MLB · Fri, Jul 24 · 6:45 PM

Yankees at Phillies

O/U 7.5 · RL Phillies -1.5 · Citizens Bank Park

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Phillies· +116

Friday night at Citizens Bank Park brings two high-end starters into warm, hitter-friendly conditions, with Cam Schlittler facing Jesús Luzardo in the series opener. Philadelphia owns home field and the favorite’s tag, but the plus-money side is where my read lands: Yankees moneyline at +116. Schlittler has earned trust with a 2.20 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a 1.18 road ERA across 76 innings. Luzardo is dangerous in his own right—his 2.91 xERA is better than his 3.43 ERA—but tonight’s handedness creates a measurable challenge. Right-handed hitters have produced a .729 OPS against him, compared with .425 for left-handed hitters, and New York starts five right-handed bats plus switch-hitter Jasson Dominguez. Paul Goldschmidt’s 1.064 OPS against left-handed pitching gives that alignment a proven anchor. Philadelphia has a legitimate counterargument with Trea Turner and Alec Bohm running hot, while Schlittler’s 3.03 xERA sits above his 2.20 ERA. That keeps this from being a runaway call, but it does not justify making New York the underdog in my book. The full-team profile breaks the tie. The Yankees are 31-22 on the road and 7-3 over their last 10; the Phillies are 27-25 at home and 5-5 over the same span. New York’s +135 run differential compared with Philadelphia’s +3 does not decide one baseball game, but it confirms how differently these clubs have performed across the season. The Yankees also carry the stronger relief number, a 3.38 ERA against Philadelphia’s 4.27, and both groups enter after an off-day. My read is that Schlittler keeps New York attached to this game long enough for its platoon alignment and deeper relief unit to matter. I’m not paying -192 for the protection of 1.5 runs when the moneyline already offers plus money. The ticket is Yankees ML +116.

The pick & result

Published pick: Yankees ML +116
Published odds: +116
Result: Won
Final score: 1-0

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Friday night at Citizens Bank Park features two strong starters in warm weather that should help the hitters. Cam Schlittler faces Jesús Luzardo, and while Philadelphia is favored at home, I’m taking the Yankees to win at underdog odds.

Schlittler has earned my trust with excellent run prevention, limited baserunners, and even better work on the road. Luzardo is dangerous, and his underlying results are stronger than his overall numbers, but right-handed hitters have handled him much better than lefties. New York brings a right-handed-heavy lineup, plus switch-hitter Jasson Dominguez, and Paul Goldschmidt has crushed left-handed pitching. Trea Turner and Alec Bohm are swinging well for Philadelphia, and Schlittler’s underlying numbers suggest he has not been quite as dominant as his results. That makes this close, but I still do not believe New York should be the underdog.

The Yankees have been stronger on the road and are playing better lately than the Phillies have at home. Their much better season-long scoring margin also shows the gap between these teams, and New York has the stronger relief pitching. Both bullpens are rested after a day off. I expect Schlittler to keep the Yankees close long enough for their right-handed bats and deeper bullpen to make the difference. I’m not paying a steep price just to get extra run protection. My pick is the Yankees to win.

The full analysis

Schlittler has earned trust with a 2.20 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a 1.18 road ERA across 76 innings. Luzardo is dangerous in his own right—his 2.91 xERA is better than his 3.43 ERA—but tonight’s handedness creates a measurable challenge. Right-handed hitters have produced a .729 OPS against him, compared with .425 for left-handed hitters, and New York starts five right-handed bats plus switch-hitter Jasson Dominguez. Paul Goldschmidt’s 1.064 OPS against left-handed pitching gives that alignment a proven anchor. Philadelphia has a legitimate counterargument with Trea Turner and Alec Bohm running hot, while Schlittler’s 3.03 xERA sits above his 2.20 ERA. That keeps this from being a runaway call, but it does not justify making New York the underdog in my book.

The full-team profile breaks the tie. The Yankees are 31-22 on the road and 7-3 over their last 10; the Phillies are 27-25 at home and 5-5 over the same span. New York’s +135 run differential compared with Philadelphia’s +3 does not decide one baseball game, but it confirms how differently these clubs have performed across the season. The Yankees also carry the stronger relief number, a 3.38 ERA against Philadelphia’s 4.27, and both groups enter after an off-day. My read is that Schlittler keeps New York attached to this game long enough for its platoon alignment and deeper relief unit to matter. I’m not paying -192 for the protection of 1.5 runs when the moneyline already offers plus money. The ticket is Yankees ML +116.

Injuries noted

Phillies: [KNOWN] Johan Rojas (Center Fielder) — Elbow (Right): Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports. (Jun 25 — 29d ago) [KNOWN] Adolis Garcia (RF) — Lat (Right): The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports. (Jun 24 — 30d ago) [KNOWN] Lou Trivino (RP) — Back (Right): The Phillies selected Trivino's contract from Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday. (Jul 8 — 15d ago) [KNOWN] Tanner Banks (RP) — Forearm (Left): The Phillies placed Banks on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a left forearm strain. (Jul 9 — 15d ago) [NEW] Brad Keller (RP) — Elbow (Right): The Phillies moved Keller (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday. (Jul 24 — 0d ago) [NEW] Garrett Stubbs (C) — Wrist (Left): The Phillies placed Stubbs on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to July 18, due to left wrist inflammation, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports. (Jul 21 — 3d ago) [NEW] Rafael Marchan (C) — Knee (Left): The Phillies placed Marchan (knee) on the 10-day injured list Friday, retroactive to July 23. (Jul 24 — 0d ago) Yankees: [NEW] Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter) — Calf (Right): Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters Monday that Stanton has "no timeline" to start a minor-league rehab assignment, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Jul 20 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Aaron Judge (RF) — Ribs (Right): Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that a specialist determined that Judge (ribs) is not yet ready to resume baseball activities, Erik Boland of Newsday reports. (Jul 18 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Carlos Rodon (SP) — Elbow (Left): Rodon (elbow) received a second round of injections after throwing about 10 pitches off a mound Friday and could progress to a full bullpen session this week, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. (Jul 19 — 5d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Jesus Luzardo: 0.69 ERA over his last 3 starts
0.69
The last 3 times out: 13 innings, 1 earned runs, 19 Ks. That 0.69 ERA sits 2.74 runs under his 3.43 season number.

PLATOON EDGE

Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
1.064
Paul Goldschmidt's vs. Left line (1.064 OPS, 104 AB) sits well above his .597 mark the other way (151 AB). Tonight's starter Jesus Luzardo throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
.998
Bryce Harper's vs. Right line (.998 OPS, 221 AB) sits well above his .635 mark the other way (142 AB). Tonight's starter Cam Schlittler throws RHP, the hand he hits best.

HEAT CHECK

Trea Turner: 1.012 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.012
Over the last 15 days (37 PA) he is at a 1.012 OPS, up 0.328 on his .684 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

COOLING OFF

Kyle Schwarber: .583 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Cam Schlittler
.583
Kyle Schwarber's .583 OPS over the last 15 days (37 PA) trails his .909 season mark, down 0.326. Tonight he draws RHP Cam Schlittler — his weaker side: a .880 OPS vs RHP across 226 AB.

BALLPARK

Jesus Luzardo owns a 6.12 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 1.38 everywhere else
6.12
Across 9 games (50 IP) at Citizens Bank Park, Jesus Luzardo has a 6.12 ERA against 1.38 at his other parks (65.3 IP). Hitters bat .258 off him here.

STREAK

NYY games have gone UNDER 6 straight
U6
New York Yankees games have stayed UNDER 6 straight — just 6.5 runs a night against an average line of 9.5. Tonight's number sits at 8.

TEAM RECORD

Phillies 7-0 in Jesus Luzardo's last 7 starts
7-0
Phillies are 7-0 in Jesus Luzardo's last 7 starts this season — winners of his last 7 in a row. He starts tonight.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored July 24, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, caesars, draftkings, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
TREA TURNERH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -115
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Trea Turner is riding a massive recent hot streak at the plate, slashing .400 (8-for-20) with 3 HR, 6 RBI, and a 1.428 OPS over his last 7 days, along with 4 HR and 8 RBI over his last 10 games. As Philadelphia's leadoff hitter, Turner will receive maximum opportunity with 4 to 5 plate appearances. Citizens Bank Park tonight offers ideal conditions (82°F, 7-9 mph wind blowing out to LF) for right-handed power hitters pulling the ball. Facing Cam Schlittler's high-velocity four-seamer (97.8 mph), Turner's elite bat speed sets him up well to collect multiple combined hits, runs, or RBIs. At -115 odds (requiring >53% break-even probability), Turner's current volume floor and production trajectory make the OVER on 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs a high-value edge.
Trea Turner
H+R+RBI over 1.5
-115 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Philadelphia Phillies
Trea Turner is riding a massive recent hot streak at the plate, slashing .400 (8-for-20) with 3 HR, 6 RBI, and a 1.428 OPS over his last 7 days, along with 4 HR and 8 RBI over his last 10 games. As Philadelphia's leadoff hitter, Turner will receive maximum opportunity with 4 to 5 plate appearances.
Citizens Bank Park tonight offers ideal conditions (82°F, 7-9 mph wind blowing out to LF) for right-handed power hitters pulling the ball. Facing Cam Schlittler's high-velocity four-seamer (97.8 mph), Turner's elite bat speed sets him up well to collect multiple combined hits, runs, or RBIs.
At -115 odds (requiring >53% break-even probability), Turner's current volume floor and production trajectory make the OVER on 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs a high-value edge.

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