Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic

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All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  DESMOND BANE3-POINTERS OVER 2.5

  NBAOrlando Magic· +120

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 3

  GARY'S TAKE

  The biggest change in Orlando under Sean Sweeney is how often it shoots from deep, and Desmond Bane is at the center of it. The Magic took 42.5 threes a game in the preseason after averaging 34.1 last season. Bane's own attempts per 100 possessions went from 7.3 to 17.4, more than double. He showed it in the finale, going 7 for 12 from three against Miami, and Sweeney praised him for hunting those shots. Bane is now playing in a system that wants him firing. He also doesn't need that new volume for this to cash. He averaged 2.2 made threes last season on far fewer attempts, and over his last ten he reached three makes regularly. With Anthony Black out and the bench short on creators, Orlando's starters will carry heavy minutes, and Bane played all 82 games last year at about 34 minutes a night. Atlanta likes to push early in the shot clock, which Sweeney flagged at shootaround. More possessions means more chances. At plus money, a shooter whose attempts doubled is the side I want. What beats it: Atlanta has the personnel to take him off the line. Dyson Daniels, Luguentz Dort and Nickeil Alexander-Walker can chase and top-lock him, and the Hawks finished last season as one of the league's best defenses. Orlando also had a hot shooting preseason a year ago that disappeared once the games counted. If the volume falls back toward last season's and he goes cold early, two makes is a realistic floor.

  ×

  Desmond Bane
  3-Pointers over 2.5

  +120 · CASHED · ACTUAL 3

  Orlando Magic

  Read Gary’s Take

  The biggest change in Orlando under Sean Sweeney is how often it shoots from deep, and Desmond Bane is at the center of it. The Magic took 42.5 threes a game in the preseason after averaging 34.1 last season. Bane's own attempts per 100 possessions went from 7.3 to 17.4, more than double. He showed it in the finale, going 7 for 12 from three against Miami, and Sweeney praised him for hunting those shots. Bane is now playing in a system that wants him firing.

  He also doesn't need that new volume for this to cash. He averaged 2.2 made threes last season on far fewer attempts, and over his last ten he reached three makes regularly. With Anthony Black out and the bench short on creators, Orlando's starters will carry heavy minutes, and Bane played all 82 games last year at about 34 minutes a night. Atlanta likes to push early in the shot clock, which Sweeney flagged at shootaround. More possessions means more chances. At plus money, a shooter whose attempts doubled is the side I want.

  What beats it: Atlanta has the personnel to take him off the line. Dyson Daniels, Luguentz Dort and Nickeil Alexander-Walker can chase and top-lock him, and the Hawks finished last season as one of the league's best defenses. Orlando also had a hot shooting preseason a year ago that disappeared once the games counted. If the volume falls back toward last season's and he goes cold early, two makes is a realistic floor.

• GARY'S PICK

  FRANZ WAGNERASSISTS OVER 5.5

  NBAOrlando Magic· +128

  LOST · ACTUAL 5

  GARY'S TAKE

  The preseason film says Franz Wagner is running a lot more of Orlando's offense now. He totaled 24 assists in roughly 70 exhibition minutes, an average of 6.0 a game while playing under 18 minutes a night. Sweeney has him in pick-and-roll with Paolo Banchero setting the screen and diving, which is a pairing the previous staff mostly kept apart. Even if his per-minute rate drops off a lot once he's playing full starter's minutes, the volume still clears this number. The injury list helps him too. Anthony Black is out, so Jalen Suggs is the only true guard creator in the rotation, and the reporting on Orlando's bench says outright that it lacks a creator. Wagner will likely be the one steadying lineups when Suggs or Banchero sits. The new shot profile makes his passes more likely to become assists, with Bane, Tristan da Silva and the rest of the floor spacers waiting for kickouts. At plus money, I'm betting that the role change is real. What beats it: his assist rate last season was nowhere near this line, so the book is already pricing in the change. Banchero still carried a heavy preseason usage load and could take over the half court in a close game. Daniels has some of the best hands in the league and could disrupt his passing. Wagner was also limited to light work Sunday and played only 40 games last year, so any minutes caution would make this tough to reach.

  ×

  Franz Wagner
  Assists over 5.5

  +128 · LOST · ACTUAL 5

  Orlando Magic

  Read Gary’s Take

  The preseason film says Franz Wagner is running a lot more of Orlando's offense now. He totaled 24 assists in roughly 70 exhibition minutes, an average of 6.0 a game while playing under 18 minutes a night. Sweeney has him in pick-and-roll with Paolo Banchero setting the screen and diving, which is a pairing the previous staff mostly kept apart. Even if his per-minute rate drops off a lot once he's playing full starter's minutes, the volume still clears this number.

  The injury list helps him too. Anthony Black is out, so Jalen Suggs is the only true guard creator in the rotation, and the reporting on Orlando's bench says outright that it lacks a creator. Wagner will likely be the one steadying lineups when Suggs or Banchero sits. The new shot profile makes his passes more likely to become assists, with Bane, Tristan da Silva and the rest of the floor spacers waiting for kickouts. At plus money, I'm betting that the role change is real.

  What beats it: his assist rate last season was nowhere near this line, so the book is already pricing in the change. Banchero still carried a heavy preseason usage load and could take over the half court in a close game. Daniels has some of the best hands in the league and could disrupt his passing. Wagner was also limited to light work Sunday and played only 40 games last year, so any minutes caution would make this tough to reach.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.