Cubs at Pirates
O/U 8 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park
Pirates ML-110
CONF 59%
LLostFinal 3-2
The read
Friday night at PNC Park looks close to even between division rivals. It is a pitcher-friendly park, with a light wind blowing in from right field. I’m backing Pittsburgh because Jared Jones’ pitching and the Pirates’ confirmed lineup both give them an edge.
Jones has pitched better than his basic results suggest, while Matthew Boyd has pitched worse than his. Jones also allows fewer runners, gets more strikeouts, and gives up less hard contact. Their basic run-prevention numbers look similar, but the deeper picture favors Jones.
Pittsburgh can load its lineup with right-handed and switch hitters, which matters because right-handed batters have done much better against Boyd than left-handed batters. The Pirates have also hit slightly better than Chicago this season. The concern is that Chicago has several hitters who can bat left-handed against Jones, and the Cubs have played cleaner defense. That is why I’m taking Pittsburgh simply to win, rather than asking for a bigger margin. At this nearly even price, Jones and Pittsburgh’s lineup matchup are enough for me to back the home team.
The full analysis
Friday night at PNC Park brings a near pick’em between division rivals, with Jared Jones and Matthew Boyd working in a pitcher-friendly setting and an 8 mph wind coming in from right field. In a game priced this tightly, I’m backing Pittsburgh because the starting-pitching indicators and confirmed lineup construction point in the same direction.
Jones has a 4.05 ERA, but his 3.31 xERA suggests he has pitched better than that surface number. Boyd’s 4.15 ERA comes with a 4.71 xERA, indicating the opposite. Jones also owns the better WHIP, 1.10 to 1.21, and the stronger strikeout rate, 10.8 K/9 to 8.8. The quality-of-contact numbers strengthen the distinction: Jones has allowed a 6.8% barrel rate and 38.8% hard-hit rate, while Boyd is at 10.1% and 45.3%. Their ERAs look almost identical; the underlying profiles do not.
Pittsburgh can send seven right-handed or switch hitters to the plate against Boyd. Right-handed batters have produced a .260 average and .739 OPS against him with five home runs, compared with a .200 average and .547 OPS for left-handed hitters. The Pirates have also averaged 5.3 runs with a .763 OPS this season, against Chicago’s 5.1 runs and .751 OPS. Chicago has four hitters who can bat from the left side against Jones, whose .786 OPS allowed to left-handed batters is the primary danger, and the Cubs own the cleaner defense with a .989 fielding percentage and 40 errors compared with Pittsburgh’s .983 and 60. Those concerns are why I want the moneyline rather than requiring Pittsburgh to win by multiple runs. At -110, Jones’ stronger profile and Pittsburgh’s right-handed matchup against Boyd are enough for me to put my money on the home club.
Injuries noted
Pirates: [KNOWN] Oneil Cruz (CF) — Hand (Left): The Pirates transferred Cruz (hand) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 18 — 6d ago) [NEW] Chris Devenski (RP) — Illness (Not Specified): Devenski (illness) was sent to the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment. (Jul 21 — 3d ago) [NEW] Spencer Horwitz (1B) — Hamstring (Left): Horwitz (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton on Tuesday, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 20 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Evan Sisk (RP) — Elbow (Left): Sisk was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 4 — 20d ago) [NEW] Endy Rodriguez (C) — Lower Body (Left): Rodriguez (glute) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Indianapolis on Friday, Aiden Stepansky of MLB.com reports. (Jul 24 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Konnor Griffin (SS) — Finger (Left): The Pirates transferred Griffin (finger) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 11 — 13d ago) [NEW] Rafael Flores Jr. (C) — Concussion: The Pirates placed Flores on the 7-day concussion injured list Friday. (Jul 24 — 0d ago) Cubs: [KNOWN] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 77d ago) [KNOWN] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 77d ago) [KNOWN] Matt Shaw (RF) — Hand (Left): Shaw is still feeling discomfort related to his left hand sprain and has yet to resume swinging a bat, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. (Jul 18 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Daniel Palencia (RP) — Elbow (Right): Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Palencia (elbow) is hopeful to return to the Cubs' bullpen in mid-August, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports. (Jul 17 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Hoby Milner (RP) — Abdomen (Not Specified): Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Milner (abdomen) will likely return from the injured list sometime around Aug. 1, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports. (Jul 17 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Ben Brown (RP) — Neck (Not Specified): Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Brown (neck) has begun to increase his activity and has taken part in workouts with plyometric balls, MLB.com reports. (Jul 20 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Edward Cabrera (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that the Cubs expect Cabrera (hamstring) to return from the injured list in the second week of August, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports. (Jul 17 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Riley Martin (RP) — Elbow (Left): The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports. (Jun 21 — 32d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Harvey (Relief Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): Manager Craig Counsell said July 8 that Harvey (triceps/shoulder) has resumed a throwing program at the Cubs' facility in Arizona, but the right-hander remains without a clear timeline for a return from the 60-day injured list, MLB.com reports. (Jul 20 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Ethan Roberts (RP) — Forearm (Right): Roberts (forearm) tossed a perfect inning in a rehab appearance Sunday with Triple-A Iowa. (Jul 20 — 4d ago) [NEW] Phil Maton (RP) — Knee (Right): The Cubs placed Maton on the 15-day injured list Monday with right knee tendinitis, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports. (Jul 20 — 3d ago) [NEW] Trent Thornton (RP) — Heel (Left): Thornton was removed from Monday's game against the Tigers after being struck on the left foot by a comebacker, Mike McGraw of the Chicago Daily Herald reports. (Jul 20 — 3d ago)
Props on this game
2Nick GonzalesOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-125
WActual 2
Nick Gonzales comes into tonight's game as Pittsburgh's hottest hitter, batting .385 over his last 7 games and .333 over his last 10 games. Over his last 5 games, he has cleared 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs in 4 outings, accumulating 8 hits, 6 runs, and 2 RBIs.
Batting second in the Pirates' order maximizes his opportunity share (4-5 expected plate appearances) directly behind leadoff man Jake Mangum and ahead of Bryan Reynolds. Furthermore, Gonzales gets the favorable platoon side against Matthew Boyd, who allows a .260 AVG, .739 OPS, and 5 HR to right-handed hitters (compared to .200 AVG and .547 OPS against lefties).
At -125 odds (55.6% break-even threshold), Gonzales' high baseline volume and top-of-the-order involvement clear the market requirement. The main risk is Boyd pitching a low-volume pitching gem and keeping the top of Pittsburgh's order off base.
Michael BuschOVER 0.5 Hits Hits-182
Not yet graded
Michael Busch has been extremely consistent at the plate, hitting .333 (14-for-42) over his last 10 games and recording at least 1 hit in 9 of those 10 starts. Batting 3rd in Chicago's order guarantees 4 to 5 plate appearances.
Matchup-wise, Pirates starter Jared Jones displays a sharp platoon split: while Jones holds righties to a microscopic .153 AVG and .460 OPS, he surrenders a .253 AVG and .786 OPS with 4 HR to left-handed batters. Busch gets the strong side of that split in his initial 2-3 plate appearances before seeing a Pittsburgh bullpen that has suffered 19 blown saves this season.
At -182 odds (64.5% break-even requirement), Busch's 90% recent hit rate and platoon advantage offer a strong edge. The primary risk is PNC Park's 8 mph breeze coming in from right field or Jones' 98.6 mph fastball generating early strikeouts.
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