NBA · Sat, Oct 31 · 7:00 PM

Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans

O/U 240.5 · SPREAD Atlanta Hawks -4.5 · Smoothie King Center

GARY'S PICK

NBA@ Pelicans· -105

Halloween night at the Smoothie King Center: a 1-4 Pelicans team that keeps losing close games hosts a 3-3 Hawks team that's been hard to get a read on. Both teams are on their third game in four nights with a day of rest, so fatigue doesn't tip it either way. I'm laying the 4.5 with Atlanta. The biggest edge is the three-point line. The Hawks are 89-of-250 from deep (35.6%), about 14.8 makes a game. New Orleans is 46-of-153 (30.1%), about 9.2 makes, and its defense lets opponents take roughly 36 a night. That's five or six extra threes for Atlanta, around 17 points the Pelicans have to find somewhere else. Then there's the fourth quarter. New Orleans hasn't won one yet: 0-for-5, minus-42 combined. The Pelicans led Indiana 92-86, Utah 90-86 and Denver 108-89 after three and lost all three. A team that doesn't shoot threes struggles to come back late, and a 4.5-point spread usually comes down to the last 12 minutes. The turnover battle favors Atlanta too: the Pelicans give it away 17.4 times a game to the Hawks' 13.8. Yves Missi is out again, leaving the middle unsettled, and Onyeka Okongwu just dropped 29 and 12 with four threes on Cleveland. Dejounte Murray's return isn't a clear lift either. Murray is 3-of-15 from deep, and coming back takes the ball from Jeremiah Fears, who just went 22-8-13 against Sacramento. It's not a lock. Atlanta's numbers lean on a 47-point win over a short-handed Charlotte; outside that game the Hawks are 2-3 and minus-19. The Pelicans' first three losses came by a combined 10 points. Zion Williamson is shooting 64.6%, and New Orleans makes 23.8 free throws a game against a Hawks team that commits 24 fouls a night and gave up 70 points in the paint to Miami. Atlanta also starts slow, losing the first quarter in four of six games. Still, I trust the shooting gap and the late-game edge more than the Pelicans' paint attack. Hawks -4.5.

The pick & result

Published pick: Atlanta Hawks -4.5 -105
Published odds: -105
Result: Lost
Final score: 99-121

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

The biggest edge is the three-point line. The Hawks are 89-of-250 from deep (35.6%), about 14.8 makes a game. New Orleans is 46-of-153 (30.1%), about 9.2 makes, and its defense lets opponents take roughly 36 a night. That's five or six extra threes for Atlanta, around 17 points the Pelicans have to find somewhere else.

Then there's the fourth quarter. New Orleans hasn't won one yet: 0-for-5, minus-42 combined. The Pelicans led Indiana 92-86, Utah 90-86 and Denver 108-89 after three and lost all three. A team that doesn't shoot threes struggles to come back late, and a 4.5-point spread usually comes down to the last 12 minutes.

The turnover battle favors Atlanta too: the Pelicans give it away 17.4 times a game to the Hawks' 13.8. Yves Missi is out again, leaving the middle unsettled, and Onyeka Okongwu just dropped 29 and 12 with four threes on Cleveland. Dejounte Murray's return isn't a clear lift either. Murray is 3-of-15 from deep, and coming back takes the ball from Jeremiah Fears, who just went 22-8-13 against Sacramento.

It's not a lock. Atlanta's numbers lean on a 47-point win over a short-handed Charlotte; outside that game the Hawks are 2-3 and minus-19. The Pelicans' first three losses came by a combined 10 points. Zion Williamson is shooting 64.6%, and New Orleans makes 23.8 free throws a game against a Hawks team that commits 24 fouls a night and gave up 70 points in the paint to Miami. Atlanta also starts slow, losing the first quarter in four of six games.

Still, I trust the shooting gap and the late-game edge more than the Pelicans' paint attack. Hawks -4.5.

Injuries noted

Atlanta Hawks: Zuby Ejiofor (Doubtful) — G League - On Assignment; Mouhamed Gueye (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Foot Fracture; Henri Veesaar (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right ACL Tear

New Orleans Pelicans: Yves Missi (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Contusion / Bone Bruise; Jordan Poole (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Sprain

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

REPLACEMENT

RayJ Dennis is OUT for ATL
OUT
RayJ Dennis is out for Atlanta on a G League two-way assignment. This has little effect on tonight's rotation.
Zuby Ejiofor is OUT for ATL
OUT
Zuby Ejiofor is out for Atlanta on a G League assignment. This has little effect on tonight's rotation.
Keshon Gilbert is OUT for ATL
OUT
Keshon Gilbert is out for Atlanta on a G League two-way assignment. This has little effect on tonight's rotation.
Jalen Wilson is OUT for ATL
OUT
Jalen Wilson is out for Atlanta on a G League two-way assignment. This has little effect on tonight's rotation.
Henri Veesaar is OUT for ATL
OUT
Henri Veesaar is out for Atlanta with a torn right ACL. This is a long-term absence, so his loss should already be part of how Atlanta has been playing.
Mouhamed Gueye is OUT for ATL
OUT
Mouhamed Gueye is out for Atlanta after surgery on a left foot fracture. Like Veesaar, this has been known for weeks, so it adds little new to tonight's game.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, caesars, rebet, betmgm, betrivers, ballybet, betparx, fanatics, betway.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
JEREMIAH FEARSPOINTS REBOUNDS ASSISTS UNDER 20.5
NBANew Orleans Pelicans· -114
LOST · ACTUAL 32
This line is built off one night. Fears put up 22 points and 13 assists against Sacramento with Dejounte Murray and Jordan Poole both in street clothes, against a winless team that turned it over 25 times. That was a full point guard workload handed to a rookie for one game. Murray is back tonight and is expected to take the starting point guard spot right back, and that changes what Fears is on the floor to do. Look at the four games Fears played next to Murray: 12, 8, 18 and 18 in combined points, rebounds and assists, in 21 to 24 minutes a night, with one assist in two of them. Fears was a finisher in those games, shooting 11 for 45 from the field, and the ball ran through Murray. Poole sitting again opens up a few bench possessions, but the creation duties go to Murray first. Atlanta also brings Dyson Daniels and a defense that has been taking the ball away in bunches. A rookie guard playing off the ball against that group needs a lot to go right to clear 21. I'm selling the Sacramento box score at a fair price.
Jeremiah Fears
Points Rebounds Assists under 20.5
-114 · LOST · ACTUAL 32
New Orleans Pelicans
This line is built off one night. Fears put up 22 points and 13 assists against Sacramento with Dejounte Murray and Jordan Poole both in street clothes, against a winless team that turned it over 25 times. That was a full point guard workload handed to a rookie for one game. Murray is back tonight and is expected to take the starting point guard spot right back, and that changes what Fears is on the floor to do.
Look at the four games Fears played next to Murray: 12, 8, 18 and 18 in combined points, rebounds and assists, in 21 to 24 minutes a night, with one assist in two of them. Fears was a finisher in those games, shooting 11 for 45 from the field, and the ball ran through Murray. Poole sitting again opens up a few bench possessions, but the creation duties go to Murray first.
Atlanta also brings Dyson Daniels and a defense that has been taking the ball away in bunches. A rookie guard playing off the ball against that group needs a lot to go right to clear 21. I'm selling the Sacramento box score at a fair price.
GARY'S PICK
JALEN JOHNSONPOINTS REBOUNDS ASSISTS UNDER 40.5
NBAAtlanta Hawks· -114
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 24
Jalen Johnson is Atlanta's engine, and the book has priced the ceiling. Outside of the 16 assist explosion against Houston, Johnson's totals have sat in the low to mid 30s: 32 against Cleveland, 32 against Miami, 33 in Houston, 34 in Charlotte, and 40 in Orlando in a game with 30 fouls and 36 free throws for Atlanta. Getting past 40 has taken either a monster assist night or a whistle parade. The Hawks have spread the offense around this week. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has gone for 23 and 25 the last two games, Aaron Wiggins is scoring every night off the bench, Kingston Flemings is soaking up handling minutes, and Okongwu just had 29. With that many mouths in a settled nine man rotation, Johnson has been the connector more than the scorer, with 17 and 12 points in the last two games on a combined 11 of 28 shooting. New Orleans plays fast, which is the risk, but the Pelicans pressure the ball and have racked up steals all season, and Atlanta is a 4.5 point favorite that could bank fourth quarter rest if this turns into a comfortable road win. Johnson has to stack all three categories to get there, and I'll take the under at this number.
Jalen Johnson
Points Rebounds Assists under 40.5
-114 · CASHED · ACTUAL 24
Atlanta Hawks
Jalen Johnson is Atlanta's engine, and the book has priced the ceiling. Outside of the 16 assist explosion against Houston, Johnson's totals have sat in the low to mid 30s: 32 against Cleveland, 32 against Miami, 33 in Houston, 34 in Charlotte, and 40 in Orlando in a game with 30 fouls and 36 free throws for Atlanta. Getting past 40 has taken either a monster assist night or a whistle parade.
The Hawks have spread the offense around this week. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has gone for 23 and 25 the last two games, Aaron Wiggins is scoring every night off the bench, Kingston Flemings is soaking up handling minutes, and Okongwu just had 29. With that many mouths in a settled nine man rotation, Johnson has been the connector more than the scorer, with 17 and 12 points in the last two games on a combined 11 of 28 shooting.
New Orleans plays fast, which is the risk, but the Pelicans pressure the ball and have racked up steals all season, and Atlanta is a 4.5 point favorite that could bank fourth quarter rest if this turns into a comfortable road win. Johnson has to stack all three categories to get there, and I'll take the under at this number.

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