Memphis comes home to FedExForum stung by its first loss of the season, a 135-134 overtime defeat to New Orleans, while Indiana gets Siakam, Nembhard and Nesmith back after all three sat Monday. Those returns make the Pacers better than the group that lost to Atlanta, but I still want the Grizzlies at -5.5. The closest comparison for tonight's Pacers is ugly. Starting Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith, Oubre and Huff, with Haliburton and Zubac out, Indiana went 0-3 and lost by 5, 20 and 8, with two of those at home. Haliburton's absence is the big split: Indiana is 2-2 with Haliburton and 0-4 without, losing by 9.25 a game. Both wins also came with Zubac starting. Some of the losses have been bad ones too, since Brooklyn and Milwaukee are both 1-6 and each team's only win came against Indiana. Memphis is +12.9 a game against Indiana's -3.9. That deserves a discount: four of the Grizzlies' seven games came against Utah and Sacramento, both 1-6, and 42.1% shooting from three won't hold. But halve that Memphis margin and the gap is still about 10 before home court. There are quality wins here too, by 21 at Portland, the only loss for a 5-1 team, and by 3 at Golden State despite 27 turnovers. The rebounding edge doesn't need hot shooting either: Memphis is +7.3 a game on the glass and Indiana is -6.0. Here's how this loses. Memphis commits 25.7 fouls a game, and Edey fouled out in 19 minutes Monday as New Orleans scored 62 in the paint. Indiana averages about 51 paint points, and Stewart is the only backup center if Post sits. Indiana's starters should also be fresher than "game 3 in 4 nights" suggests, although reserves like Walker (45 minutes) and Smith (42) carried a heavy load Monday. And three of Memphis's seven games were decided by 5 or fewer, so a normal win may not be enough. Zubac, Oubre and Toppin were all still questionable as of this afternoon. Zubac matters most, having not played since Oct 25, and could be on limited minutes. Even if all three suit up, I'm staying with Memphis, just at a smaller stake.
Memphis comes home to FedExForum stung by its first loss of the season, a 135-134 overtime defeat to New Orleans, while Indiana gets Siakam, Nembhard and Nesmith back after all three sat Monday. Those returns make the Pacers better than the group that lost to Atlanta, but I still want the Grizzlies at -5.5.
The closest comparison for tonight's Pacers is ugly. Starting Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith, Oubre and Huff, with Haliburton and Zubac out, Indiana went 0-3 and lost by 5, 20 and 8, with two of those at home. Haliburton's absence is the big split: Indiana is 2-2 with Haliburton and 0-4 without, losing by 9.25 a game. Both wins also came with Zubac starting. Some of the losses have been bad ones too, since Brooklyn and Milwaukee are both 1-6 and each team's only win came against Indiana.
Memphis is +12.9 a game against Indiana's -3.9. That deserves a discount: four of the Grizzlies' seven games came against Utah and Sacramento, both 1-6, and 42.1% shooting from three won't hold. But halve that Memphis margin and the gap is still about 10 before home court. There are quality wins here too, by 21 at Portland, the only loss for a 5-1 team, and by 3 at Golden State despite 27 turnovers. The rebounding edge doesn't need hot shooting either: Memphis is +7.3 a game on the glass and Indiana is -6.0.
Here's how this loses. Memphis commits 25.7 fouls a game, and Edey fouled out in 19 minutes Monday as New Orleans scored 62 in the paint. Indiana averages about 51 paint points, and Stewart is the only backup center if Post sits. Indiana's starters should also be fresher than "game 3 in 4 nights" suggests, although reserves like Walker (45 minutes) and Smith (42) carried a heavy load Monday. And three of Memphis's seven games were decided by 5 or fewer, so a normal win may not be enough.
Zubac, Oubre and Toppin were all still questionable as of this afternoon. Zubac matters most, having not played since Oct 25, and could be on limited minutes. Even if all three suit up, I'm staying with Memphis, just at a smaller stake.
Grizzlies -5.5