give up ball movement. With Christie and de Larrea out, the Mavericks have fewer ball handlers to share the creation. At even money, I want this over.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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