Sports Picks Archive — Saturday, July 25, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Royals· -158

Saturday afternoon at Comerica Park, Detroit goes for its third straight win in this series with Casey Mize facing Michael Wacha. I’m backing the Tigers to finish the job, but I’m keeping it to the moneyline because these teams have already played two tight games in Detroit. The starting matchup is the center of this bet. Mize has a 2.79 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 3.14 xERA, while Wacha enters with a 3.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 4.16 xERA. The setting strengthens Detroit’s advantage: Mize has a 2.50 home ERA and 2.45 day ERA, compared with Wacha’s 4.23 road ERA and 5.04 day ERA. Kansas City’s lineup has six of nine starters hitting from the left side against a right-hander, and Mize has limited left-handed hitters to a .192 average and .511 OPS. Bobby Witt Jr. is also newly on the injured list, removing the hitter who was 7-for-17 with two home runs against Mize. Detroit is 29-23 at home, while Kansas City is 17-35 on the road. The Tigers have also produced a .435 xwOBA and 44.1% hard-hit rate over their last three games, compared with a .286 xwOBA and 33.8% hard-hit rate for the Royals. The late-game setup remains workable for Detroit: Kyle Finnegan and Tyler Holton did not pitch Friday, and Kenley Jansen required only eight pitches. I’m not laying the run line after Detroit won the first two games of this series 4-3 and 2-1. The moneyline is the ticket that matches the read: trust Mize’s matchup and make Detroit prove only that it can win.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Diamondbacks· -134

Saturday afternoon at Nationals Park, the Diamondbacks arrive riding four straight while Washington hands the ball to its most reliable starter. Warm air and a light breeze out to left set the stage, but this ticket comes down to whether Arizona’s current surge can overcome the clearest starting-pitching gap in this matchup. My answer is no, and I’m backing Washington to win outright. Foster Griffin is 11-2 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.03 WHIP through 117.1 innings. Mitch Bratt enters his fourth MLB start with a 5.06 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over 10.2 innings, plus a strict 70–80 pitch limit. Even the expected numbers maintain meaningful separation: Griffin has a 3.88 xERA, compared with Bratt’s 5.3. Bratt throws his four-seam fastball 42.4% of the time, and that pitch has allowed a .430 xwOBA; Griffin’s four-seamer has allowed a .169 xwOBA. Washington also has measured production against that pitch, including a .455 xwOBA from James Wood and a .380 batting average from CJ Abrams. This is the matchup edge I trust most. Arizona deserves respect. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 over their last 10 and have averaged 7.2 runs over their last five, while Washington is 4-6 and has averaged 5.8. Arizona also owns the much cleaner defense, with a .990 fielding percentage and 37 errors against Washington’s .979 and 80. Those concerns—and Arizona’s stronger relief depth—are why I want the moneyline rather than Washington -1.5. My read is that Griffin gives the Nationals enough length to limit their late-inning exposure, while Washington gets the better opportunity against Bratt and the earlier portion of Arizona’s bullpen. At -134, I’m asking the superior starter’s team only to win, not to create a two-run margin.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Angels· -130

The sun is out at Oracle Park, the wind is carrying toward center, and these clubs turn around quickly after San Francisco’s 7-6 victory in the opener. The starting-pitcher gap is not quite as wide as Robbie Ray’s 3.33 ERA and Ryan Johnson’s 6.10 ERA suggest—their xERAs are identical at 4.61—but Ray’s situational results break the tie for me. He owns a 2.44 home ERA and a 2.87 day-game ERA, while Johnson has posted a 7.36 road ERA and a 5.25 day-game ERA. The handedness and pitch data reinforce that advantage. Eight Angels batters are hitting right-handed against Ray, who has held righties to a .208 average and .691 OPS. Johnson does not have the same escape route: lefties have produced an .828 OPS against him and righties an .814 OPS. San Francisco sends five left-handed hitters, and Johnson’s sinker has allowed a .493 xwOBA. Luis Arraez has hit .302 against sinkers and Rafael Devers .340. Behind the starters, the Giants used four relievers for 62 pitches last night, while the Angels required six relievers and 99 pitches. That availability difference matters when Johnson has not worked beyond five innings in either of his last two starts. I’m taking the moneyline rather than asking San Francisco to cover -1.5. The Giants are only 23-25 at home, but that still compares favorably with the Angels’ 17-35 road record, and four of San Francisco’s last five games were decided by one run. This is not a runaway conviction because the identical xERAs leave room for Johnson to outperform his surface numbers. At -130, however, Ray’s home-and-day profile, the lineup’s measured matchup with Johnson and San Francisco’s bullpen availability give me enough to back the Giants simply to finish the job.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Marlins· +120

Saturday afternoon baseball under a closed roof in Miami, with Eury Pérez trying to stop a Marlins skid that has reached 10 games. Pérez gives Miami the starting-pitching advantage, but I’m taking San Diego at plus money because the complete game—not just the opening matchup—leans more toward the Padres than this price suggests. San Diego has averaged 6.4 runs over its last 10 games, compared with 2.5 for Miami, while both clubs allowed 4.7 runs per game over that stretch. Ty France is batting .395 with six home runs and a 1.359 OPS over the last 15 days, while Luis Rengifo is at .435 with a 1.176 OPS. Miami has received strong production from Heriberto Hernández and Griffin Conine, but too much of the lineup remains cold. The Padres also own the cleaner defensive profile: 41 errors and a .989 fielding percentage against Miami’s 68 errors and .981 mark. Friday’s 4-2 San Diego victory does not decide this game, but it fits the broader current-form picture. There are legitimate reasons Miami is favored. Pérez carries a 3.53 ERA against the 4.38 mark of San Diego’s updated starter, and the Marlins are 31-21 at home while the Padres are 24-29 away. Those advantages keep this from being a high-confidence play, but Miami at -142 requires me to pay a premium for a team that has lost 10 straight and whose offense has repeatedly failed to convert opportunities. At +120, I want the hotter lineup and better defense to win outright. The Padres +1.5 at -192 is too expensive for that opinion; the moneyline is the ticket that properly pays the risk.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Blue Jays· -110

Fenway gets a Saturday matinee with Dylan Cease opposite Sonny Gray and two clubs arriving in sharply different form. Cease owns the cleaner underlying pitching profile—2.67 ERA and 2.93 xERA against Gray’s 2.48 ERA and 3.63 xERA—so this is no casual fade of Toronto’s starter. But at a near-even price, I’m backing Boston’s complete nine-inning setup rather than asking Cease to overcome everything around him. Boston’s current run is supported by more than the win column. The Red Sox are 9-1 over their last 10 while scoring 5.4 R/G and allowing 2.9; Toronto is 2-8 while scoring 2.8 R/G and allowing 5.8. Over the last three games, Boston has also produced a .322 xwOBA and 40.8% hard-hit rate, compared with Toronto’s .282 xwOBA and 29.2% hard-hit rate. That tells me Boston’s better recent production has come with better contact, while Toronto has consistently needed its pitching to leave very little room for error. Toronto does hold the late-inning rest advantage: Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers threw 0 pitches Friday, while Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock both worked for Boston. That keeps my confidence measured. Still, Gray brings a nine-game quality start streak and a 2.10 home ERA, and the Red Sox support him with a .987 fielding percentage and 46 errors compared with Toronto’s .981 and 69. Boston +1.5 at -200 costs too much for protection I don’t want. The moneyline only asks the hotter, cleaner home side to win, and Red Sox ML -110 is the ticket.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Phillies· -126

Saturday night in Philadelphia, the Yankees look to secure the series while the Phillies try to stop a three-game slide. I’m backing New York on the moneyline rather than laying 1.5 runs because my read points toward another competitive game decided by pitching structure and late-inning execution. Ryan Weathers carries real risk with a 4.40 ERA, 4.55 xERA and 5.58 night ERA, so this is not a bet built on blind confidence in the starter. The deciding issue is what happens after Tim Mayza exits. Mayza owns a 4.00 ERA and 3.48 xERA, but he has not exceeded two innings in an appearance this season. That leaves Philadelphia needing most of the game from a staff that lost Tanner Banks and made multiple same-day pitching moves. New York’s relief group is better positioned after its starter completed 7.1 innings Friday and David Bednar needed only nine pitches. Philadelphia has a strong late option in Jhoan Duran, but getting a lead to him through the middle innings is the harder part of this setup. The larger run-prevention profile also favors New York. The Yankees have a 3.35 team ERA and 1.18 WHIP, compared with Philadelphia’s 4.23 and 1.31. Over the last 10 games, New York is 7-3 while allowing 2.9 runs per game; Philadelphia is 4-6 while allowing 4.2. The Phillies’ superior recent contact quality—.382 expected wOBA over the last three games against New York’s .299—is why I want the protection of the moneyline rather than the run line. At -126, I’ll pay the manageable favorite’s price for the Yankees’ steadier nine-inning pitching structure.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Guardians· -124

Under the dome at Tropicana Field, Cleveland sends Tanner Bibee against Nick Martinez in Game 2 after Tampa Bay controlled the series opener. I’m laying the modest home price with the Rays, but I’m not treating Martinez’s 2.59 ERA as untouchable: his 4.61 xERA signals regression risk, just as Bibee’s 4.48 xERA runs above his 3.86 ERA. Both starters carry warning signs, so the decision comes down to which lineup and bullpen are better positioned around them. The pitch profiles give Tampa Bay the clearer matchup. Bibee throws his sinker 24% of the time; Junior Caminero has a .410 xwOBA against sinkers, while Jonathan Aranda has hit .390 against them. Tampa Bay is also starting six left-handed hitters, and 14 of Bibee’s 20 home runs allowed have come against lefties. Martinez’s changeup, used 27.5% of the time with a 34.3% whiff rate and .268 xwOBA allowed, meets a Cleveland order in which José Ramírez has a .297 xwOBA and Travis Bazzana a .187 xwOBA against that pitch. That matchup fits a Rays offense batting .261 with a .739 OPS and 4.6 runs per game better than Cleveland’s .232 average, .687 OPS and 4.0 runs per game. The late innings complete the case. Tampa Bay kept its primary high-leverage arms out of Friday’s game, while Cleveland used five relievers and then placed Shawn Armstrong on the injured list with a fresh calf strain. The Rays’ 36-15 home record and Cleveland’s 27-25 road mark do not decide tonight, but they support rather than contradict the matchup read. I want the Rays to win outright without paying -196 for the +1.5 insurance. At -124, Tampa Bay’s lineup fit, home performance and cleaner bullpen setup make the moneyline the right ticket.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cubs· -120

Saturday night at PNC Park brings a marquee pitching duel, with Shota Imanaga facing Paul Skenes as Chicago tries to secure the series. Under the lights, this wager comes down to whether Skenes’ starting-pitcher advantage is worth the modest home price. For me, it is. Skenes owns a 3.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 2.75 xERA, compared with Imanaga’s 3.91 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 3.74 xERA. The setting strengthens that edge: Skenes has a 3.04 home ERA and 2.61 night ERA, while Imanaga has a 3.68 road ERA and 4.21 night ERA. Both starters enter in good form—Skenes just delivered seven innings of one-run ball, while Imanaga threw seven scoreless. I respect Imanaga’s .118 batting average allowed across five games against Pittsburgh, but this Pirates lineup now includes Esmerlyn Valdez, who has a 1.405 OPS and seven home runs against left-handed pitching. With PNC Park’s 0.94 run factor, I trust the starter carrying the stronger expected profile. The bullpen is the danger in this ticket, and I’m not hiding it. Pittsburgh has 18 blown saves, and its four relievers combined for 75 pitches Friday; Chicago used three relievers for 27. The Cubs have also averaged 6.2 runs over their last five games against Pittsburgh’s 3.8, although the season-long offensive comparison favors the Pirates slightly: a .260 average, .760 OPS and 5.2 runs per game versus Chicago’s .244, .748 and 5.1. That tension is why I’m not paying -205 for Pittsburgh’s +1.5. My read says the superior starter gets Pittsburgh across the finish line, so I want the cleaner price and the outright result: Pirates moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Braves· -116

Saturday night at Camden Yards, the Braves bring a three-game winning streak into the second game of this series while Baltimore tries to answer Friday’s 7-6 loss. I’m taking the Orioles because tonight’s clearest edge sits at the front of the game, where Brandon Young’s current form and Bryce Elder’s current form are moving in opposite directions. Young has a 3.41 ERA over his last five starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 29 innings. Elder has a 9.00 ERA over that span, allowing 24 earned runs in 24 innings, and he has surrendered seven home runs across his last three outings. The venue splits support the same read: Young owns a 3.04 home ERA, while Elder has a 5.31 road ERA. Baltimore also starts five right-handed batters against a pitcher allowing a .306 average and .841 OPS to righties. Christian Encarnacion-Strand enters with three home runs and a 1.329 OPS over the last seven days, giving the middle of Baltimore’s order another measurable piece of current form. I’m not ignoring the warning in the expected numbers. Young’s 4.21 xERA is higher than his 3.25 ERA, while Elder’s 3.85 xERA is better than his 4.06 ERA. Atlanta also has the stronger full-season record and a rested Raisel Iglesias available behind its starter. That keeps my confidence controlled, but Young has completed seven innings in each of his last two starts, creating a route for Baltimore to limit exposure to its recently used relievers. The Orioles’ +1.5 protection costs -196, which is too expensive for this read, while Atlanta -1.5 requires a margin I do not see enough evidence to demand. At -116, I’m betting the better current starting-pitcher matchup carries Baltimore to an outright home win.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Twins· +124

The heat is up at Target Field, the wind is blowing out to right, and the Athletics enter with a 1-0 series lead after Friday’s shutout. I’m backing the Athletics at +124 because Minnesota is priced like the more dependable side despite a day-of rotation change and a starting-pitcher matchup carrying substantial uncertainty in both directions. Mike Paredes brings a 4.72 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 5.23 xERA and 50.8% hard-hit rate allowed. Brady Basso is the obvious risk to this ticket: he has no 2026 starts, a 6.48 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 5.34 xERA and 53.1% hard-hit rate allowed. But their expected contact results are nearly level, with Paredes allowing a .349 xwOBA and Basso a .352 mark. That does not support laying a sizable price with Minnesota. The matchup that moves me is Nick Kurtz returning to bat second: he has a .969 OPS against right-handed pitching and a .449 xwOBA against four-seam fastballs, while Paredes’ four-seamer has allowed a .409 xwOBA. Oakland also starts five left-handed hitters plus one switch hitter with the wind going toward right field. Minnesota owns the bullpen-rest advantage, and that keeps my confidence measured. Its top two late-inning options did not pitch Friday, while three key Oakland relievers each threw 10-12 pitches. Those Oakland workloads were still controlled, however, and the Athletics have the more appealing recent offensive core. Over the last 15 days, Jacob Wilson has a .991 OPS, Tyler Soderstrom a .954 OPS, Tommy White an .835 OPS and Jeff McNeil an .855 OPS. Oakland has averaged 4.0 runs over its last 10 games against Minnesota’s 3.6. I make this contest much closer to even than the moneyline suggests, so I’ll accept the starting-pitcher volatility and take the better payout on the Athletics to win outright.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rockies· -106

Saturday night at American Family Field, the roof is closed and Milwaukee is looking to answer after Colorado took the opener 5-2. I’m not laying -230 merely for a home win; Brewers -1.5 at -106 is the ticket because Milwaukee’s advantages are concentrated in areas that can create separation: starting contact profile, defense and late-inning availability. Robert Gasser’s 4.91 ERA comes with a much better 3.85 xERA, while Ryan Feltner’s 5.48 ERA is paired with a 5.85 xERA. Gasser has also allowed a 30.9% hard-hit rate and 7.2% barrel rate, compared with Feltner’s 40.8% and 11.2%. Feltner enters after surrendering 12 earned runs in 6.2 innings across his last two starts; Gasser allowed one earned run in five innings his last time out. The platoon matchup is not one-way—Feltner has allowed an .826 OPS to left-handed hitters, while Gasser has allowed a .795 OPS to right-handed hitters—but Milwaukee’s six left-handed or switch hitters get the shakier overall contact profile. The concern is current offense: Milwaukee has averaged 3.4 runs over its last five games, while Colorado has averaged 4.4. That keeps this below my highest-confidence tier. Still, the late-game structure completes the run-line case. Milwaukee’s season pitching baseline is a 3.45 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, compared with Colorado’s 5.47 and 1.51, and Milwaukee’s principal high-leverage options did not pitch Friday while Colorado used multiple back-end arms. The Brewers have also committed 42 errors with a .988 fielding percentage; the Rockies have 65 errors with a .982 percentage. Taking Colorado +1.5 would require me to trust Feltner and that supporting structure to keep this tight. That is not my read, so I’m taking the better price and laying the run and a half.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Astros· -120

Saturday night at Rate Field, Houston brings a four-game winning streak into Game 2 after taking the opener 9-5, while Chicago counters with a starter in excellent current form. The Astros have the hotter lineup, but the White Sox ML -120 is my ticket because Sean Burke’s command, Chicago’s handedness against Hunter Brown, and the bullpen setup give the home side the more dependable path over nine innings. Burke has delivered a 1.45 ERA with 39 strikeouts and five walks across 31.0 innings in his last five starts. Brown has a 6.08 ERA with 19 strikeouts and 19 walks over 23.2 innings during the corresponding stretch, including 15 walks in his last 14.2 innings. Burke has completed at least six innings in four of his last five outings; Brown has reached six innings only once in his last three. Chicago’s lineup also contains five left-handed hitters and two switch-hitters, making Brown’s .759 OPS allowed to left-handed batters—compared with .615 against right-handed batters—a meaningful part of this matchup. Chicago also has the cleaner late-game setup. Houston needed eight innings from its relief corps Friday, and two of its long-relief options combined for 76 pitches; Chicago held two of its most efficient bullpen options out of the opener. Houston’s recent .316 expected wOBA and 42.0% hard-hit rate, compared with Chicago’s .270 and 23.6%, are why I want no part of laying the run line. The Astros’ offense is dangerous enough to keep this tight. But the moneyline only asks Chicago to win, and its 31-18 home record against Houston’s 25-27 road mark supports the stronger starting-pitching and bullpen position. I’ll pay the modest favorite price with the White Sox.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mets· -154

Saturday night at Citi Field brings a serious pitching matchup, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto opposing Nolan McLean under clear skies and a wind blowing in from right field. McLean’s current form and the run-suppressing conditions demand respect, which is precisely why I want Los Angeles on the moneyline rather than asking the Dodgers to cover -1.5. Yamamoto carries a 2.78 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, compared with McLean’s 3.34 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. McLean is coming off three consecutive six-inning starts in which he allowed zero, zero and two earned runs, so this is not a spot to dismiss the home starter. The difference is that Yamamoto has traveled exceptionally well with a 2.24 road ERA, while McLean owns a 4.47 ERA at Citi Field. Yamamoto has also allowed nearly identical production to left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters, a valuable trait against a Mets lineup featuring hitters from both sides. New York has scored only 2.7 runs per game over its last 10, while Los Angeles has averaged 4.1, and the Mets have now lost Juan Soto’s .947 OPS to a same-day injured-list move. Los Angeles gives me more ways to win after the starters leave. The Dodgers have a 3.53 staff ERA and 1.13 WHIP, while the Mets sit at 4.23 and 1.31. The defensive gap is just as clear: Los Angeles owns a .990 fielding percentage with 37 errors, compared with New York’s .981 mark and 69 errors. The Dodgers have taken all four meetings this season by a combined 18-5, though that history is supporting evidence rather than the reason for the wager. My read is that Los Angeles has the better starter, lineup, pitching depth and defense, but McLean and the conditions create enough one-run risk to avoid the run line. Dodgers moneyline is the proper ticket.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cardinals· -104

Saturday night baseball settles into Busch Stadium, with the Reds carrying a three-game winning streak and the Cardinals trying to stop a two-game slide. The board calls this close to even, and I’m taking Cincinnati to win outright at -104. Hunter Greene’s 6.06 ERA is loud, but the details make him more attractive than that headline number. His xERA is 4.39, and he has recorded 26 strikeouts in 16.1 innings across three starts. The eight-earned-run outing against Baltimore accounts for most of the damage; his other two starts were seven scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts and six innings with three earned runs and seven strikeouts. Greene has also held left-handed hitters to a .211 average and .628 OPS, which matters against a Cardinals lineup starting five left-handed batters. Andre Pallante has the steadier overall résumé with a 4.02 ERA and 3.71 xERA, but left-handed hitters have produced a .273 average and .743 OPS against him. Cincinnati can bring four batters to the left side when its two switch hitters are included. The immediate form points the same way. Cincinnati is 6-4 over its last 10 and has averaged 4.4 runs over its last five, while St. Louis is 3-7 and has averaged 2.4. Eugenio Suárez has five home runs and a 1.098 OPS over the last 15 days, while Tyler Stephenson owns a 1.097 OPS over that span. Cincinnati’s bullpen then supplied four scoreless innings in Friday’s victory, compared with three earned runs allowed by the St. Louis bullpen. I respect Pallante’s steadier season and the Cardinals’ superior defense, so I’m not asking Cincinnati to cover -1.5. The moneyline fits the read: back Greene’s strikeout form and the hotter lineup, and require only an outright Reds win.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Mariners· -104

Globe Life Field is buttoned up under a closed roof, and these AL West rivals meet again after Texas took the opener 5-4. At this price, I’m backing the Rangers to win outright rather than paying -192 for the protection of Texas +1.5. Bryan Woo has the better underlying pitching numbers, including a 3.45 xERA and 1.09 WHIP, but his location split is the hinge of this bet. His road ERA is 6.28, compared with 2.20 at home, and Texas sends six left-handed hitters against a pitcher allowing a .716 OPS to that side. More importantly, the Rangers are producing the stronger contact right now: over their last three games, they have a .392 xwOBA and 37.7% hard-hit rate, while Seattle is at .298 and 27.2%. Joc Pederson has posted a 1.226 OPS over the last 15 days, Wyatt Langford is at .998 and Brandon Nimmo is at 1.004. That is enough current production at the top to challenge Woo before Texas reaches the softer portion of its order. Seattle has legitimate counters. Nathan Eovaldi has allowed a .783 OPS to left-handed hitters, Woo owns the better xERA, and Seattle enters with the cleaner late-inning availability. J.P. Crawford is also back while Texas must absorb the [NEW] loss of Josh Jung. Those factors keep this from being a high-confidence play, but they do not justify making Seattle the road favorite in my book. Texas is 26-24 at home while Seattle is 21-30 away, and the Rangers have taken six of nine meetings this season. Texas has also gone 19-10 in one-run games compared with Seattle’s 14-17. Those records are not guarantees, but they reinforce why the moneyline is the proper ticket. In what I price as essentially a coin flip, I’ll take the home side at -104.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

SALVADOR PEREZH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +115

Salvador Perez possesses a substantial head-to-head advantage against Detroit starter Casey Mize, batting .424 (14-for-33) with a home run across 33 career at-bats. Mize's pitching profile reveals a pronounced platoon split: while he stifles lefties (.192 AVG / .511 OPS), right-handed batters hit .248 with a .740 OPS against him. Batting clean-up as the designated hitter, Perez provides Kansas City's primary run-producing threat. Over his last 7 games, 3 of Perez's 5 hits have been home runs, providing instant 2+ H+R+RBI production on a single swing. At +115 odds (break-even requirement of 46.5%), Perez's track record against Mize and recent extra-base impact make this over a strong value.

GARY'S PICK

CJ ABRAMSH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBNationals· -118

1. THE PICK: CJ Abrams OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-118) 2. MATCHUP: Facing Mitch Bratt (LHP) 3. THE KEY FACTOR: Abrams is swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball right now, going 11-for-25 (.440 AVG) with 4 HR, 8 RBI, and a 1.481 OPS over his last 7 games, while posting a .381 AVG over his last 15. He has generated at least 3 combined Hits+Runs+RBIs in four consecutive starts (3 yesterday, 5 on July 22, 8 on July 21, and 4 on July 20). Facing Diamondbacks starter Mitch Bratt, Abrams gets an ideal matchup against a young pitcher with a 5.06 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and .405 opponent wOBA who has allowed a .308 AVG and .972 OPS to left-handed hitters in his brief major league outings. 4. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Nationals Park features a neutral 1.01 park factor with 82°F game temperature and a 6 mph wind blowing out toward left field. 5. VOLUME FLOOR: Batting cleanup (4th) in Washington's 5.5 R/G offense at home guarantees 4 to 5 plate appearances in prime run-producing scenarios. 6. THE RISK: Bratt is pulled early after 3 innings, and Arizona's right-handed bullpen arms manage to quiet Washington's middle of the order.

GARY'S PICK

GABRIEL MORENOTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBDiamondbacks· +120

1. THE PICK: Gabriel Moreno OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120) 2. MATCHUP: Facing Foster Griffin (LHP) 3. THE KEY FACTOR: Moreno is locked in at the plate, hitting .415 (17-for-41) with a 1.051 OPS over his last 15 games and .385 (10-for-26) over his last 7. His situational splits favor him today: he hits .363 with a .947 OPS on the road and .317 with a .963 OPS in day games. Despite facing All-Star left-hander Foster Griffin, Moreno has proven effective against lefties with a .284 AVG and .811 OPS on the season. His quality of contact metrics (.371 wOBA / .379 xwOBA) demonstrate that his recent production is driven by elite contact quality, giving him great value at plus odds (+120) which requires only a 45.5% win rate to break even. 4. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Nationals Park features a neutral 1.01 park factor with 82°F game temperature and a 6 mph wind blowing out toward left field. 5. VOLUME FLOOR: Slotted 3rd in Arizona's lineup as the primary designated hitter, securing 4+ expected plate appearances. 6. THE RISK: Foster Griffin pitches 7 scoreless innings of soft contact, keeping Moreno to a single or zero-hit afternoon.

GARY'S PICK

BRYCE ELDRIDGETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +131

Bryce Eldridge (.266 AVG, 10 HR, .835 OPS) possesses a premier matchup against Angels starter Ryan Johnson. Johnson has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters in 2026, allowing a .267 batting average, an .828 OPS, and 5 home runs in just 86 at-bats to LHBs. Eldridge thrives in daytime conditions, batting .284 with an .857 OPS in day games. Batting 3rd in the Giants order directly behind Luis Arraez (.324 AVG), Eldridge will get quality RBI and extra-base hit opportunities against Johnson's 92.1 mph sinker and 89.6 mph cutter. Additionally, the Angels bullpen is heavily taxed after deploying six relievers (99 pitches) yesterday, ensuring Eldridge faces vulnerable arms late. The main risk is Oracle Park's deep outfield suppressing fly balls, but Eldridge's .499 xSLG provides the power profile needed to clear 1.5 total bases.

GARY'S PICK

EURY PEREZK'S OVER 5.5

MLBMarlins· -150

1. THE PICK: Eury Perez OVER 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (-150) 2. MATCHUP: vs San Diego Padres (RHP vs SD lineup) 3. THE KEY FACTOR: Perez features elite swing-and-miss arsenal velocity (98.2 mph 4-Seam Fastball, 87.9 mph Slider) and enters this start averaging 10.2 K/9 on the season (104 strikeouts in 91.2 innings). He has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 outings, registering 9 Ks (@ MIL on July 19), 6 Ks (vs CLE on July 11), 8 Ks (@ ATH on July 5), and 8 Ks (on June 28). San Diego's lineup features swing-and-miss volatility in the middle and lower order, providing Perez clean target areas to accumulate punchouts. 4. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: loanDepot park (Miami, FL) — Roof closed, 72°F, 0 mph wind. The climate-controlled indoor environment eliminates wind variables and provides a stable pitchers' background. 5. VOLUME FLOOR: With his pitcher outs line set at 16.5 (5.1 innings), Perez is projected to face 20–25 batters. Given his 10.2 K/9 strikeout rate, 5.0+ innings provides the necessary plate appearance volume to comfortably hit 6 strikeouts. 6. THE RISK: San Diego's upper lineup works deep, full-count at-bats to inflate Perez's pitch count early, forcing an exit before he completes 5 innings.

GARY'S PICK

WILLSON CONTRERASHITS OVER 0.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -150

Willson Contreras has been the focal point of the Red Sox offense and enters Saturday on a blistering run at the plate. Over his last 7 games, Contreras is batting .421 (8-for-19) with a 1.244 OPS, and over his last 15 games he is hitting .391 (9-for-23). He turns up his production even further during day games, posting a .322 batting average (38-for-118) with a 1.007 OPS across 118 daytime at-bats this season. Game logs show Contreras has logged at least one hit in 8 of his last 10 games, including multi-hit efforts in 3 of his last 5 outings. Occupying the cleanup spot in Boston's order guarantees him 4+ plate appearances, giving him ample opportunity to notch a hit even against a tough starting pitcher in Dylan Cease.

GARY'S PICK

TREA TURNERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +115

GARY'S PICK

ALEC BOHMTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +130

GARY'S PICK

STEVEN KWANTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +141

Steven Kwan enters Saturday night in extraordinary contact form, batting .520 (13-for-25) over his last 7 days and .472 (17-for-36) across his last 10 games. Kwan has delivered multi-hit games in 6 of his last 10 appearances, including 3-hit performances against the Twins and 2-hit games against Minnesota and Miami. As Cleveland's leadoff hitter, Kwan is guaranteed maximum plate appearance volume (4 to 5 PAs). Tonight he matches up against Nick Martinez, a pitch-to-contact right-hander who has surrendered 105 hits in 111.1 innings pitched while permitting a .260 batting average to righties and .239 to lefties. Martinez's pitch mix relies on sinkers and four-seamers in the 92-93 mph range, aligning ideally with Kwan's elite bat-to-ball skills and low strikeout tendencies. Given Kwan's current high-contact streak and Martinez's high hit allowance, Kwan has multiple avenues to cash this line through a multi-hit effort or extra-base contact. The specific risk is Kwan recording only a single single across 4 or 5 plate appearances, but his 60% multi-hit rate over his last 10 games provides strong backing for the over.

GARY'S PICK

DRAKE BALDWINTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -104

Drake Baldwin is locked in at the plate and operating in the leadoff spot for Atlanta, maximizing his plate appearance volume (4-5 PA floor). Over his last 7 days, Baldwin is 11-for-28 (.393 AVG) with 4 HR, 5 RBI, and a 1.306 OPS, supported by elite Statcast metrics including a .524 xSLG and .386 xwOBA. Tonight he faces Baltimore starter Brandon Young, who exhibits a sharp split vulnerability against left-handed hitters—allowing 7 of his 9 home runs on the season to LHBs with a .715 OPS allowed (compared to just 2 HR to RHBs). Young's 4.21 xERA relative to his 3.25 ERA signals regression risk. Risk: Camden Yards' deep left field can swallow fly balls if pulled, but Baldwin's recent extra-base power and leadoff volume provide a strong edge for Over 1.5 Total Bases.

GARY'S PICK

CHRISTIAN ENCARNACION-STRANDTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +130

Christian Encarnacion-Strand is in peak hitting form, slashing .400 AVG with 3 HR, 8 RBI, a .900 SLG, and a .726 xSLG over his last 7 days. Tonight he gets a premium matchup against Braves righty Bryce Elder, who possesses a severe split weakness against right-handed hitters. On the season, RHBs are hitting .306 with an .841 OPS and 8 HR in 157 ABs against Elder (compared to .205 AVG and .620 OPS against LHBs). Furthermore, Elder has struggled in his last 5 starts, allowing 24 ER across 24.0 IP (9.00 ERA) with 9 home runs surrendered. Encarnacion-Strand batting 5th in Baltimore's order is in prime position to clear 1.5 total bases via extra-base contact or multiple hits. Risk: Ground-ball contact if Elder locates his sinker/slider down, but Elder's 9.00 recent ERA and .841 OPS allowed to RHBs make the Over highly appealing.

GARY'S PICK

TREVOR LARNACHTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +130

Trevor Larnach enters tonight as Minnesota's hottest hitter, batting .400 (12-for-30) with 2 HR, 8 RBI, and a 1.155 OPS over his last 15 days, and .375 (6-for-16) over his last 7 days. Slotted in the leadoff spot tonight, Larnach is guaranteed maximum plate appearance volume (4 to 5 PAs). He matches up against Oakland starter Brady Basso, whose Savant platoon metrics against left-handed batters are severely vulnerable: a .385 opponent AVG, 1.154 OPS allowed, 53.1% hard-hit rate, and 12.5% barrel rate. Target Field's environmental setup — 94°F temperature at first pitch with a 6 mph wind blowing out to right field — directly favors Larnach's left-handed pull power. Specific risk: Basso or Oakland relievers could work around Larnach with soft offspeed pitches outside, leaving him with a single-base hit or walk (e.g. 1-for-3 with a walk) that stays under 1.5 total bases.

GARY'S PICK

HUNTER GOODMANTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +115

Hunter Goodman has been on a tear over his last 7 games, hitting .412 with a 1.700 OPS, 4 HR, and 7 RBI. In 2026, Goodman crushes left-handed pitching to the tune of a .292 AVG, .934 OPS, and 8 HR in 113 ABs, while boasting an impressive .970 OPS and 18 HR away from Coors Field. Tonight he faces left-hander Robert Gasser, who yields a .255 AVG and 9 HR to right-handed batters compared to a .213 AVG to lefties. Batting cleanup as the Designated Hitter, Goodman gets 4 to 5 plate encounters with no defensive substitution risk. A double, home run, or multi-hit game cashes this prop. The primary risk is Gasser or the Milwaukee bullpen issuing walks (Goodman has 3 BB in his last 2 games), which do not count toward total bases.

GARY'S PICK

YORDAN ALVAREZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBAstros· -105

Yordan Alvarez is operating at an elite level, batting .486 over his last 15 days with 5 home runs and 123 hits on the season. He matches up against White Sox starter Sean Burke, who exhibits a heavy fly-ball profile (0.63 GO/AO ratio) and has surrendered 9 of his 13 home runs this season to left-handed batters. Alvarez hits out of the 2-spot in Houston's lineup, ensuring 4 to 5 plate appearances against a righty who yields fly-ball contact. He has cleared 1.5 total bases in 4 of his last 5 games.

GARY'S PICK

FREDDIE FREEMANHITS OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -200

Freddie Freeman is locked in at the plate, posting back-to-back 3-hit games against the Mets and Phillies (6-for-8 with 3 doubles across his last 2 starts). Over his last 7 games, Freeman is hitting .409 (9-for-22) with a 1.007 OPS. Batting 3rd in a high-powered Dodgers lineup averaging 5.2 runs per game, Freeman is guaranteed 4 to 5 plate appearances. Mets starter Nolan McLean has pitched well overall (3.34 ERA), but shows a distinct platoon split where left-handed batters hit .219 with a .672 OPS against him compared to .178 with a .549 OPS for right-handers. Freeman's elite barrel control, zone contact, and current hitting streak make him a high-probability candidate to record at least 1 hit.

GARY'S PICK

ELLY DE LA CRUZSB OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +200

Elly De La Cruz is one of the premier base-stealing threats in baseball with 18 stolen bases on the season, and he demonstrated that exact dynamic in Game 1 of this series yesterday by stealing 2 bases against St. Louis. De La Cruz enters in elite form, batting .317 (13-for-41) with a 1.038 OPS over his last 15 days. Batting leadoff against Andre Pallante, De La Cruz holds a strong platoon matchup against a starter who yields a .273 batting average and .743 OPS to left-handed batters (220 ABs). De La Cruz has also drawn 3 walks in 20 career head-to-head ABs against Pallante, providing multiple pathways to reach base. Once on base, Cincinnati gives De La Cruz an aggressive green light—he stole 2 bases yesterday alone. At +200 odds, the required break-even probability is only 33.3%, representing a distinct value edge given his high on-base expectation and elite running volume. Concrete risk: Pallante holds De La Cruz hitless and walkless across 4 plate appearances, or Pallante/Herrera control the running game cleanly to prevent any SB attempts.

GARY'S PICK

NATHAN EOVALDIK'S OVER 5.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -160

Nathan Eovaldi has demonstrated dominant strikeout form over his recent stretch, accumulating 39 strikeouts across 28.0 innings in his last 5 starts. He has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in 4 of those 5 outings, posting totals of 9, 9, 10, and 9 Ks. For the season, Eovaldi has recorded 122 strikeouts in 115.1 IP (1.06 K per inning). The Mariners' starting lineup features multiple swing-and-miss candidates through the middle and lower order, giving Eovaldi a high ceiling for strikeout accumulation. Key risk: Eovaldi lasted only 4.0 IP with 2 Ks in his last start at Atlanta, and Seattle's left-handed hitters could work deep pitch counts.

GARY'S PICK

BRANDON NIMMOH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -110

Brandon Nimmo enters tonight's contest in outstanding form, batting .385 (15-for-39, 1.004 OPS) over his last 15 days and .375 (9-for-24) over his last 7 days. Batting cleanup as a left-handed hitter, Nimmo is positioned to exploit Mariners starter Bryan Woo's primary platoon split: Woo allows a .254 AVG, .716 OPS, and 8 HR to lefties (240 AB) compared to a .204 AVG and .523 OPS to righties. Batting behind Joc Pederson (.348 L15 AVG) and Wyatt Langford (.308 L15 AVG) provides consistent RBI targets, while Nimmo recorded 2 H+R+RBI yesterday and 7 on July 21. Key risk: Woo holds a 1.09 season WHIP and 3.45 xERA, meaning a dominant outing from Woo could suppress overall baserunners.

THE LONG SHOT

MATT OLSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +350

1. THE PICK: Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350) 2. MATCHUP: Facing RHP Brandon Young (8-2, 3.25 ERA, 4.21 xERA) as a LHB. 3. THE KEY FACTOR: Olson's power profile against right-handed pitching (.929 OPS, 18 HR in 223 AB) translates to a home run in 26.2% of his games played this season (27 HR in 103 GP), comfortably surpassing the 22.2% break-even hurdle required at +350 odds. Facing Brandon Young—whose 4.21 xERA and 42.2% hard-hit rate allowed indicate underlying run-prevention regression—Olson enters after homering yesterday with a 5-total-base game. 4. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, clear, 81-82°F, wind 2–3 mph in from RF. 5. VOLUME FLOOR: Expected 4-5 PA batting 3rd in Atlanta's lineup; game total set at 8.5 runs. 6. THE RISK: Young holds lefties to a .238 AVG with a 6% barrel rate and could keep the ball down in the zone with his 93.6 mph sinker and 83.8 mph slider, forcing Olson into soft grounders or deep flyouts suppressed by the light breeze coming in from right field.

THE LONG SHOT

TYLER O'NEILLHR OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +400

1. THE PICK: Tyler O'Neill OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400) 2. MATCHUP: Facing RHP Bryce Elder (6-6, 4.06 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .306 AVG allowed vs RHB) as a RHB. 3. THE KEY FACTOR: Bryce Elder exhibits severe vulnerabilities against right-handed batters, allowing a .306 AVG, .841 OPS, and 8 HRs in 157 ABs to RHBs, alongside a 9.00 ERA over his last 5 starts (24 ER in 24.0 IP). O'Neill is making high-quality contact, posting a .429 AVG (6-14) and 1.003 OPS over his last 7 games. At +400 odds requiring a 20.0% break-even win rate, O'Neill's matchup against Elder's elevated 91.2 mph sinker and 88.6 mph cutter gives him an actionable edge to drive one out of the park. 4. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, clear, 81-82°F, wind 2–3 mph in from RF. 5. VOLUME FLOOR: Expected 4 PA batting 7th as Baltimore's designated hitter; game total set at 8.5 runs. 6. THE RISK: O'Neill has 6 HRs on the season in 168 ABs and could be limited to line-drive singles/doubles as he has in recent games, or Elder could induce ground balls if his 83.2 mph slider finds the lower edge of the strike zone.

THE LONG SHOT

HUNTER GOODMANHR OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +350

Hunter Goodman Over 0.5 Home Runs (+350) clears its 22.2% break-even threshold based on his elite season long-ball production and favorable platoon split. On the season, Goodman has hit 31 HR in 359 ABs, representing an 8.6% HR rate per AB. Against left-handed pitching, his numbers jump to a .292 AVG, .934 OPS, and 8 HR in 106 ABs. He faces Brewers left-hander Robert Gasser, who exhibits pronounced right-handed vulnerability, allowing 9 HR in 137 ABs to righties with a .795 opponent OPS. Goodman hits 4th as Colorado's DH, securing a stable volume floor of 4 plate appearances. Batting with 4 expected ABs at his season HR rate yields an expected single-game HR probability near 30%, making the +350 line a value play. THE RISK: Gasser stays out of the strike zone and issues walks, or Goodman grounds out on early-count changeups, failing to elevate the ball.

Research

152

PLATOON EDGETOR @ BOS
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 1st against Sonny Gray (RHP)
Over 187 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .812 OPS versus .310 in 32 AB the other way. He sees RHP Sonny Gray tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
TEAM RECORDTOR @ BOS
Red Sox 7-1 in Sonny Gray's last 8 starts
Red Sox are 7-1 in Sonny Gray's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDHOU @ CHW
White Sox 7-1 in Sean Burke's last 8 starts
White Sox are 7-1 in Sean Burke's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 6 in a row. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDNYY @ PHI
Phillies 1-7 in Tim Mayza's last 8 starts
Phillies are 1-7 in Tim Mayza's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDOAK @ MIN
Athletics 1-6 in Brady Basso's last 7 starts
Athletics are 1-6 in Brady Basso's last 7 starts this season — losers of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
PLATOON EDGENYY @ PHI
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Paul Goldschmidt's vs. Left line (1.082 OPS, 107 AB) sits well above his .593 mark the other way (152 AB). Tonight's starter Tim Mayza throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
TEAM RECORDARI @ WSH
Nationals 6-1 in Foster Griffin's last 7 starts
Nationals are 6-1 in Foster Griffin's last 7 starts this season — winners of his last 6 in a row. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDCLE @ TB
Rays 6-1 in Nick Martinez's last 7 starts
Rays are 6-1 in Nick Martinez's last 7 starts this season — winners of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
STREAKLAA @ SF
LAA games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Los Angeles Angels games have stayed UNDER 6 straight — just 4.5 runs a night against an average line of 8.2. Tonight's number sits at 8.75.
STREAKNYY @ PHI
NYY games have gone UNDER 6 straight
New York Yankees games have stayed UNDER 6 straight — just 6.5 runs a night against an average line of 9.5. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.
PLATOON EDGECIN @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Hunter Greene (RHP)
Over 269 AB vs. Right, Alec Burleson owns a .945 OPS versus .493 in 123 AB the other way. He sees RHP Hunter Greene tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
PLATOON EDGECHC @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
Esmerlyn Valdez's vs. Left line (1.405 OPS, 42 AB) sits well above his .871 mark the other way (75 AB). Tonight's starter Shota Imanaga throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ CHW
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Hunter Brown (RHP)
Over 224 AB vs. Right, Sam Antonacci owns a .860 OPS versus .526 in 64 AB the other way. He sees RHP Hunter Brown tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
BULLPENHOU @ CHW
Houston Astros pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Houston Astros's bullpen has thrown 14 innings across their last 3 games, with 5 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
TEAM RECORDLAD @ NYM
Dodgers 6-2 in Yoshinobu Yamamoto's last 8 starts
Dodgers are 6-2 in Yoshinobu Yamamoto's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDSEA @ TEX
Rangers 6-2 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 8 starts
Rangers are 6-2 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
PLATOON EDGEARI @ WSH
Dylan Crews (bats R) gets a LHP from the 5th spot
Dylan Crews's vs. Left line (.965 OPS, 64 AB) sits well above his .522 mark the other way (132 AB). Tonight's starter Mitch Bratt throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
HEAD-TO-HEADLAD @ NYM
Dodgers are 4-0 vs Mets this season
Dodgers lead the season series 4-0 over Mets. LAD won the last meeting 4-2.
TEAM RECORDLAA @ SF
Giants 6-2 in Robbie Ray's last 8 starts
Giants are 6-2 in Robbie Ray's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDLAA @ SF
Angels 2-6 in Ryan Johnson's last 8 starts
Angels are 2-6 in Ryan Johnson's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADKC @ DET
Tigers are 6-2 vs Royals this season
Tigers lead the season series 6-2 over Royals. DET won the last meeting 2-1.
TEAM RECORDATL @ BAL
Orioles 6-2 in Brandon Young's last 8 starts
Orioles are 6-2 in Brandon Young's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
HEAT CHECKSD @ MIA
Ty France: 1.359 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.359 OPS spans the last 15 days (43 PA) against a .883 season baseline, a 0.476 swing. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
HEAD-TO-HEADCOL @ MIL
Brewers are 5-1 vs Rockies this season
Brewers lead the season series 5-1 over Rockies. COL took the last meeting 5-2 — a revenge spot.
PLATOON EDGELAA @ SF
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Rafael Devers's vs. Right line (.914 OPS, 266 AB) sits well above his .530 mark the other way (127 AB). Tonight's starter Ryan Johnson throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
COOLING OFFCLE @ TB
Yandy Diaz: .451 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tanner Bibee
Yandy Diaz's .451 OPS over the last 15 days (54 PA) trails his .842 season mark, down 0.391. Tonight he draws RHP Tanner Bibee — his stronger side: a .845 OPS vs RHP across 276 AB.
PLATOON EDGEARI @ WSH
Corbin Carroll (bats L) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Corbin Carroll's vs. Left line (1.028 OPS, 116 AB) sits well above his .748 mark the other way (257 AB). Tonight's starter Foster Griffin throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
COOLING OFFCIN @ STL
Ivan Herrera: .348 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Greene
Ivan Herrera's .348 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .735 season mark, down 0.387. Tonight he draws RHP Hunter Greene — his weaker side: a .705 OPS vs RHP across 269 AB.
PLATOON EDGECOL @ MIL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.920 OPS, 273 AB) sits well above his .571 mark the other way (105 AB). Tonight's starter Ryan Feltner throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
SITUATIONALARI @ WSH
WSH's bullpen has covered 17 innings over the last 3 games
That is 17 relief innings in 3 games, led by Zack Littell (5) and Miles Mikolas (3.7). ARI's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
BULLPENARI @ WSH
Washington Nationals pen: 17 relief IP over their last 3 games
Washington Nationals's bullpen has thrown 17 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
STREAKCOL @ MIL
COL games have gone UNDER 5 straight
5 straight unders for COL — their games are producing only 12.2 runs against numbers around 14.3. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.
HEAT CHECKHOU @ CHW
Yordan Alvarez: 1.578 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 37 PA: a 1.578 OPS versus 1.084 for the season, 0.494 above his norm. He has 34 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
BULLPENSD @ MIA
San Diego Padres pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Diego Padres's bullpen has thrown 15.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
BULLPENOAK @ MIN
Minnesota Twins pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Minnesota Twins's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 5 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
STARTER FORMCOL @ MIL
Ryan Feltner: 9.95 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 12.7 innings, 14 earned runs, 19 hits. That 9.95 ERA runs 4.47 over his 5.48 season number.
HR THREATBraves @ Orioles
Matt Olson
1. THE PICK: Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350) 2.
BULLPENATL @ BAL
Atlanta Braves pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Atlanta Braves's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 5 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
PLATOON EDGESD @ MIA
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Randy Vasquez (RHP), batting 2nd
Kyle Stowers carries a .799 OPS vs. Right (235 AB) against .506 the other way (62 AB), and faces RHP Randy Vasquez from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
PLATOON EDGESD @ MIA
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 5th against Randy Vasquez (RHP)
Over 253 AB vs. Right, Liam Hicks owns a .884 OPS versus .519 in 69 AB the other way. He sees RHP Randy Vasquez tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
PLATOON EDGEKC @ DET
Vinnie Pasquantino (bats L) hits 5th against Casey Mize (RHP)
Over 203 AB vs. Right, Vinnie Pasquantino owns a .755 OPS versus .415 in 83 AB the other way. He sees RHP Casey Mize tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
HEAD-TO-HEADNYY @ PHI
Yankees are 4-1 vs Phillies this season
Yankees lead the season series 4-1 over Phillies. NYY won the last meeting 1-0.
HEAT CHECKATL @ BAL
Drake Baldwin: 1.228 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 42 PA: a 1.228 OPS versus .850 for the season, 0.378 above his norm. He has 20 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
COOLING OFFSD @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .410 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Randy Vasquez
Otto Lopez's .410 OPS over the last 15 days (32 PA) trails his .860 season mark, down 0.45. Tonight he draws RHP Randy Vasquez — his weaker side: a .814 OPS vs RHP across 307 AB.
HEAD-TO-HEADSEA @ TEX
Rangers are 6-3 vs Mariners this season
Rangers lead the season series 6-3 over Mariners. TEX won the last meeting 5-4.
HR THREATRockies @ Brewers
Hunter Goodman
Hunter Goodman enters tonight on a massive power tear, having smashed 4 home runs with 7 RBIs and a 1.700 OPS over his last 7 games. On the season, Goodman has hit 31 home runs in 359 at-bats—averaging a home run every 11.6 ABs.
SITUATIONALTOR @ BOS
BOS's pen has logged 16 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 16 innings out of the pen — Brayan Bello (5.3) and Garrett Whitlock (2) carried the load. TOR's pen has thrown 13.7 over the same span.
HEAT CHECKCLE @ TB
Steven Kwan: 1.092 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 36 PA: a 1.092 OPS versus .660 for the season, 0.432 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
SITUATIONALSD @ MIA
15.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 15.7 innings over the last 3 games (Griffin Canning (2.7) and Adrian Morejon (2.3) the heaviest). MIA's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
BULLPENTOR @ BOS
Toronto Blue Jays pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Toronto Blue Jays's bullpen has thrown 13.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
BULLPENCLE @ TB
Cleveland Guardians pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Cleveland Guardians's bullpen has thrown 13.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
COOLING OFFOAK @ MIN
Ryan Kreidler: .207 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Brady Basso
Ryan Kreidler's .207 OPS over the last 15 days (29 PA) trails his .668 season mark, down 0.461. Tonight he draws LHP Brady Basso — his weaker side: a .587 OPS vs LHP across 63 AB.
SITUATIONALOAK @ MIN
15.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for MIN
Relievers have absorbed 15.7 innings over the last 3 games (Mike Paredes (3) and Taylor Rogers (2.3) the heaviest). OAK's pen has thrown 11.7 over the same span.
STARTER FORMHOU @ CHW
Hunter Brown: 7.98 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 14.7 innings, 13 earned runs, 13 hits. That 7.98 ERA runs 3.93 over his 4.05 season number.
HEAT CHECKARI @ WSH
Nolan Arenado: 1.154 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (36 PA) he is at a 1.154 OPS, up 0.399 on his .755 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
HR THREATBraves @ Orioles
Tyler O'Neill
1. THE PICK: Tyler O'Neill OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400) 2.
HEAT CHECKARI @ WSH
Tim Tawa: 1.030 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 42 PA: a 1.030 OPS versus .692 for the season, 0.338 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
COOLING OFFKC @ DET
Kerry Carpenter: .143 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael Wacha
Kerry Carpenter's .143 OPS over the last 15 days (28 PA) trails his .698 season mark, down 0.555. Tonight he draws RHP Michael Wacha — his stronger side: a .731 OPS vs RHP across 203 AB.
STREAKKC @ DET
DET games have gone UNDER 4 straight
The under has cashed 4 in a row in DET games: 5.3 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 7.5. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.
HEAT CHECKCIN @ STL
Eugenio Suarez: 1.098 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (34 PA) he is at a 1.098 OPS, up 0.398 on his .700 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
PLATOON EDGEKC @ DET
Gleyber Torres (bats R) hits 3rd against Michael Wacha (RHP)
Over 132 AB vs. Right, Gleyber Torres owns a .846 OPS versus .603 in 38 AB the other way. He sees RHP Michael Wacha tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
SITUATIONALSEA @ TEX
TEX's pen has logged 14.3 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14.3 innings out of the pen — Marco Gonzales (3) and Cal Quantrill (3) carried the load. SEA's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
BULLPENCOL @ MIL
Colorado Rockies pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Colorado Rockies's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
BATTER VS ARMKC @ DET
Salvador Perez vs Casey Mize: .424
Salvador Perez has gone 14-for-33 (.424) across 33 career at-bats off Casey Mize, with 1 HR. They meet again tonight. He enters hot (.811 OPS, L15).
COOLING OFFSD @ MIA
Kyle Stowers: .353 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Randy Vasquez
Kyle Stowers's .353 OPS over the last 15 days (38 PA) trails his .738 season mark, down 0.385. Tonight he draws RHP Randy Vasquez — his stronger side: a .799 OPS vs RHP across 235 AB.
HR THREATRockies @ Brewers
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers provides strong power upside as a left-handed hitter facing Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner. Bauers has hit 18 home runs in 317 at-bats this season.
HEAT CHECKSD @ MIA
Luis Rengifo: 1.176 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 23 PA: a 1.176 OPS versus .605 for the season, 0.571 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
COOLING OFFSEA @ TEX
Dominic Canzone: .465 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Nathan Eovaldi
Dominic Canzone's .465 OPS over the last 15 days (30 PA) trails his .834 season mark, down 0.369. Tonight he draws RHP Nathan Eovaldi — his weaker side: a .818 OPS vs RHP across 218 AB.
BULLPENSEA @ TEX
Texas Rangers pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Texas Rangers's bullpen has thrown 14 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
PARK WEATHERLAA @ SF
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Tonight's reading at Oracle Park — Sunny, 66°, wind 13 mph, Out To CF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 9.
SITUATIONALLAD @ NYM
14 bullpen innings in 3 games for LAD
Relievers have absorbed 14 innings over the last 3 games (Tanner Scott (2.7) and Evan Phillips (2) the heaviest). NYM's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
HEAT CHECKNYY @ PHI
Trea Turner: 1.012 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (37 PA) he is at a 1.012 OPS, up 0.334 on his .678 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
COOLING OFFLAA @ SF
Heliot Ramos: .483 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Johnson
Heliot Ramos's .483 OPS over the last 15 days (41 PA) trails his .744 season mark, down 0.261. Tonight he draws RHP Ryan Johnson — his weaker side: a .703 OPS vs RHP across 196 AB.
SITUATIONALHOU @ CHW
14 bullpen innings in 3 games for HOU
Relievers have absorbed 14 innings over the last 3 games (AJ Blubaugh (3) and Bennett Sousa (2) the heaviest). CHW's pen has thrown 12.3 over the same span.
COOLING OFFCIN @ STL
Jordan Walker: .614 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Greene
Jordan Walker's .614 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .863 season mark, down 0.249. Tonight he draws RHP Hunter Greene — his weaker side: a .835 OPS vs RHP across 291 AB.
SITUATIONALCLE @ TB
13.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for CLE
Relievers have absorbed 13.7 innings over the last 3 games (Erik Sabrowski (2.3) and Matt Festa (2.3) the heaviest). TB's pen has thrown 13 over the same span.
REGRESSIONNYY @ PHI
Edmundo Sosa: .217 AVG vs .287 xBA
Edmundo Sosa's .217 average comes against a .287 expected (xBA) on 176 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .265 against a .335 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
COOLING OFFCOL @ MIL
Tyler Freeman: .182 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Robert Gasser
Tyler Freeman's .182 OPS over the last 15 days (22 PA) trails his .654 season mark, down 0.472. Tonight he draws LHP Robert Gasser — his weaker side: a .585 OPS vs LHP across 81 AB.
COOLING OFFCHC @ PIT
Ryan O'Hearn: .499 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shota Imanaga
Ryan O'Hearn's .499 OPS over the last 15 days (34 PA) trails his .801 season mark, down 0.302. Tonight he draws LHP Shota Imanaga — his weaker side: a .652 OPS vs LHP across 104 AB.
REGRESSIONCLE @ TB
Nick Martinez: 2.59 ERA vs 4.62 xERA
Nick Martinez carries a 2.59 ERA against a 4.62 expected ERA (2.03 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .248 off him vs a .280 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
REGRESSIONCHC @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: .282 AVG vs .220 xBA
Esmerlyn Valdez's .282 average comes against a .220 expected (xBA) on 135 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .440 against a .363 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
STARTER FORMSD @ MIA
Eury Perez: 0.95 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (19 IP) he has a 0.95 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP (1.11 season) and 23 strikeouts — his season mark is 3.53, and that is where most lines still price him.
RUNNING GAMECIN @ STL
Green light: Cincinnati Reds run, and Ivan Herrera has caught just 0%
Cincinnati Reds steal 0.7 bags a game (72 on the season) and Ivan Herrera has thrown out 0 of 26 runners (0%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
HEAT CHECKCLE @ TB
Victor Mesa Jr.: 1.170 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (25 PA) he is at a 1.170 OPS, up 0.391 on his .779 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
STARTER FORMATL @ BAL
Bryce Elder: 6.43 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 14 innings, 10 earned runs, 15 hits. That 6.43 ERA runs 2.37 over his 4.06 season number.
BALLPARKCIN @ STL
At Busch Stadium, Andre Pallante pitches to a 4.99 ERA
Andre Pallante at Busch Stadium: 4.99 ERA over 61.3 innings (11G) — 2.66 on a 44-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .293 off him here.
HEAT CHECKTOR @ BOS
Wilyer Abreu: .999 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (41 PA) he is at a .999 OPS, up 0.222 on his .777 season mark. He has 15 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
STARTER FORMLAD @ NYM
Nolan McLean: 1.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 2 earned runs over his last 18 innings (1.00 ERA) with a 0.94 WHIP (1.09 season) — a different pitcher than the 3.34 season line says.
STARTER FORMLAA @ SF
Ryan Johnson: 3.86 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (14 IP) he has a 3.86 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP (1.43 season) and 12 strikeouts — his season mark is 6.10, and that is where most lines still price him.
BALLPARKLAD @ NYM
At Citi Field, Nolan McLean pitches to a 4.47 ERA
Nolan McLean at Citi Field: 4.47 ERA over 54.3 innings (10G) — 2.29 on a 59-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .225 off him here.
REGRESSIONSEA @ TEX
Nicky Lopez: .314 AVG vs .264 xBA
Nicky Lopez is hitting .314 against a .264 expected average (xBA) over 150 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .313 against a .271 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
STARTER FORMCHC @ PIT
Shota Imanaga: 1.62 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 3 earned runs over his last 16.7 innings (1.62 ERA) with a 1.32 WHIP (1.11 season) — a different pitcher than the 3.91 season line says.
STARTER FORMHOU @ CHW
Sean Burke: 0.92 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (19.7 IP) he has a 0.92 ERA with a 0.71 WHIP (1.13 season) and 25 strikeouts — his season mark is 3.20, and that is where most lines still price him.
COOLING OFFARI @ WSH
Ketel Marte: .541 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Foster Griffin
Ketel Marte's .541 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .769 season mark, down 0.228. Tonight he draws LHP Foster Griffin — his stronger side: a .949 OPS vs LHP across 106 AB.
COOLING OFFKC @ DET
Nick Loftin: .492 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Casey Mize
Nick Loftin's .492 OPS over the last 15 days (32 PA) trails his .731 season mark, down 0.239. Tonight he draws RHP Casey Mize — his weaker side: a .685 OPS vs RHP across 115 AB.
COOLING OFFLAA @ SF
Jung Hoo Lee: .513 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Johnson
Jung Hoo Lee's .513 OPS over the last 15 days (38 PA) trails his .753 season mark, down 0.24. Tonight he draws RHP Ryan Johnson — his stronger side: a .758 OPS vs RHP across 262 AB.
HEAT CHECKTOR @ BOS
Masataka Yoshida: 1.000 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.000 OPS spans the last 15 days (30 PA) against a .735 season baseline, a 0.265 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
HEAT CHECKCLE @ TB
Chandler Simpson: .884 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (40 PA) he is at a .884 OPS, up 0.205 on his .679 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
REGRESSIONLAA @ SF
Ryan Johnson: 6.1 ERA vs 4.62 xERA
Ryan Johnson carries a 6.1 ERA against a 4.62 expected ERA (1.48 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .262 off him vs a .247 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
REGRESSIONCOL @ MIL
TJ Rumfield: .301 AVG vs .255 xBA
TJ Rumfield's .301 average comes against a .255 expected (xBA) on 411 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .379 against a .327 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
REGRESSIONCHC @ PIT
Nico Hoerner: .244 AVG vs .291 xBA
Nico Hoerner is hitting .244 against a .291 expected average (xBA) over 451 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .290 against a .321 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
BATTER VS ARMSEA @ TEX
Julio Rodriguez vs Nathan Eovaldi: .389
Julio Rodriguez's career line off Nathan Eovaldi is 7-for-18, a .389 average over 18 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters steady (.659 OPS, L15).
TOMORROWCIN @ STL
Kyle Leahy: 3.59 ERA vs 5.24 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CIN. A 3.59 ERA against a 5.24 expected ERA (1.65 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .262 vs .272 expected.
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ MIL
Brice Turang
Pickup vs Ryan Feltner (5.85 xERA) — .824 OPS, bats 3rd.
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ MIL
Garrett Mitchell
Pickup vs Ryan Feltner (5.85 xERA) — .813 OPS, bats 6th.
REGRESSIONOAK @ MIN
Donovan Walton: .301 AVG vs .256 xBA
Donovan Walton's .301 average comes against a .256 expected (xBA) on 117 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .380 against a .323 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
BATTER VS ARMCHC @ PIT
Michael Busch vs Paul Skenes: .286
In 14 career at-bats against Paul Skenes, Michael Busch is 4-for-14 for a 1.087 OPS (4 walks). The two square off again tonight. He enters hot (.845 OPS, L15).
TOMORROWCOL @ MIL
Kyle Freeland: 7.28 ERA vs 5.64 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIL. A 7.28 ERA against a 5.64 expected ERA (1.64 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .317 vs .294 expected.
PARK WEATHERTOR @ BOS
Wind blowing in 10 mph at Fenway Park tonight
Tonight's reading at Fenway Park — Sunny, 79°, wind 10 mph, In From RF. The air is taking runs off the board. The total sits at 7.
REGRESSIONLAA @ SF
Robbie Ray: 3.33 ERA vs 4.62 xERA
Robbie Ray carries a 3.33 ERA against a 4.62 expected ERA (1.29 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .223 off him vs a .239 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
REGRESSIONLAA @ SF
Luis Arraez: .324 AVG vs .284 xBA
Luis Arraez is hitting .324 against a .284 expected average (xBA) over 429 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .347 against a .303 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
REGRESSIONSD @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .330 AVG vs .289 xBA
Otto Lopez is hitting .330 against a .289 expected average (xBA) over 433 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .370 against a .336 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
REGRESSIONTOR @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela: .282 AVG vs .241 xBA
Ceddanne Rafaela's .282 average comes against a .241 expected (xBA) on 402 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .335 against a .281 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ MIL
Jackson Chourio
Pickup vs Ryan Feltner (5.85 xERA) — .807 OPS, bats 2nd.
HEAT CHECKKC @ DET
Isaac Collins: .925 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (36 PA) he is at a .925 OPS, up 0.204 on his .721 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
HEAT CHECKKC @ DET
Salvador Perez: .811 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (38 PA) he is at a .811 OPS, up 0.193 on his .618 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
FANTASY PICKUPSKC @ DET
Casey Mize
Streamer vs KC — 3.14 xERA · 9.1 K/9 · 1.03 WHIP.
REGRESSIONTOR @ BOS
Ernie Clement: .293 AVG vs .255 xBA
Across 408 plate appearances, Ernie Clement carries a .293 average versus a .255 xBA. His wOBA sits at .321 against a .273 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
RUNNING GAMECOL @ MIL
Colorado Rockies like to run — William Contreras (42% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
William Contreras owns a 42% caught-stealing rate (19 of 45) and Colorado Rockies run anyway — 0.7 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
BATTER VS ARMSEA @ TEX
Cal Raleigh vs Nathan Eovaldi: .286
Cal Raleigh's career line off Nathan Eovaldi is 4-for-14, a .286 average over 14 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters cold (.514 OPS, L15).
FANTASY PICKUPSLAD @ NYM
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Streamer vs NYM — 3.22 xERA · 8.5 K/9 · 0.88 WHIP.
REGRESSIONARI @ WSH
Foster Griffin: 2.69 ERA vs 3.88 xERA
Foster Griffin carries a 2.69 ERA against a 3.88 expected ERA (1.2 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .215 off him vs a .243 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
REGRESSIONTOR @ BOS
Sonny Gray: 2.48 ERA vs 3.64 xERA
Sonny Gray carries a 2.48 ERA against a 3.64 expected ERA (1.16 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .229 off him vs a .241 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
BATTER VS ARMCOL @ MIL
Christian Yelich vs Ryan Feltner: .417
Christian Yelich has gone 5-for-12 (.417) across 12 career at-bats off Ryan Feltner. They meet again tonight. He enters hot (.835 OPS, L15).
FANTASY PICKUPSOAK @ MIN
Tommy White
Pickup vs Mike Paredes (5.23 xERA) — .835 OPS, bats 5th.
TOMORROWLAD @ NYM
Emmet Sheehan: 5.13 ERA vs 3.88 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs NYM. A 5.13 ERA against a 3.88 expected ERA (1.25 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .249 vs .232 expected.
BATTER VS ARMCHC @ PIT
Nico Hoerner vs Paul Skenes: .333
Nico Hoerner has gone 4-for-12 (.333) across 12 career at-bats off Paul Skenes, with 1 HR. They meet again tonight. He enters cold (.619 OPS, L15).
TOMORROWOAK @ MIN
Jeffrey Springs: 5.96 ERA vs 4.78 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIN. A 5.96 ERA against a 4.78 expected ERA (1.18 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .267 vs .250 expected.
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ MIL
William Contreras
Pickup vs Ryan Feltner (5.85 xERA) — .734 OPS, bats 4th.
RUNNING GAMESD @ MIA
Miami Marlins like to run — Freddy Fermin (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Miami Marlins attempt 1.3 steals a game, but Freddy Fermin has cut down 16 of 47 runners (34%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
RUNNING GAMESEA @ TEX
Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Austin Wynns has caught just 11%
Austin Wynns is catching tonight at 11% on the season (2-for-19 throwing), and Seattle Mariners attempt 1 steals a game. The track meet is on.
TOMORROWLAD @ NYM
Freddy Peralta: 5.01 ERA vs 3.83 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs LAD. A 5.01 ERA against a 3.83 expected ERA (1.18 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .261 vs .235 expected.
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ WSH
Andres Chaparro
Pickup vs Mitch Bratt (5.3 xERA) — .791 OPS, bats 3rd.
FANTASY PICKUPSSEA @ TEX
Bryan Woo
Streamer vs TEX — 3.46 xERA · 8.9 K/9 · 1.09 WHIP.
RUNNING GAMESD @ MIA
Green light: San Diego Padres run, and Liam Hicks has caught just 15%
Liam Hicks is catching tonight at 15% on the season (6-for-41 throwing), and San Diego Padres attempt 1.3 steals a game. The track meet is on.
BATTER VS ARMCLE @ TB
Yandy Diaz vs Tanner Bibee: .300
Yandy Diaz's career line off Tanner Bibee is 3-for-10, a .300 average over 10 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters cold (.451 OPS, L15).
FANTASY PICKUPSNYY @ PHI
Tim Mayza
Streamer vs NYY — 3.48 xERA · 8.8 K/9 · 1.16 WHIP.
BALLPARKCLE @ TB
At Tropicana Field, Nick Martinez pitches to a 3.07 ERA
Nick Martinez at Tropicana Field: 3.07 ERA over 58.7 innings (10G) — 2.05 on a 52.7-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .254 off him here.
TOMORROWSD @ MIA
Janson Junk: 5.09 ERA vs 4.22 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SD. A 5.09 ERA against a 4.22 expected ERA (0.87 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .269 vs .254 expected.
FIRST INNINGSD @ MIA
MIA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Miami Marlins have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
TOMORROWSD @ MIA
Walker Buehler: 5.23 ERA vs 4.36 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIA. A 5.23 ERA against a 4.36 expected ERA (0.87 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .258 vs .251 expected.
TOMORROWATL @ BAL
Reynaldo López: 3.96 ERA vs 4.87 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs BAL. A 3.96 ERA against a 4.87 expected ERA (0.92 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .246 vs .262 expected.
TOMORROWLAA @ SF
José Soriano: 3.43 ERA vs 4.37 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SF. A 3.43 ERA against a 4.37 expected ERA (0.94 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .219 vs .244 expected.
FIRST INNINGSEA @ TEX
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Seattle Mariners have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHC @ PIT
Shota Imanaga
Streamer vs PIT — 3.74 xERA · 8.5 K/9 · 1.11 WHIP.
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ SF
Casey Schmitt
Pickup vs Ryan Johnson (4.61 xERA) — .792 OPS, bats 5th.
BATTER VS ARMKC @ DET
Colt Keith vs Michael Wacha: .350
Colt Keith has gone 7-for-20 (.350) across 20 career at-bats off Michael Wacha. They meet again tonight. He enters steady (.660 OPS, L15).
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ SF
Rafael Devers
Pickup vs Ryan Johnson (4.61 xERA) — .791 OPS, bats 4th.
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ WSH
Foster Griffin
Streamer vs ARI — 3.88 xERA · 8.5 K/9 · 1.03 WHIP.
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ SF
Heliot Ramos
Pickup vs Ryan Johnson (4.61 xERA) — .744 OPS, bats 2nd.
FIRST INNINGCHC @ PIT
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Pittsburgh Pirates have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
FIRST INNINGARI @ WSH
ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Arizona Diamondbacks have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.

Graded results

Games

L
Detroit Tigers ML -158
MLB · 3-2
W
Giants ML -130
MLB · 2-9
L
Red Sox ML -110
MLB · 6-0
W
Nationals ML -134
MLB · 3-5
W
Padres ML +120
MLB · 7-2
W
Rays ML -124
MLB · 0-3
W
New York Yankees ML -126
MLB · 3-1
L
Pittsburgh Pirates ML -120
MLB · 11-0
L
Cincinnati Reds ML -104
MLB · 0-7
W
Baltimore Orioles ML -116
MLB · 2-3
L
Athletics ML +124
MLB · 0-2
W
Rangers ML -104
MLB · 1-7
W
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -106
MLB · 5-8
L
White Sox ML -120
MLB · 4-1
W
Dodgers ML -154
MLB · 4-3

Props

L
Alec Bohm · over
Yankees @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Brandon Nimmo · over
Mariners @ Rangers · Actual 1
L
Bryce Eldridge · over
Angels @ Giants · Actual 0
L
Christian Encarnacion-Strand · over
Braves @ Orioles · Actual 1
W
CJ Abrams · over
Diamondbacks @ Nationals · Actual 7
L
Drake Baldwin · over
Braves @ Orioles · Actual 1
L
Elly De La Cruz · over
Reds @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Eury Perez · over
Padres @ Marlins · Actual 2
W
Freddie Freeman · over
Dodgers @ Mets · Actual 3
L
Gabriel Moreno · over
Diamondbacks @ Nationals · Actual 1
L
Hunter Goodman · over
Rockies @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Hunter Goodman · over
Rockies @ Brewers · Actual 1
L
Matt Olson · over
Braves @ Orioles · Actual 0
W
Nathan Eovaldi · over
Mariners @ Rangers · Actual 8
W
Salvador Perez · over
Royals @ Tigers · Actual 3
L
Steven Kwan · over
Guardians @ Rays · Actual 1
L
Trea Turner · over
Yankees @ Phillies · Actual 1
L
Trevor Larnach · over
Athletics @ Twins · Actual 1
L
Tyler O'Neill · over
Braves @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Willson Contreras · over
Blue Jays @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Yordan Alvarez · over
Astros @ White Sox · Actual 0