Sports Picks Archive — Sunday, July 26, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rays· +110

Under the Trop dome, Tampa Bay is reaching for the sweep while Cleveland carries a four-game losing streak into the finale. That makes the Rays the comfortable choice. I’m betting against that comfort. Cleveland has the stronger starting-pitching setup for this particular lineup. Its left-hander has allowed only three earned runs across 16.2 innings in his last three starts, owns a 2.68 ERA with a 3.25 xERA, and has held right-handed hitters to a .197 average and .599 OPS. Tampa Bay is starting six right-handed bats. The matchup turns the other way when Cleveland hits. Its lineup includes five left-handed hitters and three switch-hitters against Tampa Bay’s right-handed starter, who has allowed a .240 average and .667 OPS to lefties compared with .177 and .502 against righties. He has also surrendered 13 earned runs over 12.1 innings in his last three starts. His season-long numbers remain respectable, but this is not a starter I want to lay a sweep price with today. Tampa Bay’s 37-15 home record, superior season offense and 14-3 advantage through the first two games explain the favorite’s price. My read is that Cleveland’s starter changes the shape of the finale, keeps Tampa Bay quiet early and gives the Guardians a live chance to steal it late. I’m not paying -210 for the extra run; if this pitching edge is real, I want the plus-money payout on the outright win.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Nationals· -114

The deadline has already changed Washington’s clubhouse, and this rubber game carries real wild-card weight for both sides. I’m laying the small price because Miles Mikolas is the most attackable part of this matchup. His 5.60 ERA comes with a 5.08 xERA and only 51 strikeouts in 98 innings, while his four-seamer and sinker have both been hit hard. That suits an Arizona lineup led by a hot Gabriel Moreno, with Ketel Marte particularly dangerous against sinkers. Kohl Drake is still an unknown in only his second start, so I want no part of the run line, but Arizona owns the better season-long pitching numbers and has Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald rested. Washington can damage Drake through James Wood and red-hot CJ Abrams, but I prefer Arizona’s full-game pitching path.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Orioles· -112

The first two games were decided late, and I expect another tight one. I’m paying the small price for the deeper club rather than laying the run line. Atlanta can attack Baz with seven hitters batting from the left side; he has allowed a .276 average and .780 OPS to left-handed bats. Baldwin and Harris are swinging it well, and the Braves hold the overall edge in offense, defense and bullpen quality. López’s recent form keeps this off the run line, but at nearly even money I’ll back Atlanta to win the rubber match.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Pirates· +109

Chicago has taken the first two, Pittsburgh has scored twice in its last three games, and now the better team is still catching plus money. Pick: Cubs ML +109. Ashcraft owns the stronger season numbers, but he has allowed 12 earned runs over eight innings in his last two starts. The Cubs are swinging it well, their best relievers are rested, and Pittsburgh’s cold lineup gives Taillon a chance to survive his shaky form. I’ll take Chicago to finish the sweep.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Blue Jays· -147

Saturday was Dylan Cease’s game, but I’m not treating Boston’s shutout loss as a broader offensive collapse. Ranger Suárez’s return comes with workload risk, so I’ll avoid the run line. Suárez owns a 3.32 xERA with excellent contact suppression, and his .574 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters matches up well with Toronto’s Guerrero-Kirk-Springer core. Gausman has been less reliable, particularly against righties, while Willson Contreras and Masataka Yoshida have both handled him well. Boston’s leverage relievers are also available after Alec Gamboa covered four innings Saturday.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Tigers· -126

This entire set has lived on a knife edge: 4-3, 2-1, 3-2. I’m betting Sunday stays in that lane rather than paying a premium for Detroit to separate. Avila has allowed six earned runs across 16⅓ innings in his last three starts, and his 35.2% hard-hit rate gives him a chance to contain a Detroit lineup averaging only 3.4 runs over its last 10. Valdez has the better underlying profile, but he owns a 4.57 ERA and lasted just two outs while surrendering six runs last time out. Kansas City’s lineup is too thin without Witt and Pasquantino for me to take the moneyline, but all six meetings at Comerica this season have been decided by exactly one run. I’ll buy the insurance.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mets· -150

The sweep price is a little heavy, and Los Angeles is closing a 10-game road trip, so I’m not asking for margin. But if the starters mostly cancel out, the Dodgers own the meaningful edges everywhere else. Sheehan’s 5.13 ERA is harsher than his 3.89 xERA, and both his slider and curve have limited expected damage. Peralta has similar positive-regression indicators, but he’s allowed an .805 OPS and 13 homers to left-handed hitters; Los Angeles can send Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy and Tucker at him. Add the Dodgers’ superior offense, defense and late-game pitching against a Mets club averaging 2.8 runs over its last 10, and I’ll pay for the better team to win without laying 1.5.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Marlins· +104

Miami’s skid has reached 11, but the streak itself isn’t my handicap. The problem is being asked to lay -126 with Janson Junk against a San Diego lineup that has finally found some traction. Pick: Padres ML +104. Junk has allowed left-handed hitters a .321 average and .885 OPS, and the Padres can send five left-handed or switch hitters at him. France, Merrill, Rengifo and Machado are all swinging well, while Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon are rested behind Buehler. The starters are too comparable for Miami to deserve this price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Twins· +134

Two games, two 2-0 finals, and now Minnesota is laying -162 behind Connor Prielipp in his first start back from a blister. That’s too much certainty for this setup. I’m taking Athletics ML +134. Jeffrey Springs’ 5.96 ERA is ugly, but his 4.79 xERA points to some correction, and he allowed only two runs over five innings last time out. Prielipp may be managed carefully, Minnesota has scored only twice all series, and Nick Kurtz is back in the middle of the Athletics’ order. Shea Langeliers’ absence keeps this a modest play, but the price is generous enough.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rockies· -163

Colorado showed some fight Saturday, but facing triple-digit heat after a night game is a much tougher assignment. With the roof closed, I expect Milwaukee’s clear starting-pitching advantage to decide the finale. Jacob Misiorowski owns a 1.57 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 173 strikeouts in 115 innings. More importantly for this matchup, left-handed hitters have managed only a .332 OPS against him, and Colorado has seven hitters batting from the left side today. Kyle Freeland has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last three starts. Right-handed hitters have tagged him for a .958 OPS and 18 home runs, while Milwaukee can attack him with seven hitters batting right-handed. The price is heavy, but I’d rather lay the run and a half than pay -362 on the moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Astros· -114

Houston has controlled this series and won five straight, but I’m not letting the sweep narrative make the decision. In a near coin flip, Chicago has the more dependable path on the mound. Fedde is imperfect, but his .328 xwOBA allowed over 93 innings is a much firmer baseline than Blanco’s one-start sample. Blanco missed bats against Miami, yet three walks, two homers and extreme hard contact are dangerous against a lineup that can send six left-handed or switch hitters to the plate. The bullpen setup also leans Chicago: Abreu, Sousa and Hader have worked consecutive days, while several White Sox leverage options are rested. Chicago’s 31-19 home record helps. Colson Montgomery’s scratch and Houston’s hot top three keep this modest, but I have the Sox above the break-even point at -114.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cardinals· +113

Saturday’s 7-0 score makes this look more one-sided than it was; St. Louis led only 1-0 before breaking it open in the sixth. I’m taking the plus money with the better starting-pitcher profile. Andrew Abbott has the lower xERA and has held several key Cardinals hitters in check, while Lars Nootbaar’s scratch removes another threat. Kyle Leahy’s recent results are strong, but his 5.26 xERA, 50.3% hard-hit rate and .860 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters leave him vulnerable to Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday and Nathaniel Lowe. Cincinnati also preserved its late-inning arms in Saturday’s loss, while Gordon Graceffo threw 38 pitches for St. Louis. In this heat, I’d rather back Abbott and the more rested bullpen at an underdog price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Mariners· -117

Texas has dictated this series, and Seattle’s slumping lineup now gets deGrom’s elite swing-and-miss secondary stuff. The Rangers’ bullpen is rested after Eovaldi worked seven innings Saturday, Langford is confirmed in the lineup, and Texas’s best bats are producing. Gilbert is good enough to keep me off the run line, but at nearly a coin-flip price I’ll back the hotter home club.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

JUNIOR CAMINEROTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +124

At home in Tropicana Field, he elevates to a .309 AVG and 1.041 OPS with 17 HR in 188 ABs. He enters having cleared 1.5 total bases in 4 of his last 5 games, including yesterday's game against Cleveland where he recorded a double. At +124 odds requiring a 45% break-even rate, his underlying profile against lefties provides strong edge. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Indoor dome environment (72°F) neutralizes weather factors entirely. VOLUME FLOOR: Batting 3rd in the confirmed lineup ensures 4+ plate appearance opportunities. THE RISK: Messick's cutter/changeup mix keeps right-handed hitters to a .197 AVG on the season; if Messick induces weak ground contact early in counts, Caminero could be restricted to single bases or walks.

GARY'S PICK

YANDY DIAZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +113

In day games, he carries a .341 AVG (56-for-164) and an .862 OPS. Facing left-handed starter Parker Messick, Diaz hits .294 with an .836 OPS across 109 ABs. In yesterday's matchup against Cleveland, Diaz went 2-for-4 with a double (3 total bases). At +113 odds, the implied break-even probability is 47%, which is well below his actual production rate in home day games. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Indoor dome environment (72°F) neutralizes weather factors entirely. VOLUME FLOOR: Batting leadoff in the confirmed lineup provides maximum plate appearance volume (4-5 PAs). THE RISK: Diaz can suffer from ground-ball tendencies if he rolls over Messick's sinker, and Messick holds right-handed batters to a .197 AVG overall this season.

GARY'S PICK

CJ ABRAMSTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBWashington Nationals· +115

CJ Abrams enters Sunday's matchup in phenomenal current form, having cleared 1.5 total bases in five consecutive games with total base marks of 7, 2, 5, 8, and 4. Over his last 7 games, Abrams is hitting .560 (14-for-25) with 5 home runs, 11 RBIs, and a massive 1.873 OPS, bringing his season slugging percentage to .557. He faces rookie left-hander Kohl Drake, who surrendered a 46.2% Hard-Hit rate, a 15.4% barrel rate, and a 5.61 xERA in his initial outing. Batting out of the cleanup spot for a Nationals offense operating in warm 84°F weather at neutral Nationals Park, Abrams has high volume floor opportunities (4+ expected PAs). The primary risk to this prop is a lefty-on-lefty suppression scenario where Drake pitches around Abrams or limits him to single base hits, but Abrams' barrel metrics and hit distribution far exceed the 46.5% break-even hurdle required at +115.

GARY'S PICK

GABRIEL MORENOTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +100

Gabriel Moreno has been the motor of Arizona's offense, batting .400 (16-for-40) with a 1.005 OPS over his last 15 games and .333 over his last 7 games. On the season, Moreno carries a .311 batting average and .380 xwOBA, performing at an elite level against right-handed pitching (.320 AVG, .853 OPS in 200 ABs). He faces Nationals starter Miles Mikolas, who has struggled significantly with a 5.60 ERA, a 5.08 xERA, and a .279 BA / .833 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters. Batting 3rd in the Diamondbacks order, Moreno will benefit from consistent upper-lineup PA volume. The main risk is Moreno being held to a single hit without an extra-base hit or walk, but his .400 L15 average and Mikolas' high contact quality allowed make Over 1.5 Total Bases a strong play above its 50.0% break-even bar.

GARY'S PICK

DRAKE BALDWINTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBBraves· +101

Drake Baldwin is anchored in the leadoff spot for Atlanta, guaranteeing 4 to 5 plate appearance opportunities in today's series finale. Over his last 10 games, Baldwin has been on an absolute tear, hitting .405 (15-for-37) with 5 home runs, while generating an impressive .349 batting average and 1.064 OPS in day games this season across 86 at-bats. In his last 5 outings, he has accumulated 1, 4, 4, 2, and 0 total bases, clearing the 1.5 line in 3 of those 5 contests. Matchup-wise, Orioles starter Shane Baz shows clear platoon vulnerabilities against left-handed hitters, surrendering a .276 batting average and .780 OPS to lefties compared to .249 and .684 against right-handed batters. At +101 odds (requiring a 49.8% break-even rate), Baldwin's top-of-the-order volume and elite current form offer a strong edge.

GARY'S PICK

CHRISTIAN ENCARNACION-STRANDTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBOrioles· +135

Christian Encarnacion-Strand has made an immediate power splash in the middle of Baltimore's batting order, posting a .421 batting average (8-for-19) with 3 home runs, 9 RBIs, and a 1.397 OPS over his last 7 days. Over his last 5 games, he has recorded total base tallies of 1, 6, 0, 6, and 5—exceeding 1.5 total bases in 3 of those 5 games via multi-extra-base-hit performances. He faces Atlanta starter Reynaldo López, who allows a 35.8% hard-hit rate and a 7.8% barrel rate on 193 batted ball events. Batting 5th behind high-OBP hitters Dylan Beavers and Gunnar Henderson, Encarnacion-Strand will see quality pitch sequences with men on base. Priced at +135, the break-even requirement is just 42.6%, making this an attractive play on a hitter currently driving the ball with authority.

GARY'S PICK

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +105

Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently locked into an elite offensive groove at the plate. Over his last 7 games, the Cubs leadoff man is hitting .409 (9-for-22) with a massive 1.490 OPS, including 2 HR and 6 RBI. That hot streak has carried directly into this series at PNC Park, where he has gone 6-for-9 with two home runs, two doubles, and 4 RBI across the first two games (including a 4-for-5, 9-total-base explosion on Saturday). Tonight, Crow-Armstrong draws a highly favorable platoon matchup against Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft. While Ashcraft holds right-handed batters to a stingy .610 OPS, he exhibits significant vulnerability against lefties, surrendering a .763 OPS and all 13 of his season home runs allowed to left-handed hitters (across 253 AB). Batting in the leadoff spot guarantees Crow-Armstrong 4 to 5 plate appearances, giving him prime opportunity to clear 1.5 total bases via extra-base power or multiple hits against a starter who yields fly-ball damage to lefties.

GARY'S PICK

WILLSON CONTRERASTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· +129

Willson Contreras enters Sunday's series finale in peak hitting form, batting .421 (8-for-19) with a 1.226 OPS, 1 HR, and 4 RBI over his last 7 games, and .360 (9-for-25) over his last 15. He performs exceptionally well in day games, posting a .317 AVG (38-for-120) with a .995 OPS on the season. Contreras faces Kevin Gausman, who has allowed a .267 AVG, .764 OPS, and 39.2% hard-hit rate to right-handed hitters while carrying a 6.13 ERA across his last 5 starts. Playing at Fenway Park (1.05 Park Factor), Contreras' pull power righties benefits heavily from the Green Monster in left field, creating clear extra-base total base opportunities.

GARY'S PICK

FREDDIE FREEMANTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBDodgers· +117

Freddie Freeman enters Sunday in exceptional form, having recorded three hits in each of his last three starts (July 22 @ PHI, July 24 @ NYM, July 25 @ NYM), going 9-for-12 (.750) over that stretch. On the season, Freeman is hitting .299 with an .868 OPS, with his splits spiking to .323 AVG and a .935 OPS against right-handed pitching. He faces Mets starter Freddy Peralta (5-9, 5.01 ERA), who has displayed significant platoon vulnerability against left-handed batters, yielding a .267 AVG, .805 OPS, and 13 home runs in 285 ABs to LHBs. Batting third in the Dodgers order guarantees 4 to 5 plate appearances. At +117 odds, the break-even threshold is 46%, making this over line an attractive edge given Freeman's current form and platoon advantage.

GARY'S PICK

JACKSON MERRILLH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBPadres· -111

**THE PICK:** Jackson Merrill OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-111) **MATCHUP:** Jackson Merrill (LHB) vs. Janson Junk (RHP) **THE KEY FACTOR:** Marlins starter Janson Junk has displayed a severe platoon split weakness against left-handed batters all season, allowing a .321 AVG, .885 OPS, and 6 HR across 168 ABs to LHBs. Merrill enters today coming off a 3-for-4 performance yesterday with two doubles and two runs scored. Over his last 5 games, Merrill has generated multi-category production, accumulating 5, 4, and 4 combined Hits+Runs+RBIs in 3 of those 5 contests. Junk has surrendered 23 ER and 7 HR over his last 24.2 IP (8.39 ERA in L5 starts), creating a fertile environment for left-handed hitters. At -111 odds, the required break-even probability is 52.6%. **PARK/WEATHER CHECK:** loanDepot park, Roof Closed, 72°F, Wind: 0 mph. **VOLUME FLOOR:** Merrill bats 5th in the Padres order behind Tatis Jr., Cronenworth, Machado, and France. With San Diego scoring 11 runs in the first two games of this series and a game total set at 8.5, Merrill is positioned for 4+ plate appearances with ample run-producing and scoring opportunities. **THE RISK:** Junk locates his sinker (93.5 mph) down in the zone to generate groundouts, while the Marlins bullpen suppresses late-inning scoring, leaving Merrill with a single or walk that falls just short of the 2-plus requirement.

GARY'S PICK

SALVADOR PEREZH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBRoyals· -125

1. THE PICK: Salvador Perez OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125) 2. MATCHUP: vs Framber Valdez (LHP) | Right-handed batter vs Left-handed pitcher 3. THE KEY FACTOR: Perez has been Kansas City's primary run producer, hitting 4 home runs over his last 10 games and breaking the Royals' franchise home-run record on Saturday. Against left-handed pitching this season, Perez hits .280 with an .810 OPS and 4 HR. He faces Framber Valdez, who struggles to contain right-handed hitters, surrendering a .261 AVG and 9 HR in 326 ABs. Perez has recorded 2+ combined hits, runs, and RBIs in 3 of his last 5 games (3, 2, 0, 4, 1 HRR). 4. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Comerica Park — Pitcher-Friendly (Factor: 0.95), deep CF (420ft). Weather: Partly Cloudy, 77°F, Wind: 8 mph, R To L. 5. VOLUME FLOOR: Batting 3rd in the Royals' order with Bobby Witt Jr. sidelined, Perez has a secure volume floor of 4+ plate appearances in a high-total environment (9.0 runs). 6. THE RISK: Valdez uses his heavy ground-ball sinker (1.31 GO/AO) to induce double plays and soft contact, stranding Perez on base without generating additional run or hit output.

GARY'S PICK

DILLON DINGLERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBTigers· +117

1. THE PICK: Dillon Dingler OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+117) 2. MATCHUP: vs Luinder Avila (RHP) | Right-handed batter vs Right-handed pitcher 3. THE KEY FACTOR: Dingler is swinging an exceptionally hot bat, posting a .391 AVG (9-for-23), 3 HR, and a 1.331 OPS over his last 7 days. Despite right-on-right matchup conventions, Dingler obliterates right-handed pitching this season, batting .285 with a .930 OPS and 18 of his 22 home runs coming in 246 ABs against RHP. Opposing starter Luinder Avila has been highly vulnerable to right-handed hitters, yielding a .277 AVG and .899 OPS with 3 HR in 83 ABs. At +117 odds (46% break-even threshold), Dingler's extra-base power against RHP provides a major edge. 4. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Comerica Park — Pitcher-Friendly (Factor: 0.95), deep CF (420ft). Weather: Partly Cloudy, 77°F, Wind: 8 mph, R To L. 5. VOLUME FLOOR: Batting 5th in Detroit's order, expected to see 4 plate appearances in a game with an over/under total set at 9.0 runs. 6. THE RISK: Avila relies on his sinker (96.4 mph) and slider (88 mph) to keep balls low in the zone, inducing soft groundouts and holding Dingler to a single or no-hit afternoon.

GARY'S PICK

ANDREW VAUGHNTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -105

1. THE PICK: Andrew Vaughn OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105) 2. MATCHUP: vs LHP Kyle Freeland (Right-handed batter vs Left-handed pitcher) 3. THE KEY FACTOR: Kyle Freeland has been severely vulnerable against right-handed hitters this season, yielding a .320 AVG, a .958 OPS, and 18 home runs in 300 ABs along with a 10.9% barrel rate allowed. Andrew Vaughn enters hitting .309 with an .870 OPS overall, and excels in day games where he posts a .324 AVG and .880 OPS (22-for-68). Over his last 7 games, Vaughn is 5-for-16 (.313 AVG, .915 OPS). Hitting 3rd in a Brewers lineup favored at -350 on the moneyline, Vaughn is set for premium PA volume against a starter allowing heavy hard contact. 4. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: American Family Field (Roof Closed, 72°F, Wind 0 mph). Controlled environment eliminates outdoor weather variables. 5. VOLUME FLOOR: Batting 3rd, expected 4-5 PA in a game with an implied Brewers team total near 5.5 runs. 6. THE RISK: Freeland manages a 1.00 GO/AO ratio and could keep sinkers low, inducing ground-ball outs or drawing walks that do not yield total bases.

GARY'S PICK

JEREMY PENATOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBHouston Astros· +104

Jeremy Peña enters Sunday's finale as one of the hottest hitters in baseball, posting a .500 AVG (11-for-22) with 3 HR, 6 RBI, and a 1.409 OPS over his last 7 days, including back-to-back 3-hit games to open this series in Chicago. Batting leadoff for an Astros offense averaging 6.2 runs per game over their 5-game winning streak ensures him 4 to 5 plate impressions. Peña faces White Sox starter Erick Fedde, a right-hander who has struggled significantly against right-handed hitters all season, surrendering a .265 BA, an .832 OPS, and 12 home runs across 166 ABs to RHBs. At +104 odds, the break-even probability is 49.0%, giving us an attractive value on a leadoff hitter in peak form who can clear 1.5 total bases with a single extra-base hit or multiple singles.

GARY'S PICK

ELLY DE LA CRUZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +113

Elly De La Cruz switch-hits and will bat from the left side today against Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy, directly targeting Leahy's primary defensive vulnerability. On the season, Leahy has allowed a .308 AVG and .860 OPS with 6 HR to left-handed batters across 185 ABs, alongside a 50.3% Hard-hit% allowed and a 10.7% Barrel%. De La Cruz possesses elite power-speed traits, batting .276 with 17 HR, 46 RBI, and an .852 OPS (333 AB, 92 H) on the year. His .472 SLG is backed by a .490 xSLG, and he has maintained strong rolling form with a .308 AVG (12-for-39) and .926 OPS over his last 15 games. Batting leadoff guarantees 4 to 5 plate appearance opportunities in 94°F weather at Busch Stadium, giving De La Cruz an excellent environment to log multiple bases via extra-base power or multiple hits.

GARY'S PICK

WYATT LANGFORDTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBRangers· +133

Wyatt Langford enters Sunday's game in peak offensive form, batting .417 (10-for-24) with 3 HRs, two doubles, and a 1.357 OPS over his last 7 games, and .350 (14-for-40) over his last 15. He has recorded multiple total bases in 3 of his last 4 games, including back-to-back extra-base hit performances in this series against Seattle (3-for-4 with two doubles on Saturday, 1-for-4 with a HR on Friday). Batting second in the Rangers' order provides a secure volume floor of 4+ plate appearances, and in day games this season, Langford produces a .295 AVG (26-for-88) with an .860 OPS. Opposing starter Logan Gilbert holds right-handed batters to a .240 AVG with a 0.98 WHIP, but Langford's elite current contact quality and top-of-the-order placement create strong value at +133 odds (42.9% break-even). Venue/Weather: Globe Life Field (Roof Closed, 72°F, Wind: 0 mph) neutralizes outdoor weather factors. Risk: Gilbert's strong overall control could limit Langford to a single hit or keep him off base in early at-bats.

GARY'S PICK

RYAN JEFFERSTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +106

Ryan Jeffers is in a prime spot as Minnesota's #3 hitter facing left-hander Jeffrey Springs. On the season, Jeffers carries a .922 OPS with 9 HR in 152 ABs. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting .278 (10-for-36) with 3 HR and 7 RBI, securing a hit in 9 of those 10 games. The matchup against Springs is exceptional: Springs surrenders an .887 OPS and 21 HR in 289 ABs to right-handed batters. With weather conditions at Target Field featuring 92°F extreme heat and an 8 mph wind blowing out to left field, Jeffers has high upside for extra bases.

GARY'S PICK

RAFAEL DEVERSTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +140

Rafael Devers is in an ideal spot to clear 1.5 Total Bases against Angels right-hander José Soriano. Devers destroys right-handed pitching, posting a .279 AVG and .922 OPS with 18 home runs in 269 ABs. Soriano exhibits a pronounced platoon vulnerability, surrendering a .708 OPS and 10 home runs to left-handed batters compared to just a .546 OPS to righties. Devers comes in red-hot after going 5-for-8 with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs over the first two games of this series. Batting cleanup in front of 13 mph winds blowing out to center field gives Devers maximum volume and environmental support to clear this line.

GARY'S PICK

RAFAEL DEVERSRBI OVER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +168

This Gary Special correlates directly with Devers' total bases prop. Devers bats cleanup behind elite table-setters Luis Arraez (.353 home AVG, 5-for-9 in series) and Bryce Eldridge. With Soriano allowing a .708 OPS to lefties, Arraez and Eldridge should create multiple RBI opportunities with runners in scoring position. Devers has driven in 7 runs over his last two games, and any extra-base hit or home run that clears his total bases line will simultaneously cash this RBI prop.

GARY'S PICK

PAUL GOLDSCHMIDTTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +125

Paul Goldschmidt is batting leadoff for the Yankees tonight as a right-handed hitter directly positioned to exploit Cristopher Sanchez's severe platoon split. Sanchez holds lefties to a .136 AVG, but surrenders a .297 AVG, .779 OPS, and 11 of his 12 home runs allowed to right-handed batters. Goldschmidt crushes lefties on the season (.333 AVG, 1.072 OPS) and has cleared 1.5 total bases in both games of this series (2 singles on July 25, solo home run on July 24). Leading off guarantees him 4 to 5 plate appearances to clear two bases against Sanchez and a thinned Philadelphia bullpen.

GARY'S PICK

J.T. REALMUTOSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +105

J.T. Realmuto comes into tonight riding a 10-game hitting streak, hitting an absurd .438 (14-for-32) over his last 15 days and .421 (8-for-19) over his last 7 days. He has been the lone bright spot in Philadelphia's offense during this series, going 2-for-3 with two singles on July 24 and 2-for-3 with two singles on July 25 (4-for-6 overall). Facing Will Warren, who allows over a hit per inning (102 hits in 99.0 IP) and carries a 1.37 WHIP, Realmuto is consistently barreling the ball into single opportunities. Getting +105 odds on a single for a hitter in this form against a starter yielding over a hit per frame offers distinct value above the 48.8% break-even threshold.

Research

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BULLPENSD @ MIA
San Diego Padres pen: 20 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Diego Padres's bullpen has thrown 20 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
PLATOON EDGENYY @ PHI
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Paul Goldschmidt's vs. Left line (1.072 OPS, 108 AB) sits well above his .607 mark the other way (155 AB). Tonight's starter Cristopher Sanchez throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
TEAM RECORDLAD @ NYM
Dodgers 1-7 in Emmet Sheehan's last 8 starts
Dodgers are 1-7 in Emmet Sheehan's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDTOR @ BOS
Blue Jays 1-7 in Kevin Gausman's last 8 starts
Blue Jays are 1-7 in Kevin Gausman's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 7 in a row. He starts tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADCOL @ MIL
Brewers are 6-1 vs Rockies this season
Brewers lead the season series 6-1 over Rockies. MIL won the last meeting 8-5.
HEAD-TO-HEADLAD @ NYM
Dodgers are 5-0 vs Mets this season
Dodgers lead the season series 5-0 over Mets. LAD won the last meeting 4-3.
PLATOON EDGELAA @ SF
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Jose Soriano (RHP), batting 6th
Drew Gilbert carries a .767 OPS vs. Right (183 AB) against .098 the other way (30 AB), and faces RHP Jose Soriano from the 6th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
STREAKNYY @ PHI
NYY games have gone UNDER 6 straight
New York Yankees games have stayed UNDER 6 straight — just 6.5 runs a night against an average line of 9.5. Tonight's number sits at 8.
P final total 15 vs 8
PLATOON EDGEARI @ WSH
Dylan Crews (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Dylan Crews's vs. Left line (.967 OPS, 65 AB) sits well above his .527 mark the other way (132 AB). Tonight's starter Kohl Drake throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
STREAKLAA @ SF
LAA games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Los Angeles Angels games have stayed UNDER 6 straight — just 4.5 runs a night against an average line of 8.2. Tonight's number sits at 8.
P final total 7 vs 8
SITUATIONALSD @ MIA
20 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 20 innings over the last 3 games (Matt Waldron (4) and JP Sears (3.3) the heaviest). MIA's pen has thrown 8.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 5-3
PLATOON EDGECOL @ MIL
Andrew Vaughn (bats R) hits 3rd against Kyle Freeland (LHP)
Over 63 AB vs. Left, Andrew Vaughn owns a 1.115 OPS versus .716 in 102 AB the other way. He sees LHP Kyle Freeland tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
TEAM RECORDCHC @ PIT
Cubs 2-6 in Jameson Taillon's last 8 starts
Cubs are 2-6 in Jameson Taillon's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDATL @ BAL
Orioles 2-6 in Shane Baz's last 8 starts
Orioles are 2-6 in Shane Baz's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDCOL @ MIL
Brewers 6-2 in Jacob Misiorowski's last 8 starts
Brewers are 6-2 in Jacob Misiorowski's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDKC @ DET
Royals 6-2 in Luinder Avila's last 8 starts
Royals are 6-2 in Luinder Avila's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDSD @ MIA
Padres 6-2 in Walker Buehler's last 8 starts
Padres are 6-2 in Walker Buehler's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADSEA @ TEX
Rangers are 7-3 vs Mariners this season
Rangers lead the season series 7-3 over Mariners. TEX won the last meeting 7-1.
PLATOON EDGEARI @ WSH
Brady House (bats R) gets a LHP from the 5th spot
Brady House's vs. Left line (.988 OPS, 48 AB) sits well above his .550 mark the other way (115 AB). Tonight's starter Kohl Drake throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-5, 4 TB
TEAM RECORDLAD @ NYM
Mets 2-6 in Freddy Peralta's last 8 starts
Mets are 2-6 in Freddy Peralta's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADNYY @ PHI
Yankees are 5-1 vs Phillies this season
Yankees lead the season series 5-1 over Phillies. NYY won the last meeting 3-1.
PLATOON EDGECOL @ MIL
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (.944 OPS, 186 AB) sits well above his .621 mark the other way (45 AB). Tonight's starter Jacob Misiorowski throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TOMORROWTOR @ WSH
Max Scherzer: 10.23 ERA vs 6.3 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 10.23 ERA against a 6.3 expected ERA (3.93 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .303 vs .272 expected.
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ CHW
Tristan Peters (bats L) hits 6th against Ronel Blanco (RHP)
Over 245 AB vs. Right, Tristan Peters owns a .848 OPS versus .369 in 30 AB the other way. He sees RHP Ronel Blanco tonight hitting 6th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGESD @ MIA
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Walker Buehler (RHP), batting 2nd
Kyle Stowers carries a .806 OPS vs. Right (236 AB) against .491 the other way (64 AB), and faces RHP Walker Buehler from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
HEAT CHECKSD @ MIA
Ty France: 1.336 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.336 OPS spans the last 15 days (43 PA) against a .885 season baseline, a 0.451 swing. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
STARTER FORMCHC @ PIT
Braxton Ashcraft: 8.56 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (13.7 IP) he has been tagged for 13 earned runs — a 8.56 ERA with a 1.83 WHIP (1.17 season) against a 3.95 season mark.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
STREAKCOL @ MIL
COL games have gone UNDER 5 straight
5 straight unders for COL — their games are producing only 12.2 runs against numbers around 14.3. Tonight's number sits at 7.5.
P final total 13 vs 7.5
COOLING OFFCLE @ TB
Yandy Diaz: .552 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Parker Messick
Yandy Diaz's .552 OPS over the last 15 days (53 PA) trails his .846 season mark, down 0.294. Tonight he draws LHP Parker Messick — his weaker side: a .836 OPS vs LHP across 109 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGELAA @ SF
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Rafael Devers's vs. Right line (.922 OPS, 269 AB) sits well above his .564 mark the other way (128 AB). Tonight's starter Jose Soriano throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKATL @ BAL
Drake Baldwin: 1.272 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 42 PA: a 1.272 OPS versus .845 for the season, 0.427 above his norm. He has 20 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB, 3 BB
SITUATIONALTOR @ BOS
BOS's pen has logged 16.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 16.7 innings out of the pen — Brayan Bello (5.3) and Alec Gamboa (5) carried the load. TOR's pen has thrown only 6 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-6
BULLPENOAK @ MIN
Minnesota Twins pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Minnesota Twins's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 5 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
PLATOON EDGESD @ MIA
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 5th against Walker Buehler (RHP)
Over 253 AB vs. Right, Liam Hicks owns a .884 OPS versus .519 in 69 AB the other way. He sees RHP Walker Buehler tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKARI @ WSH
CJ Abrams: 1.335 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.335 OPS spans the last 15 days (42 PA) against a .921 season baseline, a 0.414 swing. He has 25 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 3-for-5, 9 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADCIN @ STL
Cardinals are 5-2 vs Reds this season
Cardinals lead the season series 5-2 over Reds. STL won the last meeting 7-0.
HEAD-TO-HEADKC @ DET
Tigers are 6-3 vs Royals this season
Tigers lead the season series 6-3 over Royals. KC took the last meeting 3-2 — a revenge spot.
HEAD-TO-HEADCLE @ TB
Rays are 4-1 vs Guardians this season
Rays lead the season series 4-1 over Guardians. TB won the last meeting 3-0.
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ CHW
Andrew Benintendi (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Andrew Benintendi's vs. Right line (.765 OPS, 247 AB) sits well above his .416 mark the other way (35 AB). Tonight's starter Ronel Blanco throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
BULLPENLAA @ SF
Los Angeles Angels pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Los Angeles Angels's bullpen has thrown 13.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
BATTER VS ARMTOR @ BOS
Masataka Yoshida vs Kevin Gausman: .533
In 15 career at-bats against Kevin Gausman, Masataka Yoshida is 8-for-15 for a 1.467 OPS. The two square off again tonight. He enters hot (.816 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
STARTER FORMKC @ DET
Framber Valdez: 8.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 12.7 innings, 12 earned runs, 17 hits. That 8.53 ERA runs 3.96 over his 4.57 season number.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
HEAT CHECKCLE @ TB
Steven Kwan: 1.064 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 37 PA: a 1.064 OPS versus .658 for the season, 0.406 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
STARTER FORMSD @ MIA
Walker Buehler: 9.24 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 9.24 ERA over his last 12.7 innings with a 1.74 WHIP (1.43 season) — the 5.23 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
BALLPARKNYY @ PHI
Cristopher Sanchez owns a 1.15 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 4.97 everywhere else
Across 12 games (78.3 IP) at Citizens Bank Park, Cristopher Sanchez has a 1.15 ERA against 4.97 at his other parks (54.3 IP). Hitters bat .197 off him here.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
PLATOON EDGEKC @ DET
Gleyber Torres (bats R) hits 3rd against Luinder Avila (RHP)
Over 134 AB vs. Right, Gleyber Torres owns a .838 OPS versus .590 in 39 AB the other way. He sees RHP Luinder Avila tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKSD @ MIA
Luis Rengifo: 1.227 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 24 PA: a 1.227 OPS versus .608 for the season, 0.619 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
PLATOON EDGECLE @ TB
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 5th against Drew Rasmussen (RHP)
Over 187 AB vs. Right, Travis Bazzana owns a .843 OPS versus .535 in 90 AB the other way. He sees RHP Drew Rasmussen tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKNYY @ PHI
Trea Turner: 1.062 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (37 PA) he is at a 1.062 OPS, up 0.383 on his .679 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season.
P 2-for-5, 4 TB
HR THREATBraves @ Orioles
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin is batting leadoff for Atlanta, securing maximum PA volume (4-5 plate appearances) against Shane Baz. Baz has displayed significant platoon vulnerability against left-handed hitters, allowing a .276 AVG and .780 OPS.
P 0 HR — 2-for-3, 2 TB, 3 BB
PLATOON EDGEKC @ DET
Salvador Perez (bats R) draws Framber Valdez (LHP), batting 3rd
Salvador Perez carries a .810 OPS vs. Left (100 AB) against .558 the other way (281 AB), and faces LHP Framber Valdez from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
STREAKNYY @ PHI
PHI have lost 4 straight
PHI have lost 4 straight and been outscored by 8 over the run. Last 8: 2-6.
P team won 4-11
COOLING OFFCIN @ STL
Ivan Herrera: .372 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Andrew Abbott
Ivan Herrera's .372 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .740 season mark, down 0.368. Tonight he draws LHP Andrew Abbott — his stronger side: a .804 OPS vs LHP across 107 AB.
P 2-for-5, 5 TB
COOLING OFFOAK @ MIN
Ryan Kreidler: .290 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Jeffrey Springs
Ryan Kreidler's .290 OPS over the last 15 days (31 PA) trails his .675 season mark, down 0.385. Tonight he draws LHP Jeffrey Springs — his weaker side: a .623 OPS vs LHP across 64 AB.
P 3-for-4, 7 TB
COOLING OFFCHC @ PIT
Bryan Reynolds: .533 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jameson Taillon
Bryan Reynolds's .533 OPS over the last 15 days (40 PA) trails his .837 season mark, down 0.304. Tonight he draws RHP Jameson Taillon — his weaker side: a .817 OPS vs RHP across 250 AB.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
HR THREATBraves @ Orioles
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been on an absolute tear, hitting 3 home runs over his last 6 games while posting a .677 xSLG and .405 xwOBA. Facing Braves starter Reynaldo López, who surrenders 1.36 HR/9 (10 HR in 66 IP) and carries a 4.89 xERA, Encarnacion-Strand gets a prime launching pad.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
STREAKKC @ DET
DET games have gone UNDER 4 straight
The under has cashed 4 in a row in DET games: 5 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 7. Tonight's number sits at 9.
P final total 9 vs 9
COOLING OFFNYY @ PHI
Brandon Marsh: .348 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Will Warren
Brandon Marsh's .348 OPS over the last 15 days (33 PA) trails his .795 season mark, down 0.447. Tonight he draws RHP Will Warren — his stronger side: a .853 OPS vs RHP across 263 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
HEAT CHECKCLE @ TB
Nick Fortes: 1.212 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 26 PA: a 1.212 OPS versus .707 for the season, 0.505 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKHOU @ CHW
Yordan Alvarez: 1.444 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 36 PA: a 1.444 OPS versus 1.077 for the season, 0.367 above his norm. He has 34 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
BULLPENHOU @ CHW
Houston Astros pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Houston Astros's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
COOLING OFFKC @ DET
Kerry Carpenter: .207 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Luinder Avila
Kerry Carpenter's .207 OPS over the last 15 days (29 PA) trails his .698 season mark, down 0.491. Tonight he draws RHP Luinder Avila — his stronger side: a .730 OPS vs RHP across 206 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
BULLPENSEA @ TEX
Texas Rangers pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Texas Rangers's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSHOU @ CHW
Miguel Vargas
Vargas hits in the heart of the order and carries a strong 0.83 OPS into a matchup against the struggling Ronel Blanco. With Blanco sporting a 6.76 xERA, Vargas is in a prime position to produce significant offensive numbers. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
COOLING OFFSD @ MIA
Xavier Edwards: .425 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Walker Buehler
Xavier Edwards's .425 OPS over the last 15 days (39 PA) trails his .773 season mark, down 0.348. Tonight he draws RHP Walker Buehler — his stronger side: a .774 OPS vs RHP across 293 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
CUT LISTHOU tonight
Ronel Blanco
Blanco is providing a 7.71 ERA with a 6.76 xERA that supports this poor production. Starting him tonight risks an outing of heavy damage to your season-long ratios based on these specific metrics. Cut him in 10- and 12-team leagues.
PLATOON EDGECLE @ TB
Steven Kwan (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Steven Kwan's vs. Right line (.709 OPS, 234 AB) sits well above his .532 mark the other way (93 AB). Tonight's starter Drew Rasmussen throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
TOMORROWBOS @ OAK
Jack Perkins: 6.75 ERA vs 4.2 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs BOS. A 6.75 ERA against a 4.2 expected ERA (2.55 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .259 vs .239 expected.
PARK WEATHERLAA @ SF
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Conditions at Oracle Park: Sunny, 64°, wind 13 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 7 vs 8.5 (over lean)
REGRESSIONATL @ BAL
Reynaldo Lopez: 6.12 ERA vs 3.85 xERA
Reynaldo Lopez carries a 6.12 ERA against a 3.85 expected ERA (2.27 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .269 off him vs a .219 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
COOLING OFFARI @ WSH
Ketel Marte: .508 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Miles Mikolas
Ketel Marte's .508 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .761 season mark, down 0.253. Tonight he draws RHP Miles Mikolas — his weaker side: a .702 OPS vs RHP across 295 AB.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
HR THREATAstros @ White Sox
Yordan Alvarez
1. THE PICK: Yordan Alvarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+210) 2.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
COOLING OFFTOR @ BOS
Kazuma Okamoto: .484 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Ranger Suarez
Kazuma Okamoto's .484 OPS over the last 15 days (39 PA) trails his .754 season mark, down 0.27. Tonight he draws LHP Ranger Suarez — his weaker side: a .750 OPS vs LHP across 90 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
SITUATIONALLAA @ SF
LAA's pen has logged 13.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 13.7 innings out of the pen — Brent Suter (3.7) and Kirby Yates (3) carried the load. SF's pen has thrown 9 over the same span.
P flagged side won 4-3
HEAT CHECKCIN @ STL
Eugenio Suarez: 1.041 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (34 PA) he is at a 1.041 OPS, up 0.351 on his .690 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTNYM tonight
Jorge Polanco
Polanco provides a dismal .154 batting average and a .437 OPS while hitting fifth for the Mets. Starting a player with these numbers tonight ruins team batting categories while he occupies a run-producing spot in the lineup. Cut him in all standard formats.
PLATOON EDGEATL @ BAL
Colton Cowser (bats L) hits 6th against Reynaldo Lopez (RHP)
Over 186 AB vs. Right, Colton Cowser owns a .678 OPS versus .403 in 29 AB the other way. He sees RHP Reynaldo Lopez tonight hitting 6th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
STARTER FORMCIN @ STL
Kyle Leahy: 0.64 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 1 earned runs over his last 14 innings (0.64 ERA) with a 0.64 WHIP (1.35 season) — a different pitcher than the 3.59 season line says.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
HEAT CHECKCOL @ MIL
Joey Ortiz: 1.014 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 32 PA: a 1.014 OPS versus .651 for the season, 0.363 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
TOMORROWATL @ NYM
Zac Thornton: 1.93 ERA vs 4.21 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ATL. A 1.93 ERA against a 4.21 expected ERA (2.28 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .175 vs .251 expected.
FANTASY PICKUPSHOU @ CHW
Tristan Peters
Peters provides a steady 0.287 average and is well-positioned in the lineup to take advantage of Blanco's poor recent form. The gap between Peters' production and Blanco's 6.76 xERA suggests a high probability for multi-hit potential. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
HEAT CHECKKC @ DET
Hao-Yu Lee: 1.119 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (30 PA) he is at a 1.119 OPS, up 0.377 on his .742 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 4.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFARI @ WSH
James Wood: .710 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Kohl Drake
James Wood's .710 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .937 season mark, down 0.227. Tonight he draws LHP Kohl Drake — his weaker side: a .844 OPS vs LHP across 148 AB.
P 2-for-4, 8 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFLAD @ NYM
A.J. Ewing: .467 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Emmet Sheehan
A.J. Ewing's .467 OPS over the last 15 days (44 PA) trails his .743 season mark, down 0.276. Tonight he draws RHP Emmet Sheehan — his stronger side: a .744 OPS vs RHP across 174 AB.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 2 BB
SITUATIONALHOU @ CHW
13 bullpen innings in 3 games for HOU
Relievers have absorbed 13 innings over the last 3 games (Bryan Abreu (2.7) and Steven Okert (2) the heaviest). CHW's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 3-12
SITUATIONALCLE @ TB
TB's bullpen has covered 13 innings over the last 3 games
That is 13 relief innings in 3 games, led by Ian Seymour (6) and Chris Roycroft (3). CLE's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 0-1
SITUATIONALSEA @ TEX
TEX's pen has logged 13 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 13 innings out of the pen — Cal Quantrill (3) and Jakob Junis (2) carried the load. SEA's pen has thrown 8.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 6-4
REGRESSIONCHC @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: .283 AVG vs .222 xBA
Esmerlyn Valdez's .283 average comes against a .222 expected (xBA) on 139 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .439 against a .364 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMOAK @ MIN
Jeffrey Springs: 8.59 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 8.59 ERA over his last 14.7 innings with a 1.98 WHIP (1.42 season) — the 5.96 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 1.1 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
COOLING OFFSD @ MIA
Kyle Stowers: .433 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Walker Buehler
Kyle Stowers's .433 OPS over the last 15 days (37 PA) trails his .739 season mark, down 0.306. Tonight he draws RHP Walker Buehler — his stronger side: a .806 OPS vs RHP across 236 AB.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
TOMORROWARI @ PIT
Merrill Kelly: 5.12 ERA vs 7.29 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs PIT. A 5.12 ERA against a 7.29 expected ERA (2.17 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .279 vs .305 expected.
SITUATIONALARI @ WSH
WSH's bullpen has covered 13 innings over the last 3 games
That is 13 relief innings in 3 games, led by Zack Littell (5) and Eddy Yean (3.3). ARI's pen has thrown 9 over the same span.
P flagged side won 7-10
SITUATIONALOAK @ MIN
13 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Relievers have absorbed 13 innings over the last 3 games (Hayden Juenger (3.3) and Mason Barnett (3.3) the heaviest). MIN's pen has thrown 13 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 8-11
HEAT CHECKARI @ WSH
Tim Tawa: .959 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 41 PA: a .959 OPS versus .716 for the season, 0.243 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
CUT LISTSF tonight
Carson Whisenhunt
Whisenhunt has a 3.38 surface ERA, but his 5.58 xERA indicates he is actually pitching poorly. Rostering him for tonight's start forces you to gamble your ratios on a pitcher whose 5.58 xERA points toward a blow-up. Cut him in 10- and 12-team leagues.
HEAT CHECKKC @ DET
Salvador Perez: .890 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (38 PA) he is at a .890 OPS, up 0.265 on his .625 season mark. He has 15 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTARI tonight
Kohl Drake
Drake maintains a 1.8 ERA while his 5.61 xERA reveals he is pitching far worse than the surface results. Starting him tonight risks your staff's efficiency on a pitcher whose 5.61 xERA indicates he is a liability. Keep him off your ratios.
BALLPARKOAK @ MIN
At Target Field, Connor Prielipp pitches to a 4.15 ERA
Connor Prielipp at Target Field: 4.15 ERA over 43.3 innings (8G) — 6.56 on a 23.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .215 off him here.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
PLATOON EDGEATL @ BAL
Pete Alonso (bats R) draws Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), batting 2nd
Pete Alonso carries a .843 OPS vs. Right (276 AB) against .701 the other way (117 AB), and faces RHP Reynaldo Lopez from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB, 1 BB
BULLPENNYY @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Philadelphia Phillies's bullpen has thrown 12.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
HEAT CHECKARI @ WSH
Nolan Arenado: 1.006 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (36 PA) he is at a 1.006 OPS, up 0.255 on his .751 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMATL @ BAL
Reynaldo Lopez: 6.28 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 14.3 innings, 10 earned runs, 17 hits. That 6.28 ERA runs 2.32 over his 3.95 season number.
P 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
FANTASY PICKUPSHOU @ CHW
Andrew Benintendi
Benintendi occupies the five-spot and faces a pitcher in Blanco who is currently a liability on the mound. Given Blanco's high xERA and struggles, Benintendi is a calculated play for those needing run production and stability. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
BALLPARKLAD @ NYM
Freddy Peralta's ERA drops to 4.08 at Citi Field
Freddy Peralta carries a 4.08 ERA over 12 games (64 IP) at Citi Field vs 6.31 across 45.7 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .239 off him here.
P 4 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
REGRESSIONCIN @ STL
Kyle Leahy: 3.59 ERA vs 5.23 xERA
Kyle Leahy carries a 3.59 ERA against a 5.23 expected ERA (1.64 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .262 off him vs a .272 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
REGRESSIONCHC @ PIT
Nico Hoerner: .244 AVG vs .293 xBA
Nico Hoerner is hitting .244 against a .293 expected average (xBA) over 455 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .289 against a .321 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
RUNNING GAMECLE @ TB
Green light: Tampa Bay Rays run, and Austin Hedges has caught just 6%
Austin Hedges is catching tonight at 6% on the season (2-for-35 throwing), and Tampa Bay Rays attempt 1.3 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 0 bases
REGRESSIONCOL @ MIL
Mickey Moniak: .277 AVG vs .227 xBA
Mickey Moniak's .277 average comes against a .227 expected (xBA) on 251 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .373 against a .305 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
CLOSER WATCHLAA @ SF
Ryan Zeferjahn / Kirby Yates
Ryan Zeferjahn and Kirby Yates are locked in a dead heat with three saves each for the Angels. This committee structure limits the ceiling for both pitchers until one arm separates himself in the hierarchy. Handcuff both if you chase saves.
CLOSER WATCHKC @ DET
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Lucas Erceg and Alex Lange are split by only two saves in a Kansas City committee that lacks a primary arm. This shared workload means neither pitcher is a reliable solo source for fantasy managers right now. Handcuff both if you chase saves.
CLOSER WATCHCHC @ PIT
Jacob Webb / Daniel Palencia
Jacob Webb and Daniel Palencia are operating in a committee where both see ninth-inning chances for the Cubs. This narrow margin of five saves for Webb and three for Palencia suggests a fluid situation for managers hunting saves in Chicago. Handcuff both if you chase saves.
REGRESSIONCOL @ MIL
Kyle Freeland: 7.28 ERA vs 5.62 xERA
Kyle Freeland carries a 7.28 ERA against a 5.62 expected ERA (1.66 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .317 off him vs a .294 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
BATTER VS ARMTOR @ BOS
Willson Contreras vs Kevin Gausman: .364
Willson Contreras's career line off Kevin Gausman is 4-for-11, a .364 average over 11 at-bats with 2 home runs — they meet again tonight. He enters hot (1.180 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
FANTASY PICKUPSHOU @ CHW
Braden Montgomery
Montgomery bats cleanup tonight, giving him maximum exposure to a pitcher with a ballooning 6.76 xERA. His 0.718 OPS should play up in this favorable environment against a struggling Houston starter. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
BATTER VS ARMCIN @ STL
Andrew Abbott vs Jordan Walker: 0-for-12, 6 K
Jordan Walker has managed only 0-for-12 (.000) off Andrew Abbott, striking out 6 times in 12 career at-bats — they meet again tonight.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
BATTER VS ARMSEA @ TEX
Julio Rodriguez vs Jacob deGrom: .455
Julio Rodriguez's career line off Jacob deGrom is 5-for-11, a .455 average over 11 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters cold (.560 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
RETURN WATCHCHW — return listed 7/26
Everson Pereira
Everson Pereira is on the 7-day IL for a concussion and is listed back for July 26. Grab him today to avoid a waiver battle for his 0.719 OPS since he is listed to return immediately. Stash him now.
STARTER FORMNYY @ PHI
Cristopher Sanchez: 4.73 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 13.3 innings, 7 earned runs, 20 hits. That 4.73 ERA runs 2.08 over his 2.65 season number.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
REGRESSIONCOL @ MIL
TJ Rumfield: .298 AVG vs .255 xBA
TJ Rumfield's .298 average comes against a .255 expected (xBA) on 415 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .377 against a .327 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
BATTER VS ARMSEA @ TEX
Logan Gilbert vs Evan Carter: 1-for-12, 7 K
Evan Carter has managed only 1-for-12 (.083) off Logan Gilbert, striking out 7 times in 12 career at-bats — they meet again tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFKC @ DET
Jac Caglianone: .548 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Framber Valdez
Jac Caglianone's .548 OPS over the last 15 days (31 PA) trails his .768 season mark, down 0.22. Tonight he draws LHP Framber Valdez — his weaker side: a .712 OPS vs LHP across 101 AB.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
BATTER VS ARMSEA @ TEX
Logan Gilbert vs Ezequiel Duran: 1-for-11, 5 K
Ezequiel Duran has managed only 1-for-11 (.091) off Logan Gilbert, striking out 5 times in 11 career at-bats — they meet again tonight.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
REGRESSIONSD @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .331 AVG vs .289 xBA
Otto Lopez is hitting .331 against a .289 expected average (xBA) over 437 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .370 against a .335 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFTOR @ BOS
Jarren Duran: .377 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kevin Gausman
Jarren Duran's .377 OPS over the last 15 days (38 PA) trails his .592 season mark, down 0.215. Tonight he draws RHP Kevin Gausman — his stronger side: a .597 OPS vs RHP across 281 AB.
P 3-for-4, 3 TB
REGRESSIONTOR @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela: .279 AVG vs .242 xBA
Ceddanne Rafaela's .279 average comes against a .242 expected (xBA) on 406 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .332 against a .281 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
CUT LISTSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Cronenworth occupies the second spot in the order but produces a sub-.600 OPS and a .206 average. Committing to him in tonight's lineup forces a roster to absorb production that fails to reach basic offensive benchmarks. Cut him in 10- and 12-team leagues.
REGRESSIONLAD @ NYM
Emmet Sheehan: 5.13 ERA vs 3.88 xERA
Emmet Sheehan carries a 5.13 ERA against a 3.88 expected ERA (1.25 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .249 off him vs a .232 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
HEAT CHECKATL @ BAL
Gunnar Henderson: .850 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (42 PA) he is at a .850 OPS, up 0.149 on his .701 season mark. He has 18 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
RETURN WATCHSEA — return listed 7/28
Brendan Donovan
Brendan Donovan is on the 10-day IL with a groin strain and is listed for a July 28 return. Act before his return in two days to lock in a player carrying a 0.839 OPS on the season. Stash him now.
REGRESSIONLAD @ NYM
Freddy Peralta: 5.01 ERA vs 3.82 xERA
Freddy Peralta carries a 5.01 ERA against a 3.82 expected ERA (1.19 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .261 off him vs a .235 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 4 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ WSH
Andres Chaparro
Chaparro bats second and brings a solid 0.8 OPS into a matchup against Kohl Drake and his inflated 5.61 xERA. Drake is struggling significantly, making this a prime spot for Chaparro to produce from the top of the order. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
REGRESSIONOAK @ MIN
Jeffrey Springs: 5.96 ERA vs 4.77 xERA
Jeffrey Springs carries a 5.96 ERA against a 4.77 expected ERA (1.19 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .267 off him vs a .250 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 1.1 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
STARTER FORMKC @ DET
Luinder Avila: 3.31 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 6 earned runs over his last 16.3 innings (3.31 ERA) with a 1.22 WHIP (1.56 season) — a different pitcher than the 4.86 season line says.
P 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
PARK WEATHERCIN @ STL
94° at Busch Stadium — the ball will carry tonight
Conditions at Busch Stadium: Partly Cloudy, 94°, wind 5 mph, Out To CF. Heat like this turns warning-track outs into souvenirs. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 8 vs 8.5 (over lean)
CUT LISTKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Perez is hitting just .210 with a .625 OPS while slotted as the third hitter for Kansas City. Keeping him in a starting lineup tonight results in stagnant offensive totals from a premier batting position. Drop him in shallow leagues.
FANTASY PICKUPSCLE @ TB
Drew Rasmussen
Streamer vs CLE — 3.33 xERA · 8.9 K/9 · 0.98 WHIP.
FANTASY PICKUPSCLE @ TB
Parker Messick
Streamer vs TB — 3.23 xERA · 8.9 K/9 · 1.05 WHIP.
TOMORROWPHI @ MIA
Tyler Phillips: 3.52 ERA vs 4.79 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs PHI. A 3.52 ERA against a 4.79 expected ERA (1.27 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .245 vs .261 expected.
HEAT CHECKTOR @ BOS
Willson Contreras: 1.180 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 25 PA: a 1.180 OPS versus .941 for the season, 0.239 above his norm. He has 22 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
FANTASY PICKUPSCIN @ STL
JJ Bleday
Bleday is hitting in the three-hole with a strong 0.821 OPS and faces a vulnerable Kyle Leahy. Leahy’s 5.26 xERA shows he is susceptible to damage, and Bleday has the power numbers to capitalize on those mistakes. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ WSH
Gabriel Moreno
Pickup vs Miles Mikolas (5.08 xERA) — .841 OPS, bats 3rd.
CLOSER WATCHTOR @ BOS
Aroldis Chapman
Aroldis Chapman has compiled twenty-four saves and functions as the definitive closer in Boston ahead of Garrett Whitlock. His high save count shows the role is his alone and provides stability for any fantasy roster. Roster him for saves.
TOMORROWATL @ NYM
Martín Pérez: 3.38 ERA vs 4.6 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs NYM. A 3.38 ERA against a 4.6 expected ERA (1.23 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .216 vs .258 expected.
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Alejandro Kirk
Kirk's .220 batting average and .640 OPS represent a significant void in offensive production for a player consistently hitting third in the lineup. Continuing to roster him means wasting a premium lineup spot on a hitter who actively suppresses a team's batting average. Cut him in 10- and 12-team leagues.
RETURN WATCHCOL — return listed 7/29
Blas Castano
Blas Castano is on the 15-day IL for a pectoral issue and is listed back for July 29. Managers should claim him now to secure his 3.92 ERA before he returns to the active roster in three days. Stash him now.
CLOSER WATCHCLE @ TB
Bryan Baker
Bryan Baker has locked down twenty-seven saves and faces no real threat from Kevin Kelly for the closing job in Tampa Bay. His heavy save volume indicates he is the undisputed ninth-inning option with a very secure role. Roster him for saves.
CLOSER WATCHCLE @ TB
Cade Smith
Cade Smith is the clear leader in this bullpen with twenty-nine saves on the season for Cleveland. His massive lead over Matt Festa confirms he has full control of the ninth inning for the foreseeable future. Roster him for saves.
CLOSER WATCHARI @ WSH
Paul Sewald
Paul Sewald holds twenty-four saves and remains the only choice over Jonathan Loaisiga for the final three outs in Arizona. This workload discrepancy proves Sewald is the only reliable arm to trust for save opportunities on this roster. Roster him for saves.
CLOSER WATCHATL @ BAL
Raisel Iglesias
Raisel Iglesias has recorded twenty-one saves and maintains a firm grip on the ninth inning ahead of Robert Suarez. This lead in saves confirms that Iglesias is the primary arm for managers requiring consistent closing production. Roster him for saves.
FANTASY PICKUPSCIN @ STL
Nathaniel Lowe
Lowe hits fifth and offers a steady 0.8 OPS against a struggling Kyle Leahy. With Leahy pitching to a 5.26 xERA, Lowe is in a good position to drive in runs and take advantage of a pitcher who is currently out of form. Deep-league dart only.
COOLING OFFARI @ WSH
Geraldo Perdomo: .556 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Miles Mikolas
Geraldo Perdomo's .556 OPS over the last 15 days (37 PA) trails his .700 season mark, down 0.144. Tonight he draws RHP Miles Mikolas — his stronger side: a .730 OPS vs RHP across 251 AB.
P 1-for-2, 4 TB, 3 BB
BALLPARKCIN @ STL
At Busch Stadium, Kyle Leahy pitches to a 2.94 ERA
Kyle Leahy at Busch Stadium: 2.94 ERA over 49 innings (10G) — 4.27 on a 46.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .249 off him here.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
BALLPARKTOR @ BOS
Ranger Suarez's ERA jumps to 3.86 at Fenway Park
Ranger Suarez carries a 3.86 ERA over 8 games (42 IP) at Fenway Park vs 2.55 across 49.3 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .234 off him here.
P 4 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 7/28
Enrique Hernandez
Enrique Hernandez is currently on the 10-day IL with an oblique injury and is listed back for July 28. Secure him on your bench now to prevent losing him to a rival manager when he returns in two days. Stash him now.
TOMORROWMIL @ SF
Tyler Mahle: 5.31 ERA vs 4.29 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIL. A 5.31 ERA against a 4.29 expected ERA (1.02 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .274 vs .252 expected.
CUT LISTCLE tonight
Steven Kwan
Kwan is providing a .248 average and a .658 OPS despite batting in the leadoff spot for Cleveland. Rostering him at these specific production levels forces you to carry a weak OPS that drags down your team's cumulative totals. Cut him in 10- and 12-team leagues.
RUNNING GAMESD @ MIA
San Diego Padres like to run — Joe Mack (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Joe Mack owns a 33% caught-stealing rate (19 of 57) and San Diego Padres run anyway — 1 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P San Diego Padres stole 0 bases
FANTASY PICKUPSKC @ DET
Riley Greene
Pickup vs Luinder Avila (4.76 xERA) — .843 OPS, bats 4th.
FIRST INNINGSEA @ TEX
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Seattle Mariners have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 7/31
Carter Baumler
Carter Baumler is on the 60-day IL with a rib injury and is listed back for July 31. With five days left until his return, stashing his 3.18 ERA now prevents a bidding war later this week. Worth a bench spot in deeper leagues.
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ WSH
Ketel Marte
Pickup vs Miles Mikolas (5.08 xERA) — .761 OPS, bats 4th.
RETURN WATCHTOR — return listed 7/31
Jesus Sanchez
Jesus Sanchez is currently on the 10-day IL with an ankle injury and is listed back for July 31. Managers should allocate a bench spot now to secure his 0.753 OPS five days ahead of his expected return. Worth a bench spot in deeper leagues.
FIRST INNINGSD @ MIA
MIA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Miami Marlins have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
RUNNING GAMESEA @ TEX
Seattle Mariners like to run — Elias Diaz (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Seattle Mariners attempt 1 steals a game, but Elias Diaz has cut down 5 of 15 runners (33%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Seattle Mariners stole 0 bases
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ WSH
Nolan Arenado
Pickup vs Miles Mikolas (5.08 xERA) — .751 OPS, bats 6th.
RUNNING GAMECOL @ MIL
Colorado Rockies like to run — Gary Sanchez (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Gary Sanchez owns a 33% caught-stealing rate (5 of 15) and Colorado Rockies run anyway — 0.7 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Colorado Rockies stole 0 bases
RETURN WATCHBAL — return listed 8/1
Ryan Mountcastle
Ryan Mountcastle is on the 60-day IL with a foot injury and is listed back for August 1. Add him six days before his listed return to secure his 0.690 OPS without fighting for him on waivers. Worth a bench spot in deeper leagues.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/1
Robert Garcia
Robert Garcia is on the 60-day IL for his shoulder and is listed for an August 1 return. Use a bench spot now to get ahead of the league for his 3.38 ERA with only six days remaining on his stint. Worth a bench spot in deeper leagues.
RUNNING GAMECIN @ STL
Cincinnati Reds like to run — Pedro Pages (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Cincinnati Reds attempt 0.9 steals a game, but Pedro Pages has cut down 17 of 52 runners (33%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Cincinnati Reds stole 0 bases
RUNNING GAMEOAK @ MIN
Green light: Minnesota Twins run, and Jonah Heim has caught just 15%
Jonah Heim is catching tonight at 15% on the season (6-for-40 throwing), and Minnesota Twins attempt 0.9 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Minnesota Twins stole 3 bases
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ WSH
Corbin Carroll
Pickup vs Miles Mikolas (5.08 xERA) — .830 OPS, bats 1st.
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ BOS
Kevin Gausman
Streamer vs BOS — 4.01 xERA · 9.1 K/9 · 1.28 WHIP.
FIRST INNINGARI @ WSH
ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Arizona Diamondbacks have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGLAD @ NYM
LAD have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGCHC @ PIT
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Pittsburgh Pirates have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

L
Guardians ML +110
MLB · 0-1
W
Red Sox ML -147
MLB · 1-6
L
Cubs ML +109
MLB · 7-8
W
Padres ML +104
MLB · 5-3
L
Diamondbacks ML -114
MLB · 7-10
L
Dodgers ML -150
MLB · 3-8
W
Royals +1.5 -126
MLB · 5-4
W
Brewers -1.5 -163
MLB · 2-11
W
White Sox ML -114
MLB · 3-12
W
Braves ML -112
MLB · 3-2
L
Athletics ML +134
MLB · 8-11
W
Reds ML +113
MLB · 5-3
L
Rangers ML -117
MLB · 6-4

Props

W
Andrew Vaughn · over
Rockies @ Brewers · Actual 4
L
Christian Encarnacion-Strand · over
Braves @ Orioles · Actual 1
W
CJ Abrams · over
Diamondbacks @ Nationals · Actual 9
W
Dillon Dingler · over
Royals @ Tigers · Actual 2
W
Drake Baldwin · over
Braves @ Orioles · Actual 2
W
Elly De La Cruz · over
Reds @ Cardinals · Actual 5
W
Freddie Freeman · over
Dodgers @ Mets · Actual 3
W
Gabriel Moreno · over
Diamondbacks @ Nationals · Actual 4
W
Jackson Merrill · over
Padres @ Marlins · Actual 4
W
Jeremy Pena · over
Astros @ White Sox · Actual 8
L
J.T. Realmuto · over
Yankees @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Junior Caminero · over
Guardians @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Paul Goldschmidt · over
Yankees @ Phillies · Actual 1
W
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Pirates · Actual 3
L
Rafael Devers · over
Angels @ Giants · Actual 0
L
Rafael Devers · over
Angels @ Giants · Actual 0
W
Ryan Jeffers · over
Athletics @ Twins · Actual 3
L
Salvador Perez · over
Royals @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Willson Contreras · over
Blue Jays @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Wyatt Langford · over
Mariners @ Rangers · Actual 1
L
Yandy Diaz · over
Guardians @ Rays · Actual 0