Minnesota walks into Toyota Center tonight without Anthony Edwards, facing a 7-1 Rockets team that hasn't lost at home. The Wolves have held up well since Edwards went down, but I think this number still sits a little short of the real gap between these teams. Start with who each team has played. Houston is winning by 12.9 points a game against opponents who are 30-16 in their other games, counting Dallas and Atlanta twice. Minnesota is +5.75 per game without Edwards, but against teams that are 10-15 in their other games. The Wolves are 2-2 in that stretch, beating the 1-6 Clippers and 1-6 Bucks and losing to Golden State and San Antonio, the two winning teams they faced. At home, Houston is 4-0 with wins by 10, 16, 18 and 21. Those margins are a bit flattered, since Oklahoma City was badly short-handed and Boston was on a back-to-back without Paul George, but the Rockets took care of business every time. Minnesota's offense leans hard on LaMelo Ball right now. Ball scored 34 and 24 in the two wins without Edwards, then 10 and 8 in the two losses, and fouls have been a problem too: disqualified at San Antonio, 5 fouls against Golden State. With Terrence Shannon Jr. also out, there's little shot creation behind Ball and Ayo Dosunmu. The Wolves are firing 41.25 threes a game without Edwards and making 35.2%, while Houston has held opponents to 29.9%, and nobody has made more than 13 against them. Some of that is luck, but it's the shot Minnesota relies on. This isn't a free ride. With Clint Capela and Steven Adams out, Oscar Tshiebwe is the backup center and played only 7 minutes Monday. Minnesota averages 14.75 offensive rebounds, and Boston just beat Houston 13-9 on the offensive glass. The Wolves are also hard to blow out: only one of their three losses was by more than 7, and that came at San Antonio with Rudy Gobert out and Ball disqualified. Houston's slow pace, about 97 possessions a game, makes a margin harder to build, and the Rockets let a 117-95 lead over Atlanta shrink to a 120-110 final. I'm not buying the Kevin Durant shot-volume noise, since Houston beat Boston by 16 with Durant shooting 5-6. Rest is even, with both teams on one day off. It's only eight games of evidence, so this is a measured play, but I'll lay the 7.5 with Houston at home.
Minnesota walks into Toyota Center tonight without Anthony Edwards, facing a 7-1 Rockets team that hasn't lost at home. The Wolves have held up well since Edwards went down, but I think this number still sits a little short of the real gap between these teams.
Start with who each team has played. Houston is winning by 12.9 points a game against opponents who are 30-16 in their other games, counting Dallas and Atlanta twice. Minnesota is +5.75 per game without Edwards, but against teams that are 10-15 in their other games. The Wolves are 2-2 in that stretch, beating the 1-6 Clippers and 1-6 Bucks and losing to Golden State and San Antonio, the two winning teams they faced.
At home, Houston is 4-0 with wins by 10, 16, 18 and 21. Those margins are a bit flattered, since Oklahoma City was badly short-handed and Boston was on a back-to-back without Paul George, but the Rockets took care of business every time.
Minnesota's offense leans hard on LaMelo Ball right now. Ball scored 34 and 24 in the two wins without Edwards, then 10 and 8 in the two losses, and fouls have been a problem too: disqualified at San Antonio, 5 fouls against Golden State. With Terrence Shannon Jr. also out, there's little shot creation behind Ball and Ayo Dosunmu. The Wolves are firing 41.25 threes a game without Edwards and making 35.2%, while Houston has held opponents to 29.9%, and nobody has made more than 13 against them. Some of that is luck, but it's the shot Minnesota relies on.
This isn't a free ride. With Clint Capela and Steven Adams out, Oscar Tshiebwe is the backup center and played only 7 minutes Monday. Minnesota averages 14.75 offensive rebounds, and Boston just beat Houston 13-9 on the offensive glass. The Wolves are also hard to blow out: only one of their three losses was by more than 7, and that came at San Antonio with Rudy Gobert out and Ball disqualified. Houston's slow pace, about 97 possessions a game, makes a margin harder to build, and the Rockets let a 117-95 lead over Atlanta shrink to a 120-110 final.
I'm not buying the Kevin Durant shot-volume noise, since Houston beat Boston by 16 with Durant shooting 5-6. Rest is even, with both teams on one day off. It's only eight games of evidence, so this is a measured play, but I'll lay the 7.5 with Houston at home.
Rockets -7.5