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NFL · Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

O/U 37.5 · SPREAD Jacksonville Jaguars -30.5 · EverBank Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Jaguars -8.5
NFLvs Browns· -112
✓ CASHED · CLE 10 · JAX 34

Jaguars
-8.5

-112 · CASHED · CLE 10 · JAX 34

Browns

The pick & result

Published pick
Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 -112
Published odds
-112
Result
Won
Final score
10-34

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

CAESARS · 17 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 9 10:49 AM		Close
Sep 13 12:58 PM		Move
SPREADJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-112)Price
TOTAL40.5 (-118)40.5 (-115)Price
MONEYLINEJacksonville Jaguars -420Jacksonville Jaguars -460−40
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 9 10:49 AMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-108)40.5 (-118)Jacksonville Jaguars -420 · Cleveland Browns +320
Sep 9 11:59 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-108)40.5 (-118)Jacksonville Jaguars -420 · Cleveland Browns +325
Sep 10 11:32 AMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-108)40.5 (-114)Jacksonville Jaguars -420 · Cleveland Browns +325
Sep 10 12:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-108)40 (-121)Jacksonville Jaguars -420 · Cleveland Browns +320
Sep 10 12:32 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-108)39.5 (-129)Jacksonville Jaguars -420 · Cleveland Browns +320
Sep 10 5:03 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-108)40 (-121)Jacksonville Jaguars -420 · Cleveland Browns +320
Sep 11 12:40 AMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-108)40.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -420 · Cleveland Browns +320
Sep 11 6:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-108)40 (-118)Jacksonville Jaguars -420 · Cleveland Browns +320
Sep 11 2:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-108)40 (-120)Jacksonville Jaguars -420 · Cleveland Browns +320
Sep 11 7:03 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-105)40 (-120)Jacksonville Jaguars -420 · Cleveland Browns +320
Sep 12 5:01 AMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-104)39.5 (-127)Jacksonville Jaguars -420 · Cleveland Browns +320
Sep 12 7:30 AMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-104)39.5 (-127)Jacksonville Jaguars -420 · Cleveland Browns +320
Sep 13 10:14 AMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-104)40 (-118)Jacksonville Jaguars -460 · Cleveland Browns +340
Sep 13 10:46 AMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-104)39.5 (-127)Jacksonville Jaguars -460 · Cleveland Browns +340
Sep 13 12:27 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-112)39.5 (-127)Jacksonville Jaguars -460 · Cleveland Browns +340
Sep 13 12:37 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-112)40 (-120)Jacksonville Jaguars -460 · Cleveland Browns +340
Sep 13 12:48 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-112)40.5 (-114)Jacksonville Jaguars -460 · Cleveland Browns +350
CLOSESep 13 12:58 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-112)40.5 (-115)Jacksonville Jaguars -460 · Cleveland Browns +340

The read

Sunday afternoon at EverBank Stadium opens the season for both teams. Jacksonville gets its first home crowd of the regular season, while Cleveland begins a new chapter under Todd Monken.

I’m laying the points because Jacksonville has a credible way to build separation through sustained offense. Trevor Lawrence finished last season with 4,007 passing yards, 29 touchdown passes and nine rushing touchdowns, and he returns with the same head coach and offensive coordinator. Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange give that passing game several returning targets with established production. My expectation is that Jacksonville can keep finding productive possessions across the game, with Lawrence’s rushing ability providing another way to finish drives.

The other half of the bet is Jacksonville making Cleveland work for its scoring opportunities. The Jaguars allowed 85.6 rushing yards per game last season and a 7.8% explosive-play rate. Those figures describe different aspects of their defense: limiting rushing production and restricting chunk gains. Against a Cleveland offense looking to build around Quinshon Judkins, I expect that combination to put more of the burden on Deshaun Watson to sustain passing drives. Cleveland’s rebuilt offense could improve substantially, but its old offensive statistics cannot tell us how Watson will perform in this system. My Jacksonville case rests on the defense’s matchup with Cleveland’s intended running foundation.

Cleveland’s strongest answer is its defense forcing Jacksonville to settle for field goals. Last season the Browns allowed a 39.9% red-zone success rate, and their overall defensive efficiency was comparable to Jacksonville’s. That is a serious obstacle to laying this spread, particularly with Jacksonville rearranging its offensive line and changing its backfield. I still favor Lawrence and the returning receiving group to produce enough successful possessions against that resistance. Jacksonville can create its separation through the passing game without needing its new running arrangement to become an immediate strength.

The Jaguars cannot merely establish a lead and assume the cover follows. They need to keep converting opportunities through the fourth quarter. I’m backing their offensive continuity and the matchup against Cleveland’s running game to support that path. Turnovers could widen the gap, but I’m not building this ticket around a repeat of Jacksonville’s plus-13 turnover margin.

Injuries noted

Cleveland Browns: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (PUP-R) — out; Parker Brailsford (Questionable) — Hand; Kendrick Green (IR) — ir; Damarri Mathis (IR) — Undisclosed; Elijah Chatman (IR) — The Browns reverted Chatman (quadriceps) to IR on Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Kalia Davis (IR) — The Browns placed Davis on injured reserve Tuesday due to a quadriceps injury.; Dillon Gabriel (IR-R) — ir; Joe Royer (NFI-R) — The Browns placed Royer (personal) on the reserve/non-football illness list Sunday, Scott Petrak of the Elyria Chronicle-Telegram reports.; Edefuan Ulofoshio (IR) — Ulofoshio (biceps) reverted to the Browns' IR on Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Alex Wright (IR) — The Browns placed Wright on injured reserve Sunday due to a ruptured Achilles, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Teven Jenkins (Out) — Jenkins (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Bartlett (IR) — ir; Garrett DiGiorgio (IR) — ir; LeQuint Allen Jr. (Questionable) — Allen (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Cleveland, Mia O'Brien of 1010 XL 92.5 FM Jacksonville reports.; Zach Durfee (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Durfee (upper body) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Matt Zenitz of CBSSports.com reports.; Parker Hughes (IR) — ir; Patrick Mekari (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Mekari (back) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Sam Mustipher (IR) — The Jaguars placed Mustipher (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • JAX's passing game is +57.1 yards per game (2025 season)

    57.1 YPG

    In the 2025 regular season, JAX averaged 222.3 team passing yards per game over 17 games, 57.1 more than CLE’s 165.2. The difference separates their passing production, but it does not show how JAX’s approach meets CLE’s defense.

  • JAX averages +1.64 yards every time it drops back (2025 season)

    1.64 Y/A

    CLE is at 4.78 yards per pass attempt over 17 games; JAX is at 6.42 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

  • Trevor Lawrence starts at quarterback for JAX

    7.16 Y/A

    Lawrence's 2025 season line: 4007 passing yards, 60.9% completions, 7.16 yards per attempt, 29-12 TD-INT over 17 games.

  • Deshaun Watson starts at quarterback for CLE

    QB1

    10th Season, out of Clemson. No 2026 or 2025 passing line on file yet.

TRENCHES

  • JAX is +18.1 rush yards per game (2025 season)

    18.1 YPG

    CLE is at 97 rushing yards per game over 17 games; JAX is at 115.1 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • JAX is scoring +11.5 points per game (2025 season)

    11.5 PPG

    In the 2025 regular season, JAX scored 27.9 points per game over 17 games, 11.5 more than CLE’s 16.4. That establishes contrasting scoring profiles, but with no 2026 finals yet it does not show how either offense meets the opposing defense.

  • CLE @ JAX carries a 37.5 market total

    37.5

    The current fanduel total is 37.5, 10 points below the 47.5 median across 13 games with posted totals on this slate.

  • JAX holds the ball 2:38 longer per game (2025 season)

    2:38 TOP

    CLE is at 29:18 time of possession per game over 17 games; JAX is at 31:56 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

TURNOVERS

  • JAX commits 0.41 fewer turnovers per game (2025 season)

    0.41 TO

    CLE is at 1.47 turnovers committed per game over 17 games; JAX is at 1.06 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • JAX owns a +0.94 yards-per-play gap (2025 season)

    0.94 Y/P

    CLE is at 4.33 yards per play over 17 games; JAX is at 5.27 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

RED ZONE

  • JAX gets inside the 20 1.76 more times per game (2025 season)

    1.76 TRIPS

    CLE is at 2.24 red-zone trips per game over 17 games; JAX is at 4 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

  • JAX's red-zone scoring rate is 9.1 percentage points higher (2025 season)

    9.1 PP

    CLE is at 52.6% red-zone scoring rate over 17 games; JAX is at 61.8% over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

COACHING

  • CLE gives away 14.1 fewer penalty yards per game (2025 season)

    14.1 YDS

    CLE is at 49.4 penalty yards per game over 17 games; JAX is at 63.5 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

MISMATCH

  • JAX's passing attack against CLE's — 222.3 pass yards a game to 165.2 (2025 season)

    222.3 VS 165.2

    Jacksonville averaged 222.3 passing yards per game over 17 games in the 2025 regular season; Cleveland averaged 165.2 over 17. The gap compares passing offenses, not Jacksonville’s attack with Cleveland’s pass defense.

REPLACEMENT

  • Dylan Sampson (RB) is questionable for CLE

    QUESTIONABLE

    Sampson was on crutches and wearing a brace on the left knee he injured during Sunday's loss to Jacksonville, Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. Reported Sep 13.

  • Dillon Gabriel (QB) is ir-r for CLE

    IR-R

    ir Reported Sep 8.

  • LeQuint Allen Jr. (RB) is questionable for JAX

    QUESTIONABLE

    Allen (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Cleveland, Mia O'Brien of 1010 XL 92.5 FM Jacksonville reports. Reported Sep 11.

  • Taylen Green (QB) is inactive for CLE

    INACTIVE

    Green (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's matchup with the Jaguars. Reported Sep 13.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Teven Jenkins

    Out

    Back · Did not practice · Out

  • LeQuint Allen Jr.

    Questionable

    Hip · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Parker Brailsford

    Questionable

    Thumb · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Anton Harrison

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Maliek Collins

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Elgton Jenkins

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Cole Van Lanen

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Jakobi Meyers

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Carson Schwesinger

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • JAX moves the chains 5.2 more times per game (2025 season)

    5.2 FD

    CLE is at 15.8 first downs per game over 17 games; JAX is at 20.9 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

  • JAX's fourth-down conversion rate is 17.2 percentage points higher (2025 season)

    17.2 PP

    CLE is at 41.4% fourth-down conversion rate over 17 games; JAX is at 58.6% over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

  • JAX's third-down conversion rate is 5.6 percentage points higher (2025 season)

    5.6 PP

    CLE is at 33.6% third-down conversion rate over 17 games; JAX is at 39.2% over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

AFTER GARY

  • JAX -8.5 → -8.5

    NOW +0.91PP

    FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 9, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betrivers, betmgm.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

4
  • GARY'S PICK
    JAKOBI MEYERSRECEIVING YARDS OVER 37.5
    NFLJacksonville Jaguars· -113
    ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 40

    Jakobi Meyers
    Receiving Yards over 37.5

    -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 40

    Jacksonville Jaguars

    Meyers is the steady piece in this passing game, and Jacksonville should need his reliability against Cleveland's strong outside corners. His route volume and hands give him a high floor, while 37.5 yards leaves plenty of room for a normal afternoon.

  • GARY'S PICK
    HAROLD FANNIN JR.RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5
    NFLCleveland Browns· -160
    LOST · ACTUAL 2

    Harold Fannin Jr.
    Receptions over 3.5

    -160 · LOST · ACTUAL 2

    Cleveland Browns

    Cleveland's new offense should lean on Fannin as Watson's dependable middle-of-the-field outlet, especially with Jacksonville's pass rush testing a rebuilt line. Fannin's versatility and established target role make four catches a reasonable expectation.

  • THE LONG SHOT
    QUINSHON JUDKINSANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
    NFLCleveland Browns· +175
    LOST · ACTUAL 0

    Quinshon Judkins
    Anytime TD over 0.5

    +175 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

    Cleveland Browns

    Judkins is the Browns' primary back and their clearest goal-line option. Cleveland may have to be patient offensively, but a physical run game and a condensed red-zone package give him a strong chance to finish a drive.

  • THE LONG SHOT
    HAROLD FANNIN JR.ANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
    NFLCleveland Browns· +360
    LOST · ACTUAL 0

    Harold Fannin Jr.
    Anytime TD over 0.5

    +360 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

    Cleveland Browns

    Fannin is not dependent on one specific alignment to score. Cleveland can use him detached, inline or moving across the formation, creating matchup problems near the goal line. At this price, his role and finishing ability are worth backing.

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