Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies
O/U 229.5 · SPREAD Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 · FedExForum
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 -115
- Published odds
- -115
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 107-103
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Memphis comes home to FedExForum stung by its first loss of the season, a 135-134 overtime defeat to New Orleans, while Indiana gets Siakam, Nembhard and Nesmith back after all three sat Monday. Those returns make the Pacers better than the group that lost to Atlanta, but I still want the Grizzlies at -5.5.
The closest comparison for tonight's Pacers is ugly. Starting Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith, Oubre and Huff, with Haliburton and Zubac out, Indiana went 0-3 and lost by 5, 20 and 8, with two of those at home. Haliburton's absence is the big split: Indiana is 2-2 with Haliburton and 0-4 without, losing by 9.25 a game. Both wins also came with Zubac starting. Some of the losses have been bad ones too, since Brooklyn and Milwaukee are both 1-6 and each team's only win came against Indiana.
Memphis is +12.9 a game against Indiana's -3.9. That deserves a discount: four of the Grizzlies' seven games came against Utah and Sacramento, both 1-6, and 42.1% shooting from three won't hold. But halve that Memphis margin and the gap is still about 10 before home court. There are quality wins here too, by 21 at Portland, the only loss for a 5-1 team, and by 3 at Golden State despite 27 turnovers. The rebounding edge doesn't need hot shooting either: Memphis is +7.3 a game on the glass and Indiana is -6.0.
Here's how this loses. Memphis commits 25.7 fouls a game, and Edey fouled out in 19 minutes Monday as New Orleans scored 62 in the paint. Indiana averages about 51 paint points, and Stewart is the only backup center if Post sits. Indiana's starters should also be fresher than "game 3 in 4 nights" suggests, although reserves like Walker (45 minutes) and Smith (42) carried a heavy load Monday. And three of Memphis's seven games were decided by 5 or fewer, so a normal win may not be enough.
Zubac, Oubre and Toppin were all still questionable as of this afternoon. Zubac matters most, having not played since Oct 25, and could be on limited minutes. Even if all three suit up, I'm staying with Memphis, just at a smaller stake.
Injuries noted
Indiana Pacers: Johnny Furphy (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right ACL Repair / Surgery; Tyrese Haliburton (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain; T.J. McConnell (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Hamstring Strain; Kelly Oubre Jr. (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Left Calf Contusion; Ben Sheppard (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Meniscus Surgery; Obi Toppin (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Lumbar Strain; Ivica Zubac (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Sprain
Memphis Grizzlies: Scotty Pippen Jr. (Out) — Injury/Illness - Lumbar Disc Herniation; Quinten Post (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Right Ankle Sprain
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
MEM won last season's series 2-0
2-0Memphis beat Indiana twice last season by an average of 22 a game. With just 2 meetings, the size of that margin is the least reliable part and is likely to shrink as a guide. Tonight's lineups matter far more than a two-game series from last season.
REPLACEMENT
Tyrese Haliburton is OUT for IND
OUTTyrese Haliburton is out in Memphis with a left hamstring strain, and reporting on Oct 28 had already set a minimum absence. The news is known, so the better question is whether Indiana's ball handlers are priced for the extra work. Check the injury report for the return timeline before betting future games.
Scotty Pippen Jr. is OUT for MEM
OUTScotty Pippen Jr. misses Indiana's visit with a lumbar disc herniation, reported on Nov 3. Memphis's backcourt minutes are the place to look, and a back issue of this kind leaves the return date open.
T.J. McConnell is OUT for IND
OUTMcConnell is out with a right hamstring strain after also missing Monday's game. His absence takes away a backup ball handler on a team on a losing run, so look at how Indiana's guard minutes and assists get redistributed in Memphis.
Johnny Furphy is OUT for IND
OUTFurphy is out after right ACL surgery, though recent reporting had him practicing again, which is a sign of progress. He does not factor tonight, and a return is the thing to monitor in later games.
Ben Sheppard is OUT for IND
OUTSheppard is out after left meniscus surgery, with his coach addressing his status in reporting from Oct 28. Indiana is already short of bodies, so wing minutes in Memphis are the place to check.
Jalen Slawson is Questionable for IND
QuestionableSlawson's tag comes from a G League two-way designation, with no injury listed. It is a roster status item. On its own, it gives little reason to change a view on IND at MEM.
Kelly Oubre Jr. is Questionable for IND
QuestionableOubre is listed with a left calf contusion on the official report, while earlier reporting mentioned his knee, so the details have shifted. The status is still unsettled either way. Check the final report before betting an IND angle that assumes he plays.
Braden Smith is Questionable for IND
QuestionableSmith is listed under a G League two-way designation, with no injury attached. The tag is about roster status. It gives a bettor little to work with for IND at MEM.
Kobe Brown is Questionable for IND
QuestionableBrown is listed under a G League two-way designation, with no injury attached. The tag reflects roster status and says nothing about his health. There is little here to act on for IND at MEM without more information.
Ivica Zubac is Questionable for IND
QuestionableIvica Zubac is questionable for Indiana in Memphis with a left ankle sprain. Indiana's center minutes and rebounding props depend on the final status, so check it before betting that part of the game.
Quinten Post is Questionable for MEM
QuestionableQuinten Post is questionable for Memphis against Indiana with a right ankle sprain. Memphis's frontcourt props depend on the final status, so check it before committing.
Obi Toppin is Questionable for IND
QuestionableObi Toppin is questionable for Indiana in Memphis with a lumbar strain. Toppin's status affects Indiana's frontcourt minutes, so bets on those roles are safer after the final report.
STREAK
IND has lost 5 straight
L5Indiana has lost 5 in a row by an average of 9, with a 2-6 mark on the recent stretch. That is a clear losing run, though the margins are more modest than a typical blowout skid. The sample is short, and the sheet doesn't show the schedule behind it. At Memphis, a single-digit average gives more reason to look at the spread than to assume Indiana can't compete.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored November 4, 2026 at 2:12 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, rebet, betrivers, ballybet, betparx, fanatics, caesars, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKCEDRIC COWARDREBOUNDS OVER 6.5
I want Coward on the glass against a Pacers team that keeps getting beaten there. Milwaukee pulled down 61 rebounds against them, Miami had 48, and Atlanta grabbed 17 offensive boards on Monday. Zubac is the one big who could change that, and he is questionable after missing five straight games with a bad ankle. Even if he plays, I would expect his minutes to be managed.
The Memphis frontcourt also leaves boards for a wing to collect. Edey only plays about 20 minutes a night and picks up fouls quickly, including fouling out in 19 on Monday. Post may sit again, which would leave Stewart as the only backup, and Stewart has been pulling in just three to five a game. Coward had 11 at Utah when Edey managed only 3, 11 at Sacramento with Edey out, and 9 on Monday. He still got 7 in 23 minutes in the Sacramento blowout, so a lopsided game does not kill this. The price is a little steep, but I will pay it because a modest night still clears the number.
- GARY'S PICKANDREW NEMBHARDPOINTS REBOUNDS ASSISTS OVER 29.5
This is a bet on Nembhard's role. Haliburton is week-to-week with the hamstring and McConnell is still out, so the offense runs through him. Since Haliburton went down, Nembhard has put up 35 against Philadelphia, 33 in Miami and 30 against Brooklyn. With Haliburton active, he sat at 29, 23 and 18. Brooklyn is why I prefer the combined number to the assist line: he had only 4 assists that night, but his 23 points carried the total.
Memphis is a good spot for this. The Grizzlies played about 105 possessions in each of their last two home games and committed 26 and 25 fouls, and Nembhard gets to the line when teams foul like that. Acuff scored 38 on them Saturday, so lead guards can get theirs here. Nembhard also sat Monday for neck management and is off the report tonight, which gives him three days since his last game. Memphis is the favorite, but a bad score does not worry me much: he posted 33 in 30 minutes during a 20 point loss in Miami.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
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