The Spurs host Dallas on ESPN tonight, 11 days after winning 122-106 in Dallas. This time the Mavericks are expected to have Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving against San Antonio for the first time this season, and that's why I'm taking the points. San Antonio is the better team and will probably win, but 12.5 asks for a lot. Dallas is 4-1 and +6.2 per game when Irving and Flagg both start, scoring 116.0 a night. In two games without Irving, it's 0-2 and -15.5, scoring 103.0. The Thunder and Rockets were shorthanded for two of those wins, so I discount that some, but Dallas also won by 4 at a Miami team with nobody out. The Spurs' numbers need a discount too. They're +9.3 per game overall and +8.6 at home, both short of this spread. All five wins came against depleted teams: Utah twice without Jaren Jackson Jr., Minnesota without Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert, Sacramento without Keegan Murray, and Dallas without Flagg and Irving. Oklahoma City and Houston, the two opponents closest to full strength, both won in San Antonio. Dallas's recent results also undersell this team. Without either star in the first meeting, the Mavericks trailed only 92-89 after three quarters. Monday's 15-point home loss came against a Kings team that had been 0-6, with Irving out, Dallas shooting 7-33 from three to Sacramento's 19-43, and Flagg going 3-19. This is no free ticket. Dallas's three losses came by 15, 16 and 18, all past this number. The frontcourt is the worst matchup: Dereck Lively II is out, Santi Aldama is doubtful, and Daniel Gafford hasn't topped 29 minutes in the last five games. Victor Wembanyama scored 43 against Minnesota, and the Spurs had 25 second-chance points in the first meeting. Max Christie is out, as is Sergio de Larrea, who scored 21 in that game. Flagg is 4-24 from three over the last four games, which means more drives at the league's blocks leader, and was seen grabbing at the shoulder late Monday, though no report describes a new problem. Irving is the swing. Irving isn't on the official report and most outlets expect a return, but one Nov. 4 piece says out, and any minutes limit is unconfirmed. If Irving is a late scratch, I'd pass. At -118, this needs to hit about 54% of the time to break even, and with Irving playing, I think it does.
The Spurs host Dallas on ESPN tonight, 11 days after winning 122-106 in Dallas. This time the Mavericks are expected to have Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving against San Antonio for the first time this season, and that's why I'm taking the points.
San Antonio is the better team and will probably win, but 12.5 asks for a lot. Dallas is 4-1 and +6.2 per game when Irving and Flagg both start, scoring 116.0 a night. In two games without Irving, it's 0-2 and -15.5, scoring 103.0. The Thunder and Rockets were shorthanded for two of those wins, so I discount that some, but Dallas also won by 4 at a Miami team with nobody out.
The Spurs' numbers need a discount too. They're +9.3 per game overall and +8.6 at home, both short of this spread. All five wins came against depleted teams: Utah twice without Jaren Jackson Jr., Minnesota without Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert, Sacramento without Keegan Murray, and Dallas without Flagg and Irving. Oklahoma City and Houston, the two opponents closest to full strength, both won in San Antonio.
Dallas's recent results also undersell this team. Without either star in the first meeting, the Mavericks trailed only 92-89 after three quarters. Monday's 15-point home loss came against a Kings team that had been 0-6, with Irving out, Dallas shooting 7-33 from three to Sacramento's 19-43, and Flagg going 3-19.
This is no free ticket. Dallas's three losses came by 15, 16 and 18, all past this number. The frontcourt is the worst matchup: Dereck Lively II is out, Santi Aldama is doubtful, and Daniel Gafford hasn't topped 29 minutes in the last five games. Victor Wembanyama scored 43 against Minnesota, and the Spurs had 25 second-chance points in the first meeting. Max Christie is out, as is Sergio de Larrea, who scored 21 in that game. Flagg is 4-24 from three over the last four games, which means more drives at the league's blocks leader, and was seen grabbing at the shoulder late Monday, though no report describes a new problem.
Irving is the swing. Irving isn't on the official report and most outlets expect a return, but one Nov. 4 piece says out, and any minutes limit is unconfirmed. If Irving is a late scratch, I'd pass. At -118, this needs to hit about 54% of the time to break even, and with Irving playing, I think it does.
Mavericks +12.5