Sports Picks Archive — Thursday, July 23, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Braves· +104

A hot afternoon at Truist Park sets the stage for a high-stakes series finale between the San Diego Padres and the Atlanta Braves. While the betting public will lock eyes on Atlanta’s ace Chris Sale, this matchup is far tighter than the heavy moneyline price tag suggests. Two of the first three games in this series have already been decided by a single run, and there is every reason to believe this afternoon’s battle will follow a similarly competitive script. The Padres' offense has been absolutely scorching at the plate, posting an elite .452 xwOBA, a 15.8% barrel rate, and a 48.7% hard-hit rate over their last three games. More importantly, San Diego’s top-of-the-order righties have historically excelled against Sale. Manny Machado has battered the left-hander to the tune of a .355 average and a .993 OPS over 31 career at-bats, while Fernando Tatis Jr. has produced a .333 average and a 1.000 OPS in 12 at-bats against him. While Sale's 2.06 surface ERA is impressive, his 3.31 xERA indicates some positive regression is on the horizon, and this red-hot Padres lineup is fully capable of driving it. On the other side, Kyle Hart's 5.66 ERA is highly misleading. His 3.75 xERA is nearly two full runs lower, and his splitter boasts an outstanding 42.3% whiff rate and a 0.223 xwOBA. Hart can keep the Braves' hitters off-balance, especially since they have zero career experience against him. Even if Hart gets into trouble early, the Padres' offense has the firepower to keep pace against an Atlanta bullpen that has stumbled to a 4.91 xERA over its last 25 innings. In a series defined by razor-thin margins, grabbing the Padres on the run line is the sharp play.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Twins· -142

We have got a beautiful afternoon for baseball at Progressive Field as the Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins in a high-stakes AL Central matchup. With both teams fighting for division positioning in late July, this getaway game sets up as a classic chess match where bullpen management and environmental factors will dictate the outcome. My money is on the Guardians today because of a massive mismatch in late-inning relief and starting pitcher splits. Gavin Williams is pitching in his absolute best element today. Williams carries a stellar 3.22 Day ERA compared to a 4.57 ERA at night, and he has been far more comfortable at home with a 3.45 ERA. He is backed by catcher Patrick Bailey, whose elite 85th-percentile pitch framing and 98th-percentile pop time provide a phenomenal defensive floor. Compare that to Taj Bradley, who struggles on the road with a 4.50 Away ERA. Bradley is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 0.61 GO/AO, which makes him highly vulnerable to a Twins defense that ranks near the bottom of baseball with a dismal -30 Defensive Runs Saved. The real hammer for Cleveland is their bullpen freshness and quality. While the Twins bullpen is in a complete free fall—having surrendered 32 earned runs over their last four games—their key high-leverage arms like Yoendrys Gomez and Andrew Morris are also highly fatigued after working yesterday. On the other side, Cleveland’s premier high-leverage trio of Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Colin Holderman did not pitch in yesterday’s loss and are fully rested. If this game is close in the sixth inning, Cleveland holds a monumental advantage. Additionally, the Twins are dealing with a fresh injury blow as key switch-hitting catcher Victor Caratini was forced out of yesterday’s game with a knee injury and is doubtful for this quick turnaround day game. Cleveland enters this game in much better overall form, winning seven of their last ten games, while Minnesota has dropped six of their last ten. Although the Twins have a dangerous lineup, the situational factors today point directly to the home side. The low 7.5 over/under indicates a low-scoring environment where pitching, defense, and bullpen depth reign supreme. In a low-scoring game, I will gladly back the home team with the rested elite bullpen and the starter who thrives under the afternoon sun. Take Cleveland on the moneyline.

My money is on the Guardians today because of a massive mismatch in late-inning relief and starting pitcher splits. Gavin Williams is pitching in his absolute best element today. Williams carries a stellar 3.22 Day ERA compared to a 4.57 ERA at night, and he has been far more comfortable at home with a 3.45 ERA. He is backed by catcher Patrick Bailey, whose elite 85th-percentile pitch framing and 98th-percentile pop time provide a phenomenal defensive floor. Compare that to Taj Bradley, who struggles on the road with a 4.50 Away ERA. Bradley is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 0.61 GO/AO, which makes him highly vulnerable to a Twins defense that ranks near the bottom of baseball with a dismal -30 Defensive Runs Saved.

The real hammer for Cleveland is their bullpen freshness and quality. While the Twins bullpen is in a complete free fall—having surrendered 32 earned runs over their last four games—their key high-leverage arms like Yoendrys Gomez and Andrew Morris are also highly fatigued after working yesterday. On the other side, Cleveland’s premier high-leverage trio of Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Colin Holderman did not pitch in yesterday’s loss and are fully rested. If this game is close in the sixth inning, Cleveland holds a monumental advantage. Additionally, the Twins are dealing with a fresh injury blow as key switch-hitting catcher Victor Caratini was forced out of yesterday’s game with a knee injury and is doubtful for this quick turnaround day game.

Cleveland enters this game in much better overall form, winning seven of their last ten games, while Minnesota has dropped six of their last ten. Although the Twins have a dangerous lineup, the situational factors today point directly to the home side. The low 7.5 over/under indicates a low-scoring environment where pitching, defense, and bullpen depth reign supreme. In a low-scoring game, I will gladly back the home team with the rested elite bullpen and the starter who thrives under the afternoon sun. Take Cleveland on the moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Blue Jays· -116

Rogers Centre gets the finale of a series Tampa Bay has controlled from the opening pitch, with the Rays chasing a four-game sweep and Toronto trying to salvage the afternoon. I’m backing Tampa Bay on the moneyline because its advantages extend beyond the series results. Shane Bieber carries a 5.70 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and 8.54 xERA, with a 53.2% hard-hit rate and 11.7% barrel rate allowed. Tampa Bay opener Casey Legumina is at a 3.92 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 4.97 xERA, with corresponding contact rates of 39.7% and 8.5%. Neither opening matchup is spotless, but Bieber brings considerably more volatility. The offensive gap supports that pitching read. Tampa Bay is batting .261 with a .738 OPS and 4.5 runs per game; Toronto is at .241, .681 and 3.9. Over the last five games, those numbers have moved in opposite directions: the Rays have scored 6.0 runs per game while allowing 3.6, compared with Toronto scoring 1.2 and allowing 5.2. Junior Caminero is batting .429 over the last seven days, Victor Mesa Jr. is at .333 with three home runs, and Chandler Simpson is hitting .476. That form has translated directly to this series, where Tampa Bay has produced a 23-5 scoring advantage through three wins. The bullpen situation closes the case. Tampa Bay used three relievers for 39 pitches Wednesday, while Toronto needed six non-starter arms for 130 pitches after its opener. That lighter workload better supports the Rays’ planned opener-and-bulk structure and gives them the cleaner late-game setup if the score remains tight. I considered the plus-money run line, but this is baseball and a one-run Tampa Bay win would still validate the core read while losing that ticket. At -116, I would rather pay the modest premium and back the better offense, the less concerning pitching setup and the more favorable bullpen condition to win outright.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cardinals· -104

Late-afternoon baseball at Busch Stadium, with Arizona and St. Louis separated by half a game and meeting for the seventh time this season. The price makes this close to a coin flip, but my money lands on the Diamondbacks moneyline at -104. Arizona’s current offensive form is the first separator. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 over their past ten while averaging 6.6 runs per game; the Cardinals are 4-6 while averaging 3.2. Their season-long production is nearly identical—Arizona averages 4.5 runs against St. Louis at 4.4—so I’m not claiming a massive overall talent gap. I’m backing the lineup producing better contact now. Arizona’s three-game .450 xwOBA, 11.6% barrel rate and 24.6% whiff rate all compare favorably with St. Louis at .365, 6.7% and 34.2%. Michael McGreevy’s 2.92 ERA and his 6.1 innings of one-run baseball against Arizona last week are the strongest arguments for St. Louis. The concern is his 5.35 xERA, especially opposite Brandon Pfaadt’s 4.22 xERA. Pfaadt’s .864 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters is a legitimate danger against five left-handed Cardinals starters, but he held this lineup to two earned runs over 5.1 innings six days ago. Behind him, Arizona’s closer did not pitch Wednesday, while the St. Louis closer threw 26 pitches Wednesday after also throwing 21 on July 20. Arizona also holds the cleaner fielding line, with a .990 fielding percentage and 37 errors versus St. Louis at .988 with 46. Four of the first six meetings were decided by one run, so I want no part of Arizona -1.5. The moneyline matches the read: a tight game, with Arizona’s current offense and late-game setup supplying the difference.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Royals· -108

Comerica Park hosts an AL Central opener under clear skies, with the wind coming in from left field and Detroit sending its best current starter to the mound. I’m backing the Tigers and laying 1.5 runs at -110 rather than paying the steep -235 moneyline. Troy Melton is the foundation of the bet. He enters with a 1.80 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 3.03 xERA, and he has recorded 25 strikeouts while allowing one earned run across 17.1 innings in his last three starts. Randy Dobnak’s 1.93 ERA looks comparable until the supporting numbers come into view: a 1.50 WHIP, 5.6 xERA and .359 expected wOBA allowed, compared with Melton’s .271. Dobnak gave up only one earned run in his latest start, but four walks across 4.1 innings show how narrow his margin was. My read is that Detroit has the stronger chance of controlling the game beyond the opening innings as well. Kyle Finnegan’s 2.40 ERA and Kenley Jansen’s 4.05 compare favorably with Alex Lange’s 6.15 and Lucas Erceg’s 5.40. Kansas City has won four of five, and its current lineup has been producing, so this is not a blind fade of the underdog. But Bobby Witt Jr.’s placement on the injured list and Jac Caglianone’s confirmed absence are fresh changes to the lineup. Detroit is also 27-23 at home while Kansas City is 17-33 away, and the Tigers have allowed 3.4 runs per game over their last ten compared with the Royals’ 6.1. The moneyline asks me to pay too much for one-run protection. Given the starting-pitcher separation, the late-inning comparison and the fresh Kansas City lineup losses, Tigers -1.5 at -110 is the ticket that fits my read.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

FERNANDO TATIS JR.TOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBPadres· +138

Betting against Chris Sale in 2026 is usually a losing proposition, but Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the few hitters with the pedigree and specific historical success to warrant the over. Tatis has maintained a career .333 average against the Braves ace and enters this matchup on a tear, clearing 1.5 total bases in four of his last five games, including three multi-hit efforts. While Sale's 2.06 ERA is imposing, Tatis has been significantly better against left-handed pitching this season (.299 AVG) than righties (.283 AVG). Batting leadoff ensures Tatis gets the maximum volume of plate appearances (likely 4-5) to find the gap. In a game where the wind is blowing in from right field, Tatis's ability to drive the ball to the left-center gap as a right-handed hitter makes him the most reliable Padres bat to produce tonight.

GARY'S PICK

CHASE DELAUTERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBGuardians· +126

Chase DeLauter is currently the hottest hitter in the Cleveland lineup, maintaining a .341 average over his last 10 games. This matchup against Taj Bradley is tailor-made for a power-hitting lefty; Bradley's surface stats hide a significant power deficiency against LHB, having surrendered 68% of his home runs this year to that side of the plate. Bradley is also a fly-ball pitcher who allows a high barrel rate (9.8%), playing right into the hands of a hitter like DeLauter who is consistently finding the gaps and clearing the fence. At +125, we are getting a great price on a player who only needs one extra-base hit or a multi-hit game to cash.

GARY'S PICK

JUNIOR CAMINEROTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBRays· -125

Junior Caminero enters today's game in supreme form, hitting .382 (13-for-34) over his last 10 games with multi-hit outings in four of his last five. In this series at Rogers Centre, Caminero has crushed Blue Jays pitching, recording outputs of 2-for-4, 2-for-3 (with 3 walks), and 3-for-4 with two doubles. The matchup against Shane Bieber is heavily advantageous: Bieber has been hit hard by right-handed batters in 2026, yielding a .396 AVG and a 1.139 OPS across 48 at-bats, backed by a high 53.2% Hard-Hit rate and 11.7% Barrel rate. With Rogers Centre expected to have its roof open and a 13 mph wind blowing out to center field, Caminero's exit velocity profile sets up well to clear 1.5 Total Bases. The primary risk is Toronto pitching around Caminero or walking him in key spots, but his volume of hard contact makes Over 1.5 Total Bases the top play.

GARY'S PICK

ALEC BURLESONTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBCardinals· +110

Alec Burleson bats 3rd for the Cardinals, guaranteeing a strong volume floor of 4+ plate appearances. He draws an optimal matchup against Brandon Pfaadt, who exhibits a severe split against left-handed hitters (.298 AVG, .864 OPS allowed). Burleson's season xSLG of .537 and recent .375 batting average over his last 7 games indicate he is driving the ball with authority, having cleared 1.5 total bases in 3 of his past 5 starts. At +110 odds (requiring a 47.6% break-even rate), Burleson over 1.5 total bases offers strong value. The risk is soft contact groundouts against Pfaadt's sinker or facing Arizona's left-handed relievers late in the game.

GARY'S PICK

GABRIEL MORENOH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBDiamondbacks· -118

Gabriel Moreno bats 4th in a Diamondbacks lineup that has scored 7.2 runs per game over their last 5 contests. Moreno is locked in, batting .366 over his last 15 games (.982 OPS) and .318 over his last 7 games (.944 OPS). He faces Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy, whose 2.92 ERA masks a 5.35 xERA, a .352 opp xwOBA, and a 41.3% hard-hit rate allowed. Moreno's placement behind Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Geraldo Perdomo provides rich RBI and run-scoring opportunities. At -118 odds (54.1% break-even threshold), Moreno clearing 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs is well-supported by his form and the matchup. The risk is McGreevy using his 90.5 mph sinker to induce ground ball double plays.

GARY'S PICK

DILLON DINGLERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +115

Dillon Dingler enters Thursday's game as the hottest hitter in Detroit, batting .409 (9-for-22) with 3 home runs, 5 RBIs, and a 1.409 OPS over his last 7 games. His season numbers (.271 AVG, 22 HR, 65 RBI, .868 OPS, 3.6 WAR) are fully backed by Statcast metrics, including a .285 xBA, .521 xSLG, and .376 xwOBA. Dingler faces Royals starter Randy Dobnak, whose 1.93 ERA masks a 5.60/5.63 xERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and an .891 OPS allowed to right-handed batters. Dobnak gives up a 40.4% hard-hit rate and walked 4 batters in 4.1 IP in his last start. Batting 5th, Dingler will have prime RBI and total base opportunities against Dobnak and a Royals bullpen that ranks 29th in MLB with a 5.38 ERA.

Research

HEAD-TO-HEADTB @ TOR
Rays are 9-2 vs Blue Jays this season
Rays lead the season series 9-2 over Blue Jays. TB won the last meeting 4-2.
FANTASY PICKUPSTB @ TOR
Jonathan Aranda
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (8.54 xERA) — .828 OPS, bats 2nd.
FANTASY PICKUPSTB @ TOR
Victor Mesa Jr.
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (8.54 xERA) — .800 OPS, bats 4th.
PLATOON EDGEARI @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Brandon Pfaadt (RHP)
Over 262 AB vs. Right, Alec Burleson owns a .940 OPS versus .501 in 121 AB the other way. He sees RHP Brandon Pfaadt tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 3-for-5, 5 TB
BULLPENKC @ DET
Detroit Tigers pen: 17 relief IP over their last 3 games
Detroit Tigers's bullpen has thrown 17 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
PLATOON EDGETB @ TOR
Yohendrick Pinango (bats L) hits 1st against Casey Legumina (RHP)
Over 123 AB vs. Right, Yohendrick Pinango owns a .792 OPS versus .448 in 29 AB the other way. He sees RHP Casey Legumina tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
TEAM RECORDARI @ STL
Diamondbacks 6-2 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 8 starts
Diamondbacks are 6-2 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDMIN @ CLE
Twins 6-2 in Taj Bradley's last 8 starts
Twins are 6-2 in Taj Bradley's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDKC @ DET
Tigers 6-2 in Troy Melton's last 8 starts
Tigers are 6-2 in Troy Melton's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDSD @ ATL
Padres 2-6 in Kyle Hart's last 8 starts
Padres are 2-6 in Kyle Hart's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSTB @ TOR
Jonny DeLuca
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (8.54 xERA) — .730 OPS, bats 5th.
SITUATIONALKC @ DET
DET's pen has logged 18 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 18 innings out of the pen — Ty Madden (3.3) and Brenan Hanifee (3) carried the load. KC's pen has thrown 7.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 3-4
PLATOON EDGEKC @ DET
Vinnie Pasquantino (bats L) hits 3rd against Troy Melton (RHP)
Over 200 AB vs. Right, Vinnie Pasquantino owns a .754 OPS versus .416 in 78 AB the other way. He sees RHP Troy Melton tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKSD @ ATL
Ty France: 1.382 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.382 OPS spans the last 15 days (35 PA) against a .871 season baseline, a 0.511 swing. He has 15 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
SITUATIONALTB @ TOR
16.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for TOR
Relievers have absorbed 16.3 innings over the last 3 games (Spencer Miles (3.7) and Brendon Little (3) the heaviest). TB's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-3
COOLING OFFTB @ TOR
Yandy Diaz: .601 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Shane Bieber
Yandy Diaz's .601 OPS over the last 15 days (54 PA) trails his .853 season mark, down 0.252. Tonight he draws RHP Shane Bieber — his weaker side: a .848 OPS vs RHP across 272 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEARI @ STL
Tim Tawa (bats R) gets a RHP from the 6th spot
Tim Tawa's vs. Right line (.771 OPS, 79 AB) sits well above his .411 mark the other way (27 AB). Tonight's starter Michael McGreevy throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKMIN @ CLE
Steven Kwan: 1.090 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 35 PA: a 1.090 OPS versus .654 for the season, 0.436 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFARI @ STL
Ketel Marte: .497 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael McGreevy
Ketel Marte's .497 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .773 season mark, down 0.276. Tonight he draws RHP Michael McGreevy — his weaker side: a .707 OPS vs RHP across 290 AB.
COOLING OFFARI @ STL
Nathan Church: .148 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brandon Pfaadt
Nathan Church's .148 OPS over the last 15 days (27 PA) trails his .636 season mark, down 0.488. Tonight he draws RHP Brandon Pfaadt — his weaker side: a .629 OPS vs RHP across 198 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
BULLPENTB @ TOR
Toronto Blue Jays pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Toronto Blue Jays's bullpen has thrown 16.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
REGRESSIONTB @ TOR
Shane Bieber: 5.7 ERA vs 8.54 xERA
Shane Bieber carries a 5.7 ERA against a 8.54 expected ERA (2.84 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .302 off him vs a .324 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
PLATOON EDGEKC @ DET
Gleyber Torres (bats R) hits 2nd against Randy Dobnak (RHP)
Over 128 AB vs. Right, Gleyber Torres owns a .842 OPS versus .604 in 36 AB the other way. He sees RHP Randy Dobnak tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIN @ CLE
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 5th against Taj Bradley (RHP)
Over 178 AB vs. Right, Travis Bazzana owns a .859 OPS versus .552 in 87 AB the other way. He sees RHP Taj Bradley tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFKC @ DET
Kerry Carpenter: .108 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Randy Dobnak
Kerry Carpenter's .108 OPS over the last 15 days (27 PA) trails his .702 season mark, down 0.594. Tonight he draws RHP Randy Dobnak — his stronger side: a .736 OPS vs RHP across 199 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGETB @ TOR
Jonathan Aranda (bats L) hits 2nd against Shane Bieber (RHP)
Over 260 AB vs. Right, Jonathan Aranda owns a .899 OPS versus .658 in 107 AB the other way. He sees RHP Shane Bieber tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STREAKMIN @ CLE
MIN games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for MIN — their games are producing only 7 runs against numbers around 8.8. Tonight's number sits at 7.5.
P final total 4 vs 7.5
STREAKTB @ TOR
TOR have lost 4 straight
4 losses in a row for TOR, a -21 run margin across the slide — they limp in 1-5 over their last 6.
P team won 1-3
SITUATIONALMIN @ CLE
14.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for MIN
Relievers have absorbed 14.7 innings over the last 3 games (Mike Paredes (3) and Kody Funderburk (2) the heaviest). CLE's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 3-1
REGRESSIONARI @ STL
Michael McGreevy: 2.92 ERA vs 5.35 xERA
Michael McGreevy carries a 2.92 ERA against a 5.35 expected ERA (2.43 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .236 off him vs a .285 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
COOLING OFFSD @ ATL
Mauricio Dubon: .485 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Kyle Hart
Mauricio Dubon's .485 OPS over the last 15 days (45 PA) trails his .731 season mark, down 0.246. Tonight he draws LHP Kyle Hart — his weaker side: a .710 OPS vs LHP across 138 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
TOMORROWOAK @ MIN
Jacob Lopez: 6.64 ERA vs 3.88 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIN. A 6.64 ERA against a 3.88 expected ERA (2.76 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .283 vs .225 expected.
HEAT CHECKTB @ TOR
Victor Mesa Jr.: 1.340 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (24 PA) he is at a 1.340 OPS, up 0.54 on his .800 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKSD @ ATL
Drake Baldwin: 1.164 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 41 PA: a 1.164 OPS versus .841 for the season, 0.323 above his norm. He has 18 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKTB @ TOR
Chandler Simpson: .993 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (41 PA) he is at a .993 OPS, up 0.314 on his .679 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
PARK WEATHERTB @ TOR
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Rogers Centre tonight
Conditions at Rogers Centre: Partly Cloudy, 64°, wind 13 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 4 vs 8.5 (over lean)
COOLING OFFSD @ ATL
Gavin Sheets: .358 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Chris Sale
Gavin Sheets's .358 OPS over the last 15 days (29 PA) trails his .729 season mark, down 0.371. Tonight he draws LHP Chris Sale — his weaker side: a .489 OPS vs LHP across 52 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TOMORROWARI @ WSH
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.62 ERA vs 5.11 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 2.62 ERA against a 5.11 expected ERA (2.49 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .232 vs .269 expected.
HEAT CHECKARI @ STL
Tim Tawa: 1.000 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 37 PA: a 1.000 OPS versus .678 for the season, 0.322 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKMIN @ CLE
Patrick Bailey: 1.008 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 26 PA: a 1.008 OPS versus .553 for the season, 0.455 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
SITUATIONALARI @ STL
ARI's pen has logged 13.3 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 13.3 innings out of the pen — Kevin Ginkel (2) and Jonathan Loaisiga (2) carried the load. STL's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
P flagged side won 10-6
PLATOON EDGESD @ ATL
Fernando Tatis Jr. (bats R) draws Chris Sale (LHP), batting 1st
Fernando Tatis Jr. carries a .879 OPS vs. Left (77 AB) against .731 the other way (318 AB), and faces LHP Chris Sale from the 1st spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONSD @ ATL
Kyle Hart: 5.66 ERA vs 3.75 xERA
Kyle Hart carries a 5.66 ERA against a 3.75 expected ERA (1.91 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .222 off him vs a .223 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
TOMORROWCOL @ MIL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.76 ERA vs 7 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIL. A 4.76 ERA against a 7 expected ERA (2.24 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .268 vs .311 expected.
COOLING OFFMIN @ CLE
Ryan Kreidler: .254 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Gavin Williams
Ryan Kreidler's .254 OPS over the last 15 days (27 PA) trails his .690 season mark, down 0.436. Tonight he draws RHP Gavin Williams — his stronger side: a .740 OPS vs RHP across 88 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKKC @ DET
Dillon Dingler: 1.190 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 30 PA: a 1.190 OPS versus .868 for the season, 0.322 above his norm. He has 22 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB, 1 BB
BATTER VS ARMSD @ ATL
Manny Machado vs Chris Sale: .355
In 31 career at-bats against Chris Sale, Manny Machado is 11-for-31 for a .993 OPS (5 walks). The two square off again tonight. He enters hot (1.044 OPS, L15).
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
SITUATIONALSD @ ATL
12.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for ATL
Relievers have absorbed 12.7 innings over the last 3 games (JR Ritchie (3.7) and Victor Mederos (2.7) the heaviest). SD's pen has thrown 8.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 5-6
REGRESSIONSD @ ATL
Griffin Canning: 6.67 ERA vs 4.94 xERA
Griffin Canning carries a 6.67 ERA against a 4.94 expected ERA (1.73 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .281 off him vs a .254 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
STARTER FORMARI @ STL
Brandon Pfaadt: 2.30 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (15.7 IP) he has a 2.30 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP (1.31 season) and 11 strikeouts — his season mark is 4.58, and that is where most lines still price him.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
BULLPENMIN @ CLE
Minnesota Twins pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Minnesota Twins's bullpen has thrown 14.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 1 arm working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
BALLPARKARI @ STL
At Busch Stadium, Michael McGreevy pitches to a 1.89 ERA
Michael McGreevy at Busch Stadium: 1.89 ERA over 52.3 innings (9G) — 3.88 on a 55.7-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .221 off him here.
P 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
COOLING OFFARI @ STL
Corbin Carroll: .651 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael McGreevy
Corbin Carroll's .651 OPS over the last 15 days (38 PA) trails his .834 season mark, down 0.183. Tonight he draws RHP Michael McGreevy — his weaker side: a .749 OPS vs RHP across 251 AB.
P 1-for-5, 3 TB
HEAT CHECKTB @ TOR
Alejandro Kirk: .990 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 24 PA: a .990 OPS versus .645 for the season, 0.345 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIN @ CLE
Rhys Hoskins (bats R) draws Taj Bradley (RHP), batting 6th
Rhys Hoskins carries a .760 OPS vs. Right (145 AB) against .582 the other way (82 AB), and faces RHP Taj Bradley from the 6th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTSD @ ATL
Luis Rengifo (.441 vs LHP) replaces Ramon Laureano at LF tonight
Luis Rengifo draws LHP Chris Sale from the 2nd spot. He carries a .441 OPS vs LHP (82 AB) — a tough platoon spot relative to his .579 season line. On the injury report for 48 days (Hip).
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
REPLACEMENTTB @ TOR
Yohendrick Pinango (.792 vs RHP) replaces Jesus Sanchez at RF tonight
Yohendrick Pinango draws RHP Casey Legumina from the 1st spot. He carries a .792 OPS vs RHP (123 AB) — a favorable platoon spot relative to his .729 season line. On the injury report for 9 days (Ankle).
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
REPLACEMENTKC @ DET
Lane Thomas (.718 vs RHP) replaces Kyle Isbel at CF tonight
Lane Thomas draws RHP Troy Melton from the 2nd spot. He carries a .718 OPS vs RHP (149 AB) — a tough platoon spot relative to his .746 season line. On the injury report since yesterday (Foot).
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTKC @ DET
Kerry Carpenter (.736 vs RHP) replaces Wenceel Perez at RF tonight
Kerry Carpenter draws RHP Randy Dobnak from the 6th spot. He carries a .736 OPS vs RHP (199 AB) — a favorable platoon spot relative to his .702 season line. On the injury report for 16 days (Orbital).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSKC @ DET
Riley Greene
Pickup vs Randy Dobnak (5.6 xERA) — .846 OPS, bats 4th.
REPLACEMENTARI @ STL
Max Kepler (.661 vs RHP) replaces Jordan Lawlar at LF tonight
Max Kepler draws RHP Michael McGreevy from the 5th spot. He carries a .661 OPS vs RHP (46 AB) — a tough platoon spot relative to his .692 season line. On the injury report for 5 days (Hamstring).
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTTB @ TOR
Victor Mesa Jr. (.799 vs RHP) replaces Jake Fraley at RF tonight
Victor Mesa Jr. draws RHP Shane Bieber from the 4th spot. He carries a .799 OPS vs RHP (85 AB) — a tough platoon spot relative to his .800 season line. On the injury report for 11 days (Groin).
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
REPLACEMENTARI @ STL
Jose Fermin (.639 vs RHP) replaces Ramon Urias at 3B tonight
Jose Fermin draws RHP Brandon Pfaadt from the 6th spot. He carries a .639 OPS vs RHP (84 AB) — a tough platoon spot relative to his .706 season line. On the injury report for 41 days (Elbow).
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
BULLPENARI @ STL
Arizona Diamondbacks pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Arizona Diamondbacks's bullpen has thrown 13.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
REGRESSIONTB @ TOR
Ernie Clement: .297 AVG vs .257 xBA
Across 399 plate appearances, Ernie Clement carries a .297 average versus a .257 xBA. His wOBA sits at .324 against a .275 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REGRESSIONKC @ DET
Troy Melton: 1.8 ERA vs 3.03 xERA
Troy Melton carries a 1.8 ERA against a 3.03 expected ERA (1.23 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .170 off him vs a .215 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
REGRESSIONSD @ ATL
Chris Sale: 2.06 ERA vs 3.31 xERA
Chris Sale carries a 2.06 ERA against a 3.31 expected ERA (1.25 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .221 off him vs a .228 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
FANTASY PICKUPSKC @ DET
Troy Melton
Streamer vs KC — 3.03 xERA · 8.2 K/9 · 0.87 WHIP.
COOLING OFFKC @ DET
Nick Loftin: .554 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Troy Melton
Nick Loftin's .554 OPS over the last 15 days (32 PA) trails his .729 season mark, down 0.175. Tonight he draws RHP Troy Melton — his weaker side: a .708 OPS vs RHP across 111 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
STARTER FORMSD @ ATL
Griffin Canning: 5.11 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 7 earned runs over his last 12.3 innings (5.11 ERA) with a 1.46 WHIP (1.62 season) — a different pitcher than the 6.67 season line says.
P 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
HEAT CHECKARI @ STL
Gabriel Moreno: .982 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (41 PA) he is at a .982 OPS, up 0.149 on his .833 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 3-for-4, 4 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ STL
Gabriel Moreno
Pickup vs Michael McGreevy (5.35 xERA) — .833 OPS, bats 4th.
REGRESSIONTB @ TOR
Ian Seymour: 4.79 ERA vs 3.67 xERA
Ian Seymour carries a 4.79 ERA against a 3.67 expected ERA (1.12 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .215 off him vs a .216 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
COOLING OFFTB @ TOR
Jonny DeLuca: .552 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Shane Bieber
Jonny DeLuca's .552 OPS over the last 15 days (29 PA) trails his .730 season mark, down 0.178. Tonight he draws RHP Shane Bieber — his weaker side: a .710 OPS vs RHP across 111 AB.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
TOMORROWARI @ WSH
Zack Littell: 5.34 ERA vs 6.49 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ARI. A 5.34 ERA against a 6.49 expected ERA (1.15 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .267 vs .292 expected.
BATTER VS ARMSD @ ATL
Fernando Tatis Jr. vs Chris Sale: .333
Fernando Tatis Jr. has gone 4-for-12 (.333) across 12 career at-bats off Chris Sale, with 1 HR. They meet again tonight. He enters hot (1.036 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
BULLPENSD @ ATL
Atlanta Braves pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Atlanta Braves's bullpen has thrown 12.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 1 arm working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
FIRST INNINGSD @ ATL
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of SD @ ATL
ATL games have produced a first-inning run in 7 of their last 10; SD games in 7 of 10. Early runs have been the rule, not the exception.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
TOMORROWHOU @ CHW
Davis Martin: 3.31 ERA vs 4.37 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs HOU. A 3.31 ERA against a 4.37 expected ERA (1.06 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .255 vs .268 expected.
BALLPARKMIN @ CLE
Gavin Williams's ERA drops to 3.45 at Progressive Field
Gavin Williams carries a 3.45 ERA over 10 games (60 IP) at Progressive Field vs 4.55 across 59.3 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .230 off him here.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
TOMORROWCLE @ TB
Shane McClanahan: 3.17 ERA vs 4.17 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CLE. A 3.17 ERA against a 4.17 expected ERA (1 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .216 vs .244 expected.
REGRESSIONMIN @ CLE
Brooks Lee: .254 AVG vs .230 xBA
Across 394 plate appearances, Brooks Lee carries a .254 average versus a .230 xBA. His wOBA sits at .325 against a .277 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
RUNNING GAMEMIN @ CLE
Green light: Cleveland Guardians run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 15%
Cleveland Guardians steal 1 bags a game (101 on the season) and Ryan Jeffers has thrown out 5 of 34 runners (15%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 2 bases
TOMORROWCIN @ STL
Dustin May: 4.78 ERA vs 3.91 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CIN. A 4.78 ERA against a 3.91 expected ERA (0.87 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .261 vs .245 expected.
TOMORROWATL @ BAL
Grant Holmes: 3.7 ERA vs 4.59 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs BAL. A 3.7 ERA against a 4.59 expected ERA (0.89 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .236 vs .247 expected.
BALLPARKKC @ DET
Troy Melton owns a 2.42 ERA at Comerica Park — 1.38 everywhere else
Across 4 games (22.3 IP) at Comerica Park, Troy Melton has a 2.42 ERA against 1.38 at his other parks (32.7 IP). Hitters bat .183 off him here.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
REPLACEMENTTB @ TOR
Lenyn Sosa (2B) is out for TOR — Luis Urias starts in his place tonight
With Lenyn Sosa out (Wrist; on the injury report for 6 days), Luis Urias draws the start at 2B and bats 8th tonight and carries a .833 OPS / .267 AVG this season.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
TOMORROWSEA @ TEX
MacKenzie Gore: 4.8 ERA vs 3.97 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SEA. A 4.8 ERA against a 3.97 expected ERA (0.83 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .236 vs .238 expected.
TOMORROWLAA @ SF
Grayson Rodriguez: 8.23 ERA vs 7.41 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SF. A 8.23 ERA against a 7.41 expected ERA (0.82 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .317 vs .313 expected.
FANTASY PICKUPSTB @ TOR
Kazuma Okamoto
Pickup vs Casey Legumina (4.97 xERA) — .754 OPS, bats 6th.
FANTASY PICKUPSTB @ TOR
Ernie Clement
Pickup vs Casey Legumina (4.97 xERA) — .746 OPS, bats 3rd.
BATTER VS ARMMIN @ CLE
Ryan Jeffers vs Gavin Williams: .385
In 13 career at-bats against Gavin Williams, Ryan Jeffers is 5-for-13 for a .846 OPS. The two square off again tonight. He enters hot (.952 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSSD @ ATL
Kyle Hart
Streamer vs ATL — 3.75 xERA · 7.7 K/9 · 1.14 WHIP.

Graded results

Games

W
Padres +1.5 +104
MLB · 5-6
L
Guardians ML -142
MLB · 3-1
L
Tampa Bay Rays ML -116
MLB · 1-3
W
Diamondbacks ML -104
MLB · 10-6
L
Tigers -1.5 -110
MLB · 3-4

Props

W
Alec Burleson · over
Diamondbacks @ Cardinals · Actual 5
L
Chase DeLauter · over
Twins @ Guardians · Actual 0
W
Dillon Dingler · over
Royals @ Tigers · Actual 3
L
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Padres @ Braves · Actual 1
W
Gabriel Moreno · over
Diamondbacks @ Cardinals · Actual 6
L
Junior Caminero · over
Rays @ Blue Jays · Actual 0

Sports picks for Thursday, July 23, 2026

Game picks

Padres
+1.5

Guardians
Moneyline

Rays
Moneyline

Diamondbacks
Moneyline

Tigers
-1.5

Player props

Fernando Tatis Jr.
Total Bases over 1.5

Chase DeLauter
Total Bases over 1.5

Junior Caminero
Total Bases over 1.5

Alec Burleson
Total Bases over 1.5

Gabriel Moreno
H+R+RBI over 1.5

Dillon Dingler
Total Bases over 1.5

Research

Graded results

Games

Props