Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies
O/U 231.5 · SPREAD Memphis Grizzlies -9.5 · FedExForum
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Memphis Grizzlies -9.5 -105
- Published odds
- -105
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 105-136
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
The winless Kings arrive at FedExForum on Halloween night to face a 5-0 Memphis team playing its first home game since opening night. The Grizzlies are laying 9.5, and I'm laying it with them.
Sacramento has lost by double digits almost every time out. The Kings lose by 16.6 points on average, and four of their five losses came by 10 or more. A 1-4 Pelicans team on the second night of a back-to-back beat them by 12, and the 1-4 Clippers won by 25. Portland beat the Kings by 8 in Sacramento, then lost to Memphis by 21 in Portland two nights ago.
The first meeting undersells the gap. Memphis won 123-112 in Sacramento without Zach Edey, while Cameron Boozer shot 5-21 and the team went 42-96. The Grizzlies still won the glass 56-44 and second-chance points 30-21. It was a five-point game with five minutes left, and Memphis closed it out. Tonight they're home and Edey is back.
The matchup points the same way. Memphis leads the league at 50.8 rebounds a game, while Sacramento ranks 26th at 41.2. The Kings are without Keegan Murray, Dylan Cardwell and Maxime Raynaud, so Precious Achiuwa is playing center. From three, the Kings are 51-167 (30.5%) and Memphis is 77-193 (39.9%), about five more made threes a night. Sacramento has been outscored by 76 across the second and third quarters this season, about 15 a game. Those are the minutes where Cam Spencer, Isaiah Stewart, Jerami Grant and GG Jackson give Memphis its edge. The Kings' starters also logged 41, 41, 40, 39 and 37 minutes Thursday in a 25-turnover loss.
Now the risks. Ty Jerome has scored 129 points in five games, including 31 on 14-14 free throws in the first meeting. Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. are both questionable with back soreness. Jerome played through the same issue at Portland and went 3-12, and Memphis still won by 21. If both sit, Spencer starts and Memphis's edge shrinks. The Kings have won or tied three of five fourth quarters, and Memphis spreads its minutes, so a big lead can shrink late. This is also Memphis's first home game after a four-game road trip that ended with a late tip in Portland.
Rebounding, shooting and depth all favor Memphis. Lay the points, and check Jerome's status near tip.
Injuries noted
Sacramento Kings: Dylan Cardwell (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Calf Strain; Keegan Murray (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Capsulitis; Maxime Raynaud (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Patella Subluxation; Ben Simmons (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Achilles Tendon Repair / Surgery
Memphis Grizzlies: Ty Jerome (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Upper Back Soreness; Scotty Pippen Jr. (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Low Back Soreness; Quinten Post (Doubtful) — Injury/Illness - Right Ankle Sprain
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
REPLACEMENT
Sean Pedulla is OUT for SAC
OUTSean Pedulla is out for Sacramento on a G League two-way assignment. This has little effect on tonight's rotation.
STREAK
MEM has won 5 straight
W5Memphis is 5-0 and has won those games by 12 points a game on average. Five games is the whole sample, so this is a hot start rather than a long run of form. A margin like that tends to push spreads up for the next opponent. The useful question tonight is whether Memphis keeps winning by double digits, since the number will likely price that in.
SAC has lost 5 straight
L5Sacramento is 0-5 and has lost those games by 16.6 points on average. That is a team getting beaten badly, though five games is a small sample this early. Big losing margins usually mean the books already set wide spreads against them, so the price on Sacramento matters more than the streak itself.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, rebet, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, ballybet, betparx, betrivers, fanatics, betway.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKCAMERON BOOZERREBOUNDS OVER 8.5
I'm getting plus money on the best rebounding team in the league facing one of the worst, with the Kings' frontcourt about as thin as it can get. Keegan Murray, Dylan Cardwell and Maxime Raynaud are all out, so Sacramento is starting Precious Achiuwa next to Domantas Sabonis, with Jonathan Mogbo and very little behind them. When these teams met six days ago, Memphis won the glass 56 to 44 with 19 offensive boards, and Boozer pulled down 11 while shooting 5 for 21. Even on a bad shooting night he cleaned up.
Boozer has double digit rebounds in four of his five games. The one miss was a tight game at Utah. Zach Edey is back, but Edey only plays about 20 minutes a night, and with Quinten Post doubtful, Boozer will spend long stretches as one of the biggest Grizzlies on the floor. The Kings also give up a steady supply of long misses: they take a lot of threes and don't make many, and those rebounds bounce out to the forwards.
The obvious worry is a blowout cutting his minutes. He played 28 minutes in the Portland rout and still finished with 12 boards and a triple double. At +114, I'll take him to get there again.
- GARY'S PICKZACH LAVINEPOINTS OVER 21.5
LaVine is the one constant on an 0-5 team. He's leading the Kings at 26 a night, and he's cleared this number in four of five games. His one miss was a 21 point night at New Orleans. With Murray out, the shot distribution has narrowed to LaVine, Darius Acuff Jr. and De'Andre Hunter, and LaVine has seen 15 or more shots most nights.
The matchup is where I like this most. He hung 37 on Memphis last Sunday, going 13 for 25 and 8 for 8 at the line. The Grizzlies foul a lot, with 29 fouls in two of their last three games. LaVine has gone to the line in every game this season and has barely missed. That free throw floor keeps him alive on nights the jumper is off.
Memphis's backcourt situation helps too. Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. are both questionable with back problems. If either one sits or plays at less than full speed, the point of attack defense gets thinner, and that matters most against a scorer like LaVine.
A lopsided game is the risk, since the spread is nearly double digits. Even so, he played 31 minutes in the 27 point loss in San Antonio and still scored 22 on ten shots. The Kings are not resting their best scorer, so I'm on the over at a fair price.
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