Jacksonville Jaguars picks

Thursday night at M&T Bank Stadium, the Ravens are down to Joe Fagnano, an undrafted rookie making a first NFL start with Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both out. The 5-2 Jaguars come in laying a big number on the road. Baltimore's offense is the main reason I'm on Jacksonville. Fagnano went 10-of-21 for 91 yards and an interception in emergency relief at Buffalo, pressured on 52% of dropbacks. This offense was stalling before that, too: the Ravens have been outscored 68-3 in second halves over their last three games. The usual case for a big home dog is the backdoor cover, and there's no sign of one here. Leaning on Derrick Henry doesn't solve it. Henry is at 3.5 yards a carry over the last three games, and Jacksonville allows 3.4 for the season. Baltimore also lost Tyler Loop, who made kicks from 64, 57 and 56 yards this year, and Jake Moody is expected to kick but isn't confirmed. Jacksonville should get plenty of chances. The Ravens allowed 35 and 36 points the last two weeks, with 19 combined missed tackles and one sack in each game. Jaylinn Hawkins is out and Nate Wiggins is questionable. Trevor Lawrence is averaging 8.5 yards an attempt with 17 TD and 4 INT, and the Jaguars are +7 in turnovers. The case against is real. The Jaguars have won by more than 9.5 three times, all at home. Away from Jacksonville, their margins are -7, -3, +2 and +5, and their red zone falls from 8 TDs on 8 trips to 5 on 11. But those four games came against Bo Nix, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and C.J. Stroud, and Fagnano hasn't shown that kind of threat. This bet loses if Jacksonville settles for field goals and Zay Flowers breaks a big play. Travon Walker and Bhayshul Tuten are both questionable, inactives weren't out when I wrote this, and Jaguars news is thin. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has been just as efficient on the ground, at 4.6 yards a carry to Tuten's 4.5, though Rodriguez was limited Wednesday with a hand injury. Losing Walker with DaVon Hamilton on IR would hurt more. That uncertainty and the -120 price keep this a solid lean, not a max play.