NBA · Mon, Nov 2 · 7:30 PM

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers

O/U 231.5 · SPREAD Atlanta Hawks -4.5 · Gainbridge Fieldhouse

GARY'S PICK

NBA@ Pacers· -118

Indiana hosts Atlanta tonight on the second night of a back-to-back, its third game in four nights, with a roster that looks more like a summer-league group than an NBA rotation. The Hawks had Sunday off and arrive at Gainbridge Fieldhouse rested. The Pacers are without Siakam (rest) and Nembhard and Nesmith (injury management), and Nance is doubtful. Haliburton, Zubac, Sheppard, McConnell and Furphy were already out. On Sunday against Brooklyn, Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith and Nance played 127 of 240 minutes and scored 55 of Indiana's 90 points. The seven players left without an injury tag are Jackson, Oubre, Walker, Huff, Kobe Brown, Slawson and Braden Smith, and they combined for 35 that night. Spread across seven players, that's about 34 minutes apiece on tired legs, with no room for foul trouble. Huff fouled out in 17 minutes Sunday. Atlanta's defense feeds on opponents like this. The Hawks average about 9.4 steals a game and scored 32 points off turnovers in both New Orleans and Houston, and tonight Jackson and Braden Smith are running Indiana's offense. We've seen this before: against a Charlotte team missing Knueppel, White, Boswell and Grant Williams, Atlanta led 97-62 after three and won 128-81. Even with its stars on Sunday, Indiana managed only about 99 points per 100 possessions. Atlanta's season rate is about 113. There's real risk here. Jalen Johnson is questionable with an ankle sprain, and with Flemings suspended, losing Johnson would take away Atlanta's main creator (16 assists against Houston, 11 against Miami). The Hawks have started slowly, losing first quarters by 12 to Cleveland and 17 to New Orleans, and they're shooting 32.8% from three. Landale is out, so there's no third center behind Okongwu. If Toppin is cleared, Indiana gets a scorer back. And if Atlanta builds a big lead and empties its bench, Indiana's best available players stay on the floor because there's nobody to sub in, so a backdoor cover is possible. Still, the gap in healthy bodies and fresh legs is wider than 9.5. It's rested Hawks against a seven-man Pacers team on a back-to-back. Give me Atlanta.

The Pacers are without Siakam (rest) and Nembhard and Nesmith (injury management), and Nance is doubtful. Haliburton, Zubac, Sheppard, McConnell and Furphy were already out. On Sunday against Brooklyn, Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith and Nance played 127 of 240 minutes and scored 55 of Indiana's 90 points. The seven players left without an injury tag are Jackson, Oubre, Walker, Huff, Kobe Brown, Slawson and Braden Smith, and they combined for 35 that night. Spread across seven players, that's about 34 minutes apiece on tired legs, with no room for foul trouble. Huff fouled out in 17 minutes Sunday.

Atlanta's defense feeds on opponents like this. The Hawks average about 9.4 steals a game and scored 32 points off turnovers in both New Orleans and Houston, and tonight Jackson and Braden Smith are running Indiana's offense. We've seen this before: against a Charlotte team missing Knueppel, White, Boswell and Grant Williams, Atlanta led 97-62 after three and won 128-81. Even with its stars on Sunday, Indiana managed only about 99 points per 100 possessions. Atlanta's season rate is about 113.

There's real risk here. Jalen Johnson is questionable with an ankle sprain, and with Flemings suspended, losing Johnson would take away Atlanta's main creator (16 assists against Houston, 11 against Miami). The Hawks have started slowly, losing first quarters by 12 to Cleveland and 17 to New Orleans, and they're shooting 32.8% from three. Landale is out, so there's no third center behind Okongwu. If Toppin is cleared, Indiana gets a scorer back. And if Atlanta builds a big lead and empties its bench, Indiana's best available players stay on the floor because there's nobody to sub in, so a backdoor cover is possible.

Still, the gap in healthy bodies and fresh legs is wider than 9.5. It's rested Hawks against a seven-man Pacers team on a back-to-back. Give me Atlanta.

The pick & result

Published pick: Atlanta Hawks -9.5 -118
Published odds: -118
Result: Lost
Final score: 108-104

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Still, the gap in healthy bodies and fresh legs is wider than 9.5. It's rested Hawks against a seven-man Pacers team on a back-to-back. Give me Atlanta.

Injuries noted

Atlanta Hawks: Kingston Flemings (Out) — League Suspension; Mouhamed Gueye (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Foot Fracture; Jalen Johnson (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Sprain; Jock Landale (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Hip Strain; Henri Veesaar (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right ACL Tear

Indiana Pacers: Johnny Furphy (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right ACL Repair / Surgery; Tyrese Haliburton (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain; T.J. McConnell (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Hamstring Strain; Larry Nance Jr. (Doubtful) — Injury/Illness - Illness; Andrew Nembhard (Out) — Injury/Illness - Cervical Injury Management; Aaron Nesmith (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Injury Management; Ben Sheppard (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Meniscus Surgery; Pascal Siakam (Out) — Rest; Obi Toppin (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Lumbar Sprain; Ivica Zubac (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Sprain

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

ATL won last season's series 2-1
2-1
Atlanta won two of three against Indiana last season, by 10.3 a game. Three games is a small sample. Atlanta is without Flemings on suspension and Jalen Johnson is questionable, while Indiana's Toppin has a back issue, so tonight's lineups may look very different from last season's.

REPLACEMENT

T.J. McConnell is OUT for IND
OUT
T.J. McConnell is out for Indiana with a hamstring issue, which removes a key backcourt reserve. With the Pacers on a back-to-back and on a four-game skid, the depth hit adds up.
Jock Landale is OUT for ATL
OUT
Atlanta is without Jock Landale at Indiana with a left hip strain. He is a backup big, so the Hawks' frontcourt depth takes a small hit, though the Pacers are thin in the frontcourt too.
Kingston Flemings is OUT for ATL
OUT
Flemings is serving a league suspension, so he is out tonight at Indiana with no game-time decision. A suspension is known well ahead of tip, so the line should already reflect it. The useful angle is the minutes he leaves behind: look at which Atlanta guards pick up his touches, since their props may not fully account for the bigger role.
Henri Veesaar is OUT for ATL
OUT
Henri Veesaar is out for Atlanta with a torn right ACL, a long-term absence the market has already had time to absorb.
Mouhamed Gueye is OUT for ATL
OUT
Mouhamed Gueye is out for Atlanta after surgery on a left foot fracture. With Henri Veesaar also out, Atlanta's frontcourt depth is thin against Indiana.
Johnny Furphy is OUT for IND
OUT
Johnny Furphy is out for Indiana with a knee issue. Combined with T.J. McConnell's absence, the Pacers' bench is thinner on the second night of a back-to-back.
Ben Sheppard is OUT for IND
OUT
Indiana's Ben Sheppard is out for months after surgery on a torn meniscus in his left knee, per Rick Carlisle. This is a long absence that changes the Pacers bench rotation for a big part of the season, and it is already part of how the market sees them.
Ivica Zubac is OUT for IND
OUT
Ivica Zubac is out for Indiana again with an ankle injury, and reports had this as his fourth straight game on the inactive list. Indiana has been playing without its center for a while now, so the recent games tell you more than season numbers.
Tyrese Haliburton is OUT for IND
OUT
Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton for at least two weeks with a hamstring injury, and hamstrings tend to linger. He runs the Pacers offense, so expect a slower, less efficient attack against Atlanta, and with Zubac and Sheppard also out, Indiana is thin.
Keshon Gilbert is OUT for ATL
OUT
Keshon Gilbert is with Atlanta's G League affiliate on a two-way deal. No betting impact.
Jalen Wilson is OUT for ATL
OUT
Jalen Wilson is with Atlanta's G League affiliate on a two-way deal. No betting impact.
Jalen Johnson is Questionable for ATL
Questionable
Johnson is questionable with a left ankle sprain. He is a key piece for Atlanta, which is already without Flemings on suspension. If Johnson sits too, Atlanta is thin, and that changes how much last season's 2-1 series edge counts.
Obi Toppin is Day-To-Day for IND
Day-To-Day
Toppin is day-to-day with a back issue and missed Sunday's game and the Friday loss to Miami. That is two straight absences, so expect him to be limited or out again unless Indiana says otherwise. Bench big minutes are the spot to watch.

SITUATIONAL

IND on a back-to-back, ATL rested
B2B vs 2d
Indiana plays its second game in two nights while Atlanta has two days off. The Pacers have also lost four straight and are missing T.J. McConnell and Johnny Furphy. A tired home team on a skid is a spot where the rest gap counts for more than home court usually does.

STREAK

IND has lost 4 straight
L4
Indiana has lost 4 straight by 10.3 a game and is 2-5 over its last seven. Tonight they are on the second night of a back-to-back while Atlanta comes in on 2 days rest. T.J. McConnell and Johnny Furphy are both out. The losing run, the tired legs and the depth hits all point the same way for this game.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 29, 2026 at 4:20 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, rebet, caesars, betrivers, ballybet, betparx, betmgm, fanatics, betway.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
DYSON DANIELSASSISTS OVER 5.5
NBAAtlanta Hawks· +120
LOST · ACTUAL 4
Kingston Flemings is serving his suspension tonight. He has been Atlanta's second ballhandler, and in his longer runs he was handing out five or six assists. The expected fix is Daniels and Alexander-Walker splitting the lead guard duties. Alexander-Walker plays like a shooter and has logged a single assist in most of his recent games. In practice, the setup work falls to Daniels. Jalen Johnson is a game-time call on that ankle. If Johnson sits, Atlanta loses the guy who just posted 16 and 11 assist nights, and even more of the creation goes to Daniels. If Johnson plays, Daniels still picks up the Flemings minutes on the ball. Atlanta moves the ball as a team, piling up 30 plus assists in most of its games. Indiana is down to a skeleton crew on tired legs, and that means a lot of live ball turnovers and run-outs. Daniels is the one who gets his hands on those and pushes the break. The blowout is the risk, but Atlanta's guard depth is thin with Flemings out, so the bench can't eat many of Daniels' minutes. At plus money with his role growing, I'll take the over.
Dyson Daniels
Assists over 5.5
+120 · LOST · ACTUAL 4
Atlanta Hawks
Kingston Flemings is serving his suspension tonight. He has been Atlanta's second ballhandler, and in his longer runs he was handing out five or six assists. The expected fix is Daniels and Alexander-Walker splitting the lead guard duties. Alexander-Walker plays like a shooter and has logged a single assist in most of his recent games. In practice, the setup work falls to Daniels.
Jalen Johnson is a game-time call on that ankle. If Johnson sits, Atlanta loses the guy who just posted 16 and 11 assist nights, and even more of the creation goes to Daniels. If Johnson plays, Daniels still picks up the Flemings minutes on the ball. Atlanta moves the ball as a team, piling up 30 plus assists in most of its games. Indiana is down to a skeleton crew on tired legs, and that means a lot of live ball turnovers and run-outs. Daniels is the one who gets his hands on those and pushes the break.
The blowout is the risk, but Atlanta's guard depth is thin with Flemings out, so the bench can't eat many of Daniels' minutes. At plus money with his role growing, I'll take the over.

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