NBA · Wed, Nov 4 · 8:00 PM

Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans

O/U 234.5 · SPREAD New Orleans Pelicans -5.5 · Smoothie King Center

GARY'S PICK

NBAvs Jazz· -115

The Jazz roll into Smoothie King Center at 1-6, missing Jaren Jackson Jr. and coming off back-to-back 22-point losses. The Pelicans are 3-4 and have won three straight, with Dejounte Murray set to return. This game comes down to the paint. New Orleans averages 62.6 points in there and hasn't scored fewer than 48 in any game. Utah reached at least 46 in each of its first four games, then managed just 34, 28 and 36 in the three since Jackson got hurt. Zion Williamson is 41-of-60 from the field over the last five games, and Utah's frontcourt is thin, with Jackson and Jusuf Nurkic out and Mo Bamba questionable. Don't let Utah's 120-119 win over New Orleans last month fool you. The Jazz needed their home floor, 24 points from Jackson and a 15-point edge from three just to win by 1. Tonight they're on the road without Jackson. Utah trailed by at least 24 after three quarters in each of its last two games, and Keyonte George is 5-of-22 in that stretch. For the season, New Orleans is +1.7 per game and Utah is -11.9. Utah's schedule inflates that 13.6-point gap, since all six losses came against teams with winning records, but it's still well beyond 4.5. Trey Murphy III's downgrade to questionable looks ominous, but it doesn't sink the bet. Saddiq Bey averages 15.6 points to Murphy's 14.9, and Murray and Jordan Poole are expected back. This isn't a clean ticket. The Pelicans led after three quarters in three of their four losses, including 108-89 at Denver, and they blew a 124-115 lead at Memphis on Monday before winning in overtime. Only two of their seven games were decided by more than 4.5, against the 1-6 Kings and a Hawks team that shot 8-of-46 from three. Murray and Poole also rejoin a group that went 3-0 without them, and Monday's overtime pushed Murphy to 40 minutes and Jeremiah Fears to 38, while no Jazz player topped 33. Utah's way to cover is the offensive glass, where it grabbed 20 against the Lakers and 17 at San Antonio, plus a hot night from George. I still think the paint edge is too big, so I'm laying the points with New Orleans.

This game comes down to the paint. New Orleans averages 62.6 points in there and hasn't scored fewer than 48 in any game. Utah reached at least 46 in each of its first four games, then managed just 34, 28 and 36 in the three since Jackson got hurt. Zion Williamson is 41-of-60 from the field over the last five games, and Utah's frontcourt is thin, with Jackson and Jusuf Nurkic out and Mo Bamba questionable.

Don't let Utah's 120-119 win over New Orleans last month fool you. The Jazz needed their home floor, 24 points from Jackson and a 15-point edge from three just to win by 1. Tonight they're on the road without Jackson.

Utah trailed by at least 24 after three quarters in each of its last two games, and Keyonte George is 5-of-22 in that stretch. For the season, New Orleans is +1.7 per game and Utah is -11.9. Utah's schedule inflates that 13.6-point gap, since all six losses came against teams with winning records, but it's still well beyond 4.5.

Trey Murphy III's downgrade to questionable looks ominous, but it doesn't sink the bet. Saddiq Bey averages 15.6 points to Murphy's 14.9, and Murray and Jordan Poole are expected back.

This isn't a clean ticket. The Pelicans led after three quarters in three of their four losses, including 108-89 at Denver, and they blew a 124-115 lead at Memphis on Monday before winning in overtime. Only two of their seven games were decided by more than 4.5, against the 1-6 Kings and a Hawks team that shot 8-of-46 from three. Murray and Poole also rejoin a group that went 3-0 without them, and Monday's overtime pushed Murphy to 40 minutes and Jeremiah Fears to 38, while no Jazz player topped 33.

Utah's way to cover is the offensive glass, where it grabbed 20 against the Lakers and 17 at San Antonio, plus a hot night from George. I still think the paint edge is too big, so I'm laying the points with New Orleans.

The pick & result

Published pick: New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 -115
Published odds: -115
Result: Won
Final score: 113-120

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Trey Murphy III's downgrade to questionable looks ominous, but it doesn't sink the bet. Saddiq Bey averages 15.6 points to Murphy's 14.9, and Murray and Jordan Poole are expected back.

Injuries noted

Utah Jazz: Mo Bamba (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Right Ankle Sprain; Jaren Jackson Jr. (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right MCL Tear; Jusuf Nurkic (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right 2nd Plantar Plate Tear

New Orleans Pelicans: Yves Missi (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Contusion / Bone Bruise; Trey Murphy III (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Bilateral Patella Tendinopathy; Jordan Poole (Prob) — Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Tendinopathy / Tendinitis

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

NOP won last season's series 3-0
3-0
New Orleans didn't just sweep Utah last season, it won by 13.3 a game. That is only 3 meetings, and tonight is the first look at this season's versions. Use the series as a reason to study the matchup, then let current form and tonight's injury report carry more weight.

REPLACEMENT

Jaren Jackson Jr. is OUT for UTA
OUT
Utah plays New Orleans without Jaren Jackson Jr., who has a torn right MCL diagnosed in reporting on Oct 27. This looks like a longer absence, so Utah's frontcourt roles are worth tracking beyond tonight. The market has had time to adjust, so look at the props of whoever is absorbing those minutes.
Malik Dia is OUT for NOP
OUT
Malik Dia is listed out because of a two-way G League designation, with no injury given.
Jaron Pierre Jr. is OUT for NOP
OUT
Jaron Pierre Jr. is listed out because of a two-way G League designation, with no injury given.
Harrison Ingram is OUT for UTA
OUT
Harrison Ingram is listed out because of a two-way G League designation, with no injury given.
Yves Missi is OUT for NOP
OUT
Yves Missi is out with a left knee bone bruise, and Oct 30 reporting also had him missing a game. New Orleans has to cover those minutes against Utah, so check recent box scores for who has picked them up.
Jusuf Nurkic is OUT for UTA
OUT
Nurkic is out with a tear in his right foot's plantar plate. Utah is already on a losing run, so losing a big man hurts the depth, and rebounding and interior minutes are the place to look first against New Orleans.
Trey Alexander is OUT for UTA
OUT
Alexander is on a two-way G League assignment for this game, so this is more about roster status than a new injury. It should have little effect on tonight's price.
Mo Bamba is Questionable for UTA
Questionable
Bamba has a right ankle sprain and was already questionable a day earlier. His status is unresolved for UTA at NOP. If a UTA rotation angle depends on him, wait until he is confirmed in or out.

STREAK

UTA has lost 5 straight
L5
Utah has lost 5 straight by 12.8 a game and is 1-6 over its last 7, which means it has been losing early and often by double digits. That size of margin is hard to keep up over a long run, but the sample is too short to say how real it is. At New Orleans, compare the spread with the recent margin and be wary of paying extra just because the streak is ugly.
NOP has won 3 straight
W3
New Orleans has won 3 straight by 11.7 a game, but its last 7 are only 3-4. So the 3 wins are the whole winning record in that stretch, and the team lost the other 4 games. Three games is too few to call this a new level. Against Utah, be careful about paying for the streak without weighing the longer 3-4 record.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored November 4, 2026 at 2:12 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, rebet, draftkings, betparx, betrivers, ballybet, caesars, betmgm.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
JEREMIAH FEARSASSISTS UNDER 3.5
NBANew Orleans Pelicans· +105
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2
This number is priced off a stretch that ends tonight. Fears piled up 13, 7 and 7 assists over the last three games while running the offense with Dejounte Murray and Jordan Poole both gone, and those games came in 29 to 38 minutes. Murray is set to return and Poole is expected back, which takes the ball out of the rookie's hands in a hurry. Look at what Fears did with Murray on the floor to open the season: 1, 1, 2 and 3 assists in 21 to 24 minutes. Fears has earned a bigger role since then and the projected starting spot stays intact, but Murray and Poole will both be initiating, and Poole had 7 assists in 23 minutes at Denver. If Trey Murphy III sits, the extra run is expected to go to Herbert Jones and Saddiq Bey, so a Murphy scratch doesn't hand Fears the offense back. Getting plus money on the under here is a gift.
Jeremiah Fears
Assists under 3.5
+105 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2
New Orleans Pelicans
This number is priced off a stretch that ends tonight. Fears piled up 13, 7 and 7 assists over the last three games while running the offense with Dejounte Murray and Jordan Poole both gone, and those games came in 29 to 38 minutes. Murray is set to return and Poole is expected back, which takes the ball out of the rookie's hands in a hurry.
Look at what Fears did with Murray on the floor to open the season: 1, 1, 2 and 3 assists in 21 to 24 minutes. Fears has earned a bigger role since then and the projected starting spot stays intact, but Murray and Poole will both be initiating, and Poole had 7 assists in 23 minutes at Denver. If Trey Murphy III sits, the extra run is expected to go to Herbert Jones and Saddiq Bey, so a Murphy scratch doesn't hand Fears the offense back.
Getting plus money on the under here is a gift.
GARY'S PICK
ZION WILLIAMSONPOINTS OVER 20.5
NBANew Orleans Pelicans· -113
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 23
Utah's frontcourt is thin and this matchup sets up for Zion at the rim. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic are out, Mo Bamba is questionable with a sprained right ankle, and that leaves Jaxson Hayes and a patchwork group behind him. Zion already went for 23 on 8 of 12 shooting against this team with Jackson on the floor, and San Antonio just got 52 in the paint against Utah on Monday. The returning guards don't scare me off the number, because Zion scored 22, 23, 17 and 25 in the four games Murray played. Those guards should also feed Zion better entry passes and easier looks. A blowout is the main way this loses, since Zion finished with 15 in 30 minutes against Atlanta, but Utah played New Orleans to a one point game last month. Murphy's knees add another edge. The downgrade after 40 minutes on Monday could free up more shots, and Zion is the first place this offense will go to replace them.
Zion Williamson
Points over 20.5
-113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 23
New Orleans Pelicans
Utah's frontcourt is thin and this matchup sets up for Zion at the rim. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic are out, Mo Bamba is questionable with a sprained right ankle, and that leaves Jaxson Hayes and a patchwork group behind him.
Zion already went for 23 on 8 of 12 shooting against this team with Jackson on the floor, and San Antonio just got 52 in the paint against Utah on Monday. The returning guards don't scare me off the number, because Zion scored 22, 23, 17 and 25 in the four games Murray played. Those guards should also feed Zion better entry passes and easier looks.
A blowout is the main way this loses, since Zion finished with 15 in 30 minutes against Atlanta, but Utah played New Orleans to a one point game last month. Murphy's knees add another edge. The downgrade after 40 minutes on Monday could free up more shots, and Zion is the first place this offense will go to replace them.

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