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NFL · Sun, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

O/U 45.5 · SPREAD Jacksonville Jaguars -10.5 · EverBank Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Jaguars -10.5
NFLvs Colts· -105

Jaguars
-10.5

-105 · CASHED · IND 7 · JAX 42

Colts

The pick & result

Published pick
Jacksonville Jaguars -10.5 -105
Published odds
-105
Result
Won
Final score
7-42

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 58 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 25 6:01 PM
Close
Sun 12:23 PM
Move
SPREADJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)+2½
TOTAL46.5 (-108)45.5 (-108)−1
MONEYLINEJacksonville Jaguars -375Jacksonville Jaguars -500−125
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 25 6:01 PMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-108)46.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -375 · Indianapolis Colts +300
Oct 25 7:23 PMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-108)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -375 · Indianapolis Colts +300
Oct 25 8:13 PMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-108)47 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -400 · Indianapolis Colts +310
Oct 25 8:23 PMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-108)46.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -375 · Indianapolis Colts +310
Oct 25 10:23 PMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-108)47 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -400 · Indianapolis Colts +320
Oct 25 10:53 PMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-108)47 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -375 · Indianapolis Colts +310
Oct 26 12:23 AMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-108)47 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -400 · Indianapolis Colts +320
Oct 26 8:31 AMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -375 · Indianapolis Colts +310
Oct 26 10:01 AMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-112)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -400 · Indianapolis Colts +310
Oct 26 11:01 AMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-112)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -375 · Indianapolis Colts +300
Oct 26 2:03 PMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-112)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -375 · Indianapolis Colts +300
Oct 26 3:03 PMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-112)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -400 · Indianapolis Colts +310
Oct 27 8:31 AMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -400 · Indianapolis Colts +310
Oct 27 9:31 AMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-112)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -400 · Indianapolis Colts +310
Oct 27 1:01 PMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-120)46.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -375 · Indianapolis Colts +310
Oct 27 2:01 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8 (-112)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -425 · Indianapolis Colts +333
Oct 27 3:01 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8 (-112)46.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -450 · Indianapolis Colts +340
Oct 27 5:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Oct 27 6:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-110)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Oct 27 8:05 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9 (-118)46.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Oct 27 9:05 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-110)46.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Oct 27 10:05 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-108)46.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
Oct 28 6:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -9 (-118)46.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -475 · Indianapolis Colts +360
Oct 28 9:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -9 (-118)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -475 · Indianapolis Colts +375
Oct 28 11:32 AMJacksonville Jaguars -9 (-118)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -475 · Indianapolis Colts +360
Oct 28 12:17 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9 (-118)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -475 · Indianapolis Colts +375
Oct 28 1:48 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-110)46.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -475 · Indianapolis Colts +375
Oct 28 2:48 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-110)46.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Oct 28 4:48 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-120)46.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Oct 28 6:48 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-112)46.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
Oct 28 8:19 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-110)46.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Oct 28 8:49 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-110)46.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Oct 28 9:19 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-110)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Thu 6:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-110)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Thu 9:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-112)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Thu 9:31 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Thu 10:01 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-110)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Thu 2:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Thu 5:24 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
Thu 7:33 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -475 · Indianapolis Colts +375
Thu 7:38 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
Fri 8:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-110)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
Fri 9:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
Sat 6:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
Sat 9:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
Sun 7:01 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Sun 8:31 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-110)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
Sun 9:26 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-110)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Sun 10:11 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-110)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Sun 10:31 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Sun 10:41 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-105)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
Sun 10:51 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-105)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -525 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Sun 11:21 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10.5 (-105)46.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
Sun 11:32 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10.5 (-102)46 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +400
Sun 11:42 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10.5 (-102)46 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
Sun 11:52 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10.5 (-102)45.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
Sun 12:00 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-118)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
Sun 12:13 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10.5 (-102)45.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380
CLOSESun 12:23 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Indianapolis Colts +380

The read

The Jaguars haven't played in Jacksonville since September 27. They come home off a bye to face a 2-5 Colts team that arrives without Quenton Nelson or DeForest Buckner.

Nelson played 100% of snaps at left guard. Jalen Farmer, who has played offensive snaps once all season, takes over. That's a problem in front of Daniel Jones, who has been sacked 10 times in the last two games and threw for 108 yards at Minnesota. Indy wants to lean on Jonathan Taylor, but this Jacksonville front held Cincinnati to 23 rushing yards and Philadelphia to 22. If the run stalls, Jones is throwing on long downs behind a patched line. The Colts already have 12 giveaways against 3 takeaways. Jacksonville is +5.

The other side of the ball is worse for Indy. Justin Walley, the Colts' most-targeted defender, is out. Cam Taylor-Britt is on IR. That leaves the nickel to Kapena Gushiken, who has played real defense once this year. Trevor Lawrence spreads the ball around: Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, and Travis Hunter if Jakobi Meyers sits. This Colts defense gave up 41, 33 and 34 to the good quarterbacks on its schedule.

At home, Jacksonville beat Cleveland 34-10 and New England 35-6. Season point differential: Jaguars +50, Colts -26. And the only team Tennessee has beaten is Indianapolis.

The risks are real. Indy has won time of possession in six of seven games, which shortens games, and three of its five losses landed inside this number. Tyler Warren is back after catching 30 of 36 targets. Meyers didn't practice Saturday, and Josh Hines-Allen was limited. A Thursday trip to Baltimore could mean starters sit if this gets out of hand.

At -105, I'll lay it. Get -10 if a book offers it; at -11.5 or worse, pass.

Injuries noted

Indianapolis Colts: Cameron Mitchell (IR) — ir; D.J. Montgomery (IR) — Montgomery (abdomen) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Sunday.; Carson Towt (IR) — ir; Alec Pierce (IR) — Colts head coach Shane Steichen said Monday that Pierce (heel) will "most likely not" have his 21-day practice window opened in Week 8.; Micheal Clemons (IR) — Clemons (toe) was placed on injured reserve by the Colts on Tuesday.; Arden Key (IR) — The Colts placed Key (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Anthony Gould (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: concussion; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full. Gould (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's Week 8 tilt against Jacksonville.; Bryce Boettcher (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: groin; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Boettcher (groin) is questionable for Sunday's matchup against the Jaguars.; Justin Walley (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Walley (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Jaguars.; Cam Taylor-Britt (IR) — The Colts placed Taylor-Britt on injured reserve Tuesday due to a groin injury.; Drew Ogletree (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Ogletree (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jaguars.; Rigoberto Sanchez (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: foot; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Akeem Davis-Gaither (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hand; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Sauce Gardner (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: calf; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Matt Goncalves (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Tyler Warren (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: groin; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Tim Smith (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; CJ Allen (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Bartlett (IR) — ir; Garrett DiGiorgio (IR); Zach Durfee (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Durfee (upper body) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return.; Parker Hughes (IR) — ir; Patrick Mekari (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Mekari (back) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Sam Mustipher (IR) — The Jaguars placed Mustipher (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.; B.J. Green II (IR) — The Jaguars placed Green (elbow) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Caleb Ransaw (IR) — The Jaguars placed Ransaw (knee) on their injured reserve list Tuesday.; Anton Harrison (IR) — Harrison was diagnosed with a torn ACL while undergoing a procedure on his right knee Thursday.; Antonio Johnson (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Johnson (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Colts.; Jakobi Meyers (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring, ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Meyers (hamstring/ankle) is expected to play in Sunday's game against the Colts.; Jahlani Tavai (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Josh Hines-Allen (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Ross Matiscik (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: shoulder; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Montaric Brown (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Brenton Strange (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: eye; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Ruke Orhorhoro (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; LeQuint Allen Jr. (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Trevor Lawrence is the projected starting quarterback for JAX

    8.04 Y/A

    Through 6 games in 2026, Trevor Lawrence threw for 1480 passing yards, completed 65.2% of his passes and averaged 8.04 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4007 yards, completed 60.9% and averaged 7.16 yards per attempt, 29-12 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 14-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.

  • Daniel Jones is the projected starting quarterback for IND

    5.83 Y/A

    Through 7 games in 2026, Daniel Jones threw for 1398 passing yards, completed 59.6% of his passes and averaged 5.83 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 3101 yards, completed 68% and averaged 8.08 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-7 touchdown-to-interception line is 7 games in.

TRENCHES

  • JAX: 72.2 rushing yards allowed per game to IND's 124.4

    52.3 YPG

    Jacksonville allows only 72.2 rushing yards a game over 6 games, while Indianapolis gives up 124.4 in its 7. Rushing totals depend on game script, since teams that fall behind stop running, and the sheet doesn't show whether that helped Jacksonville. Either way, the Colts will likely have a hard time running in Jacksonville, while the Jaguars' ground game has more room to work.

PASS RUSH

  • JAX: 1.67 sacks taken per game to IND's 2.71

    1.05 SACKS

    IND is at 2.71 sacks taken per game over 7 games; JAX is at 1.67 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season IND was at 2.07 over 17 games and JAX at 3.42 over 17 games.

  • JAX: 11.8 sack yards lost per game to IND's 19.3

    7.5 YDS

    IND is at 19.3 sack yards lost per game over 7 games; JAX is at 11.8 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season IND was at 15.1 over 17 games and JAX at 20.6 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • JAX: 17.3 points allowed per game to IND's 25.7

    8.4 PPG

    IND is at 25.7 points allowed per game over 7 games; JAX is at 17.3 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season IND was at 24.2 over 17 games and JAX at 19.8 over 17 games.

  • JAX: 25.7 points per game to IND's 22

    3.7 PPG

    IND is at 22 points per game over 7 games; JAX is at 25.7 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season IND was at 27.4 over 17 games and JAX at 27.9 over 17 games.

  • IND: 65.6 offensive plays per game to JAX's 60.2

    5.4 PLAYS

    IND is at 65.6 offensive plays per game over 7 games; JAX is at 60.2 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season IND was at 59.9 over 17 games and JAX at 64.3 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • JAX: 1.5 takeaways per game to IND's 0.43

    1.07 TO

    Jacksonville forces 1.5 turnovers a game over 6 games, while Indianapolis gets fewer than half a takeaway in its 7. Takeaways are one of the streakiest stats in football, so both teams are likely to move toward the middle as the season goes on. For this game, Jacksonville has the better chance of winning the turnover battle at home, but no team should be expected to keep this pace.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • JAX: 5.77 yards per play to IND's 4.51

    1.25 Y/P

    Jacksonville gains 5.77 yards a play to Indy's 4.51, meaning the Jaguars move the ball in bigger chunks. The Colts were at 5.77 themselves last season, so their drop is the story, while Jacksonville is up from 5.27. Last game showed it: Trevor Lawrence hit six plays of 20-plus, including 28 yards to Jakobi Meyers, while Indy's only one was a 38-yard Jonathan Taylor touchdown run. Indy's slide is far off last season, so some bounce back is possible, but this sets up as Jacksonville's explosive game against an offense grinding for yards.

RED ZONE

  • JAX: 40% red-zone scoring allowed to IND's 60%

    20 PP

    IND is at 60% red-zone scoring allowed over 7 games; JAX is at 40% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 31.

MISMATCH

  • JAX: 5.77 yards a snap to IND's 4.51

    5.77 VS 4.51

    Jacksonville gains 5.77 yards a snap over six games, Indianapolis 4.51 over seven. The teams have swapped spots from last season, when the Colts were at 5.77 and the Jaguars at 5.27, so both numbers could drift toward the middle. For now, the Jaguars move it more easily, and the Colts need to stay on schedule and avoid long third downs on the road.

COVERAGE

  • IND: 215.9 passing yards allowed per game to JAX's 273.8

    58 YPG

    Indianapolis allows 215.9 passing yards a game over seven games, and Jacksonville gives up 273.8 over six. The Jaguars' number comes from one fewer game, but the gap is wide enough to matter. Passing props and totals in this matchup lean toward the Colts' passing game finding more room than Jacksonville's does.

  • IND: 30% third downs allowed to JAX's 36.2%

    6.2 PP

    IND is at 30% third downs allowed over 7 games; JAX is at 36.2% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 31.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • JAX lead the series with IND since 2025

    2-0 SERIES

    Jacksonville beat Indianapolis twice last December. The first was a 36-19 blowout at home, and the second was a 23-17 road win that stayed close. This game is in Jacksonville, where the Jaguars' 36-19 win came. Those two games were three weeks apart in one stretch of last season, so they show where the teams stood then more than now.

REPLACEMENT

  • Alec Pierce (WR) is on injured reserve for IND

    IR

    Pierce is on injured reserve with a heel injury, and his coach said Monday his 21-day practice window will "most likely not" open in Week 8. Until that window opens he can't get back on the field, so the Colts' receivers carry on without him at Jacksonville and his return is pushed further out.

  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CB) is on injured reserve for IND

    IR

    Indianapolis moved Taylor-Britt to injured reserve on Tuesday with a groin injury, reported Oct 27, which rules him out at Jacksonville. Injured reserve means a multi-week absence, so the Colts will be thinner at corner for a stretch. The sheet does not name his replacement, so the useful angle is how Jacksonville's passing game attacks whoever lines up in his spot.

  • Anton Harrison (OT) is on injured reserve for JAX

    IR

    Harrison has a torn ACL in his right knee, found during a procedure Thursday and reported Oct 24, and he is on injured reserve. A torn ACL usually ends a season, so Jacksonville is without a starting-caliber tackle for the long haul. The sheet does not name his replacement, so look at how Indianapolis's pass rush lines up against that side of the Jaguars' line.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Anthony Gould

    Out

    Concussion · Full practice · Out

  • Antonio Johnson

    Out

    Ankle · Did not practice · Out

  • Justin Walley

    Out

    Knee · Did not practice · Out

  • Bryce Boettcher

    Questionable

    Groin · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Jakobi Meyers

    Questionable

    Hamstring, Ankle · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Drew Ogletree

    Questionable

    Knee · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Josh Hines-Allen

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Jahlani Tavai

    LP

    Limited practice

  • LeQuint Allen Jr.

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Ross Matiscik

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Matt Goncalves

    FP

    Full practice

  • Rigoberto Sanchez

    FP

    Full practice

  • Akeem Davis-Gaither

    FP

    Full practice

  • Sauce Gardner

    FP

    Full practice

  • Brenton Strange

    FP

    Full practice

  • Montaric Brown

    FP

    Full practice

  • Tyler Warren

    FP

    Full practice

  • CJ Allen

    FP

    Full practice

  • Tim Smith

    FP

    Full practice

  • Ruke Orhorhoro

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • JAX has 7 more days of rest

    7d vs 14d

    Jacksonville is coming off a bye with 14 days of rest, and Indianapolis arrives on a standard 7-day week. That gives the home team an extra week to get healthier and scheme for a division opponent. Indianapolis gets the normal routine plus a road trip. The schedule sets this gap, so it stays put. A bettor can count it as a small extra point in Jacksonville's favor, with the most weight in close spots where health and preparation decide things.

  • IND (2-5) at JAX (4-2), a division game

    +76 PT GAP

    Indianapolis comes into Jacksonville on a three-game losing streak and has been outscored by 26 on the year, while the Jaguars are plus-50 through six games. The splits line up with that: the Colts are 1-3 away from home and Jacksonville is 3-1 in its own building. These are four-game splits, so they're thin. The point differential carries more weight, and it backs the same direction. Division familiarity can tighten games like this, so judge the spread against the season-long gap more than the home record alone.

  • IND: 38.7 penalty yards per game to JAX's 68.7

    30 YDS

    IND is at 38.7 penalty yards per game over 7 games; JAX is at 68.7 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season IND was at 51.2 over 17 games and JAX at 63.5 over 17 games.

  • IND: 2.14 fourth-down attempts per game to JAX's 0.83

    1.31 ATT/G

    IND is at 2.14 fourth-down attempts per game over 7 games; JAX is at 0.83 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season IND was at 1.59 over 17 games and JAX at 1.71 over 17 games.

  • IND: 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate to JAX's 40%

    26.7 PP

    IND is at 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate over 7 games; JAX is at 40% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season IND was at 66.7% over 17 games and JAX at 58.6% over 17 games.

STREAK

  • IND has lost 3 straight

    L3

    Indianapolis has dropped three straight and is 2-5, so the losing goes back further than this recent run. The sheet does not name the opponents in those losses, so it cannot show whether this is a weak team or a hard stretch of schedule. Three games is a small sample, and losing teams tend to get priced down after a skid. This trip to Jacksonville is a spot where the market may already be leaning hard against them.

TEAM RECORD

  • JAX is 3-1 at home; IND is 1-3 on the road

    3-1

    Jacksonville is 3-1 at home and Indianapolis is 1-3 on the road, four games each way. That is a cleaner contrast than most splits this early, since both teams have the same number of games behind it. Four games can still flip on a single result, so expect both marks to drift toward the middle. It is a fair reason to start from Jacksonville at home and ask what in the matchup changes that.

  • AFC SOUTH game: IND 1-1, JAX 0-1 in the division

    DIVISION

    These two share the AFC SOUTH. IND is 1-1 against it, JAX is 0-1. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-31.

AFTER GARY

  • JAX -10.5 → -10.5

    NOW +1.22PP

    Gary's number was -10.5; the market closed at -10.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 29, 2026 at 4:20 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, caesars, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    DANIEL JONESPASSING YARDS OVER 195.5
    NFLIndianapolis Colts· -113

    Daniel Jones
    Passing Yards over 195.5

    -113 · LOST · ACTUAL 144

    Indianapolis Colts

    The game script is why I'm on this. Indianapolis is getting ten and a half on the road against a Jacksonville team coming off a bye, and the Colts just lost Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner from the roster. If the Jaguars play to the number, Jones spends the second half throwing. We've already seen what that looks like: the Titans and Steelers games turned into 42 and 44 attempts, and both finished in the high 260s.

    The Jaguars' pass defense makes it easier. Every quarterback who has faced them this year has gone past this line, and that list includes Deshaun Watson and a Drake Maye game split with Tommy DeVito. Joe Burrow put up 428 on them. Their pass rush produced no sacks against Houston, and starting safety Antonio Johnson is out, so Kaevon Merriweather takes over at the back end.

    Tyler Warren is back after practicing in full Saturday and carrying no designation. He was Jones' most reliable short target before the groin injury, and he raises the floor on the completions that keep drives going. The 108 yards at Minnesota is the reason this line sits where it does. That was a low volume game played close against a good defense, and today should look nothing like it.

  • GARY'S PICK
    TYLER WARRENRECEPTIONS OVER 4.5
    NFLIndianapolis Colts· -108

    Tyler Warren
    Receptions over 4.5

    -108 · LOST · ACTUAL 4

    Indianapolis Colts

    Warren has been the hub of this passing game every time he's been on the field. He played between 50 and 67 snaps in each game, and his targets ran 5, 7, 10, 5 and 9. The two catch totals below this line came from Week 1 and a Commanders game where the whole offense threw only 29 times. The Colts' passing game went flat in the two weeks he sat. Will Mallory and Andrew Ogletree did nothing with those snaps, and Ogletree is now questionable himself.

    His practice week answers the snap count question. He went limited, limited, then full on Saturday, and he carries no designation. That reads like a player cleared for his normal role. With Alec Pierce on IR and Anthony Gould out, Indianapolis doesn't have many other places to go with the ball.

    The matchup sets up for volume underneath. Jacksonville has been giving tight ends steady catches, seven to Houston and six to Philadelphia in the last two games, and the safety who handled a lot of that coverage is out. With Indianapolis likely trailing and Jones under pressure behind a line missing Nelson, the quick throw to the big tight end is the easiest completion on the field. I'll take the over at a near even price.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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