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2026-07-25

The stored Gary board for Sat, Jul 25. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

15
MLB1:10 PM

Royals @ Tigers

Saturday afternoon at Comerica Park, Detroit goes for its third straight win in this series with Casey Mize facing Michael Wacha. I’m backing the Tigers to win outright, but I’m not asking them to win by more than one because the first two games were tight. The starting pitching matchup is the main reason for my bet. Mize has pitched better than Wacha both in actual results and in the quality of contact he has allowed. Mize has also been stronger at home and during the day, while Wacha has struggled more on the road and in daytime games. Most of Kansas City’s lineup will hit left-handed against Mize, and he has handled left-handed hitters well. Bobby Witt Junior is also newly injured, taking away a hitter who had done plenty of damage against Mize, including a pair of home runs. Detroit has played well at home, while Kansas City has struggled badly on the road. The Tigers have also made much better contact over their past few games. Detroit’s late-game pitching is in workable shape too: Kyle Finnegan and Tyler Holton rested Friday, and Kenley Jansen barely had to work. Since Detroit won each of the first two games by only one run, I’m simply trusting Mize’s matchup and asking the Tigers to win.

Detroit Tigers ML-158
CONF
66%
MLB4:05 PM

Diamondbacks @ Nationals

Saturday afternoon at Nationals Park, Arizona comes in on a winning streak while Washington starts its most dependable pitcher. The warm air and light breeze toward left field may help the hitters, but I don’t think Arizona’s hot run is enough to overcome the clear difference between the starting pitchers. I’m backing Washington simply to win. Foster Griffin has been excellent and consistently keeps runners and runs off the board. Mitch Bratt is making only his fourth big-league start, has struggled so far, and will be limited to a relatively low number of pitches. The deeper performance measures also favor Griffin. Bratt relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, and hitters have done serious damage against it, while Griffin’s version has been extremely effective. Washington is also set up well against that pitch, especially James Wood and CJ Abrams. That is the matchup advantage I trust most. Arizona still deserves respect. The Diamondbacks have been winning and scoring plenty lately, while Washington has been less consistent. Arizona also has the cleaner defense and stronger relief pitching. That’s why I’m taking Washington only to win instead of asking for a multi-run victory. I expect Griffin to pitch deep enough to protect Washington from its weaker late-game options, while the Nationals get the better chance against Bratt and Arizona’s earlier relief pitchers. I’m willing to pay a little extra to back the team with the superior starter.

Nationals ML-134
CONF
64%
MLB4:05 PM

Angels @ Giants

The sun is out at Oracle Park, the wind is blowing toward center field, and both teams are back quickly after San Francisco’s one-run win in the opener. The starting pitchers are closer than their usual results suggest, but Robbie Ray’s strong pitching at home and in daytime games gives him the edge for me. Ryan Johnson has struggled badly on the road and has also been worse during the day. Nearly the entire Angels lineup will bat right-handed against Ray, and he has handled right-handed hitters well. Johnson has struggled against hitters from both sides, while San Francisco can send several left-handed bats at him. His sinker has been hit hard, and Luis Arraez and Rafael Devers have both handled that pitch well. The Giants also used fewer relievers and threw far fewer bullpen pitches last night. That matters because Johnson has failed to pitch deep into either of his last two starts. I’m taking the Giants simply to win rather than asking them to win by multiple runs. San Francisco has not been great at home, but the Angels have been much worse on the road, and most of the Giants’ recent games have been decided by one run. I’m not calling for an easy win because Johnson’s deeper pitching numbers suggest he could perform better than his usual results. Still, at this price, Ray’s home and daytime success, San Francisco’s matchup with Johnson, and the fresher Giants bullpen are enough for me to back San Francisco to finish the job.

Giants ML-130
CONF
62%
MLB4:10 PM

Padres @ Marlins

Saturday afternoon under a closed roof in Miami, Eury Pérez is trying to end a long Marlins losing streak. Pérez gives Miami the better starting pitcher, but I’m taking San Diego to win outright because the full game favors the Padres more than the price suggests. San Diego’s offense has been scoring far more lately, while both teams have allowed runs at about the same rate. Ty France and Luis Rengifo are on fire. Miami has gotten strong production from Heriberto Hernández and Griffin Conine, but too much of its lineup remains cold. The Padres have also been much cleaner defensively. San Diego’s win Friday does not decide this game, but it matches how these teams have been playing. Miami has real advantages: Pérez has pitched better than San Diego’s updated starter, and the Marlins have been strong at home while the Padres have struggled on the road. That keeps this from being one of my strongest plays, but I do not want to lay a premium with a team on a long losing streak whose offense keeps wasting chances. I’ll take the hotter lineup and better defense at a price that pays more than I risk. Taking extra runs with San Diego costs too much, so my pick is the Padres to win outright.

Padres ML+120
CONF
58%
MLB4:10 PM

Blue Jays @ Red Sox

Fenway gets a Saturday afternoon matchup between Dylan Cease and Sonny Gray, with the teams heading in opposite directions. Cease’s pitching has been more convincing than Gray’s beneath the surface, so I’m not simply betting against Toronto’s starter. At close to an even price, I’m backing Boston’s stronger overall setup for the full game instead of asking Cease to overcome the team around him. Boston has been winning consistently, scoring plenty and giving up very little, while Toronto has been losing often, struggling to score and allowing too many runs. Boston has also made much better contact lately, while Toronto hasn’t hit the ball nearly as well and has needed its pitching to be almost perfect. Toronto does have the fresher late-inning pitchers, while two of Boston’s key relievers worked Friday, so I’m keeping my confidence in check. Still, Gray has put together a long run of strong starts, pitched very well at home, and Boston has played cleaner defense than Toronto. Taking Boston with an extra run costs too much for protection I don’t want. I’m simply betting the hotter, cleaner home team to win.

Red Sox ML-110
CONF
62%
MLB6:05 PM

Yankees @ Phillies

Saturday night in Philadelphia, the Yankees are trying to lock up the series while the Phillies look to end their losing streak. I’m backing New York simply to win rather than asking them to win by multiple runs, because I expect another close game shaped by pitching depth and late execution. Ryan Weathers has been shaky, so I’m not betting this out of blind confidence in him. The key is what happens after Tim Mayza’s short outing. Philadelphia will need most of the game from a pitching staff that lost Tanner Banks and made several moves that same day. New York’s relief pitchers are in better shape after Friday’s starter worked deep into the game and David Bednar was barely used. Jhoan Duran gives Philadelphia a strong late option, but getting a lead to him through the middle innings is the bigger challenge. New York has also prevented runs more consistently overall and has played better lately, while Philadelphia has allowed more runs during its recent slide. The Phillies have made much better contact over the past few games, which is why I want the protection of picking the Yankees just to win. I’m willing to pay the reasonable favorite’s price for New York’s steadier pitching setup from start to finish.

New York Yankees ML-126
CONF
60%
MLB6:10 PM

Guardians @ Rays

Under the dome at Tropicana Field, Cleveland starts Tanner Bibee against Nick Martinez in the second game after Tampa Bay controlled the opener. I’m backing the Rays to win at home, but Martinez’s strong results may not last, and Bibee has similar warning signs. With both starters carrying risk, I’m looking at the lineups and relief pitchers around them. The pitching matchups favor Tampa Bay. Bibee uses his sinker often, and Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda both handle that pitch well. The Rays are also starting six left-handed hitters, and most of Bibee’s home runs allowed have come against lefties. Martinez’s changeup has been effective, while José Ramírez and Travis Bazzana have struggled against that pitch. Overall, Tampa Bay has also hit and scored better than Cleveland. Tampa Bay has the cleaner setup late in the game. The Rays rested their main relief pitchers in the opener, while Cleveland used five relievers and then lost Shawn Armstrong to a calf injury. Tampa Bay has also been much stronger at home than Cleveland has been on the road. I want the Rays to win outright rather than pay extra for protection in a close loss.

Rays ML-124
CONF
68%
MLB6:40 PM

Cubs @ Pirates

Saturday night at PNC Park features Shota Imanaga against Paul Skenes, with Chicago looking to take the series. For me, the bet comes down to whether Skenes gives Pittsburgh enough of a pitching edge at home. I believe he does. Skenes has been better overall, especially at home and at night, while Imanaga has been less effective on the road and in night games. Both are pitching well lately. Imanaga has also been excellent against Pittsburgh, but the Pirates now have Esmerlyn Valdez, who has crushed left-handed pitching and shown big home-run power. In a ballpark that tends to limit scoring, I trust Skenes’ stronger overall outlook. Pittsburgh’s relief pitching is the concern. The Pirates have struggled to protect leads, and their relievers worked much harder than Chicago’s on Friday. The Cubs have also scored more lately, though Pittsburgh has been slightly better offensively across the full season. That is why I do not want the more expensive option of getting an extra run with Pittsburgh. I think Skenes gets the Pirates over the line, so my pick is Pittsburgh to win.

Pittsburgh Pirates ML-120
CONF
57%
MLB7:05 PM

Braves @ Orioles

Saturday night at Camden Yards, the Braves enter the second game of the series on a three-game winning streak, while Baltimore looks to answer Friday’s one-run loss. I’m taking the Orioles because the clearest edge is in the starting pitching, with Brandon Young pitching well and Bryce Elder struggling. Young has been much better in his recent starts, especially at home. Elder has been hit hard lately, including several home runs, and has struggled more on the road. Baltimore also has a right-handed-heavy lineup against a pitcher who has had trouble getting right-handed hitters out. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has added several home runs during a huge recent stretch, giving the middle of Baltimore’s order another hot bat. The numbers that estimate how pitchers should be performing do raise some concern, since they suggest Young has been a little fortunate and Elder has pitched better than his results. Atlanta also has the better season record and a rested Raisel Iglesias available. That limits my confidence, but Young has pitched deep into each of his last two starts, which could help Baltimore avoid leaning too much on recently used relievers. Taking Baltimore with an extra run is too expensive, while backing Atlanta to win by multiple runs asks for more than the evidence supports. I’m betting the better current starting pitcher carries Baltimore to a home win.

Baltimore Orioles ML-116
CONF
60%
MLB7:10 PM

Athletics @ Twins

The weather is hot at Target Field, with the wind blowing toward right field, and the Athletics already lead the series after Friday’s shutout. I’m backing Oakland as the underdog because Minnesota is being treated like the more reliable team despite a last-minute pitching change and plenty of uncertainty around both starters. Mike Paredes has allowed too many runners and too much hard contact. Brady Basso is the clear risk for me because he has not started this season and has struggled even more, but the quality of contact they are expected to allow is nearly identical. That makes Minnesota too expensive. I also like Nick Kurtz returning to the second spot in the order. He has crushed right-handed pitching and fastballs, while Paredes’ fastball has been hit hard. Oakland is also using five left-handed hitters and a switch hitter with the wind helping balls toward right field. Minnesota has the fresher relief pitchers, which keeps me from being overly confident. Its top two late-game options rested Friday, while three important Oakland relievers worked, though none was pushed hard. The Athletics also have the more appealing group of hot hitters in Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom, Tommy White and Jeff McNeil, and Oakland has scored a little more often than Minnesota lately. I see this game as much closer to even than the betting line suggests, so I’ll take the uncertainty and the better payout with Oakland to win.

Athletics ML+124
CONF
58%
MLB7:10 PM

Rockies @ Brewers

Saturday night at American Family Field, the roof is closed and Milwaukee is trying to respond after Colorado won the opener by three runs. I’m not paying a steep price just for a Brewers win. I’m taking Milwaukee to win by at least two because its edge in starting pitching, defense and available late-game relievers gives it a better chance to pull away. Robert Gasser has pitched better than his overall results suggest, while Ryan Feltner has been worse. Gasser allows much less hard contact, and Feltner has been hit hard in each of his last two starts. Gasser, meanwhile, gave up only one run in his latest outing. The left-right matchups are not perfect for either starter, but Milwaukee has several left-handed or switch hitters facing the pitcher with the shakier contact numbers. My concern is Milwaukee’s recent offense, which has been quieter than Colorado’s, so this is not one of my strongest plays. Still, Milwaukee has been clearly better at preventing runs this season, its key late relievers rested Friday, and Colorado had to use several of its main late-game arms. The Brewers have also been the better defensive team. Taking Colorado to stay within one run would mean trusting Feltner and the team around him to keep this close. I don’t, so I’m taking the better price on Milwaukee to win by at least two.

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5-106
CONF
64%
MLB7:10 PM

Astros @ White Sox

Saturday night at Rate Field, Houston comes in on a winning streak after taking the opener, while Chicago has a starter pitching extremely well. The Astros have the hotter lineup, but I’m backing the White Sox to win because Sean Burke is throwing strikes, Chicago can load the lineup with left-handed and switch-hitters against Hunter Brown, and the bullpen situation favors the home team. Burke has been dominant lately, piling up strikeouts while barely walking anyone and regularly pitching deep into games. Brown has struggled badly with walks and has not lasted as long. He has also had much more trouble with left-handed hitters, which matters against this Chicago lineup. Chicago is also in better shape late in the game. Houston used its bullpen heavily in the opener, while Chicago kept two of its best relief options fresh. Houston is still hitting the ball much harder, so I don’t want to ask Chicago to win by multiple runs. I only need the White Sox to win, and Chicago’s strong play at home, along with Houston’s weaker road form, backs up the starting-pitching and bullpen edges. I’ll pay the modest favorite price with the White Sox.

White Sox ML-120
CONF
66%
MLB7:15 PM

Dodgers @ Mets

Saturday night at Citi Field features a strong pitching matchup, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto facing Nolan McLean in clear weather and wind blowing in from right field. McLean’s recent form and the tough hitting conditions deserve respect, so I’m taking Los Angeles to win outright instead of needing the Dodgers to win by more than one run. Yamamoto has been better overall and especially strong on the road, while McLean has struggled more at Citi Field. McLean has pitched well in three straight starts, so I’m not overlooking him. Yamamoto is also equally effective against hitters from either side, which matters against this Mets lineup. New York’s offense has been struggling lately, Los Angeles has scored more consistently, and the Mets just lost Juan Soto to the injured list. I also trust Los Angeles more once the starters leave. The Dodgers have better overall pitching and defense, while the Mets have allowed more runners and made far more mistakes in the field. Los Angeles has won every meeting this season by a wide combined margin, though that only supports the pick. I see the Dodgers as better in the starting matchup, lineup, pitching depth, and defense, but McLean and the conditions make a close game possible. I’m taking the Dodgers to win outright.

Dodgers ML-154
CONF
70%
MLB7:15 PM

Reds @ Cardinals

Saturday night at Busch Stadium, the Reds come in on a winning streak while the Cardinals are trying to end a short skid. This looks like a toss-up, and I’m taking Cincinnati to win. Hunter Greene’s overall results look rough, but he has pitched better than they suggest and is piling up strikeouts. One ugly start against Baltimore caused most of the damage; he was dominant in one of his other outings and solid in the other. He has also handled left-handed hitters well, which matters against a Cardinals lineup loaded with them. Andre Pallante has been steadier overall, but left-handed hitters have had more success against him, and Cincinnati can stack that side of the plate with help from its switch hitters. Cincinnati has also been playing better lately and scoring far more often than St. Louis. Eugenio Suárez and Tyler Stephenson have both been on fire, and the Reds bullpen shut the Cardinals down to finish Friday’s win while the St. Louis bullpen gave up runs. I respect Pallante’s steadier season and the Cardinals’ better defense, so I only need the Reds to win, not win big. I’m backing Greene’s strikeout form and the hotter Cincinnati lineup.

Cincinnati Reds ML-104
CONF
58%
MLB7:15 PM

Mariners @ Rangers

Globe Life Field will have the roof closed, and these division rivals meet again after Texas won the opener by one run. At this near-even price, I’m backing the Rangers to win outright instead of paying a much steeper price for extra protection. Bryan Woo’s overall pitching has been better, but he has been far worse on the road than at home. Texas also has a left-handed-heavy lineup against a pitcher who has been more vulnerable to that side. More importantly, the Rangers are making much better contact lately. Joc Pederson, Wyatt Langford and Brandon Nimmo are all hitting well enough at the top of the order to pressure Woo early. Seattle still has real advantages. Nathan Eovaldi has struggled more with left-handed hitters, Woo’s overall results are better, and Seattle’s late-inning pitchers are better rested. J.P. Crawford is back, while Texas has to deal with losing Josh Jung. That keeps this from being one of my strongest plays, but I still would not make Seattle the favorite on the road. Texas has been better at home than Seattle has been away, has won most of the season meetings and has handled close games better. I see this as basically a toss-up, so I’ll take the home team at the better price.

Rangers ML-104
CONF
58%

Player props

21
MLB · Royals @ Tigers

Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez possesses a substantial head-to-head advantage against Detroit starter Casey Mize, batting .424 (14-for-33) with a home run across 33 career at-bats. Mize's pitching profile reveals a pronounced platoon split: while he stifles lefties (.192 AVG / .511 OPS), right-handed batters hit .248 with a .740 OPS against him.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+115
  • · Career vs Casey Mize: .424 AVG (14-for-33, 1 HR) in 33 ABs
  • · Mize platoon split: allows .248 AVG / .740 OPS to RHBs vs .192 AVG / .511 OPS to LHBs
  • · 3 HRs in L7 games with 2+ total bases in 3 of L5 games
MLB · Diamondbacks @ Nationals

CJ Abrams

1. THE PICK: CJ Abrams OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-118) 2. MATCHUP: Facing Mitch Bratt (LHP) 3. THE KEY FACTOR: Abrams is swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball right now, going 11-for-25 (.440 AVG) with 4 HR, 8 RBI, and a 1.481 OPS over his last 7 games, while posting a .381 AVG over his last 15.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-118
  • · 11-for-25 (.440 AVG) with 4 HR and 8 RBI over L7 games
  • · Facing Mitch Bratt (5.06 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, .405 opp wOBA)
  • · Bratt allows .308 AVG and .972 OPS to left-handed batters
MLB · Diamondbacks @ Nationals

Gabriel Moreno

1. THE PICK: Gabriel Moreno OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120) 2. MATCHUP: Facing Foster Griffin (LHP) 3. THE KEY FACTOR: Moreno is locked in at the plate, hitting .415 (17-for-41) with a 1.051 OPS over his last 15 games and .385 (10-for-26) over his last 7.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+120
  • · 17-for-41 (.415 AVG) with 1.051 OPS over L15 games
  • · .363 Away AVG with .947 OPS across 135 ABs
  • · .317 Day game AVG with .963 OPS across 82 ABs
MLB · Angels @ Giants

Bryce Eldridge

Bryce Eldridge (.266 AVG, 10 HR, .835 OPS) possesses a premier matchup against Angels starter Ryan Johnson. Johnson has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters in 2026, allowing a .267 batting average, an .828 OPS, and 5 home runs in just 86 at-bats to LHBs.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+131
  • · .828 OPS and 5 HR allowed by RHP Ryan Johnson to LHB (86 AB)
  • · .284 AVG / .857 OPS for Eldridge in day games (74 AB)
  • · .499 xSLG and .370 xwOBA season metrics
MLB · Padres @ Marlins

Eury Perez

1. THE PICK: Eury Perez OVER 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (-150) 2. MATCHUP: vs San Diego Padres (RHP vs SD lineup) 3. THE KEY FACTOR: Perez features elite swing-and-miss arsenal velocity (98.2 mph 4-Seam Fastball, 87.9 mph Slider) and enters this start averaging 10.2 K/9 on the season (104 strikeouts in 91.2 innings).

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts-150
  • · 104 Ks in 91.2 IP (10.2 K/9) across 17 starts this season
  • · Logged 9, 6, 8, and 8 strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 starts
  • · Break-even win probability required: 60.0% (-150 odds)
MLB · Blue Jays @ Red Sox

Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras has been the focal point of the Red Sox offense and enters Saturday on a blistering run at the plate. Over his last 7 games, Contreras is batting .421 (8-for-19) with a 1.244 OPS, and over his last 15 games he is hitting .391 (9-for-23).

OVER 0.5 Hits-150
  • · .421 AVG (8-for-19) with a 1.244 OPS over last 7 games
  • · .322 AVG (38-for-118) in day games with a 1.007 OPS
  • · .293 season AVG with 22 HR, 66 RBI, and a .945 OPS
MLB · Yankees @ Phillies

Trea Turner

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+115
  • · Break-even probability at +115 odds: 46.5%
  • · L7 form: 8-for-20 (.400 AVG), 3 HR, 6 RBI, 1.428 OPS
  • · Opposing SP Ryan Weathers: 10.1% barrel rate allowed, 17 HRs in 102.1 IP
MLB · Yankees @ Phillies

Alec Bohm

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+130
  • · Break-even probability at +130 odds: 43.5%
  • · L7 form: 9-for-25 (.360 AVG), 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1.000 OPS
  • · Recent Total Bases: Cleared 1.5 TB in 3 of his last 5 games (5, 4, and 5 TB)
MLB · Guardians @ Rays

Steven Kwan

Steven Kwan enters Saturday night in extraordinary contact form, batting .520 (13-for-25) over his last 7 days and .472 (17-for-36) across his last 10 games. Kwan has delivered multi-hit games in 6 of his last 10 appearances, including 3-hit performances against the Twins and 2-hit games against Minnesota and Miami. As Cleveland's leadoff hitter, Kwan is guaranteed maximum plate appearance volume (4 to 5 PAs).

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+141
  • · Batting .520 (13-for-25) over his last 7 days and .472 (17-for-36) over his last 10 games
  • · Recorded multi-hit games in 6 of his last 10 starts
  • · Facing Nick Martinez who has allowed 105 hits in 111.1 IP on the season
MLB · Braves @ Orioles

Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin is locked in at the plate and operating in the leadoff spot for Atlanta, maximizing his plate appearance volume (4-5 PA floor). Over his last 7 days, Baldwin is 11-for-28 (.393 AVG) with 4 HR, 5 RBI, and a 1.306 OPS, supported by elite Statcast metrics including a .524 xSLG and .386 xwOBA.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-104
  • · L7 days: .393 AVG, 4 HR, 1.306 OPS
  • · Statcast quality: .524 xSLG, .386 xwOBA
  • · Opposing SP Brandon Young: 7 of 9 HRs allowed to LHBs, 4.21 xERA vs 3.25 ERA
MLB · Braves @ Orioles

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Christian Encarnacion-Strand is in peak hitting form, slashing .400 AVG with 3 HR, 8 RBI, a .900 SLG, and a .726 xSLG over his last 7 days. Tonight he gets a premium matchup against Braves righty Bryce Elder, who possesses a severe split weakness against right-handed hitters.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+130
  • · L7 days: .400 AVG, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 1.329 OPS, .726 xSLG
  • · Opposing SP Bryce Elder vs RHB: .306 AVG, .841 OPS allowed
  • · Elder recent form: 24 ER in last 24.0 IP (9.00 ERA), 9 HR allowed
MLB · Athletics @ Twins

Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach enters tonight as Minnesota's hottest hitter, batting .400 (12-for-30) with 2 HR, 8 RBI, and a 1.155 OPS over his last 15 days, and .375 (6-for-16) over his last 7 days. Slotted in the leadoff spot tonight, Larnach is guaranteed maximum plate appearance volume (4 to 5 PAs).

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+130
  • · L15 stats: .400 AVG (12-for-30), 2 HR, 8 RBI, 1.155 OPS
  • · Batting 1st (leadoff) for Minnesota, securing 4-5 plate appearances
  • · Oakland starter Brady Basso allows .385 AVG and 1.154 OPS to LHB in Savant metrics
MLB · Rockies @ Brewers

Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman has been on a tear over his last 7 games, hitting .412 with a 1.700 OPS, 4 HR, and 7 RBI. In 2026, Goodman crushes left-handed pitching to the tune of a .292 AVG, .934 OPS, and 8 HR in 113 ABs, while boasting an impressive .970 OPS and 18 HR away from Coors Field.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+115
  • · .412 AVG / 1.700 OPS, 4 HR in last 7 games
  • · .292 AVG / .934 OPS with 8 HR vs LHP this season
  • · .284 AVG / .970 OPS with 18 HR on the road in 2026
MLB · Astros @ White Sox

Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez is operating at an elite level, batting .486 over his last 15 days with 5 home runs and 123 hits on the season. He matches up against White Sox starter Sean Burke, who exhibits a heavy fly-ball profile (0.63 GO/AO ratio) and has surrendered 9 of his 13 home runs this season to left-handed batters. Alvarez hits out of the 2-spot in Houston's lineup, ensuring 4 to 5 plate appearances against a righty who yields fly-ball contact. He has cleared 1.5 total bases in 4 of his last 5 games.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-105
  • · Season: .327 AVG, 34 HR, 1.084 OPS
  • · L15 Form: .486 AVG (18-37), 5 HR, 1.578 OPS
  • · Sean Burke vs LHB: 9 HR allowed in 255 ABs, 0.63 GO/AO
MLB · Dodgers @ Mets

Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman is locked in at the plate, posting back-to-back 3-hit games against the Mets and Phillies (6-for-8 with 3 doubles across his last 2 starts). Over his last 7 games, Freeman is hitting .409 (9-for-22) with a 1.007 OPS.

OVER 0.5 Hits-200
  • · Back-to-back 3-hit games (6-for-8 with 3 doubles over last 2 games)
  • · Batting .409 (9-for-22) with a 1.007 OPS over his last 7 games
  • · RHP Nolan McLean allows higher AVG (.219) and OPS (.672) to left-handed hitters
MLB · Reds @ Cardinals

Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz is one of the premier base-stealing threats in baseball with 18 stolen bases on the season, and he demonstrated that exact dynamic in Game 1 of this series yesterday by stealing 2 bases against St. Louis. De La Cruz enters in elite form, batting .317 (13-for-41) with a 1.038 OPS over his last 15 days.

OVER 0.5 Stolen Bases+200
  • · Season Stolen Bases: 18 SB in 83 games
  • · Recent On-Base Form: .317 AVG / 1.038 OPS over L15 days; 1-for-4 with 1 BB and 2 SB yesterday
  • · Opposing Starter Platoon / Matchup: vs Andre Pallante (.273 LHB AVG allowed, 3 career BB vs Elly)
MLB · Mariners @ Rangers

Nathan Eovaldi

Nathan Eovaldi has demonstrated dominant strikeout form over his recent stretch, accumulating 39 strikeouts across 28.0 innings in his last 5 starts. He has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in 4 of those 5 outings, posting totals of 9, 9, 10, and 9 Ks.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts-160
  • · 122 K in 115.1 IP on the season (1.06 K per inning)
  • · Cleared 5.5 strikeouts in 4 of last 5 starts (39 K in last 28.0 IP)
  • · Recorded 9, 9, 10, and 9 strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 outings
MLB · Mariners @ Rangers

Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo enters tonight's contest in outstanding form, batting .385 (15-for-39, 1.004 OPS) over his last 15 days and .375 (9-for-24) over his last 7 days. Batting cleanup as a left-handed hitter, Nimmo is positioned to exploit Mariners starter Bryan Woo's primary platoon split: Woo allows a .254 AVG, .716 OPS, and 8 HR to lefties (240 AB) compared to a .204 AVG and .523 OPS to righties. Batting behind Joc Pederson (.348 L15 AVG) and Wyatt Langford (.308 L15 AVG) provides consistent RBI targets, while Nimmo recorded 2 H+R+RBI yesterday and 7 on July 21. Key risk: Woo holds a 1.09 season WHIP and 3.45 xERA, meaning a dominant outing from Woo could suppress overall baserunners.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-110
  • · .385 AVG (15-for-39) over his last 15 days
  • · .375 AVG (9-for-24) over his last 7 days
  • · Mariners starter Bryan Woo allows .716 OPS and 8 HR to LHB vs .523 OPS to RHB
MLB HR · Braves @ Orioles

Matt Olson

1. THE PICK: Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350)

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+350
  • · Break-even probability required at +350 odds: 22.2%
  • · Season: 27 HR in 103 GP (26.2% game HR rate, exceeding 22.2% break-even)
  • · vs RHP: .929 OPS and 18 HR in 223 AB (1 HR per 12.39 AB)
MLB HR · Braves @ Orioles

Tyler O'Neill

1. THE PICK: Tyler O'Neill OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400)

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+400
  • · Break-even probability required at +400 odds: 20.0%
  • · L7 form: .429 AVG (6-14) with a 1.003 OPS, indicating sharp contact
  • · Bryce Elder surrenders .306 AVG, .841 OPS, and 8 HR in 157 AB to RHBs
MLB HR · Rockies @ Brewers

Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman Over 0.5 Home Runs (+350) clears its 22.2% break-even threshold based on his elite season long-ball production and favorable platoon split. On the season, Goodman has hit 31 HR in 359 ABs, representing an 8.6% HR rate per AB. Against left-handed pitching, his numbers jump to a .292 AVG, .934 OPS, and 8 HR in 106 ABs.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+350
  • · Break-even win probability at +350 odds is 22.2%
  • · 31 HR in 359 AB on the season (8.6% HR rate per AB)
  • · 0.934 OPS and 8 HR in 106 AB against LHP

Hub research

152

Graded results

36

Games

  • L

    Detroit Tigers ML -158

    MLB · 3-2

  • W

    Giants ML -130

    MLB · 2-9

  • L

    Red Sox ML -110

    MLB · 6-0

  • W

    Nationals ML -134

    MLB · 3-5

  • W

    Padres ML +120

    MLB · 7-2

  • W

    Rays ML -124

    MLB · 0-3

  • W

    New York Yankees ML -126

    MLB · 3-1

  • L

    Pittsburgh Pirates ML -120

    MLB · 11-0

  • L

    Cincinnati Reds ML -104

    MLB · 0-7

  • W

    Baltimore Orioles ML -116

    MLB · 2-3

  • L

    Athletics ML +124

    MLB · 0-2

  • W

    Rangers ML -104

    MLB · 1-7

  • W

    Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -106

    MLB · 5-8

  • L

    White Sox ML -120

    MLB · 4-1

  • W

    Dodgers ML -154

    MLB · 4-3

Props

  • L

    Alec Bohm · over

    Yankees @ Phillies · Actual 0

  • L

    Brandon Nimmo · over

    Mariners @ Rangers · Actual 1

  • L

    Bryce Eldridge · over

    Angels @ Giants · Actual 0

  • L

    Christian Encarnacion-Strand · over

    Braves @ Orioles · Actual 1

  • W

    CJ Abrams · over

    Diamondbacks @ Nationals · Actual 7

  • L

    Drake Baldwin · over

    Braves @ Orioles · Actual 1

  • L

    Elly De La Cruz · over

    Reds @ Cardinals · Actual 0

  • L

    Eury Perez · over

    Padres @ Marlins · Actual 2

  • W

    Freddie Freeman · over

    Dodgers @ Mets · Actual 3

  • L

    Gabriel Moreno · over

    Diamondbacks @ Nationals · Actual 1

  • L

    Hunter Goodman · over

    Rockies @ Brewers · Actual 0

  • L

    Hunter Goodman · over

    Rockies @ Brewers · Actual 1

  • L

    Matt Olson · over

    Braves @ Orioles · Actual 0

  • W

    Nathan Eovaldi · over

    Mariners @ Rangers · Actual 8

  • W

    Salvador Perez · over

    Royals @ Tigers · Actual 3

  • L

    Steven Kwan · over

    Guardians @ Rays · Actual 1

  • L

    Trea Turner · over

    Yankees @ Phillies · Actual 1

  • L

    Trevor Larnach · over

    Athletics @ Twins · Actual 1

  • L

    Tyler O'Neill · over

    Braves @ Orioles · Actual 0

  • L

    Willson Contreras · over

    Blue Jays @ Red Sox · Actual 0

  • L

    Yordan Alvarez · over

    Astros @ White Sox · Actual 0