NBA · Mon, Nov 2 · 8:00 PM

New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies

O/U 233.5 · SPREAD Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 · FedExForum

GARY'S PICK

NBA@ Grizzlies· -110

Memphis comes home to FedExForum on Monday night at 6-0. New Orleans walks in at 2-4, with Dejounte Murray's status up in the air again. The record says lay the points. I'm taking the 5.5 with the Pelicans. Here's what that record hides. Memphis's margin is almost all three-point shooting. The Grizzlies are 96-of-231 from deep (41.6%), while opponents are 68-of-226 (30.1%) on similar volume. That gap is worth 84 points of a +91 season margin. Everything else adds up to just +7 across six games, and on the road it was flat or negative. Opponents missing that often is mostly luck, and 41.6% is tough to sustain. New Orleans' edge is sturdier. Outside of threes, the Pelicans are +59 over six games. They average 62.7 paint points and 30.5 free-throw attempts a night, and Memphis commits 25.8 fouls a game. That style travels. At Denver they were tied at the end of regulation after leading by 23, and they lost by 1 at Utah. They would have covered +5.5 in four of their six games. Turnovers are how this stays close. Memphis gives it away 16 times a game, including 7 and 6 from Cameron Boozer in two of them. The Pelicans average 13.7 steals, and Zion Williamson leads the league. Memphis's closest win came at Golden State, where it turned it over 27 times and needed a 17-0 run to survive. The injury news doesn't scare me off. New Orleans is 2-0 without Murray, and Jeremiah Fears scored 22 and 20 in those games on 18-of-28 shooting. Ty Jerome returns for Memphis but is 7-of-27 over the last two games played. That sends Cam Spencer, who had 13 assists and 0 turnovers Saturday, back to the bench. Scotty Pippen Jr. is doubtful and Quinten Post is questionable. The risks are real. Memphis takes about 10 more threes a game than New Orleans does. The Pelicans turn it over 18.7 times a night. Zach Edey is a problem for a frontcourt missing Yves Missi. If Memphis gets hot from deep, this one is over by halftime. At 5.5, though, the Pelicans are the side.

The pick & result

Published pick: New Orleans Pelicans +5.5 -110
Published odds: -110
Result: Won
Final score: 135-134

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Here's what that record hides. Memphis's margin is almost all three-point shooting. The Grizzlies are 96-of-231 from deep (41.6%), while opponents are 68-of-226 (30.1%) on similar volume. That gap is worth 84 points of a +91 season margin. Everything else adds up to just +7 across six games, and on the road it was flat or negative. Opponents missing that often is mostly luck, and 41.6% is tough to sustain.

New Orleans' edge is sturdier. Outside of threes, the Pelicans are +59 over six games. They average 62.7 paint points and 30.5 free-throw attempts a night, and Memphis commits 25.8 fouls a game. That style travels. At Denver they were tied at the end of regulation after leading by 23, and they lost by 1 at Utah. They would have covered +5.5 in four of their six games.

Turnovers are how this stays close. Memphis gives it away 16 times a game, including 7 and 6 from Cameron Boozer in two of them. The Pelicans average 13.7 steals, and Zion Williamson leads the league. Memphis's closest win came at Golden State, where it turned it over 27 times and needed a 17-0 run to survive.

The injury news doesn't scare me off. New Orleans is 2-0 without Murray, and Jeremiah Fears scored 22 and 20 in those games on 18-of-28 shooting. Ty Jerome returns for Memphis but is 7-of-27 over the last two games played. That sends Cam Spencer, who had 13 assists and 0 turnovers Saturday, back to the bench. Scotty Pippen Jr. is doubtful and Quinten Post is questionable.

The risks are real. Memphis takes about 10 more threes a game than New Orleans does. The Pelicans turn it over 18.7 times a night. Zach Edey is a problem for a frontcourt missing Yves Missi. If Memphis gets hot from deep, this one is over by halftime. At 5.5, though, the Pelicans are the side.

Injuries noted

New Orleans Pelicans: Yves Missi (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Contusion / Bone Bruise; Dejounte Murray (Questionable) — Personal Reasons; Jordan Poole (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Tendinopathy

Memphis Grizzlies: Scotty Pippen Jr. (Doubtful) — Injury/Illness - Low Back Soreness; Quinten Post (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Right Ankle Sprain

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

NOP and MEM split last season 2-2
2-2
New Orleans and Memphis split four games last season, 2-2. That says this matchup has been even, with no head to head edge. Lineup news and current form should decide your read.

REPLACEMENT

Yves Missi is OUT for NOP
OUT
Yves Missi is out for New Orleans at Memphis with a left knee bone bruise, and he missed time last week too. The Pelicans lose a rim-running big, which thins their frontcourt depth tonight.
Jordan Poole is OUT for NOP
OUT
Jordan Poole is out for New Orleans at Memphis with left ankle tendinopathy, ruled out a day earlier. The Pelicans lose a high-usage bench scorer, so their second unit needs points from somewhere else.
Scotty Pippen Jr. is OUT for MEM
OUT
Memphis is without Scotty Pippen Jr. against New Orleans with low back soreness after he was listed doubtful a day earlier. The Grizzlies lose a guard, but the Pelicans are missing Poole and Missi, so both sides are a little short.
Malik Dia is OUT for NOP
OUT
Malik Dia is with New Orleans' G League affiliate on a two-way deal. No betting impact.
Jaron Pierre Jr. is OUT for NOP
OUT
Jaron Pierre Jr. is with New Orleans' G League affiliate on a two-way deal. No betting impact.
Quinten Post is Questionable for MEM
Questionable
Post is questionable with a right ankle sprain. He is a stretch big for Memphis, so if he sits their frontcourt rotation changes. This game has no rest edge and last season's series split 2-2, so lineup news matters more than usual.

SITUATIONAL

Both sides on 2 days rest
2d both
New Orleans and Memphis both have two days of rest, so there is no schedule edge. Lineup news, including Post's ankle, matters more here.

STREAK

MEM has won 6 straight
W6
Memphis Grizzlies has won 6 straight, winning by 15.2 a game over the run; 6-0 across the last 6.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 29, 2026 at 4:20 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, rebet, betrivers, ballybet, betparx, caesars, fanatics, betmgm, betway.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
CEDRIC COWARDREBOUNDS OVER 6.5
NBAMemphis Grizzlies· +105
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 9
Getting plus money on Coward's rebounds looks like a mispriced line to me. The lowest board total he's posted all season is seven, and that includes Saturday, when he played only 23 minutes and sat for good late in the third quarter of a blowout. He's grabbed 11 twice. This is a wing who crashes, and the market has him priced like a coin flip. The matchup helps him. New Orleans plays fast, with possession counts running well past 100 most nights, which means more shots and more misses to chase. The Pelicans have been brutal from three, going 7 of 30 against Denver and 7 of 17 against Atlanta, and long misses from deep land on the wings, right where Coward lives. Memphis also keeps Edey to about 20 minutes a night, so Coward spends a lot of his floor time in smaller lineups where the glass gets shared among more hands and he's often the biggest body near the ball. The real risk is fouls. He's picked up five in three different games. Even in those games he still cleared this number, and playing at home after a day off should give him a full run. The over at +105 is my second card.
Cedric Coward
Rebounds over 6.5
+105 · CASHED · ACTUAL 9
Memphis Grizzlies
Getting plus money on Coward's rebounds looks like a mispriced line to me. The lowest board total he's posted all season is seven, and that includes Saturday, when he played only 23 minutes and sat for good late in the third quarter of a blowout. He's grabbed 11 twice. This is a wing who crashes, and the market has him priced like a coin flip.
The matchup helps him. New Orleans plays fast, with possession counts running well past 100 most nights, which means more shots and more misses to chase. The Pelicans have been brutal from three, going 7 of 30 against Denver and 7 of 17 against Atlanta, and long misses from deep land on the wings, right where Coward lives. Memphis also keeps Edey to about 20 minutes a night, so Coward spends a lot of his floor time in smaller lineups where the glass gets shared among more hands and he's often the biggest body near the ball.
The real risk is fouls. He's picked up five in three different games. Even in those games he still cleared this number, and playing at home after a day off should give him a full run. The over at +105 is my second card.
GARY'S PICK
TY JEROMEPOINTS UNDER 22.5
NBAMemphis Grizzlies· -124
LOST · ACTUAL 40
This number is still pricing in Jerome's opening week, when he dropped 45 on Utah and followed with 28 and 31. The two games right before he sat were a different player. He went 3 of 12 at Portland and 4 of 15 at Utah, and his outside shot has been cold for most of the young season. Now he comes back from upper back soreness that first showed up an hour before tip in Portland, and he played through it then. A guard easing back from a sore back is the last guy I want to lay a 23 point number on. The Memphis bench gives Iisalo every excuse to manage him. The reserves put up 81 on Saturday, Isaiah Stewart has scored 18 and 24 in his last two, GG Jackson can't miss, and Cam Spencer just ran the offense with 13 assists and no turnovers. Coward said it out loud: these guys deserve starter minutes. Jerome has topped out around 32 minutes all year, and Memphis keeps turning games into blowouts by the fourth quarter. New Orleans is also a bad matchup for a guard who needs volume. Zion leads the league in steals, the Pelicans have been swarming passing lanes in both wins, and if Murray sits again Herb Jones starts, which puts one of the best perimeter defenders in the league on Jerome's hip. Unless he lives at the free throw line again, he needs a hot shooting night to get there, and the recent form says that isn't the likely script. I'll take the under.
Ty Jerome
Points under 22.5
-124 · LOST · ACTUAL 40
Memphis Grizzlies
This number is still pricing in Jerome's opening week, when he dropped 45 on Utah and followed with 28 and 31. The two games right before he sat were a different player. He went 3 of 12 at Portland and 4 of 15 at Utah, and his outside shot has been cold for most of the young season. Now he comes back from upper back soreness that first showed up an hour before tip in Portland, and he played through it then. A guard easing back from a sore back is the last guy I want to lay a 23 point number on.
The Memphis bench gives Iisalo every excuse to manage him. The reserves put up 81 on Saturday, Isaiah Stewart has scored 18 and 24 in his last two, GG Jackson can't miss, and Cam Spencer just ran the offense with 13 assists and no turnovers. Coward said it out loud: these guys deserve starter minutes. Jerome has topped out around 32 minutes all year, and Memphis keeps turning games into blowouts by the fourth quarter.
New Orleans is also a bad matchup for a guard who needs volume. Zion leads the league in steals, the Pelicans have been swarming passing lanes in both wins, and if Murray sits again Herb Jones starts, which puts one of the best perimeter defenders in the league on Jerome's hip. Unless he lives at the free throw line again, he needs a hot shooting night to get there, and the recent form says that isn't the likely script. I'll take the under.

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