Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  WILL SHIPLEYRECEIVING YARDS UNDER 14.5

  NFLPhiladelphia Eagles· -107

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 7

  GARY'S TAKE

  Will Shipley under 14.5 receiving yards at -107. Shipley gets the start this week with Barkley out and Bigsby on injured reserve, and the Eagles' own preview says he should carry the heavier workload. That new role is about carries. This offense has barely used its backs as receivers all season. Barkley, Bigsby and Shipley have combined for 17 targets and 42 receiving yards in four games. Shipley's own lines are 8, 5, 11 and 0 yards, and across six games last year his best was 17. The targets in this system go to Wicks, Lemon, Cooper and the tight ends. The matchup pushes his routes down further. Campanile calls blitz zones, and his linebackers and safeties lead the team in charted blitzes: Oluokun, Antonio Johnson and Ventrell Miller. Philly is starting a practice squad center with about four days of first team work, a left guard who has played a handful of snaps and a rookie right tackle in his second start. When the Rams blitzed every third down last week, Hurts went 1 for 7. Against that pressure, the lead back is far more likely to stay in and pick up a blitzer than to release into a route. Shipley is also the one back on the roster who knows the protections, with Pierce and Steele just arriving. The strongest case against this is Jacksonville's record against backs. Opposing backs have 27 catches for 193 yards in four games, and Chase Brown nearly converted Cincinnati's last fourth down on a short throw. If Philly falls behind and Hurts has to dump the ball off against the blitz, one screen could clear this number. His role is genuinely bigger than last year's, and four games is a thin sample. I still trust how this offense has played to trump that.

  ×

  Will Shipley
  Receiving Yards under 14.5

  -107 · CASHED · ACTUAL 7

  Philadelphia Eagles

  Read Gary’s Take

  Will Shipley under 14.5 receiving yards at -107.

  Shipley gets the start this week with Barkley out and Bigsby on injured reserve, and the Eagles' own preview says he should carry the heavier workload. That new role is about carries. This offense has barely used its backs as receivers all season. Barkley, Bigsby and Shipley have combined for 17 targets and 42 receiving yards in four games. Shipley's own lines are 8, 5, 11 and 0 yards, and across six games last year his best was 17. The targets in this system go to Wicks, Lemon, Cooper and the tight ends.

  The matchup pushes his routes down further. Campanile calls blitz zones, and his linebackers and safeties lead the team in charted blitzes: Oluokun, Antonio Johnson and Ventrell Miller. Philly is starting a practice squad center with about four days of first team work, a left guard who has played a handful of snaps and a rookie right tackle in his second start. When the Rams blitzed every third down last week, Hurts went 1 for 7. Against that pressure, the lead back is far more likely to stay in and pick up a blitzer than to release into a route. Shipley is also the one back on the roster who knows the protections, with Pierce and Steele just arriving.

  The strongest case against this is Jacksonville's record against backs. Opposing backs have 27 catches for 193 yards in four games, and Chase Brown nearly converted Cincinnati's last fourth down on a short throw. If Philly falls behind and Hurts has to dump the ball off against the blitz, one screen could clear this number. His role is genuinely bigger than last year's, and four games is a thin sample. I still trust how this offense has played to trump that.

• GARY'S PICK

  JALEN HURTSRUSHING YARDS UNDER 25.5

  NFLPhiladelphia Eagles· -113

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  Jalen Hurts under 25.5 rushing yards at -113. Jacksonville has kept quarterbacks in the pocket all year. Through four games, including Drake Maye's Patriots, opposing quarterbacks have run for 70 yards combined. The Jaguars allow 74.3 rushing yards a game, second best in the league. Walker and Hines-Allen set hard edges, and Campanile's umbrella zones keep defenders facing the quarterback, which shuts the scramble lanes Hurts usually finds. His last three games went for 18, 25 and 16 yards. Only the opener against Washington cleared this number. The Philly line makes escaping harder. A pocket built around a practice squad center and a rookie right tackle collapses fast, and Jacksonville sends its linebackers and safeties through the interior. Last week those breakdowns turned into four sacks rather than runs, two of them by Byron Young on the final drive. Sacks count against his passing, not his rushing, so every collapsed pocket that ends on the ground costs this over nothing. His short yardage work is sneaks and keepers near the goal line, and those gain a yard or two at a time. The strongest argument against me is the backfield. With Barkley and Bigsby both gone and Shipley at 3.4 yards a carry, Mannion may call more designed runs for Hurts. Coen spent Friday talking about how Hurts tests rush integrity. If Philly trails all day, there is no kneel down at the end to eat into his total. One broken scramble of 20 yards would nearly settle this alone, and four games is a small sample against his longer history as a runner. I am taking the defense that has contained everyone so far.

  ×

  Jalen Hurts
  Rushing Yards under 25.5

  -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  Philadelphia Eagles

  Read Gary’s Take

  Jalen Hurts under 25.5 rushing yards at -113.

  Jacksonville has kept quarterbacks in the pocket all year. Through four games, including Drake Maye's Patriots, opposing quarterbacks have run for 70 yards combined. The Jaguars allow 74.3 rushing yards a game, second best in the league. Walker and Hines-Allen set hard edges, and Campanile's umbrella zones keep defenders facing the quarterback, which shuts the scramble lanes Hurts usually finds. His last three games went for 18, 25 and 16 yards. Only the opener against Washington cleared this number.

  The Philly line makes escaping harder. A pocket built around a practice squad center and a rookie right tackle collapses fast, and Jacksonville sends its linebackers and safeties through the interior. Last week those breakdowns turned into four sacks rather than runs, two of them by Byron Young on the final drive. Sacks count against his passing, not his rushing, so every collapsed pocket that ends on the ground costs this over nothing. His short yardage work is sneaks and keepers near the goal line, and those gain a yard or two at a time.

  The strongest argument against me is the backfield. With Barkley and Bigsby both gone and Shipley at 3.4 yards a carry, Mannion may call more designed runs for Hurts. Coen spent Friday talking about how Hurts tests rush integrity. If Philly trails all day, there is no kneel down at the end to eat into his total. One broken scramble of 20 yards would nearly settle this alone, and four games is a small sample against his longer history as a runner. I am taking the defense that has contained everyone so far.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.