NBA · Sat, Oct 24 · 8:00 PM

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks

O/U 231.5 · SPREAD San Antonio Spurs -12.5 · American Airlines Center

GARY'S PICK

NBAvs Spurs· -110

Two teams on the second night of a back-to-back meet in Dallas's home opener, and the Spurs are laying 15.5 on the road. That number exists because Cooper Flagg is out and Kyrie Irving is doubtful, so the real question is whether 15.5 overcharges for those absences. I think it does, a little. Flagg is a full-game loss: 33 minutes and 32 points in Houston, and that role now goes to Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington and Zaccharie Risacher. Irving is different. Irving has played under a minutes restriction, 23:45 and 24:54, so that 33.6% scoring share came in about half a game. Those minutes go to Marcus Sasser, already a 24-to-27-minute regular. Price Irving like a full-game star and you're paying too much. What's left for Dallas is a real rotation with length: Washington, Marshall, Gafford, Risacher, Morez Johnson Jr. and Sasser. San Antonio's clearest edge is Victor Wembanyama against Gafford, Johnson and Moussa Cissé with Dereck Lively II out, and that's where a blowout would come from. It's real, and it's priced. Ignore the noise. The Spurs' 0-2 came against two 2-0 teams, one a four-point loss after 14 lead changes. Their 10-37 and 12-37 nights from three don't mean makes are coming. Dallas's 16-point win at Indiana came with the Pacers shooting 7-32 from three, and the 18-point loss in Houston came with 21 Dallas turnovers. Dallas has the rougher schedule, third game in four nights after a flight from Indianapolis, but that was baked in when the line opened. The one swing is Max Christie, questionable with a shin contusion after 38 minutes Friday. If Christie sits, Dallas's backup guard minutes go to Walter Clayton Jr. and Sergio de Larrea, and that's the game where the Spurs pull away. If Christie is ruled out, I'd pass rather than take the points. The Spurs should win this game. I just see the margin landing a bit short of 15.5. Small lean, small bet.

The pick & result

Published pick: Dallas Mavericks +15.5 -110
Published odds: -110
Result: Lost
Final score: 122-106

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

I think it does, a little. Flagg is a full-game loss: 33 minutes and 32 points in Houston, and that role now goes to Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington and Zaccharie Risacher. Irving is different. Irving has played under a minutes restriction, 23:45 and 24:54, so that 33.6% scoring share came in about half a game. Those minutes go to Marcus Sasser, already a 24-to-27-minute regular. Price Irving like a full-game star and you're paying too much.

What's left for Dallas is a real rotation with length: Washington, Marshall, Gafford, Risacher, Morez Johnson Jr. and Sasser. San Antonio's clearest edge is Victor Wembanyama against Gafford, Johnson and Moussa Cissé with Dereck Lively II out, and that's where a blowout would come from. It's real, and it's priced.

Ignore the noise. The Spurs' 0-2 came against two 2-0 teams, one a four-point loss after 14 lead changes. Their 10-37 and 12-37 nights from three don't mean makes are coming. Dallas's 16-point win at Indiana came with the Pacers shooting 7-32 from three, and the 18-point loss in Houston came with 21 Dallas turnovers. Dallas has the rougher schedule, third game in four nights after a flight from Indianapolis, but that was baked in when the line opened.

The one swing is Max Christie, questionable with a shin contusion after 38 minutes Friday. If Christie sits, Dallas's backup guard minutes go to Walter Clayton Jr. and Sergio de Larrea, and that's the game where the Spurs pull away. If Christie is ruled out, I'd pass rather than take the points.

The Spurs should win this game. I just see the margin landing a bit short of 15.5. Small lean, small bet.

Injuries noted

San Antonio Spurs: Tobias Harris (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Calf Strain; Jayden Quaintance (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Knee Surgery

Dallas Mavericks: Santi Aldama (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Knee Surgery; Tarik Biberovic (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Heel Bursitis; Max Christie (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Right Shin Contusion; Cooper Flagg (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Shoulder Sprain; Jett Howard (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Right Calf Strain; Kyrie Irving (Doubtful) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Injury Management; Morez Johnson Jr. (Prob) — Injury/Illness - Right Shin Splints; Dereck Lively II (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Foot Surgery; Caleb Martin (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Thumb Sprain; Zaccharie Risacher (Prob) — Injury/Illness - Right Hip Soreness

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

SAS won last season's series 4-0
4-0
San Antonio swept Dallas last season and won by 19.3 a game, which is a wide margin across four games. Rest is even, with both teams on a back-to-back. Dallas is without Dereck Lively II and has Santi Aldama and Tarik Biberovic day-to-day, while San Antonio is missing Tobias Harris and Jayden Quaintance. The bigger question is how many Dallas bodies make it to the floor.

REPLACEMENT

Dereck Lively II is OUT for DAL
OUT
Lively is still out following right foot surgery last December. With Santi Aldama also day-to-day, Dallas is short on size against San Antonio.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, rebet, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers, ballybet, betparx, betway.
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Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
NAJI MARSHALLASSISTS OVER 4.5
NBADallas Mavericks· -115
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 5
With Cooper Flagg out and Kyrie Irving doubtful, Dallas is missing its two best creators, and that work has to go to someone. Naji Marshall is the one who gets it. He handed out six assists in both games while sharing the ball with both of them. That includes Friday in Indiana, where Flagg had six of his own in 17 minutes before he left. Marshall started the second half in Flagg's spot, and tonight he starts the game in that role with fewer players competing for the ball. Marcus Sasser takes over at point guard, but Sasser looks to shoot: three assists Friday and one in Houston. That makes Marshall the one who runs the half court, works the pick and roll with Daniel Gafford, and kicks out to P.J. Washington and Zaccharie Risacher. Dallas won't get much at the rim against Victor Wembanyama, so its possessions will come from drives that pull the defense in and swing the ball out. That's how assists pile up. If Max Christie sits with the shin, Marshall handles the ball even more. The risk is Dallas going cold. A team missing Flagg and Irving on a back-to-back can miss open look after open look and waste good passes. A lopsided score could also send Marshall to the bench early. I don't see the margin getting that far out of hand, so I'll take him for five or more.
Naji Marshall
Assists over 4.5
-115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 5
Dallas Mavericks
With Cooper Flagg out and Kyrie Irving doubtful, Dallas is missing its two best creators, and that work has to go to someone. Naji Marshall is the one who gets it. He handed out six assists in both games while sharing the ball with both of them. That includes Friday in Indiana, where Flagg had six of his own in 17 minutes before he left. Marshall started the second half in Flagg's spot, and tonight he starts the game in that role with fewer players competing for the ball.
Marcus Sasser takes over at point guard, but Sasser looks to shoot: three assists Friday and one in Houston. That makes Marshall the one who runs the half court, works the pick and roll with Daniel Gafford, and kicks out to P.J. Washington and Zaccharie Risacher. Dallas won't get much at the rim against Victor Wembanyama, so its possessions will come from drives that pull the defense in and swing the ball out. That's how assists pile up. If Max Christie sits with the shin, Marshall handles the ball even more.
The risk is Dallas going cold. A team missing Flagg and Irving on a back-to-back can miss open look after open look and waste good passes. A lopsided score could also send Marshall to the bench early. I don't see the margin getting that far out of hand, so I'll take him for five or more.
GARY'S PICK
VICTOR WEMBANYAMAREBOUNDS OVER 11.5
NBASan Antonio Spurs· -115
LOST · ACTUAL 7
Victor Wembanyama grabbed 13 rebounds in both games, and he did it against Oklahoma City and Houston, two of the toughest frontcourts he'll face all year. Tonight he faces Daniel Gafford, Morez Johnson Jr. and Moussa Cissé, with Dereck Lively II out. Cooper Flagg's size on the wing is gone too. The bigger factor is the kind of shots Dallas will take. Without Flagg, and probably without Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks need Naji Marshall, Marcus Sasser and Zaccharie Risacher to create offense. Plenty of those attempts will be contested jumpers and floaters over a 7-foot-4 shot blocker. That means a lot of misses, and long rebounds on his side of the floor are his. San Antonio also missed at least 25 threes in each game, which gives him chances on the offensive glass as well. The risk is his minutes. Both teams are on a back-to-back, and if the Spurs lead by 25 in the third quarter, Wembanyama sits the fourth and finishes in the 20s. He played 32 and 34 minutes in the first two games. I expect this one to stay close enough to keep him around that, which is why I took Dallas with the points. At 32 minutes, a dozen rebounds is a normal night for him.
Victor Wembanyama
Rebounds over 11.5
-115 · LOST · ACTUAL 7
San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama grabbed 13 rebounds in both games, and he did it against Oklahoma City and Houston, two of the toughest frontcourts he'll face all year. Tonight he faces Daniel Gafford, Morez Johnson Jr. and Moussa Cissé, with Dereck Lively II out. Cooper Flagg's size on the wing is gone too.
The bigger factor is the kind of shots Dallas will take. Without Flagg, and probably without Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks need Naji Marshall, Marcus Sasser and Zaccharie Risacher to create offense. Plenty of those attempts will be contested jumpers and floaters over a 7-foot-4 shot blocker. That means a lot of misses, and long rebounds on his side of the floor are his. San Antonio also missed at least 25 threes in each game, which gives him chances on the offensive glass as well.
The risk is his minutes. Both teams are on a back-to-back, and if the Spurs lead by 25 in the third quarter, Wembanyama sits the fourth and finishes in the 20s. He played 32 and 34 minutes in the first two games. I expect this one to stay close enough to keep him around that, which is why I took Dallas with the points. At 32 minutes, a dozen rebounds is a normal night for him.

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