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2026-07-23

The stored Gary board for Thu, Jul 23. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

5
MLB12:15 PM

Padres @ Braves

A hot afternoon at Truist Park sets the stage for a high-stakes series finale between the San Diego Padres and the Atlanta Braves. While the betting public will lock eyes on Atlanta’s ace Chris Sale, this matchup is far tighter than the heavy moneyline price tag suggests. Two of the first three games in this series have already been decided by a single run, and there is every reason to believe this afternoon’s battle will follow a similarly competitive script. The Padres' offense has been absolutely scorching at the plate, posting an elite .452 xwOBA, a 15.8% barrel rate, and a 48.7% hard-hit rate over their last three games. More importantly, San Diego’s top-of-the-order righties have historically excelled against Sale. Manny Machado has battered the left-hander to the tune of a .355 average and a .993 OPS over 31 career at-bats, while Fernando Tatis Jr. has produced a .333 average and a 1.000 OPS in 12 at-bats against him. While Sale's 2.06 surface ERA is impressive, his 3.31 xERA indicates some positive regression is on the horizon, and this red-hot Padres lineup is fully capable of driving it. On the other side, Kyle Hart's 5.66 ERA is highly misleading. His 3.75 xERA is nearly two full runs lower, and his splitter boasts an outstanding 42.3% whiff rate and a 0.223 xwOBA. Hart can keep the Braves' hitters off-balance, especially since they have zero career experience against him. Even if Hart gets into trouble early, the Padres' offense has the firepower to keep pace against an Atlanta bullpen that has stumbled to a 4.91 xERA over its last 25 innings. In a series defined by razor-thin margins, grabbing the Padres on the run line is the sharp play.

Padres +1.5+104
CONF
72%
MLB1:10 PM

Twins @ Guardians

We have got a beautiful afternoon for baseball at Progressive Field as the Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins in a high-stakes AL Central matchup. With both teams fighting for division positioning in late July, this getaway game sets up as a classic chess match where bullpen management and environmental factors will dictate the outcome. My money is on the Guardians today because of a massive mismatch in late-inning relief and starting pitcher splits. Gavin Williams is pitching in his absolute best element today. Williams carries a stellar 3.22 Day ERA compared to a 4.57 ERA at night, and he has been far more comfortable at home with a 3.45 ERA. He is backed by catcher Patrick Bailey, whose elite 85th-percentile pitch framing and 98th-percentile pop time provide a phenomenal defensive floor. Compare that to Taj Bradley, who struggles on the road with a 4.50 Away ERA. Bradley is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 0.61 GO/AO, which makes him highly vulnerable to a Twins defense that ranks near the bottom of baseball with a dismal -30 Defensive Runs Saved. The real hammer for Cleveland is their bullpen freshness and quality. While the Twins bullpen is in a complete free fall—having surrendered 32 earned runs over their last four games—their key high-leverage arms like Yoendrys Gomez and Andrew Morris are also highly fatigued after working yesterday. On the other side, Cleveland’s premier high-leverage trio of Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Colin Holderman did not pitch in yesterday’s loss and are fully rested. If this game is close in the sixth inning, Cleveland holds a monumental advantage. Additionally, the Twins are dealing with a fresh injury blow as key switch-hitting catcher Victor Caratini was forced out of yesterday’s game with a knee injury and is doubtful for this quick turnaround day game. Cleveland enters this game in much better overall form, winning seven of their last ten games, while Minnesota has dropped six of their last ten. Although the Twins have a dangerous lineup, the situational factors today point directly to the home side. The low 7.5 over/under indicates a low-scoring environment where pitching, defense, and bullpen depth reign supreme. In a low-scoring game, I will gladly back the home team with the rested elite bullpen and the starter who thrives under the afternoon sun. Take Cleveland on the moneyline.

Guardians ML-142
CONF
72%
MLB3:07 PM

Rays @ Blue Jays

Rogers Centre gets the finale of a series Tampa Bay has controlled from the opening pitch, with the Rays chasing a four-game sweep and Toronto trying to salvage the afternoon. I’m backing Tampa Bay on the moneyline because its advantages extend beyond the series results. Shane Bieber carries a 5.70 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and 8.54 xERA, with a 53.2% hard-hit rate and 11.7% barrel rate allowed. Tampa Bay opener Casey Legumina is at a 3.92 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 4.97 xERA, with corresponding contact rates of 39.7% and 8.5%. Neither opening matchup is spotless, but Bieber brings considerably more volatility. The offensive gap supports that pitching read. Tampa Bay is batting .261 with a .738 OPS and 4.5 runs per game; Toronto is at .241, .681 and 3.9. Over the last five games, those numbers have moved in opposite directions: the Rays have scored 6.0 runs per game while allowing 3.6, compared with Toronto scoring 1.2 and allowing 5.2. Junior Caminero is batting .429 over the last seven days, Victor Mesa Jr. is at .333 with three home runs, and Chandler Simpson is hitting .476. That form has translated directly to this series, where Tampa Bay has produced a 23-5 scoring advantage through three wins. The bullpen situation closes the case. Tampa Bay used three relievers for 39 pitches Wednesday, while Toronto needed six non-starter arms for 130 pitches after its opener. That lighter workload better supports the Rays’ planned opener-and-bulk structure and gives them the cleaner late-game setup if the score remains tight. I considered the plus-money run line, but this is baseball and a one-run Tampa Bay win would still validate the core read while losing that ticket. At -116, I would rather pay the modest premium and back the better offense, the less concerning pitching setup and the more favorable bullpen condition to win outright.

Tampa Bay Rays ML-116
CONF
68%
MLB5:15 PM

Diamondbacks @ Cardinals

Late-afternoon baseball at Busch Stadium, with Arizona and St. Louis separated by half a game and meeting for the seventh time this season. The price makes this close to a coin flip, but my money lands on the Diamondbacks moneyline at -104. Arizona’s current offensive form is the first separator. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 over their past ten while averaging 6.6 runs per game; the Cardinals are 4-6 while averaging 3.2. Their season-long production is nearly identical—Arizona averages 4.5 runs against St. Louis at 4.4—so I’m not claiming a massive overall talent gap. I’m backing the lineup producing better contact now. Arizona’s three-game .450 xwOBA, 11.6% barrel rate and 24.6% whiff rate all compare favorably with St. Louis at .365, 6.7% and 34.2%. Michael McGreevy’s 2.92 ERA and his 6.1 innings of one-run baseball against Arizona last week are the strongest arguments for St. Louis. The concern is his 5.35 xERA, especially opposite Brandon Pfaadt’s 4.22 xERA. Pfaadt’s .864 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters is a legitimate danger against five left-handed Cardinals starters, but he held this lineup to two earned runs over 5.1 innings six days ago. Behind him, Arizona’s closer did not pitch Wednesday, while the St. Louis closer threw 26 pitches Wednesday after also throwing 21 on July 20. Arizona also holds the cleaner fielding line, with a .990 fielding percentage and 37 errors versus St. Louis at .988 with 46. Four of the first six meetings were decided by one run, so I want no part of Arizona -1.5. The moneyline matches the read: a tight game, with Arizona’s current offense and late-game setup supplying the difference.

Diamondbacks ML-104
CONF
61%
MLB6:40 PM

Royals @ Tigers

Comerica Park hosts an AL Central opener under clear skies, with the wind coming in from left field and Detroit sending its best current starter to the mound. I’m backing the Tigers and laying 1.5 runs at -110 rather than paying the steep -235 moneyline. Troy Melton is the foundation of the bet. He enters with a 1.80 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 3.03 xERA, and he has recorded 25 strikeouts while allowing one earned run across 17.1 innings in his last three starts. Randy Dobnak’s 1.93 ERA looks comparable until the supporting numbers come into view: a 1.50 WHIP, 5.6 xERA and .359 expected wOBA allowed, compared with Melton’s .271. Dobnak gave up only one earned run in his latest start, but four walks across 4.1 innings show how narrow his margin was. My read is that Detroit has the stronger chance of controlling the game beyond the opening innings as well. Kyle Finnegan’s 2.40 ERA and Kenley Jansen’s 4.05 compare favorably with Alex Lange’s 6.15 and Lucas Erceg’s 5.40. Kansas City has won four of five, and its current lineup has been producing, so this is not a blind fade of the underdog. But Bobby Witt Jr.’s placement on the injured list and Jac Caglianone’s confirmed absence are fresh changes to the lineup. Detroit is also 27-23 at home while Kansas City is 17-33 away, and the Tigers have allowed 3.4 runs per game over their last ten compared with the Royals’ 6.1. The moneyline asks me to pay too much for one-run protection. Given the starting-pitcher separation, the late-inning comparison and the fresh Kansas City lineup losses, Tigers -1.5 at -110 is the ticket that fits my read.

Tigers -1.5-108
CONF
68%

Player props

6
MLB · Padres @ Braves

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Betting against Chris Sale in 2026 is usually a losing proposition, but Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the few hitters with the pedigree and specific historical success to warrant the over.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+138
  • · Fernando Tatis Jr. vs LHP: .299 AVG / .879 OPS (2026)
  • · Fernando Tatis Jr. career vs Chris Sale: .333 AVG in 12 ABs
  • · Cleared 1.5 TB in 4 of his last 5 games (3, 7, 0, 5, 4 TB)
MLB · Twins @ Guardians

Chase DeLauter

Chase DeLauter is currently the hottest hitter in the Cleveland lineup, maintaining a .341 average over his last 10 games. This matchup against Taj Bradley is tailor-made for a power-hitting lefty; Bradley's surface stats hide a significant power deficiency against LHB, having surrendered 68% of his home runs this year to that side of the plate. Bradley is also a fly-ball pitcher who allows a high barrel rate (9.8%), playing right into the hands of a hitter like DeLauter who is consistently finding the gaps and clearing the fence. At +125, we are getting a great price on a player who only needs one extra-base hit or a multi-hit game to cash.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+126
  • · Batted .341 with 3 HR and 8 RBI over his last 10 games
  • · Taj Bradley has allowed 11 of his 16 HR to left-handed hitters this season
  • · Bradley's 0.61 GO/AO indicates a heavy fly-ball tendency (high XBH risk)
MLB · Rays @ Blue Jays

Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero enters today's game in supreme form, hitting .382 (13-for-34) over his last 10 games with multi-hit outings in four of his last five. In this series at Rogers Centre, Caminero has crushed Blue Jays pitching, recording outputs of 2-for-4, 2-for-3 (with 3 walks), and 3-for-4 with two doubles.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-125
  • · Junior Caminero is hitting .382 (13-for-34) over his last 10 games with multi-hit performances in 4 of his last 5 games.
  • · In 3 games this series vs Toronto, Caminero has gone 2-for-4, 2-for-3, and 3-for-4 with two doubles.
  • · Shane Bieber has allowed a .396 AVG and 1.139 OPS to right-handed batters in 2026, alongside a 53.2% Hard-Hit% and 11.7% Barrel%.
MLB · Diamondbacks @ Cardinals

Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson bats 3rd for the Cardinals, guaranteeing a strong volume floor of 4+ plate appearances. He draws an optimal matchup against Brandon Pfaadt, who exhibits a severe split against left-handed hitters (.298 AVG, .864 OPS allowed).

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+110
  • · Brandon Pfaadt yields .298 AVG and .864 OPS to LHB (7 HR in 124 AB)
  • · Burleson owns a .537 xSLG and .298 xBA on the season
  • · Burleson hit .375 over his last 7 games with 3 multi-hit games in L5
MLB · Diamondbacks @ Cardinals

Gabriel Moreno

Gabriel Moreno bats 4th in a Diamondbacks lineup that has scored 7.2 runs per game over their last 5 contests. Moreno is locked in, batting .366 over his last 15 games (.982 OPS) and .318 over his last 7 games (.944 OPS).

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-118
  • · Michael McGreevy carries a 5.35 xERA, .352 opp xwOBA, and 41.3% hard-hit rate
  • · Moreno is hitting .366 over his last 15 games and .318 over his last 7 games
  • · Moreno has cleared 1.5 HRR in 3 of his last 4 starts batting cleanup
MLB · Royals @ Tigers

Dillon Dingler

Dillon Dingler enters Thursday's game as the hottest hitter in Detroit, batting .409 (9-for-22) with 3 home runs, 5 RBIs, and a 1.409 OPS over his last 7 games. His season numbers (.271 AVG, 22 HR, 65 RBI, .868 OPS, 3.6 WAR) are fully backed by Statcast metrics, including a .285 xBA, .521 xSLG, and .376 xwOBA.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+115
  • · L7 stats: 9-for-22 (.409 AVG), 3 HR, 5 RBI, 1.409 OPS
  • · Season stats: .271 AVG, 22 HR, 65 RBI, .868 OPS, 3.6 WAR
  • · Underlying xStats: .285 xBA, .521 xSLG, .376 xwOBA

Hub research

93

Graded results

11

Games

  • W

    Padres +1.5 +104

    MLB · 5-6

  • L

    Guardians ML -142

    MLB · 3-1

  • L

    Tampa Bay Rays ML -116

    MLB · 1-3

  • W

    Diamondbacks ML -104

    MLB · 10-6

  • L

    Tigers -1.5 -110

    MLB · 3-4

Props

  • W

    Alec Burleson · over

    Diamondbacks @ Cardinals · Actual 5

  • L

    Chase DeLauter · over

    Twins @ Guardians · Actual 0

  • W

    Dillon Dingler · over

    Royals @ Tigers · Actual 3

  • L

    Fernando Tatis Jr. · over

    Padres @ Braves · Actual 1

  • W

    Gabriel Moreno · over

    Diamondbacks @ Cardinals · Actual 6

  • L

    Junior Caminero · over

    Rays @ Blue Jays · Actual 0