Two days after a tight one in Cleveland, these teams run it back at Paycom Center, with Alex Caruso off Oklahoma City's injury report. The Thunder won Monday by 5 on the road, and now they need to win by 4 at home against a Cavaliers team that's still short-handed. Monday's result holds up. Neither team's shooting was out of line: OKC's effective field goal percentage was 49.0 against 49.4 for the season, and Cleveland's was 54.4 against 55.2. The one fluke helped OKC, because Cleveland went 14-24 at the line. At the Cavs' season rate of about 75%, that's roughly 4 more points, so it was closer to a 1-point game. But OKC played that game on the road, and tonight it's at home. The physical edge should travel too. The Thunder won the paint 50-30 and the boards 54-46, with Isaiah Hartenstein and Aday Mara combining for 23 rebounds in 48 minutes. Peyton Watson and Jaylon Tyson are still out, and Monday was Cleveland's first game without both. Caruso is the main change, though I haven't seen official confirmation that Caruso will play. Caruso's last full game produced 12 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists in 22 minutes, while Josh Dix went scoreless in 12 minutes Monday. Jaylin Williams is questionable with back spasms, but a scratch wouldn't move me. Williams has 6 points over the last three games, and Mara is among those in line for more minutes. The skepticism on OKC looks overdone. The Thunder have been outscored by 29 in four games since losing Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams, but three of those were on the road. They trailed Dallas by 13 and Houston by 17 after three quarters, then lost by 24 and 21 with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sitting the fourth. The one home game was an 11-point win over Phoenix on a back-to-back. Cleveland is also softer than 4-3 looks: outside the 25-point win in Milwaukee, the Cavs' other six games net to exactly zero, and they blew leads of 29 in Philadelphia and 15 in Atlanta. The risk is the three-point line. Over its last four games, OKC is 39-127 from deep while opponents are 70-185, and Cleveland takes 41 a game. Gilgeous-Alexander also needed 35 shots for 43 points Monday, and OKC led just 105-104 with five minutes left. A 3-point win loses this ticket, so this is a modest play, but I'll lay it.
Two days after a tight one in Cleveland, these teams run it back at Paycom Center, with Alex Caruso off Oklahoma City's injury report. The Thunder won Monday by 5 on the road, and now they need to win by 4 at home against a Cavaliers team that's still short-handed.
Monday's result holds up. Neither team's shooting was out of line: OKC's effective field goal percentage was 49.0 against 49.4 for the season, and Cleveland's was 54.4 against 55.2. The one fluke helped OKC, because Cleveland went 14-24 at the line. At the Cavs' season rate of about 75%, that's roughly 4 more points, so it was closer to a 1-point game. But OKC played that game on the road, and tonight it's at home. The physical edge should travel too. The Thunder won the paint 50-30 and the boards 54-46, with Isaiah Hartenstein and Aday Mara combining for 23 rebounds in 48 minutes. Peyton Watson and Jaylon Tyson are still out, and Monday was Cleveland's first game without both.
Caruso is the main change, though I haven't seen official confirmation that Caruso will play. Caruso's last full game produced 12 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists in 22 minutes, while Josh Dix went scoreless in 12 minutes Monday. Jaylin Williams is questionable with back spasms, but a scratch wouldn't move me. Williams has 6 points over the last three games, and Mara is among those in line for more minutes.
The skepticism on OKC looks overdone. The Thunder have been outscored by 29 in four games since losing Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams, but three of those were on the road. They trailed Dallas by 13 and Houston by 17 after three quarters, then lost by 24 and 21 with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sitting the fourth. The one home game was an 11-point win over Phoenix on a back-to-back. Cleveland is also softer than 4-3 looks: outside the 25-point win in Milwaukee, the Cavs' other six games net to exactly zero, and they blew leads of 29 in Philadelphia and 15 in Atlanta.
The risk is the three-point line. Over its last four games, OKC is 39-127 from deep while opponents are 70-185, and Cleveland takes 41 a game. Gilgeous-Alexander also needed 35 shots for 43 points Monday, and OKC led just 105-104 with five minutes left. A 3-point win loses this ticket, so this is a modest play, but I'll lay it.
Thunder -3.5