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NFL · Thu, Nov 5 · 8:15 PM

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

O/U 39.5 · SPREAD Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5 · M&T Bank Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Jaguars -9.5
NFL@ Ravens· -120

Jaguars
-9.5

-120 · CASHED · JAX 33 · BAL 10

Ravens

The pick & result

Published pick
Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5 -120
Published odds
-120
Result
Won
Final score
33-10

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

DRAFTKINGS · 57 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 27 5:02 PM
Close
Thu 8:07 PM
Move
SPREADJacksonville Jaguars +2.5 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-120)+6
TOTAL48.5 (-110)40.5 (-105)−8
MONEYLINEJacksonville Jaguars +124Jacksonville Jaguars -455−579
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 27 5:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars +2.5 (-105)48.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars +124 · Baltimore Ravens -148
Oct 28 2:48 PMJacksonville Jaguars +3 (-115)48.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars +130 · Baltimore Ravens -155
Oct 28 4:48 PMJacksonville Jaguars +3 (-115)48.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars +136 · Baltimore Ravens -162
Oct 29 4:36 PMJacksonville Jaguars +3 (-115)48.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars +130 · Baltimore Ravens -155
Sun 11:01 AMJacksonville Jaguars +3 (-115)48.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars +130 · Baltimore Ravens -155
Sun 5:50 PMJacksonville Jaguars -7 (-115)43.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -345 · Baltimore Ravens +275
Sun 6:10 PMJacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (-110)43.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -375 · Baltimore Ravens +295
Sun 8:50 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-112)43.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -455 · Baltimore Ravens +350
Sun 9:20 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-112)43.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -425 · Baltimore Ravens +330
Mon 12:20 AMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-105)43.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -410 · Baltimore Ravens +320
Mon 6:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-105)43.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -425 · Baltimore Ravens +330
Mon 7:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-105)43.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -410 · Baltimore Ravens +320
Mon 11:01 AMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-105)43.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -425 · Baltimore Ravens +330
Mon 1:01 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-105)43.5 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -425 · Baltimore Ravens +330
Mon 4:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-105)42.5 (-118)Jacksonville Jaguars -410 · Baltimore Ravens +320
Mon 5:15 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-105)42.5 (-115)Jacksonville Jaguars -410 · Baltimore Ravens +320
Mon 5:25 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-105)42.5 (-115)Jacksonville Jaguars -395 · Baltimore Ravens +310
Mon 6:16 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-105)42.5 (-115)Jacksonville Jaguars -410 · Baltimore Ravens +320
Mon 6:36 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-105)42.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -410 · Baltimore Ravens +320
Mon 6:46 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-110)42.5 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -425 · Baltimore Ravens +330
Mon 6:56 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)42.5 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -485 · Baltimore Ravens +370
Mon 7:46 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)42.5 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Baltimore Ravens +380
Mon 9:16 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-115)42.5 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -455 · Baltimore Ravens +350
Tue 12:46 AMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-120)42.5 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -470 · Baltimore Ravens +360
Tue 6:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-115)42.5 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -440 · Baltimore Ravens +340
Tue 7:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-115)42.5 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -455 · Baltimore Ravens +350
Tue 8:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-120)42.5 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -455 · Baltimore Ravens +350
Tue 9:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-120)42.5 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -485 · Baltimore Ravens +370
Tue 10:01 AMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-108)42.5 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -485 · Baltimore Ravens +370
Tue 12:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-108)41.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -470 · Baltimore Ravens +360
Tue 3:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-110)40.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -520 · Baltimore Ravens +390
Tue 6:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)40.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Baltimore Ravens +380
Tue 7:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)40.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -520 · Baltimore Ravens +390
Tue 8:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)40.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -535 · Baltimore Ravens +400
Tue 9:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)40.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -550 · Baltimore Ravens +410
Tue 10:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)40.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -535 · Baltimore Ravens +400
Tue 11:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)40.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -520 · Baltimore Ravens +390
Wed 7:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)40.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -535 · Baltimore Ravens +400
Wed 9:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)39.5 (-118)Jacksonville Jaguars -520 · Baltimore Ravens +390
Wed 10:01 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)39.5 (-118)Jacksonville Jaguars -535 · Baltimore Ravens +400
Wed 3:32 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)39.5 (-118)Jacksonville Jaguars -550 · Baltimore Ravens +410
Wed 4:32 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)39.5 (-118)Jacksonville Jaguars -535 · Baltimore Ravens +400
Wed 6:32 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-105)39.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -535 · Baltimore Ravens +400
Wed 8:32 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-105)39.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -520 · Baltimore Ravens +390
Thu 4:45 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)39.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -535 · Baltimore Ravens +400
Thu 6:30 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-112)39.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -575 · Baltimore Ravens +425
Thu 8:30 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-112)39.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -550 · Baltimore Ravens +410
Thu 9:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)39.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -535 · Baltimore Ravens +400
Thu 10:01 AMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-108)39.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -550 · Baltimore Ravens +410
Thu 1:01 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-105)39.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -500 · Baltimore Ravens +380
Thu 5:04 PMJacksonville Jaguars -10 (-110)39.5 (-115)Jacksonville Jaguars -535 · Baltimore Ravens +400
Thu 6:46 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-110)39.5 (-120)Jacksonville Jaguars -470 · Baltimore Ravens +360
Thu 6:56 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-110)39.5 (-120)Jacksonville Jaguars -455 · Baltimore Ravens +350
Thu 7:06 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-110)39.5 (-120)Jacksonville Jaguars -470 · Baltimore Ravens +360
Thu 7:16 PMJacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-110)39.5 (-120)Jacksonville Jaguars -455 · Baltimore Ravens +350
Thu 7:26 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-122)39.5 (-120)Jacksonville Jaguars -455 · Baltimore Ravens +350
Thu 7:57 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-122)40.5 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -440 · Baltimore Ravens +340
CLOSEThu 8:07 PMJacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-120)40.5 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -455 · Baltimore Ravens +350

The read

Thursday night at M&T Bank Stadium, the Ravens are down to Joe Fagnano, an undrafted rookie making a first NFL start with Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both out. The 5-2 Jaguars come in laying a big number on the road.

Baltimore's offense is the main reason I'm on Jacksonville. Fagnano went 10-of-21 for 91 yards and an interception in emergency relief at Buffalo, pressured on 52% of dropbacks. This offense was stalling before that, too: the Ravens have been outscored 68-3 in second halves over their last three games. The usual case for a big home dog is the backdoor cover, and there's no sign of one here.

Leaning on Derrick Henry doesn't solve it. Henry is at 3.5 yards a carry over the last three games, and Jacksonville allows 3.4 for the season. Baltimore also lost Tyler Loop, who made kicks from 64, 57 and 56 yards this year, and Jake Moody is expected to kick but isn't confirmed.

Jacksonville should get plenty of chances. The Ravens allowed 35 and 36 points the last two weeks, with 19 combined missed tackles and one sack in each game. Jaylinn Hawkins is out and Nate Wiggins is questionable. Trevor Lawrence is averaging 8.5 yards an attempt with 17 TD and 4 INT, and the Jaguars are +7 in turnovers.

The case against is real. The Jaguars have won by more than 9.5 three times, all at home. Away from Jacksonville, their margins are -7, -3, +2 and +5, and their red zone falls from 8 TDs on 8 trips to 5 on 11. But those four games came against Bo Nix, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and C.J. Stroud, and Fagnano hasn't shown that kind of threat. This bet loses if Jacksonville settles for field goals and Zay Flowers breaks a big play.

Travon Walker and Bhayshul Tuten are both questionable, inactives weren't out when I wrote this, and Jaguars news is thin. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has been just as efficient on the ground, at 4.6 yards a carry to Tuten's 4.5, though Rodriguez was limited Wednesday with a hand injury. Losing Walker with DaVon Hamilton on IR would hurt more. That uncertainty and the -120 price keep this a solid lean, not a max play.

Injuries noted

Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Bartlett (IR) — ir; Garrett DiGiorgio (IR); Zach Durfee (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Durfee (upper body) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return.; Parker Hughes (IR) — ir; Patrick Mekari (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Mekari (back) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Sam Mustipher (IR) — The Jaguars placed Mustipher (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.; B.J. Green II (IR) — The Jaguars placed Green (elbow) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Caleb Ransaw (IR) — The Jaguars placed Ransaw (knee) on their injured reserve list Tuesday.; Anton Harrison (IR) — Harrison was diagnosed with a torn ACL while undergoing a procedure on his right knee Thursday.; Eric Murray (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: elbow; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 DNP. The Jaguars placed Murray (elbow) on their injured reserve list Tuesday.; DaVon Hamilton (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 DNP. The Jaguars placed Hamilton (knee) on their injured reserve list Tuesday.; Travon Walker (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 9: rib; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Limited. Walker (ribs) is questionable to play Thursday night against the Ravens.; Bhayshul Tuten (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 9: ankle, foot; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 DNP. Tuten (ankle/foot) is listed questionable for Thursday's game against the Ravens.; Jakobi Meyers (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: hamstring, ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Limited.; Ezra Cleveland (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: knee, ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Limited.; Antonio Johnson (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Limited.; Chris Rodriguez Jr. (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: hand; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Limited.; Jarrian Jones (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Limited.; Branson Combs (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: shoulder; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Limited.

Baltimore Ravens: Jahquez Robinson (IR); Skylar Thompson (IR) — ir; Bilhal Kone (IR-R) — ir; Danny Pinter (IR) — Pinter (knee) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Wednesday.; Adam Randall (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 9: neck; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Full. Randall (neck) is officially listed as questionable for Thursday's game versus the Jaguars.; Jovaughn Gwyn (IR) — The Ravens moved Gwyn (ankle) to injured reserve Saturday.; Ethan Pocic (IR) — Baltimore placed Pocic (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Durham Smythe (IR) — The Ravens placed Smythe (Achilles) on their injured reserve list Wednesday.; Jaylinn Hawkins (Out) — Official report, Wk 9: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 DNP. Hawkins (knee) is officially listed as out for Thursday's game versus the Jaguars.; Tavius Robinson (IR) — The Ravens placed Robinson (pectoral) on injured reserve Saturday.; Tyler Huntley (Out) — Official report, Wk 9: toe; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 DNP. Huntley (toe) has reportedly sustained a season-ending turf toe injury.; Tyler Loop (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: groin; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 DNP. The Ravens placed Loop (groin) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Nate Wiggins (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 9: stinger, illness; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 DNP. Wiggins (illness) is officially listed as questionable for Thursday's game versus the Jaguars.; Calais Campbell (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Full.; John Jenkins (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Full.; Ronnie Stanley (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: toe, ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Full.; Trey Hendrickson (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: finger, ribs; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Full.; Mark Andrews (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: hand; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Full.; Lamar Jackson (Out) — Official report, Wk 9: thumb; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 DNP.; Roquan Smith (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: foot; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Full.; Justice Hill (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: groin; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Full.; John Simpson (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: back; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Full.; Roger Rosengarten (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Full.; Olaivavega Ioane (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Full.; Matthew Hibner (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: hand; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Full.; Joe Fagnano (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 9: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Nov 4 Full.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Joe Fagnano is the projected starting quarterback for BAL

    4.33 Y/A

    In his first 2026 game, Joe Fagnano threw for 91 passing yards, completed 47.6% of his passes and averaged 4.33 yards per attempt. His 0-1 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.

  • Trevor Lawrence is the projected starting quarterback for JAX

    8.54 Y/A

    Through 7 games in 2026, Trevor Lawrence threw for 1690 passing yards, completed 65.7% of his passes and averaged 8.54 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4007 yards, completed 60.9% and averaged 7.16 yards per attempt, 29-12 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 17-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 7 games in.

TRENCHES

  • JAX: 77.4 rushing yards allowed per game to BAL's 102.8

    25.3 YPG

    Jacksonville has been hard to run on, allowing 25.3 fewer rushing yards per game than Baltimore, with 7 games played to Baltimore's 8. Both numbers look solid, but rushing totals also reflect game script, and they don't show who each defense faced or how often it was run on. Yards per carry would show whether the gap is real. For this game, it favors Jacksonville on paper, with the bigger test coming if Baltimore stays committed to the run.

PASS RUSH

  • JAX: 1.86 sacks taken per game to BAL's 2.75

    0.89 SACKS

    JAX is at 1.86 sacks taken per game over 7 games; BAL is at 2.75 over 8 games. Those are this season's games through Nov 4. Last season JAX was at 3.42 over 17 games and BAL at 2.65 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • JAX: 15.9 points allowed per game to BAL's 25.4

    9.5 PPG

    Jacksonville has been stingy, while Baltimore has been giving up nearly a score more per game than a defense you would trust. The Jaguars have improved from 19.8 last season over 7 games, and the Ravens have slipped from 23.4, so both have moved in opposite directions. Jacksonville's jump is the one most likely to cool a bit, though Baltimore has been middling or worse across both seasons. This sets up as a spot where the Jaguars' defense has the stronger case, and the Ravens' defense has to show it can hold up.

  • JAX @ BAL carries a 39.5 market total

    39.5

    JAX @ BAL sits 7 points under the slate median, which prices in a game with few easy scores and a lot of points earned the slow way. The number cracks if red-zone trips become touchdowns instead of field goals, or if one team gets ahead early and the other has to throw to catch up. With a total this low, one defensive or special teams score moves it a long way, so think about how much of the number a single swing play would cover.

  • JAX: 28 points per game to BAL's 22.4

    5.6 PPG

    Jacksonville is scoring almost exactly what it did last season, 28 points per game over 7 games against 27.9, which makes its offense look dependable. Baltimore has slipped from 24.9 to 22.4 over 8 games, so the Ravens may need longer drives to keep up if the Jaguars hit their usual number. Jacksonville's level has the stronger case to hold, while Baltimore has some room to bounce back. For sides and team totals, that makes the Jaguars the steadier scoring baseline.

TURNOVERS

  • JAX: 1.71 takeaways per game to BAL's 1

    0.71 TO

    Jacksonville is averaging 1.71 takeaways a game over 7 games, and Baltimore 1 over 8. Turnovers are streaky and depend heavily on the quarterbacks a defense has seen, so the Jaguars' edge could shrink without their defense playing any worse. When thinking about this game, avoid assuming the takeaways simply carry over. Giving Jacksonville a little credit for a short field is fair, but a spread built around it needs more support than this number.

RED ZONE

  • JAX: 40.9% red-zone scoring allowed to BAL's 67.9%

    26.9 PP

    Jacksonville allows scores on 40.9% of red-zone trips over 7 games, compared with 67.9% for Baltimore over 8. That is a sizable edge, but red-zone rates rest on few plays and tend to drift toward the middle. Jacksonville's number is more likely to rise than to hold exactly. For this game, it mainly affects whether drives end in touchdowns or field goals, which makes it more useful for scoring props and totals than for judging either defense as a whole.

MISMATCH

  • JAX: 15.9 points allowed a game to BAL's 25.4

    15.9 VS 25.4

    Jacksonville's defense has tightened from 19.8 points allowed last season through 7 games, while Baltimore has slipped from 23.4 through 8. Baltimore's number has a longer track record, while Jacksonville's improvement is newer and could give some back. Baltimore has to protect its defense by winning on long drives and limiting extra possessions. Weigh how much of Jacksonville's jump you trust, because that decides how wide this defensive gap really is.

COVERAGE

  • BAL: 228.3 passing yards allowed per game to JAX's 253.9

    25.6 YPG

    JAX is at 253.9 passing yards allowed per game over 7 games; BAL is at 228.3 over 8 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Nov 4.

REPLACEMENT

  • Kedon Slovis (QB) is out for BAL

    OUT

    Slovis is sitting Thursday against Jacksonville because of a coach's decision, with no injury listed on the report. He is inactive but stays available as Baltimore's emergency quarterback, so he would only come into play if an emergency at the position opened the door. For a bettor, this is a roster designation for this game and gives no sign of a health problem or a change in Baltimore's plan.

  • CJ Williams (WR) is out for JAX

    OUT

    Out removes Williams from Jacksonville's receiver group for the trip to Baltimore, with no game-time call left to make. The report gives no injury or return date. For a bettor, the useful step is to check who is active at receiver before trusting any Jacksonville receiving prop.

  • Jaylinn Hawkins (S) is out for BAL

    OUT

    Hawkins has a knee injury and the Ravens have already ruled him out for Thursday's game against the Jaguars, so there is no game-day call to wait on. Baltimore will need a different safety in his snaps, and no replacement has been named. Any line posted now should already reflect his absence, so check that the number you are looking at came after the Nov 5 report.

  • Nate Wiggins (CB) is out for BAL

    OUT

    Wiggins is ruled out with an illness and won't suit up Thursday against the Jaguars, which leaves Baltimore a cornerback short. The report doesn't name who takes his snaps, so check the final depth chart before reading much into Jacksonville's passing props. Illness gives no sign of a longer absence, so this looks like a one-game call based on what's known so far.

  • Elijah Sarratt (WR) is out for BAL

    OUT

    Sarratt will not play against Jacksonville, so Baltimore has to fill his receiver snaps with someone else. The report names no injury or replacement. Wait for the active list before reading much into any other Baltimore receiver's number.

  • Alijah Huzzie (CB) is out for JAX

    OUT

    Huzzie will not play at Baltimore, which leaves Jacksonville a cornerback short for this game. The report names no injury or replacement. If you are looking at Baltimore's passing numbers, check how Jacksonville fills that spot before giving this absence much weight.

  • Wesley Williams (DE) is out for JAX

    OUT

    JAX lists Wesley Williams as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 5.

  • Emery Jones Jr. (OT) is out for BAL

    OUT

    BAL lists Emery Jones Jr. as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 5.

  • Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig (S) is out for JAX

    OUT

    JAX lists Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 5.

  • Aeneas Peebles (DT) is out for BAL

    OUT

    BAL lists Aeneas Peebles as out on the injury report. Reported Nov 5.

  • Tyler Huntley (QB) is on injured reserve for BAL

    IR

    Huntley (toe) was placed on injured reserve Thursday. Reported Nov 5.

  • Lamar Jackson (QB) is on injured reserve for BAL

    IR

    The Ravens have officially placed Jackson (thumb) on injured reserve. Reported Nov 5.

  • Adam Randall (RB) is ir-r for BAL

    IR-R

    Randall (neck) is officially listed as questionable for Thursday's game versus the Jaguars, Ryan Mink of the Ravens' official site reports. Reported Nov 5.

  • DaVon Hamilton (DT) is on injured reserve for JAX

    IR

    The Jaguars placed Hamilton (knee) on their injured reserve list Tuesday. Reported Nov 4.

  • Eric Murray (S) is on injured reserve for JAX

    IR

    The Jaguars placed Murray (elbow) on their injured reserve list Tuesday. Reported Nov 4.

  • Tyler Loop (PK) is on injured reserve for BAL

    IR

    The Ravens placed Loop (groin) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Nov 3.

  • Anton Harrison (OT) is on injured reserve for JAX

    IR

    Harrison was diagnosed with a torn ACL while undergoing a procedure on his right knee Thursday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Oct 24.

  • Tavius Robinson (LB) is on injured reserve for BAL

    IR

    The Ravens placed Robinson (pectoral) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 24.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Lamar Jackson

    Out

    Thumb · Did not practice · Out

  • Tyler Huntley

    Out

    Toe · Did not practice · Out

  • Jaylinn Hawkins

    Out

    Knee · Did not practice · Out

  • Bhayshul Tuten

    Questionable

    Ankle, Foot · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Adam Randall

    Questionable

    Neck · Full practice · Questionable

  • Nate Wiggins

    Questionable

    Stinger, Illness · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Travon Walker

    Questionable

    Rib · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Eric Murray

    DNP

    Elbow · Did not practice

  • DaVon Hamilton

    DNP

    Knee · Did not practice

  • Tyler Loop

    DNP

    Groin · Did not practice

  • Branson Combs

    LP

    Shoulder · Limited practice

  • Jarrian Jones

    LP

    Ankle · Limited practice

  • Ezra Cleveland

    LP

    Knee · Limited practice

  • Jakobi Meyers

    LP

    Hamstring · Limited practice

  • Chris Rodriguez Jr.

    LP

    Hand · Limited practice

  • Antonio Johnson

    LP

    Ankle · Limited practice

  • Roger Rosengarten

    FP

    Ankle · Full practice

  • Calais Campbell

    FP

    Full practice

  • Olaivavega Ioane

    FP

    Knee - MCL · Full practice

  • John Jenkins

    FP

    Knee · Full practice

  • Trey Hendrickson

    FP

    Finger · Full practice

  • Joe Fagnano

    FP

    Ankle · Full practice

  • Roquan Smith

    FP

    Foot · Full practice

  • Mark Andrews

    FP

    Full practice

  • Ronnie Stanley

    FP

    Toe · Full practice

  • Justice Hill

    FP

    Groin · Full practice

  • Matt Hibner

    FP

    Full practice

  • John Simpson

    FP

    Back · Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • JAX (5-2) at BAL (4-4)

    -109 PT GAP

    Jacksonville's +85 backs up its 5-2 record, so this looks like a good team earning its wins. Baltimore arrives on 3 straight losses at -24, and 4-4 may flatter a team that has lost its way lately. The site split adds little: 1-1 on the road for the Jaguars, 1-2 at home for the Ravens. Weigh the full-season margin most heavily here, and check whether the price still leans on Baltimore's home field.

  • JAX: 48.2% third-down conversion rate to BAL's 39.2%

    9.1 PP

    Jacksonville is extending drives far more often than Baltimore, and the big change is its own: it converted 39.2% last season, while Baltimore has stayed close to its 40.9%. Seven games is a decent run, but a jump that size from a full-season baseline is a good candidate to cool off. If it holds, Jacksonville can keep its offense on the field and shape the game's rhythm. Be careful paying for 48.2% as if it were the team's true level.

  • JAX: 7.63 yards per pass attempt to BAL's 6.81

    0.82 Y/A

    JAX is at 7.63 yards per pass attempt over 7 games; BAL is at 6.81 over 8 games. Those are this season's games through Nov 4. Last season JAX was at 6.42 over 17 games and BAL at 6.69 over 17 games.

  • JAX: 227.4 team passing yards per game to BAL's 205.1

    22.3 YPG

    JAX is at 227.4 team passing yards per game over 7 games; BAL is at 205.1 over 8 games. Those are this season's games through Nov 4. Last season JAX was at 222.3 over 17 games and BAL at 175.6 over 17 games.

  • JAX: 40% fourth-down conversion rate to BAL's 25%

    15 PP

    JAX is at 40% fourth-down conversion rate over 7 games; BAL is at 25% over 8 games. Those are this season's games through Nov 4. Last season JAX was at 58.6% over 17 games and BAL at 60% over 17 games.

  • JAX is on a short week

    4d vs 4d

    Jacksonville and Baltimore both come in on 4 days, so rest doesn't favor either team. Both have to manage recovery and a shortened practice week, and Jacksonville has the added task of traveling. Don't give either side a rest edge here. The more useful question is which team has more players listed as questionable.

STREAK

  • BAL has lost 3 straight

    L3

    BAL has lost three straight, and all four of its wins came before the slide, so the 4-4 record hides a team trending the wrong way. Three games is a short run, and the record doesn't show who those losses came against, so it may say little about BAL's true level. A home game against JAX is a spot to ask whether the recent dip has moved the price more than it should.

AFTER GARY

  • JAX -9.5 → -9.5

    NOW +2.17PP

    Gary's number was -9.5; the same book now shows -9.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored November 5, 2026 at 4:08 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, caesars, draftkings, betrivers, fanatics, betmgm.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    DERRICK HENRYRUSHING YARDS UNDER 69.5
    NFLBaltimore Ravens· -115

    Derrick Henry
    Rushing Yards under 69.5

    -115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 57

    Baltimore Ravens

    With Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both out, Joe Fagnano makes his first NFL start, and Henry loses the cover a mobile quarterback gives him. Fagnano threw for 91 yards in relief at Buffalo and offered little as a runner, so Jacksonville can crowd the line and dare him to beat them. This defense has already been rough on backfields. Philadelphia's backs managed 20 yards on 16 carries, Cincinnati's got 17 on 12, and no group has reached 100 against the Jaguars.

    Henry was already grinding before this quarterback change, with 58 yards on 17 carries in Cleveland and 45 on 17 against Cincinnati. Baltimore will want to hide its rookie behind a heavy run plan, but that kind of workload has not been getting him there lately. If the Ravens fall behind as 9.5-point underdogs, the carries dry up too. He had only 11 at Buffalo, and Justice Hill out-snapped him. DaVon Hamilton's move to injured reserve and Travon Walker's ribs help Henry some, but I still like the under.

  • GARY'S PICK
    BRENTON STRANGERECEIVING YARDS OVER 32.5
    NFLJacksonville Jaguars· -110

    Brenton Strange
    Receiving Yards over 32.5

    -110 · LOST · ACTUAL 22

    Jacksonville Jaguars

    Strange has become a real part of this passing game, with 95 yards in Cincinnati, 68 against Philadelphia and 44 against Houston. Even when Trevor Lawrence threw just 14 passes in the blowout of Indianapolis, Strange got to 55 on two catches. That matters in a game where Jacksonville could be running out the clock late. He has also had a catch of 23 yards or more in five straight games, so one chunk play gets him most of the way to this number.

    The matchup helps. Buffalo's tight ends just put up 99 yards and a touchdown on Baltimore, and Cincinnati's had 56 yards and two scores the week before. Jaylinn Hawkins is out again at safety, which thins the middle of that defense. Jakobi Meyers was limited with hamstring and ankle problems, and Bhayshul Tuten missed practice all week, so Lawrence could have two fewer dependable short options. Strange should see enough looks to clear a modest line.

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