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NFL · Sun, Sep 20 · 4:05 PM

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

O/U 35.5 · SPREAD Denver Broncos -9.5 · Empower Field at Mile High

GARY'S PICK
Jaguars +2.5
NFL@ Broncos· -102

Jaguars
+2.5

-102 · LOST · JAX 13 · DEN 20

Broncos

The pick & result

Published pick
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 -102
Published odds
-102
Result
Lost
Final score
13-20

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 35 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 14 6:00 AM
Close
Sep 20 3:46 PM
Move
SPREADDenver Broncos -3 (-102)Denver Broncos -2.5 (-118)−½
TOTAL44 (-112)45.5 (-110)+1½
MONEYLINEDenver Broncos -150Denver Broncos -145+5
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 14 6:00 AMDenver Broncos -3 (-102)44 (-112)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 14 8:01 AMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)44.5 (-105)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 14 9:31 AMDenver Broncos -3 (+100)44.5 (-110)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 14 2:03 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)44.5 (-110)Denver Broncos -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Sep 15 12:18 AMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-112)44.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -140 · Jacksonville Jaguars +115
Sep 15 7:30 AMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-115)44.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -140 · Jacksonville Jaguars +115
Sep 15 8:30 AMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-110)44.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -140 · Jacksonville Jaguars +115
Sep 15 12:01 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-115)44.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Sep 15 3:01 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 15 8:01 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-125)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 15 9:02 PMDenver Broncos -3 (-105)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 15 11:02 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-125)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 16 6:00 AMDenver Broncos -3 (-102)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 16 11:31 AMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 17 12:32 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 18 4:04 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 18 6:05 PMDenver Broncos -3 (-102)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 18 10:02 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 18 11:02 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-125)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 19 5:10 PMDenver Broncos -3 (-102)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -160 · Jacksonville Jaguars +130
Sep 19 5:40 PMDenver Broncos -3 (-102)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -155 · Jacksonville Jaguars +130
Sep 19 6:11 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -155 · Jacksonville Jaguars +130
Sep 19 10:27 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -160 · Jacksonville Jaguars +130
Sep 19 10:57 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -155 · Jacksonville Jaguars +130
Sep 20 12:44 AMDenver Broncos -3 (-102)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -155 · Jacksonville Jaguars +130
Sep 20 6:00 AMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-125)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 20 8:19 AMDenver Broncos -3 (-102)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 20 10:51 AMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-110)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 20 11:40 AMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 20 12:03 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-110)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 20 12:35 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Sep 20 1:25 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-110)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 20 2:25 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Sep 20 2:35 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-110)Denver Broncos -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 20 3:26 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Denver Broncos -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
CLOSESep 20 3:46 PMDenver Broncos -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-110)Denver Broncos -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120

The read

Denver opens its home schedule looking to recover from a rough Monday night in Kansas City. Jacksonville arrives for its first road test after taking control of its opener before halftime.

I trust Jacksonville’s offensive execution more in this matchup. Trevor Lawrence completed 18 of 23 passes for 245 yards and four touchdowns against Cleveland, but the more useful detail is how consistently Jacksonville avoided difficult situations: 59.1% early-down success, with touchdowns distributed among four receivers. Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange give Lawrence several productive options. Cleveland is only one opponent, but Jacksonville also demonstrated that this offense can succeed in Denver, winning 34-20 there in December 2025. That earlier meeting supports the case without settling today’s matchup.

The other pressure point is Denver’s offense against Jacksonville’s front. Nix took four sacks in the opener, while Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker each recorded 1.5 sacks against Cleveland. Denver’s protection has to improve for its intended increase in Waddle’s involvement to translate into production. Payton’s September 18 comments about balance and getting Waddle touches describe sensible adjustments; they still require execution. Jacksonville also has seven days between games against Denver’s six.

Denver’s strongest counterargument deserves weight. Its defense recorded 76 sacks across 19 games including the playoffs last season, and Jacksonville’s clean opening protection performance does not guarantee another one here. Denver also allowed less early-down success than Jacksonville in their respective openers. I expect a more competitive Broncos performance than the opening score suggests, and I’m not treating Jacksonville’s five sacks or Denver’s missed tackles as automatic repeats.

That is why I prefer the points to Jacksonville’s moneyline. My conviction is that Jacksonville can compete throughout this game, with enough offensive answers to challenge Denver even if the Broncos improve. At +2.5 (-102), the ticket also survives a Denver win by one or two; it does not survive a three-point loss. That protection fits my read better than requiring Jacksonville to finish the job outright.

Injuries noted

Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Bartlett (IR) — ir; Garrett DiGiorgio (IR) — ir; Zach Durfee (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Durfee (upper body) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Matt Zenitz of CBSSports.com reports.; Parker Hughes (IR) — ir; Patrick Mekari (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Mekari (back) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Sam Mustipher (IR) — The Jaguars placed Mustipher (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.; Quinn Ewers (Inactive) — Ewers (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Browns.; Daniel Faalele (Inactive) — inactive; Jalen Huskey (Inactive) — inactive; Tanner Koziol (Inactive) — Koziol (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Browns.; Bryan Thomas Jr. (Inactive) — inactive; Wesley Williams (Inactive) — inactive; B.J. Green II (IR) — The Jaguars placed Green (elbow) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Brian Thomas Jr. (Questionable) — Thomas (shoulder) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday.; LeQuint Allen Jr. (Questionable) — Allen (hip) was limited in Wednesday's practice.; Jakobi Meyers (Questionable) — Meyers (thumb) practiced on a limited basis Thursday.; Foyesade Oluokun (Questionable) — Oluokun (wrist) was a limited participant at practice Thursday.; Cole Van Lanen (Questionable) — Van Lanen (knee) was limited at practice Thursday.

Denver Broncos: Caleb Lohner (IR-R) — Lohner (lower body) was placed on injured reserve by the Broncos on Sunday with a designation to return, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports.; Nick Gargiulo (PUP-R) — Gargiulo (knee) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Broncos on Sunday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.; Michael Deiter (IR) — ir; Matt Henningsen (IR) — ir; Levelle Bailey (IR) — Bailey (leg) reverted to the Broncos' injured-reserve list Friday, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.; Frank Crum (IR-R) — Crum (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Broncos on Sunday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.; Tyler Badie (Inactive) — Badie (coach's decision) is inactive for Monday's game against the Chiefs, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports.; Dallen Bentley (Inactive) — inactive; Kage Casey (Inactive) — inactive; Sam Ehlinger (Inactive) — Ehlinger (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Broncos' emergency third quarterback against the Chiefs on Monday, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos' official site reports.; Jordan Jackson (Inactive) — inactive; Tyler Onyedim (Inactive) — inactive; Marvin Mims Jr. (Out) — Mims (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Jaguars, Troy Renck of Denver 7 News reports.; RJ Harvey (Questionable) — Harvey (hamstring) "is unlikely to play" Sunday against the Jaguars, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Bo Nix is the projected starting quarterback for DEN

    4.68 Y/A

    In his first 2026 game, Bo Nix threw for 131 passing yards, completed 60.7% of his passes and averaged 4.68 yards per attempt. His 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.

  • Trevor Lawrence is the projected starting quarterback for JAX

    10.65 Y/A

    In his first 2026 game, Trevor Lawrence threw for 245 passing yards, completed 78.3% of his passes and averaged 10.65 yards per attempt. His 4-0 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.

TRENCHES

  • JAX's front holds runners to 133 fewer yards per game

    133 YPG

    JAX is at 87 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; DEN is at 220 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

PASS RUSH

  • JAX's rush gets home 3 more times per game

    3 SACKS

    JAX is at 5 sacks recorded per game over 1 game; DEN is at 2 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • JAX is scoring +24 points per game

    24 PPG

    JAX is at 34 points per game over 1 game; DEN is at 10 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • JAX's defense gives up 21 fewer points per game

    21 PPG

    JAX is at 10 points allowed per game over 1 game; DEN is at 31 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • JAX holds the ball 7:33 longer per game

    7:33 TOP

    JAX is at 33:51 time of possession per game over 1 game; DEN is at 26:18 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • JAX runs +9 more plays per game

    9 PLAYS

    JAX is at 56 offensive plays per game over 1 game; DEN is at 47 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

TURNOVERS

  • JAX's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game

    1 TO

    JAX is at 2 takeaways per game over 1 game; DEN is at 1 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • JAX owns a +2.7 yards-per-play gap

    2.7 Y/P

    JAX is at 6.4 yards per play over 1 game; DEN is at 3.7 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

RED ZONE

  • JAX allows a red-zone scoring rate 60 percentage points lower

    60 PP

    JAX is at 0% red-zone scoring allowed over 1 game; DEN is at 60% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

MISMATCH

  • JAX's defense against DEN's — JAX allows 10 a game, DEN 31

    10 VS 31

    The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pts allowed / g — JAX 10, DEN 31, over 1 and 1 game samples.

COVERAGE

  • JAX allows a third-down conversion rate 40.4 percentage points lower

    40.4 PP

    JAX is at 12.5% third downs allowed over 1 game; DEN is at 52.9% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • JAX lead the series with DEN since 2025

    1-0 SERIES

    JAX's only meeting with DEN since 2025 was a 34-20 win at DEN on Dec. 21, 2025. There is no earlier result in the supplied series sample for comparison.

REPLACEMENT

  • Quinn Ewers (QB) is inactive for JAX

    INACTIVE

    Ewers (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Broncos, John Oehser of the Jaguars' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.

  • Brian Thomas Jr. (WR) is questionable for JAX

    QUESTIONABLE

    Thomas (shoulder) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday. Reported Sep 17.

  • LeQuint Allen Jr. (RB) is questionable for JAX

    QUESTIONABLE

    Allen (hip) was limited in Wednesday's practice. Reported Sep 16.

  • Jakobi Meyers (WR) is questionable for JAX

    QUESTIONABLE

    Meyers (thumb) practiced on a limited basis Thursday. Reported Sep 17.

SITUATIONAL

  • JAX averages +6.2 yards every time it drops back

    6.2 Y/A

    JAX is at 9.8 yards per pass attempt over 1 game; DEN is at 3.6 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • JAX's third-down conversion rate is 33.3 percentage points higher

    33.3 PP

    JAX is at 50% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; DEN is at 16.7% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • JAX's passing game is +119 yards per game

    119 YPG

    JAX is at 234 team passing yards per game over 1 game; DEN is at 115 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • JAX moves the chains 14 more times per game

    14 FD

    JAX is at 23 first downs per game over 1 game; DEN is at 9 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • JAX gives away 27 fewer penalty yards per game

    27 YDS

    JAX is at 25 penalty yards per game over 1 game; DEN is at 52 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • JAX (1-0) at DEN (0-1)

    -45 PT GAP

    JAX opens this trip at 1-0 with a +24 point differential and a one-game winning streak, compared with DEN at 0-1 and -21 points. Neither team has played in this venue split yet: JAX is 0-0 on the road and DEN is 0-0 at home.

AFTER GARY

  • JAX +2.5 → +2.5

    GARY +0.72PP

    FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 17, 2026 at 4:28 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

3
  • GARY'S PICK
    J.K. DOBBINSRUSHING ATTEMPTS OVER 13.5
    NFLDenver Broncos· -114

    J.K. Dobbins
    Rushing Attempts over 13.5

    -114 · LOST · ACTUAL 10

    Denver Broncos

    I’m taking over 13.5 rushing attempts at -114. Dobbins cleared this number in nine of his final 10 games last season, averaging 15.3 carries in that span, and Denver has repeatedly identified the run as the offense’s calling card.

    RJ Harvey is unlikely to play because of a hamstring injury, clearing the way for Dobbins to handle substantially more than the eight carries he received while Denver chased Kansas City in Week 1. The strongest counter is Jacksonville’s run defense: it ranked first last season and allowed only 87 rushing yards in the opener.

    Denver also could abandon the run again if it falls behind.

  • GARY'S PICK
    TREVOR LAWRENCEPASSING ATTEMPTS UNDER 32.5
    NFLJacksonville Jaguars· -110

    Trevor Lawrence
    Passing Attempts under 32.5

    -110 · CASHED · ACTUAL 29

    Jacksonville Jaguars

    I’m taking under 32.5 passing attempts at -110. Lawrence stayed below this line in seven of his final 10 games last season and attempted only 23 passes in Jacksonville’s opener.

    The Jaguars ran 32 times in that win, and Denver just allowed 220 rushing yards, giving Liam Coen a clear reason to retain a balanced, run-friendly approach instead of asking Lawrence to throw 33-plus times. The strongest counter is the projected game environment: Jacksonville is a road underdog against a Denver defense that produced 68 sacks last season.

    A close game, an early deficit or repeated negative plays could push Lawrence beyond the number.

  • THE LONG SHOT
    BHAYSHUL TUTENANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
    NFLJacksonville Jaguars· +200

    Bhayshul Tuten
    Anytime TD over 0.5

    +200 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

    Jacksonville Jaguars

    I’m taking Tuten to score a touchdown at +200. He led Jacksonville with 15 carries and 17 touches in Week 1, establishing himself as the primary back, and now faces a Denver defense that surrendered 220 rushing yards while missing 28 tackles against Kansas City.

    Jacksonville’s commitment to the run gives him multiple paths to a goal-line opportunity at an appealing price. The strongest counter is that Tuten did not score on 17 touches in the opener and still shares work with Chris Rodriguez Jr.

    and Ameer Abdullah. Denver’s Week 1 collapse also conflicts with its established profile as a top-three run defense in each of the previous two seasons.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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