New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
O/U 41.5 · SPREAD Jacksonville Jaguars -28.5 · EverBank Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- New England Patriots +2.5 +100
- Published odds
- +100
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 6-35
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 53 moves| Market | Opened Sep 21 6:00 AM | Close Sep 27 12:44 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115) | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-108) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 45 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | +1½ |
| MONEYLINE | Jacksonville Jaguars -145 | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 | −15 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 21 6:00 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115) | 45 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · New England Patriots +125 |
| Sep 21 8:00 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118) | 45 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -150 · New England Patriots +125 |
| Sep 21 9:31 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118) | 45 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · New England Patriots +125 |
| Sep 21 11:31 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118) | 45 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -150 · New England Patriots +125 |
| Sep 21 12:01 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118) | 45 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 21 12:32 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) | 45 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135 |
| Sep 21 1:02 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) | 45 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135 |
| Sep 21 5:15 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) | 45 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 21 5:35 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) | 45 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135 |
| Sep 21 5:55 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) | 45 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 21 6:05 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135 |
| Sep 21 7:17 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -190 · New England Patriots +155 |
| Sep 21 7:27 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135 |
| Sep 21 8:09 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-125) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 21 9:51 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135 |
| Sep 21 10:21 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -165 · New England Patriots +140 |
| Sep 22 8:30 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110) | 45 (-112) | Jacksonville Jaguars -165 · New England Patriots +138 |
| Sep 22 9:31 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110) | 45.5 (-112) | Jacksonville Jaguars -165 · New England Patriots +138 |
| Sep 22 5:57 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -165 · New England Patriots +138 |
| Sep 22 6:57 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -165 · New England Patriots +135 |
| Sep 22 8:58 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135 |
| Sep 22 11:58 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 23 11:04 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 23 2:05 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-108) | 45 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 23 3:05 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 23 4:06 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (+100) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 23 6:06 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-125) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 23 7:07 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (+100) | 45 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 23 9:08 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-125) | 45.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 23 9:39 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102) | 45.5 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 23 10:09 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102) | 46 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 23 11:10 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102) | 45.5 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 24 6:00 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (+100) | 46 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 24 8:00 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102) | 46 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 24 10:01 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-108) | 46 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 24 12:22 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102) | 46 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 24 6:16 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102) | 46 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 24 6:37 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102) | 46 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 24 7:17 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102) | 46 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 25 10:31 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102) | 46 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 25 9:05 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-125) | 46 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 26 12:01 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (+100) | 46 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 26 2:32 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-125) | 46 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 26 3:02 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) | 46 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 26 6:04 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) | 46 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 27 12:14 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-112) | 46 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 27 5:00 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-110) | 46 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · New England Patriots +120 |
| Sep 27 7:30 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 (-105) | 46 (-110) | Jacksonville Jaguars -125 · New England Patriots +105 |
| Sep 27 8:00 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 (-108) | 46 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -125 · New England Patriots +105 |
| Sep 27 8:30 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) | 46 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 27 10:00 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) | 46 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 27 11:22 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) | 46 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130 |
| Sep 27 12:34 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-118) | 46 (-120) | Jacksonville Jaguars +135 · New England Patriots -160 |
| CLOSESep 27 12:44 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135 |
The read
The single best unit on the field belongs to the road team, and the number does not make New England pay for it. The Patriots defense is allowing 4.57 yards per play, a 38.6% success rate and -0.182 EPA per play, with opponents converting just 17.4% on third down and a 78.1 opposing passer rating — that is the profile of a defense that keeps games low-scoring and close, and close is exactly what +2.5 is built to reward. The Jaguars' offense is the better offense (+0.142 EPA, 5.84 yds/play, 51.85% success, Lawrence 4 TD/1 INT), but it has not faced a defense like this, and Jacksonville's own pass defense is the softest spot in the matchup: 6.35 yards per play allowed, 9.30 yards per opponent attempt, a 97.4 opposing passer rating.
Maye has thrown for 386 yards and has the arm to exploit that, so this is not a case of the Patriots being unable to move it at all. Jacksonville's week also carries more real question marks than the price implies: Meyers (90% of week-2 snaps), Hainsey (100%) and Van Lanen (100%) are all questionable, and if any of that interior line or the receiver rotation is limited, a Patriots front generating an 8.2% sack rate and 17.8% QB-hit rate can get home and turn this into the grinding game I want. I also weight the game shape: Jacksonville has scored zero fourth-quarter points across two games with a -10.5 Q4 differential and blew a 10-3 halftime lead at Denver, while New England's win over Pittsburgh was defensively dominant — a late-game fade pattern from the home favorite is exactly the kind of margin that keeps a +2.5 dog live.
The best argument against me is real: Maye has four interceptions, the Patriots are -3 in turnovers, and Jacksonville is +2 with 75% red-zone touchdown efficiency, so the Jaguars converting short fields into a 7-10 point win is the live path to a loss. But at a near pick'em with the better defense and a 2.5-point cushion, I would rather be holding the side that wins the low-scoring, close game the numbers point to than laying points with the team whose defense can be thrown on.
Injuries noted
New England Patriots: Harold Landry III (PUP-R) — Landry (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Patriots on Sunday.; Brenden Schooler (NFI-R) — The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window for Schooler (back) on Wednesday.; Jeremiah Webb (IR) — Arm; Julian Hill (IR) — Knee; Myles Montgomery (IR) — ir; Bryce Baringer (IR) — The Patriots placed Baringer (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; Marcus Bryant (IR-R) — The Patriots placed Bryant (ankle) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Khalil Jacobs (IR) — The Patriots placed Jacobs (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; A.J. Brown (IR) — Brown, who was officially placed on injured reserve Saturday, is expected to miss about six weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Dametrious Crownover (Questionable) — questionable; Carlton Davis III (Questionable) — questionable; Dre'Mont Jones (Out) — Jones (shoulder) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jaguars.; Mike Onwenu (IR) — The Patriots placed Onwenu (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Dell Pettus (IR) — The Patriots placed Pettus (ankle) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Eli Raridon (Questionable) — Raridon (thigh) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Jaguars.; Craig Woodson (Questionable) — Woodson (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jaguars.; Reggie Gilliam (Questionable) — Gilliam (knee) was a limited participant at the Patriots' practice Wednesday.; Quintayvious Hutchins (IR) — Hutchins (knee) was placed on injured reserve Friday.; Morgan Moses (Questionable) — questionable
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Bartlett (IR) — ir; Garrett DiGiorgio (IR) — ir; Zach Durfee (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Durfee (upper body) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Matt Zenitz of CBSSports.com reports.; Parker Hughes (IR) — ir; Patrick Mekari (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Mekari (back) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Sam Mustipher (IR) — The Jaguars placed Mustipher (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.; B.J. Green II (IR) — The Jaguars placed Green (elbow) on injured reserve Wednesday.; LeQuint Allen Jr. (Questionable) — Allen (hip) was limited in practice Thursday.; Jakobi Meyers (Questionable) — Meyers (thumb) was a limited practice participant Thursday.; Cole Van Lanen (Questionable) — questionable; DaVon Hamilton (Questionable) — Hamilton (back) was a limited participant at the Jaguars' practice Wednesday.; Robert Hainsey (Questionable) — questionable; Albert Regis (Doubtful) — doubtful
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Trevor Lawrence is the projected starting quarterback for JAX
8.35 Y/AThrough 2 games in 2026, Trevor Lawrence threw for 434 passing yards, completed 67.3% of his passes and averaged 8.35 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4007 yards, completed 60.9% and averaged 7.16 yards per attempt, 29-12 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
Drake Maye is the projected starting quarterback for NE
7.02 Y/AThrough 2 games in 2026, Drake Maye threw for 386 passing yards, completed 67.3% of his passes and averaged 7.02 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4394 yards, completed 72% and averaged 8.93 yards per attempt, 31-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
PASS RUSH
JAX: 1.5 sacks taken per game to NE's 3
1.5 SACKSNE is at 3 sacks taken per game over 2 games; JAX is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NE was at 3 over 17 games and JAX at 3.42 over 17 games.
NE: 3 sacks recorded per game to JAX's 2.5
0.5 SACKSNE is at 3 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; JAX is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.
PACE & SCRIPT
JAX: 23.5 points per game to NE's 15
8.5 PPGNE is at 15 points per game over 2 games; JAX is at 23.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NE was at 28.8 over 17 games and JAX at 27.9 over 17 games.
NE: 8 points allowed per game to JAX's 15
7 PPGNE is at 8 points allowed per game over 2 games; JAX is at 15 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NE was at 18.8 over 17 games and JAX at 19.8 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
JAX: 1.5 takeaways per game to NE's 1
0.5 TONE is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; JAX is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
JAX: 5.65 yards per play to NE's 5.15
0.5 Y/PJacksonville has been more efficient per snap through two games, but New England's six plays of 20-plus yards last game show its offense can stretch a defense. The Jaguars are above their 17-game level from last season, while New England is well below its own despite Drake Maye's 63-yard completion and Henderson's 39-yard touchdown run. That makes the early gap vulnerable to movement if New England's big plays become steadier drives.
RED ZONE
JAX: 75% red-zone scoring rate to NE's 33.3%
41.7 PPJacksonville has finished red-zone trips far more often through 2 games, while New England's 33.3% is well below its 57.1% rate last season. Jacksonville's 75% is also above its 61.8% mark last season. With only 2 games behind both rates, the matchup is more about which offense turns chances into touchdowns than a settled identity.
NE: 0% red-zone scoring allowed to JAX's 28.6%
28.6 PPNew England has yet to allow a red-zone score through 2 games, while Jacksonville has allowed them on 28.6% of trips. Zero percent is a sharp start, but two games leave little room to separate strong defense from a few favorable situations.
MISMATCH
JAX: 0.5 turnovers a game to NE's 2.5
0.5 VS 2.5Jacksonville has committed 0.5 turnovers a game through 2 games, while New England is at 2.5. Jacksonville is below its 1.06 turnover rate last season, but New England has climbed sharply from 0.94, making ball security the obvious early split. New England needs to protect possessions to prevent Jacksonville from gaining extra drives and field position, a factor that can swing game script quickly.
COVERAGE
NE: 4.7 yards per play allowed to JAX's 6.1
1.4 Y/PNew England has allowed 4.7 yards per play, compared with 6.1 for Jacksonville. Each mark comes from 2 games, so the gap captures an early efficiency split rather than a full defensive profile. New England has limited opposing plays better so far, while yards-per-play angles need context that this fact sheet does not provide.
NE: 166 passing yards allowed per game to JAX's 236.5
70.5 YPGNew England has held opposing passing games down more than Jacksonville through 2 games. It is an early edge for the Patriots' pass defense, but the sample is small enough that one game can reshape the numbers.
NE: 17.4% third downs allowed to JAX's 26.3%
8.9 PPNE is at 17.4% third downs allowed over 2 games; JAX is at 26.3% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.
REPLACEMENT
Brenden Schooler (S) is nfi-r for NE
NFI-RSchooler's 21-day practice window is open after a back injury kept him on the non-football injury list. He is eligible to practice, but the report does not say he is active for New England at Jacksonville. His return timeline depends on whether the Patriots activate him during that window.
Dell Pettus (S) is on injured reserve for NE
IRPettus is on injured reserve with an ankle injury after New England placed him there Wednesday. He is unavailable at Jacksonville, and the Patriots have not named a replacement safety here.
Quintayvious Hutchins (LB) is on injured reserve for NE
IRHutchins is on injured reserve after New England placed him there Friday with a knee injury. He is unavailable at Jacksonville, with no replacement linebacker listed on the fact sheet.
Mike Onwenu (G) is on injured reserve for NE
IROnwenu is on injured reserve with an ankle injury after New England placed him there Tuesday. He is unavailable at Jacksonville, and the fact sheet does not name the guard who takes his snaps.
B.J. Green II (DE) is on injured reserve for JAX
IRGreen is on injured reserve with an elbow injury after Jacksonville placed him there Wednesday. He is unavailable against New England, with no replacement defensive end listed on the fact sheet.
PRACTICE REPORT
Dre'Mont Jones
OutShoulder · Did not practice · Out
Albert Regis
DoubtfulElbow · Limited practice · Doubtful
Craig Woodson
QuestionableShoulder · Limited practice · Questionable
Eli Raridon
QuestionableThigh · Did not practice · Questionable
LeQuint Allen Jr.
LPLimited practice
Morgan Moses
LPLimited practice
Ben Brown
LPLimited practice
Reggie Gilliam
LPLimited practice
DaVon Hamilton
LPLimited practice
Brian Thomas Jr.
LPLimited practice
Foyesade Oluokun
FPFull practice
TreVeyon Henderson
FPFull practice
Carlton Davis III
FPFull practice
Dametrious Crownover
FPCoach's Decision · Full practice
Robert Spillane
FPFull practice
Robert Hainsey
FPFull practice
Jakobi Meyers
FPFull practice
DaQuan Jones
FPFull practice
Branson Combs
FPFull practice
Cole Van Lanen
FPFull practice
Christian Braswell
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
NE (1-1) at JAX (1-1)
+3 PT GAPNew England and Jacksonville are both 1-1, but Jacksonville is +17 and New England is +14. The Patriots lost their only road game, while the Jaguars won their only home game, so the venue results reinforce Jacksonville's small margin edge. With only two games for each club, the records are level, but Jacksonville has the more favorable early setup in this building.
AFTER GARY
NE +2.5 → +2.5
NO MOVEGary's number was 2.5; the market closed at 2.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKROMEO DOUBSRECEPTIONS UNDER 3.5
I’ll take under 3.5 receptions at -140. Doubs has drawn seven targets in two games and played 67% of New England’s offensive snaps last week. Four catches asks for more volume than his current role has produced. Jacksonville’s pass defense is the strongest case against this pick: it has allowed 20 catches to wide receivers in two games, giving Maye a reason to throw.
- GARY'S PICKBHAYSHUL TUTENRECEPTIONS UNDER 1.5
I’ll take under 1.5 receptions at -108. Tuten has three targets across Jacksonville’s two games and played roughly half the offensive snaps last week.
His rushing work is clear; the passing work has been sparse. New England has allowed eight catches to running backs in two games, and Tuten caught two passes last week.
Those are real paths to a second catch, especially if Jacksonville needs quick throws.
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