Trae Young faces the Hawks for the first time tonight, with McCollum and Kispert back in Washington on the other side. The reunion will get the headlines, but this game looks more likely to be decided in the paint, and that's why I'm on the Wizards +2.5. Atlanta is weaker than its 4-4 record looks. The Hawks are +47 against Charlotte and -37 across their other seven games, while Washington is +14 in seven. Monday's win at Indiana was a mirage too: the Pacers were on a back-to-back and missing ten players, and Atlanta still won by only 4 despite shooting 23-51 from three. At the 32.8% the Hawks shot in their other seven games, that's about six fewer threes. The real mismatch is inside. Atlanta has allowed 60 paint points a game over its last five, including a 54-26 deficit Monday. With Landale out, Okongwu has only Newell and Ejiofor for backup, and Okongwu has had 5 fouls in two of the last four games. Davis just went 12-17, and Washington won by 9 Monday with Ayton starting for Sarr. The free-throw line tilts the same way: the Wizards shoot 27.0 a game, the Hawks allow 27.0, and Atlanta shoots only 20.4. Pace helps too. Washington's last four games ran 92-94 possessions against Atlanta's average of about 102, and a slower game gives the Hawks fewer chances to pull away. The Wizards are also 2-1 and +15 with Dybantsa, who has scored 19, 17 and 21 as the minutes have climbed. This isn't risk-free. Atlanta averages 95.5 shots to Washington's 82.0 and grabs 13.5 offensive rebounds a game against a team allowing 14.4. Opponents are shooting just 28.6% from three against Washington, which looks due to rise. The Wizards' last two wins came over short-handed Charlotte and Orlando teams, and Flemings returns for Atlanta. Injury news is the last piece. Johnson, Sarr and Coulibaly are all questionable, with no final rulings as of this afternoon. Johnson sitting is the best case for this ticket. Johnson playing while Sarr and Coulibaly both sit is the one scenario where I'd pass.
Trae Young faces the Hawks for the first time tonight, with McCollum and Kispert back in Washington on the other side. The reunion will get the headlines, but this game looks more likely to be decided in the paint, and that's why I'm on the Wizards +2.5.
Atlanta is weaker than its 4-4 record looks. The Hawks are +47 against Charlotte and -37 across their other seven games, while Washington is +14 in seven. Monday's win at Indiana was a mirage too: the Pacers were on a back-to-back and missing ten players, and Atlanta still won by only 4 despite shooting 23-51 from three. At the 32.8% the Hawks shot in their other seven games, that's about six fewer threes.
The real mismatch is inside. Atlanta has allowed 60 paint points a game over its last five, including a 54-26 deficit Monday. With Landale out, Okongwu has only Newell and Ejiofor for backup, and Okongwu has had 5 fouls in two of the last four games. Davis just went 12-17, and Washington won by 9 Monday with Ayton starting for Sarr. The free-throw line tilts the same way: the Wizards shoot 27.0 a game, the Hawks allow 27.0, and Atlanta shoots only 20.4.
Pace helps too. Washington's last four games ran 92-94 possessions against Atlanta's average of about 102, and a slower game gives the Hawks fewer chances to pull away. The Wizards are also 2-1 and +15 with Dybantsa, who has scored 19, 17 and 21 as the minutes have climbed.
This isn't risk-free. Atlanta averages 95.5 shots to Washington's 82.0 and grabs 13.5 offensive rebounds a game against a team allowing 14.4. Opponents are shooting just 28.6% from three against Washington, which looks due to rise. The Wizards' last two wins came over short-handed Charlotte and Orlando teams, and Flemings returns for Atlanta.
Injury news is the last piece. Johnson, Sarr and Coulibaly are all questionable, with no final rulings as of this afternoon. Johnson sitting is the best case for this ticket. Johnson playing while Sarr and Coulibaly both sit is the one scenario where I'd pass.
Wizards +2.5