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NFL · Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars

O/U 41.5 · SPREAD Jacksonville Jaguars -28.5 · EverBank Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Patriots +2.5
NFL@ Jaguars· +100

Patriots
+2.5

+100 · LOST · NE 6 · JAX 35

Jaguars

The pick & result

Published pick
New England Patriots +2.5 +100
Published odds
+100
Result
Lost
Final score
6-35

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 53 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 21 6:00 AM
Close
Sep 27 12:44 PM
Move
SPREADJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-108)+½
TOTAL45 (-110)46.5 (-108)+1½
MONEYLINEJacksonville Jaguars -145Jacksonville Jaguars -160−15
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 21 6:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)45 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · New England Patriots +125
Sep 21 8:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)45 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -150 · New England Patriots +125
Sep 21 9:31 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)45 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · New England Patriots +125
Sep 21 11:31 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)45 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -150 · New England Patriots +125
Sep 21 12:01 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)45 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 21 12:32 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105)45 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135
Sep 21 1:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105)45 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135
Sep 21 5:15 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105)45 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 21 5:35 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105)45 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135
Sep 21 5:55 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105)45 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 21 6:05 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135
Sep 21 7:17 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -190 · New England Patriots +155
Sep 21 7:27 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135
Sep 21 8:09 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-125)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 21 9:51 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135
Sep 21 10:21 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -165 · New England Patriots +140
Sep 22 8:30 AMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110)45 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -165 · New England Patriots +138
Sep 22 9:31 AMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110)45.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -165 · New England Patriots +138
Sep 22 5:57 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -165 · New England Patriots +138
Sep 22 6:57 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -165 · New England Patriots +135
Sep 22 8:58 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135
Sep 22 11:58 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 23 11:04 AMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 23 2:05 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-108)45 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 23 3:05 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 23 4:06 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (+100)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 23 6:06 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-125)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 23 7:07 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (+100)45 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 23 9:08 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-125)45.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 23 9:39 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102)45.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 23 10:09 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102)46 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 23 11:10 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102)45.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 24 6:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (+100)46 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 24 8:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102)46 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 24 10:01 AMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-108)46 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 24 12:22 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102)46 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 24 6:16 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102)46 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 24 6:37 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102)46 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 24 7:17 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102)46 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 25 10:31 AMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-102)46 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 25 9:05 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-125)46 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 26 12:01 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (+100)46 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 26 2:32 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-125)46 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 26 3:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105)46 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 26 6:04 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105)46 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 27 12:14 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-112)46 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 27 5:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-110)46 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · New England Patriots +120
Sep 27 7:30 AMJacksonville Jaguars -1.5 (-105)46 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -125 · New England Patriots +105
Sep 27 8:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars +1.5 (-108)46 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -125 · New England Patriots +105
Sep 27 8:30 AMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105)46 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 27 10:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105)46 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 27 11:22 AMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105)46 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -155 · New England Patriots +130
Sep 27 12:34 PMJacksonville Jaguars +3 (-118)46 (-120)Jacksonville Jaguars +135 · New England Patriots -160
CLOSESep 27 12:44 PMJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-108)46.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -160 · New England Patriots +135

The read

The single best unit on the field belongs to the road team, and the number does not make New England pay for it. The Patriots defense is allowing 4.57 yards per play, a 38.6% success rate and -0.182 EPA per play, with opponents converting just 17.4% on third down and a 78.1 opposing passer rating — that is the profile of a defense that keeps games low-scoring and close, and close is exactly what +2.5 is built to reward. The Jaguars' offense is the better offense (+0.142 EPA, 5.84 yds/play, 51.85% success, Lawrence 4 TD/1 INT), but it has not faced a defense like this, and Jacksonville's own pass defense is the softest spot in the matchup: 6.35 yards per play allowed, 9.30 yards per opponent attempt, a 97.4 opposing passer rating.

Maye has thrown for 386 yards and has the arm to exploit that, so this is not a case of the Patriots being unable to move it at all. Jacksonville's week also carries more real question marks than the price implies: Meyers (90% of week-2 snaps), Hainsey (100%) and Van Lanen (100%) are all questionable, and if any of that interior line or the receiver rotation is limited, a Patriots front generating an 8.2% sack rate and 17.8% QB-hit rate can get home and turn this into the grinding game I want. I also weight the game shape: Jacksonville has scored zero fourth-quarter points across two games with a -10.5 Q4 differential and blew a 10-3 halftime lead at Denver, while New England's win over Pittsburgh was defensively dominant — a late-game fade pattern from the home favorite is exactly the kind of margin that keeps a +2.5 dog live.

The best argument against me is real: Maye has four interceptions, the Patriots are -3 in turnovers, and Jacksonville is +2 with 75% red-zone touchdown efficiency, so the Jaguars converting short fields into a 7-10 point win is the live path to a loss. But at a near pick'em with the better defense and a 2.5-point cushion, I would rather be holding the side that wins the low-scoring, close game the numbers point to than laying points with the team whose defense can be thrown on.

Injuries noted

New England Patriots: Harold Landry III (PUP-R) — Landry (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Patriots on Sunday.; Brenden Schooler (NFI-R) — The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window for Schooler (back) on Wednesday.; Jeremiah Webb (IR) — Arm; Julian Hill (IR) — Knee; Myles Montgomery (IR) — ir; Bryce Baringer (IR) — The Patriots placed Baringer (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; Marcus Bryant (IR-R) — The Patriots placed Bryant (ankle) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Khalil Jacobs (IR) — The Patriots placed Jacobs (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; A.J. Brown (IR) — Brown, who was officially placed on injured reserve Saturday, is expected to miss about six weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Dametrious Crownover (Questionable) — questionable; Carlton Davis III (Questionable) — questionable; Dre'Mont Jones (Out) — Jones (shoulder) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jaguars.; Mike Onwenu (IR) — The Patriots placed Onwenu (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Dell Pettus (IR) — The Patriots placed Pettus (ankle) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Eli Raridon (Questionable) — Raridon (thigh) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Jaguars.; Craig Woodson (Questionable) — Woodson (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jaguars.; Reggie Gilliam (Questionable) — Gilliam (knee) was a limited participant at the Patriots' practice Wednesday.; Quintayvious Hutchins (IR) — Hutchins (knee) was placed on injured reserve Friday.; Morgan Moses (Questionable) — questionable

Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Bartlett (IR) — ir; Garrett DiGiorgio (IR) — ir; Zach Durfee (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Durfee (upper body) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Matt Zenitz of CBSSports.com reports.; Parker Hughes (IR) — ir; Patrick Mekari (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Mekari (back) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Sam Mustipher (IR) — The Jaguars placed Mustipher (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.; B.J. Green II (IR) — The Jaguars placed Green (elbow) on injured reserve Wednesday.; LeQuint Allen Jr. (Questionable) — Allen (hip) was limited in practice Thursday.; Jakobi Meyers (Questionable) — Meyers (thumb) was a limited practice participant Thursday.; Cole Van Lanen (Questionable) — questionable; DaVon Hamilton (Questionable) — Hamilton (back) was a limited participant at the Jaguars' practice Wednesday.; Robert Hainsey (Questionable) — questionable; Albert Regis (Doubtful) — doubtful

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Trevor Lawrence is the projected starting quarterback for JAX

    8.35 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Trevor Lawrence threw for 434 passing yards, completed 67.3% of his passes and averaged 8.35 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4007 yards, completed 60.9% and averaged 7.16 yards per attempt, 29-12 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

  • Drake Maye is the projected starting quarterback for NE

    7.02 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Drake Maye threw for 386 passing yards, completed 67.3% of his passes and averaged 7.02 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4394 yards, completed 72% and averaged 8.93 yards per attempt, 31-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

PASS RUSH

  • JAX: 1.5 sacks taken per game to NE's 3

    1.5 SACKS

    NE is at 3 sacks taken per game over 2 games; JAX is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NE was at 3 over 17 games and JAX at 3.42 over 17 games.

  • NE: 3 sacks recorded per game to JAX's 2.5

    0.5 SACKS

    NE is at 3 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; JAX is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • JAX: 23.5 points per game to NE's 15

    8.5 PPG

    NE is at 15 points per game over 2 games; JAX is at 23.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NE was at 28.8 over 17 games and JAX at 27.9 over 17 games.

  • NE: 8 points allowed per game to JAX's 15

    7 PPG

    NE is at 8 points allowed per game over 2 games; JAX is at 15 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season NE was at 18.8 over 17 games and JAX at 19.8 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • JAX: 1.5 takeaways per game to NE's 1

    0.5 TO

    NE is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; JAX is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • JAX: 5.65 yards per play to NE's 5.15

    0.5 Y/P

    Jacksonville has been more efficient per snap through two games, but New England's six plays of 20-plus yards last game show its offense can stretch a defense. The Jaguars are above their 17-game level from last season, while New England is well below its own despite Drake Maye's 63-yard completion and Henderson's 39-yard touchdown run. That makes the early gap vulnerable to movement if New England's big plays become steadier drives.

RED ZONE

  • JAX: 75% red-zone scoring rate to NE's 33.3%

    41.7 PP

    Jacksonville has finished red-zone trips far more often through 2 games, while New England's 33.3% is well below its 57.1% rate last season. Jacksonville's 75% is also above its 61.8% mark last season. With only 2 games behind both rates, the matchup is more about which offense turns chances into touchdowns than a settled identity.

  • NE: 0% red-zone scoring allowed to JAX's 28.6%

    28.6 PP

    New England has yet to allow a red-zone score through 2 games, while Jacksonville has allowed them on 28.6% of trips. Zero percent is a sharp start, but two games leave little room to separate strong defense from a few favorable situations.

MISMATCH

  • JAX: 0.5 turnovers a game to NE's 2.5

    0.5 VS 2.5

    Jacksonville has committed 0.5 turnovers a game through 2 games, while New England is at 2.5. Jacksonville is below its 1.06 turnover rate last season, but New England has climbed sharply from 0.94, making ball security the obvious early split. New England needs to protect possessions to prevent Jacksonville from gaining extra drives and field position, a factor that can swing game script quickly.

COVERAGE

  • NE: 4.7 yards per play allowed to JAX's 6.1

    1.4 Y/P

    New England has allowed 4.7 yards per play, compared with 6.1 for Jacksonville. Each mark comes from 2 games, so the gap captures an early efficiency split rather than a full defensive profile. New England has limited opposing plays better so far, while yards-per-play angles need context that this fact sheet does not provide.

  • NE: 166 passing yards allowed per game to JAX's 236.5

    70.5 YPG

    New England has held opposing passing games down more than Jacksonville through 2 games. It is an early edge for the Patriots' pass defense, but the sample is small enough that one game can reshape the numbers.

  • NE: 17.4% third downs allowed to JAX's 26.3%

    8.9 PP

    NE is at 17.4% third downs allowed over 2 games; JAX is at 26.3% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

REPLACEMENT

  • Brenden Schooler (S) is nfi-r for NE

    NFI-R

    Schooler's 21-day practice window is open after a back injury kept him on the non-football injury list. He is eligible to practice, but the report does not say he is active for New England at Jacksonville. His return timeline depends on whether the Patriots activate him during that window.

  • Dell Pettus (S) is on injured reserve for NE

    IR

    Pettus is on injured reserve with an ankle injury after New England placed him there Wednesday. He is unavailable at Jacksonville, and the Patriots have not named a replacement safety here.

  • Quintayvious Hutchins (LB) is on injured reserve for NE

    IR

    Hutchins is on injured reserve after New England placed him there Friday with a knee injury. He is unavailable at Jacksonville, with no replacement linebacker listed on the fact sheet.

  • Mike Onwenu (G) is on injured reserve for NE

    IR

    Onwenu is on injured reserve with an ankle injury after New England placed him there Tuesday. He is unavailable at Jacksonville, and the fact sheet does not name the guard who takes his snaps.

  • B.J. Green II (DE) is on injured reserve for JAX

    IR

    Green is on injured reserve with an elbow injury after Jacksonville placed him there Wednesday. He is unavailable against New England, with no replacement defensive end listed on the fact sheet.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Dre'Mont Jones

    Out

    Shoulder · Did not practice · Out

  • Albert Regis

    Doubtful

    Elbow · Limited practice · Doubtful

  • Craig Woodson

    Questionable

    Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Eli Raridon

    Questionable

    Thigh · Did not practice · Questionable

  • LeQuint Allen Jr.

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Morgan Moses

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Ben Brown

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Reggie Gilliam

    LP

    Limited practice

  • DaVon Hamilton

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Brian Thomas Jr.

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Foyesade Oluokun

    FP

    Full practice

  • TreVeyon Henderson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Carlton Davis III

    FP

    Full practice

  • Dametrious Crownover

    FP

    Coach's Decision · Full practice

  • Robert Spillane

    FP

    Full practice

  • Robert Hainsey

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jakobi Meyers

    FP

    Full practice

  • DaQuan Jones

    FP

    Full practice

  • Branson Combs

    FP

    Full practice

  • Cole Van Lanen

    FP

    Full practice

  • Christian Braswell

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • NE (1-1) at JAX (1-1)

    +3 PT GAP

    New England and Jacksonville are both 1-1, but Jacksonville is +17 and New England is +14. The Patriots lost their only road game, while the Jaguars won their only home game, so the venue results reinforce Jacksonville's small margin edge. With only two games for each club, the records are level, but Jacksonville has the more favorable early setup in this building.

AFTER GARY

  • NE +2.5 → +2.5

    NO MOVE

    Gary's number was 2.5; the market closed at 2.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    ROMEO DOUBSRECEPTIONS UNDER 3.5
    NFLNew England Patriots· -140

    Romeo Doubs
    Receptions under 3.5

    -140 · CASHED · ACTUAL 3

    New England Patriots

    I’ll take under 3.5 receptions at -140. Doubs has drawn seven targets in two games and played 67% of New England’s offensive snaps last week. Four catches asks for more volume than his current role has produced. Jacksonville’s pass defense is the strongest case against this pick: it has allowed 20 catches to wide receivers in two games, giving Maye a reason to throw.

  • GARY'S PICK
    BHAYSHUL TUTENRECEPTIONS UNDER 1.5
    NFLJacksonville Jaguars· -108

    Bhayshul Tuten
    Receptions under 1.5

    -108 · LOST · ACTUAL 2

    Jacksonville Jaguars

    I’ll take under 1.5 receptions at -108. Tuten has three targets across Jacksonville’s two games and played roughly half the offensive snaps last week.

    His rushing work is clear; the passing work has been sparse. New England has allowed eight catches to running backs in two games, and Tuten caught two passes last week.

    Those are real paths to a second catch, especially if Jacksonville needs quick throws.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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