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2026-07-24

The stored Gary board for Fri, Jul 24. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

15
MLB4:10 PM

Rockies @ Brewers

Friday afternoon under the closed roof at American Family Field, Shane Drohan faces Tomoyuki Sugano in the series opener. Milwaukee is the obvious choice, but the price to simply win is too steep. I’m taking the Brewers to win by at least two runs at a much more reasonable price. The starting pitching difference is the main reason. Drohan has allowed fewer runs, fewer baserunners and less dangerous contact, and his underlying performance is much stronger than Sugano’s. Sugano has struggled badly against left-handed hitters and has given up plenty of power to them, while Milwaukee is starting six hitters who bat left-handed or from both sides. Drohan has handled left-handed hitters especially well without allowing a home run, and right-handed hitters have not done much better against him. That gives Milwaukee the better matchup from the first inning. The full-game picture also favors Milwaukee winning by more than one. The Brewers have allowed far fewer runs and baserunners, and they have been the cleaner defensive team. Both relief groups had the same amount of rest, so neither side has a scheduling advantage. Milwaukee has played very well at home, Colorado has struggled on the road, and the Brewers have won every meeting this season while scoring nearly twice as many runs. None of that guarantees a win tonight, but it supports the advantages in pitching and defense. A one-run Brewers win would beat me, but I’ll accept that risk instead of paying the heavy price for Milwaukee simply to win.

Brewers -1.5-124
CONF
68%
MLB6:40 PM

Cubs @ Pirates

Friday night at PNC Park looks close to even between division rivals. It is a pitcher-friendly park, with a light wind blowing in from right field. I’m backing Pittsburgh because Jared Jones’ pitching and the Pirates’ confirmed lineup both give them an edge. Jones has pitched better than his basic results suggest, while Matthew Boyd has pitched worse than his. Jones also allows fewer runners, gets more strikeouts, and gives up less hard contact. Their basic run-prevention numbers look similar, but the deeper picture favors Jones. Pittsburgh can load its lineup with right-handed and switch hitters, which matters because right-handed batters have done much better against Boyd than left-handed batters. The Pirates have also hit slightly better than Chicago this season. The concern is that Chicago has several hitters who can bat left-handed against Jones, and the Cubs have played cleaner defense. That is why I’m taking Pittsburgh simply to win, rather than asking for a bigger margin. At this nearly even price, Jones and Pittsburgh’s lineup matchup are enough for me to back the home team.

Pirates ML-110
CONF
59%
MLB6:40 PM

Royals @ Tigers

Friday night at Comerica Park, Tarik Skubal starts for Detroit while Beck Way makes his first start of the year for Kansas City. Detroit has the better starting pitcher, but I’m betting the Royals to win or lose by only one run instead of paying a steep price on the Tigers to win. Detroit has beaten Kansas City every time they have met here this season, but each game was decided by one run. That does not guarantee anything tonight, but it shows why getting that extra run matters. Skubal is the biggest threat to my bet, but Kansas City’s offense has been just as productive as Detroit’s this season. Skubal has also been more vulnerable against left-handed hitters, and the Royals have several productive bats from that side. Carter Jensen, Vinnie Pasquantino, Isaac Collins and Michael Massey have all been hitting well lately. I do not need them to overpower Skubal, only to keep Kansas City close. Way has had trouble with left-handed hitters, but he has been very effective against right-handed bats. Detroit has several of those, including Gleyber Torres, Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Hao-Yu Lee, Matt Vierling and Ben Malgeri. Comerica Park tends to hold down scoring, and the wind blowing in from center field could help keep the game tight. Kansas City’s tired relief pitchers are the main concern, especially with John Schreiber and Steven Cruz working on back-to-back days, but the matchup and conditions make the extra run worth taking. I’m backing the Royals to keep it within one.

Kansas City Royals +1.5+105
CONF
58%
MLB6:45 PM

Yankees @ Phillies

Friday night at Citizens Bank Park features two strong starters in warm weather that should help the hitters. Cam Schlittler faces Jesús Luzardo, and while Philadelphia is favored at home, I’m taking the Yankees to win at underdog odds. Schlittler has earned my trust with excellent run prevention, limited baserunners, and even better work on the road. Luzardo is dangerous, and his underlying results are stronger than his overall numbers, but right-handed hitters have handled him much better than lefties. New York brings a right-handed-heavy lineup, plus switch-hitter Jasson Dominguez, and Paul Goldschmidt has crushed left-handed pitching. Trea Turner and Alec Bohm are swinging well for Philadelphia, and Schlittler’s underlying numbers suggest he has not been quite as dominant as his results. That makes this close, but I still do not believe New York should be the underdog. The Yankees have been stronger on the road and are playing better lately than the Phillies have at home. Their much better season-long scoring margin also shows the gap between these teams, and New York has the stronger relief pitching. Both bullpens are rested after a day off. I expect Schlittler to keep the Yankees close long enough for their right-handed bats and deeper bullpen to make the difference. I’m not paying a steep price just to get extra run protection. My pick is the Yankees to win.

Yankees ML+116
CONF
59%
MLB6:45 PM

Diamondbacks @ Nationals

Friday night in Washington brings two strong lineups into warm weather with the wind helping balls hit toward left field. Arizona has won three in a row, while Washington comes home after a shutout win, so both teams should feel confident. The starting pitching matchup is closer than the surface results suggest. Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched well overall, but there are warning signs that he has been fortunate. Carson Palmquist has struggled badly, even though his underlying performance suggests he has deserved better. Still, he has not pitched deep into recent games and has allowed too many runners. I do not trust him against an Arizona lineup that has been scoring heavily. Washington has also hit well lately, but Arizona has the better overall pitching, limits runners more effectively and plays much cleaner defense. Washington still has a real chance because Rodriguez was hit hard in his last start and could struggle again. The Nationals are also rested, while Arizona played the previous day. That is why I am taking the Diamondbacks simply to win instead of asking them to win by multiple runs. I expect Arizona’s lineup to pressure Palmquist and Washington’s pitchers, while Rodriguez, the better defense and stronger pitching give Arizona more ways to close it out.

Diamondbacks ML-124
CONF
64%
MLB7:05 PM

Braves @ Orioles

Friday night at Camden Yards, Atlanta opens the series against a Baltimore team that has been playing very well lately. Trevor Rogers is my first reason for backing the Orioles. He has been excellent over his recent starts and especially tough on left-handed hitters, which matters because Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, and Michael Harris are near the top of Atlanta’s order. Grant Holmes has pitched well, but his deeper results suggest he has been less effective than he looks, and he has not worked deep into games lately. Baltimore’s balanced lineup can also match up with him from either side. That puts more pressure on the relief pitchers, where Baltimore has the better setup. The Orioles were off Thursday, and Yennier Cano, Andrew Kittredge, and Tyler Wells were barely used in their latest appearances. Atlanta played yesterday, while Raisel Iglesias has pitched on back-to-back days and worked more the second time. Baltimore has also been winning more often lately while allowing fewer runs. Atlanta has scored more, but Rogers’ current form and Baltimore’s rest advantage give the Orioles the better setup tonight. I respect that Atlanta has been the better team over the full season and scores more runs overall. That is why I am only asking Baltimore to win, not to win by multiple runs. I expect the Orioles to get through Rogers’ innings and reach the late part of the game with more options available. I will pay the reasonable favorite price and back Baltimore to win outright.

Orioles ML-132
CONF
64%
MLB7:10 PM

Guardians @ Rays

Friday night, I trust Tampa Bay because Shane McClanahan has been much better at home than Joey Cantillo has been overall or on the road. The deeper pitching indicators say the gap between them may be smaller than their usual results suggest, but McClanahan’s strong home performances give me more confidence in the Rays. Tampa Bay has also been the better hitting team this season. The Rays will use six right-handed hitters against Cantillo, who has had more trouble with righties, while McClanahan has handled hitters from both sides well. Cleveland has played better lately, and Chase DeLauter is hitting well, but José Ramírez is missing from the confirmed lineup. Tampa Bay also has Junior Caminero coming in hot. The Rays should have the fresher late-game pitchers, since Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly had a light workload two days ago. Cleveland used Cade Smith and Colin Holderman more heavily yesterday. That does not guarantee a win, but it gives Tampa Bay a cleaner path after the starters leave. I’m taking the Rays to win outright instead of needing them to win by multiple runs, because every meeting this season has been close.

Rays ML-138
CONF
65%
MLB7:10 PM

Dodgers @ Mets

Friday night at Citi Field, both starting pitchers have been inconsistent. Neither Roki Sasaki nor Sean Manaea gives his team a clear edge. Manaea has struggled against right-handed hitters, which suits much of the Dodgers lineup. Sasaki has also been vulnerable to right-handed hitters, giving the Mets a chance, but Los Angeles has the stronger lineup around its starter. The Dodgers have hit better and scored more all season, and that gap has remained clear lately. They have also played well on the road, while the Mets have struggled at home. Los Angeles has won every meeting between these teams this season and outscored New York comfortably. That does not guarantee another win, but it supports the bigger picture. The Dodgers also have the better overall pitching staff and cleaner defense. Both teams were off Thursday, so bullpen rest is not a factor. Sasaki’s tendency to allow home runs makes a close game possible, so I am taking the Dodgers simply to win rather than asking them to win by multiple runs. I am comfortable paying this price for the better offense, stronger pitching and better defense.

Dodgers ML-130
CONF
66%
MLB7:10 PM

Padres @ Marlins

Friday night under the closed roof at loanDepot park, Miami comes home trying to end a long losing streak while San Diego nears the end of a long road trip. I’m backing the Marlins to win because their starting pitcher, lineup setup and rest situation are better than the recent results suggest. Ryan Gusto has pitched better than Germán Márquez, especially based on the quality of contact each has allowed. Márquez has struggled badly against left-handed hitters, and Miami can keep sending left-handed bats at him, along with switch-hitter Xavier Edwards. Griffin Conine has also been especially dangerous lately, hitting for plenty of power. Meanwhile, Gusto has handled right-handed hitters well, which matters against a San Diego lineup led by Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Ty France. San Diego’s offense has been much hotter, so I’m not asking Miami to win by multiple runs. But the Marlins have been much better at home, while the Padres have struggled away and are deep into a long road trip after playing Thursday. Miami had Thursday off and barely used its relief pitchers in the previous game, while San Diego had to use several pitchers. I believe Miami’s favorable hitting matchups and fresher pitching staff matter more tonight than either team’s recent record. I’m simply asking the Marlins to win.

Miami Marlins ML-126
CONF
61%
MLB7:15 PM

Blue Jays @ Red Sox

Friday night at Fenway, with the wind blowing toward left field, Boston comes in hot against Toronto. The Red Sox are favored, but I’m backing the underdog Blue Jays because I trust Trey Yesavage much more than Patrick Sandoval. Yesavage has been the steadier starter, while Sandoval has barely pitched, is still on a limited pitch count, and hasn’t looked nearly as sharp. Boston has been rolling while Toronto has struggled, and the Red Sox also have the better bullpen. Boston was off Thursday, while Toronto played and had to use its top late-game relievers again. That means Toronto needs Yesavage to pitch deep, which he has done in most of his recent starts. The Blue Jays also have a lineup loaded with right-handed hitters against Sandoval, giving them a chance to score before Boston turns to its best relievers. Toronto has also controlled the recent meetings, though that isn’t the main reason for my bet. More importantly, Yesavage has handled Boston well, while Sandoval has struggled against Toronto. Boston has the better recent form and bullpen, but Toronto has the starter I trust more, and the underdog price makes up for the other concerns. I think the Blue Jays can win outright, so I’m taking them to win rather than paying a steep price for an extra run.

Blue Jays ML+108
CONF
57%
MLB7:40 PM

Astros @ White Sox

Friday night, Houston brings a winning streak to Chicago, where the White Sox have played very well at home. Houston’s hitters at the top of the order are dangerous, but over the full game I favor Chicago. I’m taking the White Sox simply to win. Davis Martin has been the steadier starter, especially at home, and he has shown better control. Spencer Arrighetti has struggled more overall, particularly on the road, at night, and with walks. He has also had much more trouble against left-handed hitters, and Chicago can load its lineup with left-handed and switch-hitters. Houston has fewer left-handed bats, while Martin has handled hitters from both sides about equally. Both pitchers’ underlying results suggest they have been somewhat fortunate, but Chicago still has the cleaner matchup. The White Sox have been playing better lately, scoring more and allowing fewer runs than Houston. Both relief groups are rested, but Chicago has more dependable options for important late innings, while Houston has some shaky relievers before its strong closer. I respect Houston’s recent hitting and the wind blowing in from right field, which could lessen Chicago’s advantage against Arrighetti. That’s why I’m not asking the White Sox to win by multiple runs. I just want them to win, backed by the better starting-pitcher matchup, their strong home play, and their deeper late-game relief.

White Sox ML-130
CONF
64%
MLB8:05 PM

Mariners @ Rangers

The roof is closed at Globe Life Field, and this division opener is priced almost like a coin flip even though Seattle has a clear starting-pitching edge. I’m taking Seattle to win because Bryce Miller is the part of this matchup I trust most. He has been far better than MacKenzie Gore at preventing runs, limiting baserunners, and avoiding hard contact. Gore has pitched much better at home, while Miller has been a little less dominant on the road, so I’m backing Seattle only to win rather than asking for a bigger margin. Even with that location difference, Miller has been much tougher on hitters from both sides of the plate. Seattle’s lineup also leans heavily toward left-handed and switch-hitting bats. Gore has been hit hard in a couple of his recent starts, while Miller recently shut out the Angels over a long outing. Texas still has real advantages. The Rangers have been the better hitting team overall, have scored more lately, and have gotten better work from their closer. Seattle has also struggled away from home. That keeps my confidence in check, but I only need Seattle to win. I believe Miller gives them the better chance to control the game before the relief pitchers take over, and that starting-pitching edge is enough for me at this price.

Mariners ML-116
CONF
61%
MLB8:10 PM

Athletics @ Twins

Warm weather and a steady wind toward left field should help the hitters, and both starting pitchers can be vulnerable. Minnesota has the clearer matchup advantage, but the price is too high for me to trust the Twins for the entire game. Zebby Matthews has struggled overall and was hit hard in each of his last three starts, including one especially short outing. His main fastball has been punished, and he gives up harder contact than Jacob Lopez. Oakland has also been scoring more lately. The Athletics have lost plenty of recent games, but this lineup is producing enough to put pressure on Matthews and Minnesota’s tired relief pitchers. Lopez is the risk because right-handed hitters have done serious damage against him, and Minnesota’s lineup is loaded with right-handed and switch hitters. Still, his underlying performance has been better than his results, and he looked sharper in his latest start. Minnesota leaned heavily on its relief pitchers in Thursday’s extra-long game, while Oakland had the day off and has its best late-game pitchers rested. I’m taking the Athletics to win outright for the better payout rather than paying extra for a one-run cushion.

Athletics ML+122
CONF
58%
MLB8:15 PM

Reds @ Cardinals

Friday night’s opener starts with the pitchers. I trust Dustin May more than Rhett Lowder, especially with May at home and Lowder struggling badly on the road. Both were hit hard in their latest outings, but May’s overall body of work gives St. Louis the steadier base. The matchup also favors the Cardinals’ lineup. Lowder has had major trouble with left-handed hitters, and St. Louis is loading up with left-handed bats. Alec Burleson has been scorching hot and has handled right-handed pitching very well. May has been much tougher on right-handed hitters, which makes Cincinnati’s path more difficult. St. Louis has also controlled the season series, backing up what I already see in the pitching matchup. Cincinnati has played better lately and comes in rested, so I’m not asking St. Louis to win by multiple runs. But I trust the Cardinals more to protect a late lead, with Riley O’Brien pitching better than Emilio Pagán, and St. Louis has also been the cleaner defensive team. The price is steep, but the better starter, favorable lineup matchup, and more reliable late-game options make the choice clear. I’m backing St. Louis to win.

St. Louis Cardinals ML-152
CONF
64%
MLB10:15 PM

Angels @ Giants

Friday night at Oracle Park has the wind blowing toward center as two struggling teams return from an off day. The Angels start Grayson Rodriguez, while the Giants go with Logan Webb. I’m backing San Francisco to win, but I’m not asking the Giants to win by two or more runs. Webb has pitched much better than Rodriguez. San Francisco also has several left-handed hitters facing Rodriguez, who has struggled badly against lefties. The Angels are using mostly right-handed hitters, and Webb has been very good against them. With the wind blowing out, it also helps that Webb allows less hard contact and gets more ground balls, while Rodriguez gives up harder contact and more balls in the air. My concern is that San Francisco has struggled to close out tight games during its losing streak, while the Angels’ relief pitchers have been sharp lately. That’s why I’m avoiding the bigger margin. Still, Webb usually pitches deeper into games than Rodriguez, which should keep the Giants from relying as much on their relief pitchers. San Francisco has also played better at home than the Angels have on the road. I’ll take the Giants to win and leave the margin alone.

Giants ML-162
CONF
66%

Player props

32
MLB · Rockies @ Brewers

Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman comes into tonight's game on a dominant offensive run, batting .333 with a 1.179 OPS over his last 15 days and hitting 4 home runs across his last 7 games. As a right-handed hitter facing Brewers left-handed starter Shane Drohan, Goodman's production escalates significantly: he hits .288 with a .929 OPS against lefties this season (8 HR in 111 ABs).

OVER 0.5 Hits-165
  • · .333 AVG and 1.179 OPS over last 15 days
  • · .288 AVG and .929 OPS vs LHP (8 HR in 111 ABs)
  • · .282 AVG and .964 OPS on the road (18 HR in 181 ABs)
MLB · Rockies @ Brewers

Christian Yelich

Christian Yelich occupies the leadoff spot for Milwaukee, maximizing his volume (4 to 5 plate appearances) in a favorable matchup against Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano. Sugano has struggled significantly against left-handed batters this season, allowing a .278 AVG, .920 OPS, and 12 home runs in 180 ABs.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-150
  • · Tomoyuki Sugano surrenders .278 AVG and .920 OPS to LHB (12 HR in 180 ABs)
  • · Christian Yelich bats leadoff for Brewers (5.0 R/G team average)
  • · Yelich went 2-for-5 with 2 RBIs (4 HRR) in his last start on July 22
MLB HR · Rockies @ Brewers

Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman is a premier power threat with 31 home runs in 357 ABs on the season. He dominates left-handed pitching, slashing .288 with an OPS of .929 and 8 HRs against southpaws.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+330
  • · 31 HR in 357 AB on season (8.7% HR rate)
  • · .929 OPS and 8 HR vs LHP
  • · 4 HR in last 5 games
MLB HR · Rockies @ Brewers

Jake Bauers

Tomoyuki Sugano exhibits a severe platoon weakness against left-handed batters, surrendering a .278 AVG, .920 OPS, and 12 HR in 180 ABs to LHBs this season alongside a 13.7% Barrel% allowed and 44.4% Hard-hit%. Sugano has given up 8 home runs over his last 5 starts, surrendering at least one HR in each of those 5 outings. Jake Bauers brings 18 home runs in 313 ABs on the season and gets a prime home matchup against a starter giving up home runs at an alarming rate to lefties. At +310 odds (24.4% break-even threshold), the matchup dynamics favor a long ball.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+310
  • · 18 HR in 313 AB on season
  • · Sugano surrenders .920 OPS and 12 HR in 180 AB to LHB
  • · Sugano allowed 8 HR in last 5 starts (at least 1 HR in 5 straight)
MLB · Cubs @ Pirates

Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales comes into tonight's game as Pittsburgh's hottest hitter, batting .385 over his last 7 games and .333 over his last 10 games. Over his last 5 games, he has cleared 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs in 4 outings, accumulating 8 hits, 6 runs, and 2 RBIs.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-125
  • · Break-even probability: 55.6% (Odds: -125)
  • · Batting .385 (10-for-26) over last 7 games and .333 (13-for-39) over last 10 games
  • · Recorded 2, 2, 1, 2, and 1 hits with 6 runs scored in last 5 games
MLB · Cubs @ Pirates

Michael Busch

Michael Busch has been extremely consistent at the plate, hitting .333 (14-for-42) over his last 10 games and recording at least 1 hit in 9 of those 10 starts. Batting 3rd in Chicago's order guarantees 4 to 5 plate appearances.

OVER 0.5 Hits-182
  • · Break-even probability: 64.5% (Odds: -182)
  • · Batting .333 (14-for-42) over last 10 games with hits in 9 of last 10
  • · Recorded 1, 1, 1, 3, and 1 hits over his last 5 games
MLB · Royals @ Tigers

Dillon Dingler

Dillon Dingler is locked in at the plate, going 9-for-15 (.600 AVG) with 3 HR, 2 doubles, 6 RBI, and 6 runs scored across his last 4 games. His rolling 7-day splits sit at a massive .440 AVG (11-for-25) with a 1.453 OPS.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-150
  • · 9-for-15 (.600 AVG) with 3 HR, 2 2B, 6 RBI, 6 R over last 4 games
  • · .876 season OPS and 22 HR, 66 RBI in 350 AB
  • · Batting 3rd vs Beck Way (opener) and Noah Cameron (7.97 ERA in L7 starts)
MLB · Diamondbacks @ Nationals

Gabriel Moreno

The Gary Special: Stacking Moreno's combined Hits + Runs + RBIs over 1.5 aligns directly with our read on his single-hit prop and Arizona's team run environment. Moreno sits squarely in the 4-spot of a Diamondbacks lineup averaging 8.2 runs per game over their last 5 games.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-146
  • · Moreno has recorded 2+ H+R+RBI in 6 of his last 10 games
  • · Moreno is 3-for-4 with 2 RBIs and 1 run scored in his most recent start
  • · D-backs offense averaging 8.2 runs per game over L5 games facing WSH 5.09 ERA bullpen
MLB · Guardians @ Rays

Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero serves as Tampa Bay's primary offensive engine, posting a .287 AVG, 29 HR, 62 RBI, and a .931 OPS over 102 games. Batting third in the order gives him high-volume opportunities behind Yandy Diaz (.307 AVG) and Jonathan Aranda (.283 AVG).

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-115
  • · Season stats: .287 AVG, 29 HR, 62 RBI, .931 OPS in 102 games
  • · Platoon matchup: Cantillo allows .259 AVG, .760 OPS, and 9 HR to RHB
  • · Recent form: .333 AVG (12-for-36) over his last 10 games
MLB · Dodgers @ Mets

Tommy Edman

Tommy Edman is on a tear at the plate, hitting .421 (8-for-19) over his last 7 days and .394 (13-for-33) over his last 10 games with 8 RBIs. Moving up to the #3 spot in the Dodgers order behind Ohtani and Pages with Max Muncy out, Edman gets prime RBI opportunities.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-147
  • · Hitting .421 (8-for-19) with 1.237 OPS over last 7 days
  • · Moved up to #3 spot in Dodgers order with Muncy out
  • · Facing Sean Manaea who surrenders .283 AVG and .874 OPS to RHB
MLB · Padres @ Marlins

Griffin Conine

1. THE PICK: Griffin Conine OVER 0.5 Hits (-155)

OVER 0.5 Hits-155
  • · Requires >61% break-even probability at -155 odds
  • · Conine: .311 AVG and .985 OPS at home; .289 AVG and .981 OPS vs RHP
  • · Padres SP Germán Márquez: .292 AVG and .990 OPS allowed to LHBs
MLB · Padres @ Marlins

Ty France

1. THE PICK: Ty France OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+148)

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+148
  • · Requires >40% break-even probability at +148 odds
  • · France: 15-for-39 (.385 AVG) with 6 HR, 13 RBI in L10 games
  • · France away splits: .282 AVG, .913 OPS, 10 HR in 131 AB
MLB · Blue Jays @ Red Sox

Willson Contreras

Contreras is locked in at the plate, carrying a .421 AVG (8-for-19) over his last 7 games and a .400 AVG (12-for-30) with 3 HR and 10 RBI over his last 10 games. His season totals sit at a robust .293 AVG, 22 HR, and .948 OPS across 331 ABs. Facing Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage (3.78 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), Contreras has posted a .295 AVG and .927 OPS with 15 HR against right-handed pitching this season. Playing at Fenway Park (76°F, wind 8 mph out to LF), Contreras's hard-hit profile sets up ideally to collect multiple bases.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+124
  • · L10 games: .400 AVG (12-for-30), 3 HR, 10 RBI
  • · L7 games: .421 AVG (8-for-19), 2 HR, 1.384 OPS
  • · Season splits vs RHP: .295 AVG, 15 HR, .927 OPS in 244 ABs
MLB · Blue Jays @ Red Sox

Willson Contreras

Batting clean-up (4th) in a Red Sox offense averaging 5.4 runs per game over their last 10 games, Contreras is heavily insulated by context. He is surrounded by Ceddanne Rafaela (.276 L7) and Wilyer Abreu (4 HR in L7) ahead of him, and Masataka Yoshida (.300 L7) behind him. Contreras has generated multi-category production consistently, accumulating 5 RBI and 5 runs in his last 7 games alongside an 8-for-19 hitting display (.421 AVG).

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-120
  • · L7 games: 5 RBI, 5 Runs scored, 8 hits in 19 AB (.421 AVG)
  • · Clean-up hitter in Red Sox offense averaging 5.4 R/G over last 10 games
  • · Home splits: .324 AVG, 12 HR, 1.029 OPS at Fenway Park in 170 ABs
MLB · Astros @ White Sox

Yordan Alvarez

**THE PICK:** Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-129) **MATCHUP:** Facing right-hander Davis Martin (RHP). **THE KEY FACTOR:** Alvarez is in phenomenal current form, batting .514 (18-for-35) with 5 home runs, 10 RBIs, and a 1.089 season OPS over his last 10 games. He has recorded 2 or more total bases in 8 of his last 10 starts.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-129
  • · .514 BA (18-for-35) with 5 HR in last 10 games
  • · Cleared 1.5 Total Bases in 8 of last 10 games
  • · Facing Davis Martin who allows a 44.0% Hard-Hit rate and 4.37 xERA
MLB · Astros @ White Sox

Jeremy Pena

**THE PICK:** Jeremy Pena OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120) **MATCHUP:** Facing right-hander Davis Martin (RHP). **THE KEY FACTOR:** Peña is batting leadoff for Houston and is on an exceptional run, hitting .471 (8-for-17) with a 1.526 OPS and 3 home runs over his last 7 games, and .359 (14-for-39) over his last 10 games. White Sox starter Davis Martin shows a distinct split vulnerability against right-handed hitters, allowing a .271 batting average and .685 OPS (compared to .244 vs. LHBs) alongside a 44.0% Hard-Hit rate allowed. **PARK/WEATHER CHECK:** Guaranteed Rate Field weather calls for 77°F with an 8 mph wind blowing in from right field. As a right-handed hitter pulling balls to left field, Peña is unaffected by the RF wind direction. **VOLUME FLOOR:** Batting 1st in the Astros order guarantees maximum plate appearance volume (5 expected PAs), giving him ample opportunity to collect multiple hits or an extra-base hit. **THE RISK:** Peña experiences regression from his recent 10-game surge toward his .242 season average baseline, or Martin relies on his sinker/cutter to generate early-count groundballs.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+120
  • · .471 BA (8-for-17) with 3 HR over last 7 games
  • · .359 BA (14-for-39) over last 10 games
  • · Davis Martin allows a .271 BA to right-handed batters
MLB · Yankees @ Phillies

Trea Turner

Trea Turner is riding a massive recent hot streak at the plate, slashing .400 (8-for-20) with 3 HR, 6 RBI, and a 1.428 OPS over his last 7 days, along with 4 HR and 8 RBI over his last 10 games. As Philadelphia's leadoff hitter, Turner will receive maximum opportunity with 4 to 5 plate appearances.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-115
  • · L7 days: .400 AVG (8-for-20), 3 HR, 6 RBI, 1.428 OPS
  • · L10 games: 10-for-37 (.270 AVG), 4 HR, 8 RBI
  • · Leadoff spot guarantees 4-5 plate appearances
MLB · Braves @ Orioles

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been locked in since joining the lineup, collecting 6 hits in 16 at-bats (.375 AVG) with 2 home runs over 4 games, recording total base counts of 0, 6, 5, and 1. Tonight he faces right-hander Grant Holmes, who allows a 42.8% hard-hit rate and a .708 OPS to right-handed hitters.

OVER 0.5 Total Bases-170
  • · Christian Encarnacion-Strand is batting .375 (6-for-16) with 2 HR in 4 games
  • · Recorded 0, 6, 5, and 1 total bases across his 4 games this season
  • · Grant Holmes allows a .240 AVG, .708 OPS, and 42.8% hard-hit rate to RHB
MLB · Mariners @ Rangers

Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor is swinging the hottest bat in Seattle's lineup, batting .351 (13-for-37) over his last 10 games and .391 (9-for-23) over his last 7 games. Naylor has recorded a hit in 9 of his last 10 games entering tonight. The matchup against Rangers starter MacKenzie Gore is particularly favorable due to Gore's reverse platoon split—Gore has allowed a .280 batting average and .794 OPS to left-handed hitters across 100 ABs this season. Batting 5th in the Mariners' lineup, Naylor will receive 4+ plate appearances, providing a strong volume floor to cash Over 0.5 Hits.

OVER 0.5 Hits-200
  • · Hitting .351 (13-for-37) over his last 10 games and .391 (9-for-23) over his last 7 games
  • · Has recorded at least 1 hit in 9 of his last 10 games
  • · MacKenzie Gore allows a .280 AVG and .794 OPS to left-handed hitters
MLB · Athletics @ Twins

Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton is set up in a prime spot against Athletics starter Jacob Lopez. Lopez carries severe platoon splits, giving up a .307 AVG, .931 OPS, and 9 home runs in 166 at-bats to right-handed batters this season (compared to .225 AVG and .671 OPS against lefties).

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-125
  • · Jacob Lopez surrenders .307 AVG / .931 OPS and 9 HR to RHB (166 AB)
  • · 25 HR on season (.899 OPS) with guaranteed top-of-order PA volume
  • · Target Field 80°F weather with 14 mph wind blowing out to LF
MLB · Athletics @ Twins

Jacob Wilson

Jacob Wilson is currently the hottest hitter in Oakland's lineup, carrying a 10-game hitting streak into tonight's contest. Over his last 7 games, Wilson is batting .370 (10-for-27) with 3 HR, 6 RBI, and a 1.097 OPS, and over his last 15 games he is hitting .405 (17-for-42).

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+104
  • · 10-game hitting streak; .405 AVG (17-for-42) over L15 games
  • · 3 HR in last 5 games; .370 AVG / 1.097 OPS in L7
  • · Zebby Matthews yields 12.5% Barrel% and 38.9% Hard-Hit%; Twins bullpen used 82 pitches yesterday
MLB · Reds @ Cardinals

Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz is swinging a red-hot bat, hitting .304 with 2 HRs and a 1.060 OPS over his last 7 days (.293 with 3 HRs in L10). He faces Dustin May, who has struggled severely over his last 5 starts (9.92 ERA in 16.1 IP) and allows a .782 OPS to left-handed hitters compared to .582 vs righties. As Cincinnati's leadoff hitter, De La Cruz will get maximum opportunities to punish May's elevated walk and hit counts.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+125
  • · .304 AVG, 2 HR, 1.060 OPS over last 7 days
  • · Cardinals SP Dustin May has a 9.92 ERA in his last 5 starts
  • · Dustin May allows a .782 OPS to left-handed hitters compared to .582 vs righties
MLB HR · Guardians @ Rays

Junior Caminero

1. THE PICK: Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390)

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390
  • · 29 home runs in 102 games season total (0.284 HR/game rate)
  • · Break-even win probability at +390 odds is 20.4%
  • · Joey Cantillo has allowed 9 HRs and a .760 OPS to right-handed hitters
MLB HR · Astros @ White Sox

Yordan Alvarez

1. **THE PICK:** Yordan Alvarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+230) 2. **MATCHUP:** Yordan Alvarez (LHB) vs. Davis Martin (RHP) 3.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+230
  • · Season: 34 HR in 102 GP (33.3% HR/game rate)
  • · 26 HR vs RHP with 1.169 OPS vs righties
  • · +230 odds require >30.3% break-even probability
MLB HR · Athletics @ Twins

Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton faces left-hander Jacob Lopez, who displays severe platoon vulnerabilities against right-handed hitters this season (.307 AVG, .931 OPS, 9 HR allowed in 166 ABs). Buxton has hit 25 home runs across 78 games played, representing a 32.05% per-game home run frequency that clears the 31.25% break-even threshold required by +220 odds. Furthermore, Target Field features a 13-14 mph wind blowing directly out toward left field in muggy 79-82°F weather, providing ideal conditions for Buxton's flyball profile to clear the wall. Batting second in Minnesota's order guarantees 4 to 5 plate appearances.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+220
  • · 25 HR in 78 games played (32.05% game rate vs 31.25% break-even at +220 odds)
  • · Opposing LHP Jacob Lopez allows .307 AVG, .931 OPS, and 9 HR in 166 ABs to righties
  • · Target Field 13-14 mph wind blowing straight out to left field in 79-82°F weather
MLB HR · Mariners @ Rangers

Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez enters Friday's divisional matchup with significant platoon and matchup leverage facing Rangers starter MacKenzie Gore. Rodriguez has crushed left-handed pitching this season, posting a .856 OPS and 7 home runs in limited platoon opportunities.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+380
  • · Julio Rodriguez .856 OPS / 7 HR vs LHP this season
  • · MacKenzie Gore 12 HR allowed to RHB (323 AB) / 6 HR allowed in L4 starts
  • · Gore allows 44.1% Hard-Hit% and 8.8% Barrel%
MLB HR · Athletics @ Twins

Shea Langeliers

Shea Langeliers has launched 23 home runs in 92 games this season (a 25.0% per-game rate), surpassing the 23.09% break-even probability needed for +333 odds. He faces Zebby Matthews, who has struggled with contact quality, allowing a high 12.5% Barrel% and 38.9% Hard-hit% with 15 HR allowed in 70.0 IP. Langeliers enters on a hot streak, hitting .364 (8-for-22) with 2 HR over his last 7 games, and bats 3rd in Oakland's order to secure maximum opportunity volume. Target Field's 13-14 mph crosswind blowing out to left field further elevates his extra-base power potential.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+333
  • · 23 HR in 92 games played (25.00% game rate vs 23.09% break-even at +333 odds)
  • · Opposing SP Zebby Matthews allows 12.5% Barrel% and 15 HR in 70.0 IP
  • · 8-for-22 (.364 AVG) with 2 HR over his last 7 games
MLB HR · Dodgers @ Mets

Juan Soto

1. THE PICK: Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400)

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+400
  • · 21 HR in 83 games (25.3% per-game HR rate vs 20.0% break-even required at +400)
  • · Opposing starter Roki Sasaki has allowed 10 HR to LHB in 185 ABs with 12.0% Barrel% allowed
  • · Batting 2nd with 4-5 expected PAs in 77°F weather with 7-9 mph wind blowing out to LF
MLB HR · Astros @ White Sox

Colson Montgomery

1. **THE PICK:** Colson Montgomery OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300) 2. **MATCHUP:** Colson Montgomery (LHB) vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP) 3.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+300
  • · Season: 24 HR in 96 GP (25.0% HR/game rate)
  • · Opposing SP Spencer Arrighetti allows .784 OPS and 8 HR to LHBs (174 AB)
  • · +300 odds require >25.0% break-even probability
MLB HR · Mariners @ Rangers

Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson has been the most explosive home run threat in the Rangers lineup, slugging 17 home runs in 262 at-bats on the season (averaging 1 home run every 15.4 at-bats). Pederson comes into Friday on a high-efficiency power surge, going 5-for-11 with 2 home runs and a 1.545 OPS over his last 7 days, and 3 home runs over his last 15 days.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+332
  • · Joc Pederson 17 HR in 262 AB (1 HR per 15.4 AB season rate)
  • · Pederson L7: 2 HR, 5-for-11 (.455 AVG), 1.545 OPS
  • · Pederson L15: 3 HR, 7-for-20 (.350 AVG), 1.309 OPS
MLB HR · Dodgers @ Mets

Shohei Ohtani

1. THE PICK: Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360)

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+360
  • · 22 HR in 98 games (22.4% per-game HR rate vs 21.7% break-even required at +360)
  • · 9 HR and .883 OPS against left-handed pitching on the season
  • · Leadoff hitter with guaranteed 4-5 PAs for a Dodgers offense averaging 5.2 R/G
MLB · Angels @ Giants

Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez leads the National League with a .320 batting average (122 hits in 381 ABs) and serves as San Francisco's primary leadoff hitter, guaranteeing 4 to 5 plate appearances. Angels starter Grayson Rodriguez carries an 8.23 ERA and 1.77 WHIP, but his most drastic vulnerability is against left-handed batters, who are hitting .366 with a 1.043 OPS against him over 82 ABs. With Rodriguez also surrendering a 55.0% hard-hit rate and a 10.0% barrel rate, Arraez's elite bat-to-ball skills set up ideally for a multi-hit night at plus odds. Specific risk: Arraez is 0-for-10 in his last 3 games, and if Rodriguez exits early, the Angels' bullpen could limit him in late-game plate appearances.

OVER 1.5 Hits+170
  • · Leads NL with .320 batting average (122 hits in 381 ABs)
  • · Grayson Rodriguez surrenders .366 AVG and 1.043 OPS to LHB (82 ABs)
  • · Rodriguez holds an 8.23 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, and 55.0% hard-hit rate allowed

Hub research

120

Graded results

47

Games

  • L

    Brewers -1.5 -124

    MLB · 5-2

  • W

    Kansas City Royals +1.5 +105

    MLB · 1-2

  • W

    Yankees ML +116

    MLB · 1-0

  • L

    Pirates ML -110

    MLB · 3-2

  • W

    Diamondbacks ML -124

    MLB · 3-2

  • W

    Dodgers ML -130

    MLB · 4-2

  • W

    Rays ML -138

    MLB · 3-11

  • L

    Miami Marlins ML -126

    MLB · 4-2

  • L

    Orioles ML -132

    MLB · 7-6

  • L

    Blue Jays ML +108

    MLB · 4-6

  • W

    Athletics ML +122

    MLB · 2-0

  • L

    St. Louis Cardinals ML -152

    MLB · 4-2

  • L

    Mariners ML -116

    MLB · 4-5

  • L

    White Sox ML -130

    MLB · 9-5

  • W

    Giants ML -162

    MLB · 6-7

Props

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    Byron Buxton · over

    Athletics @ Twins · Actual 0

  • L

    Byron Buxton · over

    Athletics @ Twins · Actual 0

  • W

    Christian Encarnacion-Strand · over

    Braves @ Orioles · Actual 6

  • W

    Christian Yelich · over

    Rockies @ Brewers · Actual 3

  • L

    Colson Montgomery · over

    Astros @ White Sox · Actual 0

  • L

    Dillon Dingler · over

    Royals @ Tigers · Actual 0

  • L

    Elly De La Cruz · over

    Reds @ Cardinals · Actual 1

  • W

    Gabriel Moreno · over

    Diamondbacks @ Nationals · Actual 3

  • W

    Griffin Conine · over

    Padres @ Marlins · Actual 1

  • W

    Hunter Goodman · over

    Rockies @ Brewers · Actual 1

  • L

    Hunter Goodman · over

    Rockies @ Brewers · Actual 0

  • L

    Jacob Wilson · over

    Athletics @ Twins · Actual 0

  • L

    Jake Bauers · over

    Rockies @ Brewers · Actual 0

  • W

    Jeremy Pena · over

    Astros @ White Sox · Actual 3

  • L

    Joc Pederson · over

    Mariners @ Rangers · Actual 0

  • L

    Josh Naylor · over

    Mariners @ Rangers · Actual 0

  • L

    Juan Soto · over

    Dodgers @ Mets · Actual 0

  • L

    Julio Rodriguez · over

    Mariners @ Rangers · Actual 0

  • L

    Junior Caminero · over

    Guardians @ Rays · Actual 0

  • W

    Junior Caminero · over

    Guardians @ Rays · Actual 2

  • W

    Luis Arraez · over

    Angels @ Giants · Actual 3

  • L

    Michael Busch · over

    Cubs @ Pirates · Actual 0

  • W

    Nick Gonzales · over

    Cubs @ Pirates · Actual 2

  • L

    Shea Langeliers · over

    Athletics @ Twins · Actual 0

  • L

    Shohei Ohtani · over

    Dodgers @ Mets · Actual 0

  • L

    Tommy Edman · over

    Dodgers @ Mets · Actual 0

  • L

    Trea Turner · over

    Yankees @ Phillies · Actual 0

  • W

    Ty France · over

    Padres @ Marlins · Actual 3

  • L

    Willson Contreras · over

    Blue Jays @ Red Sox · Actual 1

  • L

    Willson Contreras · over

    Blue Jays @ Red Sox · Actual 1

  • L

    Yordan Alvarez · over

    Astros @ White Sox · Actual 0

  • L

    Yordan Alvarez · over

    Astros @ White Sox · Actual 1