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NFL · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

O/U 39.5 · SPREAD Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 · Paycor Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Jaguars Moneyline
NFL@ Bengals· +116
✓ CASHED · JAX 22 · CIN 17

Jaguars
Moneyline

+116 · CASHED · JAX 22 · CIN 17

Bengals

The pick & result

Published pick
Jacksonville Jaguars ML +116
Published odds
+116
Result
Won
Final score
22-17

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

FANATICS · 46 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 28 1:46 PM		Close
Oct 4 12:50 PM		Move
SPREADCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)Price
TOTAL51 (-110)52 (-110)+1
MONEYLINECincinnati Bengals -140Cincinnati Bengals -145−5
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 28 1:46 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-110)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -140 · Jacksonville Jaguars +115
Sep 28 2:16 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -140 · Jacksonville Jaguars +115
Sep 28 2:47 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Sep 28 3:47 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Sep 28 4:17 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Sep 28 9:45 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Sep 29 12:15 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Sep 29 6:30 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -140 · Jacksonville Jaguars +115
Sep 29 10:01 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Sep 30 6:00 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51.5 (-105)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Sep 30 12:34 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Sep 30 9:05 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Sep 30 9:35 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Oct 1 10:31 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51.5 (-105)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 1 12:32 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 1 1:33 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 1 2:03 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 1 3:34 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 1 6:25 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-105)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 1 8:46 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 2 8:00 AMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-105)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 2 9:00 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 2 5:32 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51.5 (-105)Cincinnati Bengals -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Oct 2 7:02 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-105)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Oct 3 11:39 AMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-105)52 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Oct 3 1:39 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-105)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Oct 3 2:10 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-105)52 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Oct 3 5:12 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-105)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Oct 3 7:19 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-105)52 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Oct 3 8:50 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)52 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 5:00 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 7:20 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -150 · Jacksonville Jaguars +125
Oct 4 8:22 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 8:32 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 8:52 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 9:11 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 9:31 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)52 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 10:00 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 10:10 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)52 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 11:30 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-120)52 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 11:50 AMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 12:00 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51.5 (-115)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 12:10 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 12:20 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51.5 (-115)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 12:30 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120
Oct 4 12:40 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)51.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -140 · Jacksonville Jaguars +115
CLOSEOct 4 12:50 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)52 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Jacksonville Jaguars +120

The read

I'm taking Jacksonville to win outright at a plus price. I make this game close to a coin flip, so +116 is the edge. The price only needs Jacksonville to win about 46% of the time, and I have them closer to 48%.

**1. Cincinnati's secondary has been rebuilt this week, against the more efficient offense.** These changes came after the Pittsburgh game, so the price may not fully reflect them. - Slot corner Jalen Davis went on injured reserve on 9/29. - Safety Kyle Dugger was ruled out on 10/2. He played 66% of the snaps at Pittsburgh. - Safety Bryan Cook is questionable after a limited week. - Dax Hill moves inside to cover Parker Washington. DJ Ivey, who has played 17 defensive snaps all year, takes Hill's spot outside.

Jacksonville's offense has been the better unit through three games: - EPA per play: 0.174 vs 0.058. - Success rate: .515 vs .443. - Early-down EPA: 0.132 vs 0.01. - Third down: 52.9%.

The Jaguars run first and stay ahead of the chains. This Cincinnati defense just gave up 411 yards to Pittsburgh, including 127 rushing yards to Jaylen Warren. Cincinnati allowed 28.9 points a game in 2025, and three games against Tampa Bay, Houston and Pittsburgh don't prove that has changed, especially with the back end reshuffled.

**2. In the red zone, Jacksonville finishes and Cincinnati settles for field goals.** - Cincinnati has scored touchdowns on only 4 of 8 red-zone trips. Jacksonville's defense has allowed 2 touchdowns on 10 trips. - Jacksonville has scored touchdowns on 8 of 9 trips. - Evan McPherson (8 for 8) keeps Cincinnati scoring, but a team that trades field goals for touchdowns tends to lose close games it should win. - Jacksonville has 6 takeaways and an interception in 8 straight games. Cincinnati has lost 2 fumbles, including the one that ended the Pittsburgh game. - The 2025 baseline points the same way: Jacksonville went 13-4 under the same Coen and Campanile staff, and Cincinnati went 6-11.

**The best case against this bet is real.** - Jacksonville gives up 8.79 yards per pass attempt. Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and a sharp Joe Burrow can hurt that. - Dexter Lawrence against rookie guard Emmanuel Pregnon is a mismatch to watch. - Both of Jacksonville's blowout wins came at home. On the road at Denver, they blew a 13-3 lead. - Cam Little is 0 for 2 from 50+ yards this season, which matters in a game that comes down to a kick. - Cincinnati has won four straight in this series, though with different rosters. - This ticket needs Jacksonville to win the game, so any Cincinnati win, even by 1, loses it.

I still think Jacksonville is at least even with Cincinnati before home field, and the secondary shuffle tilts the matchup further toward the Jaguars. That makes the plus money worth taking.

Inactive lists weren't out when I did this research (about 9:20 AM ET). Cook and Jacksonville's questionable corners (Braswell, Brown) are still unconfirmed.

Injuries noted

Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Bartlett (IR) — ir; Garrett DiGiorgio (IR) — ir; Zach Durfee (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Durfee (upper body) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Matt Zenitz of CBSSports.com reports.; Parker Hughes (IR) — ir; Patrick Mekari (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Mekari (back) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Sam Mustipher (IR) — The Jaguars placed Mustipher (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.; B.J. Green II (IR) — The Jaguars placed Green (elbow) on injured reserve Wednesday.; LeQuint Allen Jr. (Questionable) — Allen (hip) was limited in Thursday's practice.; Jakobi Meyers (Questionable) — Meyers (thumb) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.; Cole Van Lanen (Questionable) — questionable; DaVon Hamilton (Questionable) — questionable; Albert Regis (Questionable) — questionable; Christian Braswell (Questionable) — questionable; Montaric Brown (Questionable) — questionable; Nate Boerkircher (Questionable) — Boerkircher (illness) did not practice Thursday, Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com reports.

Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Parker II (IR-R) — ir; Ja'Sir Taylor (IR-R) — The Bengals placed Taylor (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Geoff Hobson of the team's official site reports.; B.J. Hill (Questionable) — questionable; Andrei Iosivas (IR) — The Bengals placed Iosivas (thumb) on injured reserve Saturday.; Colbie Young (Out) — Young (knee) is not expected to play in Week 4 against the Jaguars, Jay Morrison of SI.com reports.; Bryan Cook (Questionable) — Cook (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jaguars.; Jalen Davis (IR) — The Bengals placed Davis (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Jordan Battle (Questionable) — questionable; Kyle Dugger (Out) — Dugger (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Jaguars, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports.; Dalton Risner (Questionable) — questionable; Swayze Bozeman (Questionable) — questionable; DJ Turner II (Questionable) — questionable

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Joe Burrow is the projected starting quarterback for CIN

    7.21 Y/A

    Through 3 games in 2026, Joe Burrow threw for 743 passing yards, completed 70.9% of his passes and averaged 7.21 yards per attempt. Last season over 8 games he threw for 1809 yards, completed 66.8% and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt, 17-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

  • Trevor Lawrence is the projected starting quarterback for JAX

    7.61 Y/A

    Through 3 games in 2026, Trevor Lawrence threw for 616 passing yards, completed 66.7% of his passes and averaged 7.61 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4007 yards, completed 60.9% and averaged 7.16 yards per attempt, 29-12 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

TRENCHES

  • JAX: 119.3 rushing yards per game to CIN's 91.3

    28 YPG

    JAX is at 119.3 rushing yards per game over 3 games; CIN is at 91.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season JAX was at 115.1 over 17 games and CIN at 93.6 over 17 games.

PASS RUSH

  • JAX: 1.33 sacks taken per game to CIN's 2.33

    1 SACKS

    Jacksonville's line is keeping its quarterback cleaner than Cincinnati's through three games each, a sharp turn from last season when JAX gave up 3.42 sacks a game and CIN 2.12. Three games is a small window, so expect both numbers to drift back toward those full-season marks. The Jaguars' change is the bigger story: if the protection is real, they can stay on schedule, while the Bengals' rise from last season points to drives stalling on long downs.

  • CIN: 3.33 sacks recorded per game to JAX's 2.67

    0.67 SACKS

    Cincinnati records 3.33 sacks a game over 3 games, and Jacksonville is at 2.67. Both are active pass rushes, with the Bengals ahead by a small margin. Sacks swing on which lines a defense faced, so these could narrow. Expect pressure on both quarterbacks, which tends to stall drives and can help an under if both fronts keep this pace.

  • JAX: 10.3 sack yards lost per game to CIN's 15.7

    5.3 YDS

    JAX is at 10.3 sack yards lost per game over 3 games; CIN is at 15.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season JAX was at 20.6 over 17 games and CIN at 14.1 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • JAX: 12 points allowed per game to CIN's 21

    9 PPG

    Jacksonville has allowed 12 points a game through three games, down from 19.8 last season, and Cincinnati has gone from 28.9 allowed to 21. Both defenses have improved, with the Jaguars' jump large enough that three games could be overstating it. Expect the Jacksonville number to drift up some, so lean on last season's figure as a check before treating this as a low-scoring game.

  • JAX @ CIN carries a 51.5 market total

    51.5

    At 51.5, this game sits 5 points above the 46.5 slate median, so the market expects touchdowns to come often and from both sides. The sheet offers no stats or names to explain why, so the price itself is the signal. For it to fall short, drives would have to stall into field goals or one offense would have to go quiet. A slow, low-scoring first half matters more here, since the total assumes points arrive steadily.

TURNOVERS

  • JAX: 0 fumbles lost per game to CIN's 0.67

    0.67 FUM

    JAX is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 3 games; CIN is at 0.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season JAX was at 0.35 over 17 games and CIN at 0.41 over 17 games.

RED ZONE

  • JAX: 88.9% red-zone scoring rate to CIN's 50%

    38.9 PP

    Jacksonville has scored on 88.9% of red-zone trips through three games, while Cincinnati sits at 50%. Last season had it reversed, the Jaguars at 61.8% and the Bengals at 66.7%, so both numbers look due to move back toward the middle. Red-zone rates swing on a few drives, so a Jaguars team scoring this efficiently is likely to cool off on the road.

MISMATCH

  • JAX: 12 points allowed a game to CIN's 21

    12 VS 21

    Jacksonville is allowing 12 points a game over three games, Cincinnati 21. Both defenses improved on last season, 19.8 for Jacksonville and 28.9 for Cincinnati, and three games makes the Jaguars number look better than it probably is. The Bengals have still allowed more both seasons, so Jacksonville is the steadier defense in this matchup on the road.

COVERAGE

  • JAX: 29% third downs allowed to CIN's 43.6%

    14.6 PP

    Jacksonville lets opponents convert just 29% of third downs, while Cincinnati allows 43.6%. That is three games each, and third-down rates jump around early, so expect Jacksonville's number to rise some. For now the Jaguars are the defense getting off the field, and Cincinnati's is the one extending drives. That favors Jacksonville sustaining possessions in this game.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • CIN lead the series with JAX since 2025

    1-0 SERIES

    There is only one meeting to go on: Cincinnati beat Jacksonville 31-27 at home on Sep 14 last season. That was a high-scoring game decided late, with both offenses moving the ball. One game from last September tells you little about this matchup, so weigh it lightly. If anything, it suggests these offenses can trade scores, which is worth keeping in mind when thinking about the total.

REPLACEMENT

  • Andrei Iosivas (WR) is on injured reserve for CIN

    IR

    Iosivas went on injured reserve Sep 26 with a thumb injury, so he is out against Jacksonville. He is a depth receiver, and Cincinnati's other wideouts take his snaps. The effect on the Bengals' offense is small.

  • Jalen Davis (CB) is on injured reserve for CIN

    IR

    Davis landed on injured reserve Tuesday with a hamstring injury, so Cincinnati is without a cornerback against Jacksonville. That thins out the Bengals' secondary depth, and the next corner up takes his snaps. Jaguars receivers may see a slightly softer group behind the starters.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Colbie Young

    Out

    Knee · Did not practice · Out

  • Kyle Dugger

    Out

    Quadricep · Did not practice · Out

  • Bryan Cook

    Questionable

    Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Swayze Bozeman

    Questionable

    Groin · Did not practice · Questionable

  • B.J. Hill

    Questionable

    Achilles · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Albert Regis

    Questionable

    Elbow · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Montaric Brown

    Questionable

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Christian Braswell

    Questionable

    Knee · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Dalton Risner

    Questionable

    Knee · Full practice · Questionable

  • Dexter Lawrence II

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • DJ Turner II

    LP

    Limited practice

  • LeQuint Allen Jr.

    LP

    Limited practice

  • DaVon Hamilton

    FP

    Full practice

  • Cole Van Lanen

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jakobi Meyers

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jarrian Jones

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jonathan Allen

    FP

    Full practice

  • Nate Boerkircher

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jordan Battle

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • JAX (2-1) at CIN (2-1)

    -29 PT GAP

    Same 2-1 record, but Jacksonville is +46 and Cincinnati is +17, so the Jaguars have won more convincingly. The splits are a single game each: Jacksonville 0-1 on the road, Cincinnati 1-0 at home, which is too little to say much. The Bengals come in off a loss and the Jaguars off a win. With the home team holding the weaker margin, the road side's profile deserves a closer look.

  • JAX: 22.3 first downs per game to CIN's 19

    3.3 FD

    JAX is at 22.3 first downs per game over 3 games; CIN is at 19 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season JAX was at 20.9 over 17 games and CIN at 20.7 over 17 games.

  • JAX: 52.9% third-down conversion rate to CIN's 46.3%

    6.6 PP

    JAX is at 52.9% third-down conversion rate over 3 games; CIN is at 46.3% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season JAX was at 39.2% over 17 games and CIN at 43.4% over 17 games.

  • JAX: 40.3 penalty yards per game to CIN's 55

    14.7 YDS

    JAX is at 40.3 penalty yards per game over 3 games; CIN is at 55 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season JAX was at 63.5 over 17 games and CIN at 37.2 over 17 games.

  • JAX: 7.1 yards per pass attempt to CIN's 6.33

    0.77 Y/A

    JAX is at 7.1 yards per pass attempt over 3 games; CIN is at 6.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season JAX was at 6.42 over 17 games and CIN at 5.81 over 17 games.

AFTER GARY

  • JAX +116 → +120

    NOW +0.84PP

    Gary's number was 116; the market closed at 120.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    CHRIS RODRIGUEZ JR.RUSHING YARDS OVER 17.5
    NFLJacksonville Jaguars· -113
    ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 35

    Chris Rodriguez Jr.
    Rushing Yards over 17.5

    -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 35

    Jacksonville Jaguars

    Chris Rodriguez Jr. over 17.5 rushing yards at -113. This is the lowest number this market has hung on him all season. He opened Week 1 at 37.5, dropped to 24.5, then 20.5, and now sits at 17.5, even after he ran 8 times for 37 yards and a touchdown against New England. His three games this season went 23, 13 and 37 yards on 6, 6 and 8 carries. Last season, in a bigger role, he averaged 40.2 yards a game across 10 games.

    His role is narrow and clear. He is the second back behind Bhayshul Tuten, the short yardage and goal line runner, and the back who closes out games when Jacksonville has the lead. Liam Coen has praised how he falls forward, and on a line this low that matters. Six or seven carries at his normal pace gets there.

    The matchup helps him. Cincinnati just gave up 127 rushing yards to Jaylen Warren, and running backs have 205 yards on 46 carries against this defense in three games. Safety Kyle Dugger was ruled out Friday after playing most of the snaps at Pittsburgh, and Bryan Cook is questionable, so the run support behind the front is thinner than it was a week ago. Jacksonville comes in wanting to run, and I have them winning this game. A Jacksonville lead in the second half means carries for the second back.

    The case against is volume. He played 13 snaps in each of the last two games, and the only road game, at Denver, produced 13 yards on 6 carries. Dexter Lawrence against rookie guard Emmanuel Pregnon is a real problem inside, and short yardage carries stuffed at the line are the main way this goes under. If Cincinnati jumps ahead early and Jacksonville has to throw, his carries are the first to go. LeQuint Allen Jr. is questionable with a hip, which could shift some backfield snaps either way. At 17.5, I need only a modest workload at an ordinary clip, and that is a fair ask.

  • GARY'S PICK
    JOE BURROWPASSING YARDS UNDER 269.5
    NFLCincinnati Bengals· -113
    LOST · ACTUAL 428

    Joe Burrow
    Passing Yards under 269.5

    -113 · LOST · ACTUAL 428

    Cincinnati Bengals

    Joe Burrow under 269.5 passing yards at -113. This number jumped 18 yards from last week's 251.5 after his 282 yard day at Pittsburgh. His three games this season went 254, 207 and 282, an average of 247.7. The market is pricing his best game as the new baseline.

    The first reason is volume. Jacksonville runs the ball, stays ahead of the chains and sustains drives, and its opponents have averaged 55 offensive plays a game this season. Burrow has thrown between 31 and 37 passes per game. At the 7.2 yards per attempt he is averaging this season, even 37 attempts lands him just short of this number.

    The second is the supporting cast. Andrei Iosivas is on injured reserve and Colbie Young is out. The third receiver is Dohnte Meyers, who has 4 catches for 47 yards this season, with Mitchell Tinsley just brought back off Houston's practice squad. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins carry the passing game, and a defense that only has to account for two receivers can tilt its coverage. Chase had 12 yards in the only home game this season. Jacksonville has allowed 722 passing yards to quarterbacks over three games, with 4 interceptions and an interception in 8 straight games. Dalton Risner is also questionable at guard.

    The case against is real. Jacksonville allows 8.79 yards per pass attempt and has given up 13 explosive passing plays, and Burrow is throwing as well as anyone right now. A 51.5 total says points are expected. The bigger tension is with my own side. I have Jacksonville winning, and a trailing Cincinnati throws more. My answer is that Jacksonville wins by holding the ball, which shortens the game and caps Burrow's attempts. One long Chase catch can still flip this ticket on its own, so I'm keeping the conviction modest.

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