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NFL · Sun, Oct 18 · 9:30 AM

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

O/U 66.5 · SPREAD Houston Texans -3.5 · Wembley Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Texans Moneyline
NFL@ Jaguars· +128

Texans
Moneyline

+128 · CASHED · HOU 34 · JAX 31

Jaguars

The pick & result

Published pick
Houston Texans ML +128
Published odds
+128
Result
Won
Final score
34-31

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 42 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 11 11:41 PM
Close
Oct 18 8:51 AM
Move
SPREADJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-110)Price
TOTAL44 (-105)42 (-110)−2
MONEYLINEJacksonville Jaguars -150Jacksonville Jaguars -140+10
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 11 11:41 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)44 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -150 · Houston Texans +125
Oct 12 6:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)43.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -150 · Houston Texans +125
Oct 12 8:31 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)44 (-105)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 12 9:31 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)43.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +125
Oct 12 10:32 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)43.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 12 11:32 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 12 12:03 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)43 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +125
Oct 12 12:33 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)43 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 12 1:03 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 12 1:33 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +125
Oct 12 3:04 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -150 · Houston Texans +125
Oct 12 3:34 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +125
Oct 12 4:04 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +125
Oct 12 5:04 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 12 6:27 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 12 6:58 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 12 9:49 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 13 7:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 13 3:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -150 · Houston Texans +125
Oct 13 6:32 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +125
Oct 13 7:25 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-112)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +125
Oct 14 8:20 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 14 3:35 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-112)42.5 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 14 4:35 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-112)42.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 16 6:01 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 16 11:01 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 16 12:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 16 4:02 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 17 4:33 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +125
Oct 17 5:03 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 17 9:34 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 17 10:04 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 17 10:34 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 17 11:04 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 17 11:34 PMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-118)42 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 18 5:00 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 18 5:30 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 18 7:11 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 18 8:01 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-115)42 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 18 8:11 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-112)42 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -145 · Houston Texans +120
Oct 18 8:21 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-112)42 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -140 · Houston Texans +115
Oct 18 8:31 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-110)42 (-108)Jacksonville Jaguars -135 · Houston Texans +115
CLOSEOct 18 8:51 AMJacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-110)42 (-110)Jacksonville Jaguars -140 · Houston Texans +115

The read

The AFC South heads to Wembley on an overcast, gusty London afternoon. A 1-4 Texans team that's better than its record meets a 4-1 Jaguars team on a 3-game winning streak, and Jacksonville is a short favorite.

I'll take Houston to win it outright at +128. The records make this look lopsided, but the games haven't been. Houston's losses came 31-36, 17-19 and 30-34, and the Texans have scored 22.0 a game while allowing 22.4. That's a middle-of-the-pack team that hasn't closed games, not a bad one. Jacksonville's last two wins were 19-17 and 22-17, and the first needed a 57-yard field goal at the gun. The Jaguars have been better per play this season, but five games shouldn't erase how close these teams were coming in. This price treats the Texans as further behind than they are.

The biggest mismatch on the field belongs to Houston. Will Anderson has 7.5 sacks and now faces a Jaguars line that just lost starting right tackle Anton Harrison to injured reserve, with Patrick Mekari already out for the year. Jacksonville's offense is the reason it's favored, and this is how that offense stalls.

The conditions favor the underdog too. Wind gusting to 22 mph points to a lower-scoring game, where a single kick or turnover can decide it. Houston's kicking has been steadier: 4/5 from 50-plus, against Jacksonville's 3/5 and 92.3% on extra points. The Jaguars are also snapping with a practice-squad long snapper. And C.J. Stroud hasn't thrown an interception all season. Houston's 2 giveaways are among the fewest in the league, which matters against a Jaguars defense that leans on takeaways.

It isn't a lock. Houston is thin in the slot without Jalen Pitre, and Parker Washington lives there. Jacksonville also played in London last week, while the Texans kick off at 8:30 AM on their body clocks. The Jaguars have been the better team this season, so this ticket loses more often than it wins. But in a game this close, getting +128 on the side with the best matchup on the field is where the value is.

Injuries noted

Houston Texans: Tank Dell (IR-R) — The Texans ruled out Dell (knee) for Sunday's game against the Jaguars in London.; E.J. Speed (PUP-R) — Speed (quadriceps) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Texans on Sunday.; Ja'Marcus Ingram (Questionable) — The Texans activated Ingram (elbow) from injured reserve Saturday.; Graham Mertz (IR) — ir; Solomon Byrd (IR) — Byrd (ankle) reverted to the Texans' injured-reserve list Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Ali Gaye (IR) — The Texans placed Gaye (knee) on injured reserve Sunday.; Sam Hagen (IR) — The Texans placed Hagen (undisclosed) on injured reserve Tuesday, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports.; Jayden Higgins (IR) — ir; Dylan Horton (IR) — The Texans placed Horton (Achilles) on injured reserve Tuesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; K.C. Ossai (IR) — The Texans placed Ossai (undisclosed) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jake Hummel (IR) — The Texans placed Hummel (groin) on injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Henry To'oTo'o (Questionable) — The Texans activated To'oTo'o (shoulder) from injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Mario Edwards Jr. (IR) — The Texans placed Edwards on injured reserve Wednesday.; British Brooks (IR) — Brooks (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve Friday.; Jaylin Smith (IR) — Smith (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve by the Texans on Tuesday.; David Montgomery (Out) — The Texans ruled Montgomery (groin) out for Sunday's game against the Jaguars in London.; Jalen Pitre (Out) — Pitre (shoulder) is ruled out for Sunday's game against Jacksonville.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Bartlett (IR) — ir; Garrett DiGiorgio (IR); Zach Durfee (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Durfee (upper body) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Matt Zenitz of CBSSports.com reports.; Parker Hughes (IR) — ir; Patrick Mekari (IR-R) — The Jaguars placed Mekari (back) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Sam Mustipher (IR) — The Jaguars placed Mustipher (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.; B.J. Green II (IR) — The Jaguars placed Green (elbow) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Caleb Ransaw (IR) — The Jaguars placed Ransaw (knee) on their injured reserve list Tuesday.; Ross Matiscik (Out) — Matiscik (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Texans.; Anton Harrison (IR) — Harrison is slated to undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right knee next week and could be out for 3-to-5 weeks or 3-to-4 months, depending on what surgeons find while performing the procedure, Michael DiRocco and Ian Rapoport of ESPN report.; Montaric Brown (Out) — Brown (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans.; Jaylon Jones (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 6: Questionable (Hamstring); practice: Limited.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • C.J. Stroud is the projected starting quarterback for HOU

    7.58 Y/A

    Through 5 games in 2026, C.J. Stroud threw for 1402 passing yards, completed 64.3% of his passes and averaged 7.58 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3041 yards, completed 64.5% and averaged 7.19 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.

  • Trevor Lawrence is the projected starting quarterback for JAX

    8.21 Y/A

    Through 5 games in 2026, Trevor Lawrence threw for 1174 passing yards, completed 67.1% of his passes and averaged 8.21 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4007 yards, completed 60.9% and averaged 7.16 yards per attempt, 29-12 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 10-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.

TRENCHES

  • JAX: 114.2 rushing yards per game to HOU's 79

    35.2 YPG

    Jacksonville runs for 114.2 yards a game, matching last season's 115.1, while Houston has fallen to 79 from 108.9 over five games. The Jaguars' number looks steady and the Texans' drop is the one likely to move back up. Houston is throwing more this year, so expect the Texans to lean on the pass while Jacksonville runs to set up its offense.

  • JAX: 4.08 yards per rush attempt to HOU's 3.34

    0.74 Y/C

    HOU is at 3.34 yards per rush attempt over 5 games; JAX is at 4.08 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season HOU was at 3.94 over 17 games and JAX at 3.98 over 17 games.

PASS RUSH

  • HOU: 3.6 sacks recorded per game to JAX's 2.2

    1.4 SACKS

    Houston gets 3.6 sacks a game and Jacksonville 2.2, over five games each. Both rushes get home, Houston's more often. Sack totals depend on the line and quarterback across the way, which the sheet doesn't cover. Jacksonville's quarterback is the one likelier to face steady pressure, which can stall drives.

  • JAX: 2 sacks taken per game to HOU's 2.8

    0.8 SACKS

    HOU is at 2.8 sacks taken per game over 5 games; JAX is at 2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season HOU was at 2.58 over 17 games and JAX at 3.42 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • JAX: 14 points allowed per game to HOU's 22.4

    8.4 PPG

    Jacksonville's defense is giving up 14 points a game through five games, while Houston's has allowed 22.4. Both numbers are a swing from last season, when Houston allowed 17.4 and Jacksonville 19.8, so the Jaguars have improved and the Texans have slipped. Five games is a small window, and both teams may drift back toward last year's form. For this game, the side with the stingier defense is also the home team, which tilts the low-scoring script toward Jacksonville.

TURNOVERS

  • JAX: 1.6 takeaways per game to HOU's 1

    0.6 TO

    Jacksonville is taking the ball away 1.6 times a game over 5 games, and Houston sits at 1 per game. Takeaways swing a lot and are among the least stable defensive stats, so expect both numbers to drift. The edge favors Jacksonville at home, but don't lean on turnover luck carrying over game to game.

  • HOU: 0 interceptions thrown per game to JAX's 0.6

    0.6 INT

    HOU is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 5 games; JAX is at 0.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season HOU was at 0.53 over 17 games and JAX at 0.71 over 17 games.

RED ZONE

  • JAX: 33.3% red-zone scoring allowed to HOU's 58.3%

    25 PP

    Jacksonville allows a score on 33.3% of red-zone trips, Houston 58.3%, over five games each. Red-zone rates rest on few trips and swing quickly, so the Jaguars' figure likely rises. Houston drives that reach the red zone have been stalling more often against Jacksonville-style resistance than the Texans' defense manages.

  • HOU: 3.6 red-zone trips per game to JAX's 2.8

    0.8 TRIPS

    HOU is at 3.6 red-zone trips per game over 5 games; JAX is at 2.8 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season HOU was at 3.18 over 17 games and JAX at 4 over 17 games.

MISMATCH

  • JAX: 14 points allowed a game to HOU's 22.4

    14 VS 22.4

    Jacksonville has allowed 14 points a game over 5 games, down from 19.8 last season, while Houston has slipped from 17.4 to 22.4. Five games is enough to notice and short enough to doubt, so expect both to move a bit toward last season's numbers. At home, the Jaguars' defense is the stronger unit, and Houston's offense needs to show it can score against it.

COVERAGE

  • HOU: 234 passing yards allowed per game to JAX's 266.2

    32.2 YPG

    HOU is at 234 passing yards allowed per game over 5 games; JAX is at 266.2 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 17.

  • HOU: 5.06 yards per play allowed to JAX's 5.52

    0.46 Y/P

    HOU is at 5.06 yards per play allowed over 5 games; JAX is at 5.52 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 17.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • HOU and JAX are even since 2025

    1-1 SERIES

    These two traded home wins last season. Jacksonville took the Sep 21 meeting 17-10 in a low-scoring game, then Houston won a shootout 36-29 on Nov 9. Both games were one-score or close to it, and the home side won each time. Two games is a thin sample, but it points to a matchup where home field has mattered more than either team's edge.

REPLACEMENT

  • Tank Dell (WR) is ir-r for HOU

    IR-R

    Dell is on injured reserve with a knee injury and was ruled out for Sunday's game against Jacksonville in London. The IR-R tag means he is on the return track, but he is not available for this game. Houston's targets go to the receivers who are healthy, so compare how the Texans' passing game has looked with and without him.

  • Anton Harrison (OT) is on injured reserve for JAX

    IR

    Harrison is going on injured reserve and will have arthroscopic surgery on his right knee next week, reported Oct 13. The timeline is wide open: 3-to-5 weeks if the surgery is minor, 3-to-4 months if surgeons find more. Either way he misses this Houston game. With a starting tackle out, watch how Jacksonville's line holds up in pass protection, and keep in mind that the sheet names no replacement.

  • Jaylin Smith (CB) is on injured reserve for HOU

    IR

    The Texans put Smith on injured reserve with a hamstring injury on Tuesday, reported Oct 7, so he is out for this trip to Jacksonville. IR means at least a multi-week absence. The sheet names no one taking his snaps, so Houston's depth at corner is the thing to check before backing Jacksonville's receivers.

  • Caleb Ransaw (S) is on injured reserve for JAX

    IR

    Jacksonville placed Ransaw on injured reserve with a knee injury on Tuesday, reported Oct 7, which rules him out against Houston. The sheet names no replacement at safety. Combined with tackle Anton Harrison also on IR, the Jaguars are thinner on both sides of the ball heading into this one.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Jalen Pitre

    Out

    Shoulder · Did not practice · Out

  • Ross Matiscik

    Out

    Shoulder · Did not practice · Out

  • David Montgomery

    Out

    Groin · Did not practice · Out

  • Montaric Brown

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Henry To'oTo'o

    Questionable

    Shoulder · Full practice · Questionable

  • Ja'Marcus Ingram

    Questionable

    Elbow · Full practice · Questionable

  • Jaylon Jones

    Questionable

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Jourdan Lewis

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Logan Hall

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Emmanuel Pregnon

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Will Anderson Jr.

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Nico Collins

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Nate Boerkircher

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Dalton Schultz

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Cole Van Lanen

    FP

    Full practice

  • Eric Murray

    FP

    Full practice

  • Trent Brown

    FP

    Full practice

  • Azeez Al-Shaair

    FP

    Full practice

  • Wade Woodaz

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jadeveon Clowney

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jake Hansen

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jarrian Jones

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • HOU (1-4) at JAX (4-1), a division game

    +55 PT GAP

    Jacksonville has won three in a row and is 3-0 at home, so it comes into this one with real form behind it. Houston's 1-4 record looks worse than its -2 point differential, which says the Texans have lost close games rather than been run over. That kind of gap usually narrows over time. For a division game, weigh Houston as a tighter opponent than the record suggests, against a Jaguars team that has protected its building.

  • HOU: 261.8 team passing yards per game to JAX's 220.6

    41.2 YPG

    HOU is at 261.8 team passing yards per game over 5 games; JAX is at 220.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season HOU was at 218.1 over 17 games and JAX at 222.3 over 17 games.

STREAK

  • JAX has won 3 straight

    W3

    Jacksonville has won three in a row and sits at 4-1. The sheet doesn't list who those wins came against, so the quality of the run is unclear. At home against Houston in a division game, the form points their way, but three games is a short streak and division games often run tighter than the records suggest.

AFTER GARY

  • HOU +128 → +118

    GARY +2.01PP

    Gary's number was 128; the same book now shows 118.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 15, 2026 at 5:20 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, caesars, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    XAVIER HUTCHINSONRECEPTIONS OVER 1.5
    NFLHouston Texans· -105

    Xavier Hutchinson
    Receptions over 1.5

    -105 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

    Houston Texans

    Xavier Hutchinson over 1.5 receptions at -105. This line needs two catches. Hutchinson has caught at least three in every one of Houston's five games: 3, 3, 3, 3 and 4. His targets have held steady at five to nine a week, and he has 16 of the team's 84 targets over the last three games. Nico Collins's return didn't take those looks away. Against Dallas, Hutchinson drew five targets on just 17 snaps. Stroud is spreading the ball on purpose, and Nick Caley said this week that the coverage decides where the ball goes.

    The matchup should push Houston to throw. Jacksonville has the best run defense in the league, Houston's run game sits near the bottom, and David Montgomery is out. Stroud is averaging 37 attempts a game, and the Jaguars have allowed 68 catches to wide receivers in five games. Jacksonville also ruled out cornerback Montaric Brown, and Jaylon Jones is questionable with a hamstring, so the outside corners Hutchinson faces are thinner than usual.

    The biggest risk is Marvin Harrison Jr. He makes his debut today in a room that already has Collins, Jaylin Noel and Kayshon Boutte. Hutchinson's snaps have been shrinking, down to 27 of 66 last week. Ryans has said Harrison will run a set package and won't play a full game, which limits how much of Hutchinson's work he takes this week. Hutchinson has also caught only 16 of his 32 targets, so he probably needs four looks to get there. The market set this same number last week and he caught four. With a line this low, I'm betting on his floor.

  • GARY'S PICK
    XAVIER HUTCHINSONRECEIVING YARDS OVER 14.5
    NFLHouston Texans· -107

    Xavier Hutchinson
    Receiving Yards over 14.5

    -107 · LOST · ACTUAL 10

    Houston Texans

    Xavier Hutchinson over 14.5 receiving yards at -107. One solid catch can clear this. Hutchinson has 231 yards on 16 receptions this season, and his games have gone 32, 37, 51, 46 and 65 yards. His two quietest weeks still more than doubled this line. He works the intermediate middle of the field, and that is where Jacksonville gives up yards. The Jaguars shut down the run and hold teams out of the end zone, but they allow close to eight yards an attempt and 277 passing yards a game. Opponents move the ball through the air on this defense and then stall in the red zone. That suits a yardage bet much more than a touchdown bet.

    Houston will have to throw to move the ball. Montgomery is out, Woody Marks is averaging 3.5 a carry, and Jacksonville is giving up under three yards per designed run. With Montaric Brown out, the Jaguars will lean on depth at outside corner.

    Here is the case against it. The wind is forecast to gust to 22 mph, which can shrink a passing game. Campanile's coverage disguises and pattern matching can make a quarterback skip past his third read. Harrison's debut could also take away the snaps Hutchinson needs. Last season, when his role was smaller, Hutchinson had several games with almost nothing, and a game of two short catches would land under. Still, this was also the line last week, and he went for 65 in the same role he has now. At -107 I'll take the yards.

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