Daily archive

2026-07-22

The stored Gary board for Wed, Jul 22. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB1:05 PM

Pirates @ Yankees

Under the afternoon sun at Yankee Stadium, two clubs look to set the tone for a crucial doubleheader as Gerrit Cole takes the mound against Mitch Keller in a classic matchup of arms. The starting pitching matchup heavily favors New York as Cole has been trending in the right direction, posting a 3.00 ERA over his last three starts and holding a season-long xERA of 3.56. Keller, meanwhile, has struggled with a 5.14 ERA and a 5.38 xERA, demonstrating a performance profile that is highly vulnerable to top-tier offenses. The tactical advantage is stark when analyzing the batting matchups. Keller has been highly vulnerable to left-handed hitters this season, allowing an .843 OPS and surrendering 11 of his 13 home runs against them. The Yankees have optimized their lineup to exploit this exact weakness, featuring eight left-handed or switch-hitting batters today. In an environment with 83°F temperatures and a 10 mph wind blowing out to center field, this lefty-heavy order is built to produce extra-base hits. In particular, Ben Rice—who boasts a 1.020 OPS and 21 home runs against right-handed pitching—is in a prime position to inflict damage against Keller's vulnerable 4-seam fastball. Additionally, the bullpen disparity gives New York the ultimate closing edge. Although the Yankees enter the doubleheader with a bullpen that has been heavily taxed recently, the Tuesday rainout provided a vital day of rest to reset their hierarchy. This ensures high-leverage weapons like David Bednar, who carries a 2.59 ERA and is on a 17-appearance scoreless streak, alongside setup arms Fernando Cruz (2.32 ERA) and Paul Blackburn (2.08 ERA), are fully available. With Cole's recent consistency and a lineup perfectly constructed to tee off on Keller, the Yankees are set up to control this game from start to finish.

Yankees -1.5+114

CONF

78%

MLB1:35 PM

Orioles @ Red Sox

A classic division rivalry takes center stage at Fenway Park this afternoon as the Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles in Game 1 of a split doubleheader. With temperatures soaring to 83°F and a steady 11 mph wind blowing straight out to center field, this hitter-friendly environment sets up a fascinating tactical battle on the mound. The starting pitching matchup heavily favors Boston's rookie left-hander Jake Bennett. Over nine starts this season, Bennett has posted a stellar 2.35 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP, backed by an elite 5.8% barrel rate allowed that protects him in a drafty ballpark. His devastating changeup is a major weapon, generating a 32% whiff rate and a microscopic .170 xwOBA. Bennett’s ability to suppress hard contact stands in stark contrast to Baltimore's Dean Kremer, who enters with a 4.15 ERA and a highly vulnerable 11.9% barrel rate allowed, making him extremely susceptible to the wind blowing out today. Kremer faces a nightmare matchup due to his extreme platoon splits. Left-handed batters have absolutely shredded the Orioles right-hander this season, posting a .281 average and a massive .980 OPS, including 7 home runs in just 64 at-bats. The Red Sox lineup is primed to exploit this, starting high-impact lefties like Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Masataka Yoshida at the top of the card. Yoshida has historically dominated Kremer, racking up a career .500 average and a 1.100 OPS over 10 head-to-head at-bats. This lefty-heavy stack should generate constant pressure against a pitcher whose expected metrics (4.91 xERA) suggest negative regression is looming. To make matters worse for Baltimore, they are forced to navigate a fresh catching crisis. With Adley Rutschman (1.7 WAR) on the 10-day injured list and Samuel Basallo sidelined with shoulder discomfort, the Orioles must start backup Sam Huff behind the plate. Huff represents a significant defensive downgrade, carrying a -0.2 WAR and a weak 13% caught-stealing rate, which limits Baltimore's ability to frame strikes and contain Boston's baserunners. Combined with a fully rested Red Sox bullpen anchored by Aroldis Chapman (22 saves, 1.99 ERA) and Garrett Whitlock (18 holds, 2.00 ERA) to lock down the late innings, the Red Sox are in a premier position to extend their 14-game winning streak. At -156 on the moneyline, the price is exceptionally generous.

Red Sox ML-156

CONF

82%

MLB2:10 PM

Mets @ Brewers

An afternoon clash unfolds at American Family Field as the first-place Milwaukee Brewers look to protect their home turf against the visiting New York Mets. While the surface ERAs for today's starting pitchers look neck-and-neck, diving beneath the hood reveals a massive edge for Milwaukee. Logan Henderson is the real deal, carrying a 2.97 ERA backed by a sustainable 2.91 xERA and an elite 0.93 WHIP, whereas Christian Scott's 2.87 ERA sits on a very shaky foundation of a 4.14 xERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Henderson is especially comfortable on his home mound, where he boasts a microscopic 1.80 ERA. He also matches up beautifully against the Mets' lineup, limiting left-handed batters to a .183 batting average and a .568 OPS this season. Conversely, Christian Scott is in a dangerous spot against this Brewers lineup. Scott relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, throwing it 48.7% of the time, yet the offering carries a .351 opponent xwOBA. Milwaukee's power bats are poised to hit against that pitch: Andrew Vaughn hits .386 with a .435 xwOBA against four-seamers, and Garrett Mitchell brings a stellar .413 xwOBA against them. Furthermore, the defensive disparity between these two clubs is staggering. Because both starting pitchers lean fly-ball—with Henderson holding a 0.49 GO/AO and Scott showing a 0.61 GO/AO—having an elite defense is paramount. The Brewers have committed just 41 errors this year, while the Mets have committed 69 errors, which exposes Scott to unearned runs and extended, taxing innings. In the late frames, the bullpen advantage tilts heavily toward the home team. Milwaukee's primary weapons, Trevor Megill (15 SV, 2.84 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) and Abner Uribe (2.43 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), are fully rested, while the Mets had to use Devin Williams and Luke Weaver in yesterday's game. Even though the Brewers are adjusting to the fresh losses of Sal Frelick and David Hamilton, who were placed on the injured list yesterday, their massive depth and organizational pitching superiority are more than enough to offset these absences. At -158 on the moneyline, the Brewers at home, where they are 33-19, represent outstanding value against a Mets team that is 22-31 on the road. Trust the underlying pitching metrics, the defensive stability, and the rested bullpen to deliver a Milwaukee win.

Brewers ML-158

CONF

78%

MLB2:10 PM

Giants @ Royals

An afternoon battle unfolds under the Kansas City sun at Kauffman Stadium, where the wind is blowing in at nine miles per hour from left field as the Giants look to salvage the series finale against the Royals. The market is pricing this close to a coin-flip, but a deeper look at the mound matchup and roster availability reveals a massive edge for the visitors. Landen Roupp takes the hill for San Francisco, carrying a 3.98 ERA that is supported by an elite 3.41 xERA. Roupp has been spectacular in daytime starts, pitching to a 2.37 Day ERA, and his ability to generate ground balls (1.52 GO/AO) and limit hard contact (3.9% barrel rate, 28.8% hard-hit rate) makes him the perfect fit for this environment. He matches up beautifully against a Kansas City lineup that is missing its biggest offensive weapon, Bobby Witt Jr., due to back spasms, as well as Jac Caglianone due to shoulder soreness. Without these core bats, the Royals' offense lacks the firepower to exploit Roupp, who already limits left-handed hitters to a .218 average and .648 OPS. On the other side, Seth Lugo is a major regression candidate. While Lugo possesses a 4.39 ERA, his expected metrics are highly concerning, including a 5.53 xERA, a 9.6% barrel rate allowed, and a 43.9% hard-hit rate allowed. Lugo has been especially vulnerable during the day, posting a 5.68 Day ERA. He faces a Giants lineup featuring seven left-handed or switch hitters, which is a dangerous matchup considering Lugo allows an .807 OPS to lefties. Rafael Devers, in particular, has dominated Lugo throughout his career, going 4-for-8 with two home runs and a 1.806 OPS. Casey Schmitt, filling in for Matt Chapman, also brings immediate power to the lineup with 19 home runs and a .782 OPS. The disparity grows even wider in the late innings. The Royals' bullpen is in a full-blown fatigue crisis, with high-leverage arms Alex Lange and John Schreiber completely unavailable after pitching three consecutive days. With a gassed relief unit that already carries a 5.38 ERA, Kansas City will have a very difficult time securing the late innings. Meanwhile, the Giants' bullpen remains in much better shape, with a fresh Jason Foley and a highly effective JT Brubaker (2.74 ERA) ready to close things down. Laying the reasonable price of -130 on the Giants to salvage the finale and break their four-game skid is the sharpest play on the board.

Giants ML-130

CONF

82%

MLB3:10 PM

Nationals @ Rockies

The thin, 93-degree air of Denver sets the stage as the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies meet at Coors Field for a high-stakes afternoon series finale. While the Rockies play for spoiler at home, the Nationals enter this rubber match with intense postseason urgency, sitting just 1.5 games back in the Wild Card race. To survive in a park carrying a massive 1.28 park factor, a pitcher must control the air. Cade Cavalli brings a stable 6-4 record, 3.78 ERA (4.14 xERA), and a vital 1.24 GO/AO ground-ball ratio into today's start, which is exactly the profile needed to keep the ball in the yard at Coors. Cavalli has logged quality-length starts in four of his last five outings and features elite strikeout upside, racking up 119 strikeouts over 104.2 innings. Compare that to Colorado's Gabriel Hughes, who is making just his third start of the season with 14.1 total innings under his belt. Hughes is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 0.73 GO/AO ratio, a dangerous metric in high altitude, and his heavy reliance on a 93 mph four-seamer (55% usage) is a recipe for trouble against Washington's powerful lineup. The matchup gets even worse for Hughes when looking at the platoon splits. Hughes allows a .286 average and a .712 OPS to left-handed hitters, and Washington's confirmed lineup features seven left-handed or switch-hitting bats. At the top of the order, James Wood (1.014 OPS vs righties) and CJ Abrams (.967 OPS vs righties, 1.023 road OPS) are primed to feast. Wood and Abrams have absolutely crushed four-seam fastballs this season, sporting expected weighted on-base averages (xwOBA) of .463 and .372 respectively against the pitch. With Luis Garcia Jr. and Jose Tena joining them in the top four, the Nationals possess a relentless left-handed assault that should get to Hughes early and often, exposing a Colorado bullpen that had to cover 5.1 innings yesterday. While both relief units are heavily taxed after yesterday's high-scoring affair, the Nationals are the far superior team away from home. Washington is an exceptional road team, sporting a 31-20 away record compared to a 20-31 home mark. Colorado, on the other hand, is just 24-28 at home and is 21 games under .500 overall at 41-62. Washington's bullpen has certainly had its struggles, including an MLB-leading 27 blown saves, which makes laying the run line at Coors Field a dangerous proposition. However, behind Cavalli's ground-ball profile and a lineup perfectly constructed to dismantle Hughes' fastball-heavy approach, backing the Nationals on the moneyline at -142 is the sharpest way to play this matchup.

Nationals ML-142

CONF

72%

MLB3:40 PM

Athletics @ Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks and Athletics clash in an afternoon rubber match at Chase Field, where two teams heading in opposite directions look to secure a hard-fought series victory. Arizona enters in excellent form, winning seven of their last ten games while averaging 5.5 runs per game. Tonight, the Diamondbacks' offense is primed to exploit Oakland's starting pitcher, Gage Jump. The left-hander is a fly-ball-heavy pitcher with a 0.60 GO/AO ratio. At the 1,100-foot altitude of Chase Field, fly balls carry, creating a highly hazardous environment for Jump against Arizona's top-of-the-order weapons who absolutely destroy southpaws. Corbin Carroll brings a massive 1.006 OPS against left-handed pitching into tonight's game, and Ketel Marte is right there with him, boasting a .937 OPS against lefties. While Merrill Kelly’s underlying metrics are concerning—highlighted by a 5.20 ERA and a league-worst 7.55 xERA—the Athletics are ill-equipped to exploit his high-barrel tendencies. Oakland’s offense is currently in a tailspin, going 2–8 over their last ten games while averaging a measly 3.5 runs per game. Crucially, the Athletics' lineup is highly depleted after losing rookie Joshua Kuroda-Grauer to emergency surgery yesterday, further weakening an offense that already lacks punch. This leaves them without the firepower to consistently punish Kelly's high barrel rate (13.8%). Furthermore, Arizona's elite defense (.990 fielding percentage, 36 errors) is perfectly built to convert Kelly's fly balls (0.86 GO/AO) into outs. Oakland, meanwhile, features a weaker .988 fielding percentage and has 42 errors, while playing catcher Tyler Soderstrom out of position in left field, leaving them highly vulnerable behind Jump’s fly-ball-heavy profile. The final blow to Oakland’s chances comes in the late innings, where bullpen depth is heavily tilted in Arizona's favor. Although Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald is likely unavailable due to fatigue, Arizona’s middle relief remains highly reliable with key setup options like Brandyn Garcia (1.75 ERA) and Jonathan Loaisiga (2.08 ERA). The Athletics, on the other hand, are severely compromised. They placed setup man Mark Leiter Jr. (3.15 ERA) on the IL yesterday and have likely taxed closer Hogan Harris. This leaves Oakland to rely on high-ERA relief options such as Elvis Alvarado (5.59 ERA) and Scott Barlow (6.48 ERA). Backing the hot-hitting home team with a massive defensive and late-inning advantage at a reasonable -130 price is the sharpest move on the board.

Diamondbacks ML-130

CONF

72%

MLB3:40 PM

Reds @ Mariners

The afternoon sun beats down on T-Mobile Park as the Seattle Mariners and Cincinnati Reds meet for a high-stakes rubber match in the Pacific Northwest. In a matchup where starting pitching splits and bullpen depth tell a massive story, Seattle stands out as the sharp side today. Cincinnati's Brady Singer has been thoroughly vulnerable on the road and in day games, posting a 6.14 ERA in those splits. More importantly, Singer struggles against left-handed hitters, allowing a .295 batting average and .878 OPS with 15 home runs to southpaws this year. This is a massive risk against a Seattle lineup loaded with lefties like Cole Young, Dominic Canzone, Josh Naylor, and Luke Raley, who are primed to jump on his 91.3 mph sinker and slider-heavy mix. Conversely, Emerson Hancock starts for Seattle in his best split, boasting a 2.92 ERA at home and a 2.80 ERA in day games. While Hancock has a high expected ERA of 4.34 relative to his actual 3.17 ERA, his stellar 1.01 WHIP at home has been highly effective. The environmental factors favor Seattle today as the high of 88 degrees under an open roof will carry the ball well, aiding left-handed power threats like Luke Raley, who owns a career 1.745 OPS with two home runs in ten at-bats against Singer. The late-inning picture is also heavily tilted toward Seattle. Cincinnati's bullpen is highly taxed after using five relievers to preserve yesterday's 4-2 win, including 30 pitches from Tejay Antone. On the other hand, Seattle's top arms—including closer Andrés Muñoz with his 17 saves and Gabe Speier—are fully rested. The defensive matchup also favors the home team, particularly behind the plate. Cal Raleigh's elite 39.2% caught-stealing rate is a perfect neutralizing force against the speed of Elly De La Cruz, while Tyler Stephenson has struggled with a 20.9% caught-stealing rate. Even with shortstop J.P. Crawford sidelined by a fresh wrist injury, the Mariners' structural advantages in starting pitching splits, a rested high-leverage bullpen, and an ideal matchup for their left-handed bats make them a strong play. Take the Mariners on the moneyline to wrap up the series.

Mariners ML-164

CONF

78%

MLB4:07 PM

Cardinals @ Angels

It is a beautiful, sun-drenched afternoon in Anaheim as the Los Angeles Angels look to complete a series sweep against the visiting St. Louis Cardinals at Angel Stadium. This afternoon clash features a massive starting pitching mismatch that is simply not being reflected in the current line. The Angels send lefty Reid Detmers to the mound, and while his standard 4.16 ERA looks average, his underlying metrics are stellar. Detmers boasts a 3.26 xERA and a .281 opponent xwOBA, proving that he has pitched far better than his actual results indicate. His primary weapon, a devastating slider that he throws 32.7% of the time, has held opposing hitters to an elite .184 xwOBA. This is bad news for the Cardinals' best threat against lefties, Jordan Walker, who is sporting a weak .198 xwOBA against sliders. Furthermore, key Cardinal bat Alec Burleson has struggled immensely in this platoon split, hitting for a meager .514 OPS against left-handed pitching. On the other side of the diamond, St. Louis counteracts with Hunter Dobbins, a right-hander whose 4.03 ERA is a mirage waiting to fade. Dobbins is a massive negative regression candidate, carrying a bloated 5.14 xERA. He has consistently struggled to suppress quality contact, allowing an alarming 48.4% hard-hit rate and an 11.3% barrel rate. To make matters worse, Dobbins has been hammered in day games on the road, where he has struggled to a 6.23 ERA. This afternoon, with temperatures hovering around 84°F and an 8 mph wind blowing out toward right field, he will have to navigate an Angels lineup that matches up exceptionally well against his high-velocity 4-seam fastball and sinker. Mike Trout (.848 OPS vs. RHP) and Wade Meckler (.855 OPS vs. RHP) are both primed to take advantage of Dobbins’ tendency to yield loud contact. While the Cardinals possess the superior overall record this season, they are currently mired in a four-game losing streak and have been held to just three total runs over the first two games of this series. The Angels have all the momentum after consecutive home victories, including a walk-off win in the opener. With their starting pitcher significantly underrated by the traditional ERA and the opposing starter heavily overrated, backing the home team at this price is a logical play. The Angels have the platoon advantages, the pitching edge, and the hot hand to sweep this series.

Angels ML-134

CONF

72%

MLB6:40 PM

Dodgers @ Phillies

We've got a hot summer night in Philadelphia as the Phillies and Dodgers wrap up a high-stakes series under the lights at Citizens Bank Park. This matchup offers an absolute textbook opportunity to fade a bloated surface number and back some massive positive regression on the mound. While Aaron Nola carries a deceptive 5.68 ERA into tonight's start, his 4.20 xERA and .316 xwOBA indicate he has pitched far better than his actual results suggest. His primary weapon, the knuckle curve, remains elite with a 41.3% whiff rate and a tiny .248 xwOBA. Nola faces a Dodgers offense that has been held to just 3.5 runs per game over their last 10 games, setting up a prime bounce-back environment for the Phillies' right-hander. On the other side, Dodgers starter Eric Lauer is walking into a dangerous situation. Lauer relies heavily on a 90.9 mph four-seam fastball that he throws 44% of the time, and that soft velocity is exactly what the Phillies' power hitters are built to punish. Bryce Harper (.465 xwOBA) and Kyle Schwarber (.410 xwOBA) both absolutely crush four-seamers. Even in a lefty-on-lefty matchup, Schwarber has posted an elite .961 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season. Furthermore, Lauer is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a low 0.51 GO/AO ratio. In a hitter-friendly park with a 1.06 factor and temperatures climbing to a warm 83°F at first pitch, Lauer's propensity for putting the ball in the air is highly likely to lead to quick damage. Should this game remain tight late, the advantage shifts heavily to Philadelphia's bullpen. The Phillies have their shutdown closer, Jhoan Duran, fully rested after throwing only three pitches since July 20. Duran boasts a dominant 1.32 ERA and 24 saves. Conversely, the Dodgers' high-leverage arms are highly taxed; Tanner Scott was pushed to a five-out save yesterday, throwing 1.2 innings, while Evan Phillips has thrown 32 pitches over the last three days. At home, with a clear advantage in starting pitcher regression, offensive matchup optimization against Lauer's fastball, and a much fresher late-inning bullpen, getting the Phillies at plus money is the sharpest play on the board.

Phillies ML+102

CONF

72%

MLB6:40 PM

Twins @ Guardians

We’ve got a high-stakes divisional battle shaping up at Progressive Field tonight as the first-place Cleveland Guardians look to complete a sweep of the reeling Minnesota Twins. The books have the Guardians priced as -144 home favorites, and frankly, we are getting a bargain on a matchup that is completely tilted in Cleveland's favor. The story of this game starts on the mound with Twins starter Bailey Ober, who carries some of the most lopsided home/away splits in baseball. While Ober is highly effective at home, he has been a disaster on the road, posting a 6.90 away ERA this season. His fly-ball-leaning profile (0.62 GO/AO) is highly vulnerable to left-handed power, having surrendered 10 of his 13 home runs this year to left-handed hitters—averaging a home run allowed every 16 at-bats against them. To exploit this massive platoon vulnerability, Cleveland is sending out a lineup with nine left-handed or switch hitters tonight. This includes the massive return of superstar José Ramírez, who was activated today after missing five weeks with hand surgery. Ramírez is a documented nemesis for Ober, boasting a career .321 average and a 1.013 OPS with two home runs in 28 at-bats against him. In contrast, Cleveland's starter Slade Cecconi is backed by an elite defensive unit and a fresh, top-ten bullpen carrying a 3.76 ERA. Meanwhile, Minnesota's relief corps is highly depleted, missing four key arms like Anthony Banda and Cole Sands on the injured list, and heavily fatigued after using multiple relievers for 96 combined pitches yesterday. The Twins are in a four-game tailspin and have been outscored 18-6 over the first two games of this series. With Cleveland playing at home where several bats thrive and the pitching staff has a major late-inning advantage, the Guardians are in a prime position to extend the Twins' skid. Lay the price with the home team.

Guardians ML-144

CONF

85%

MLB7:07 PM

Rays @ Blue Jays

The roof is open at the Rogers Centre as the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays look to complete a dominant series sweep against a struggling Toronto Blue Jays squad. My read on this game is simple: the market is treating this as a pick'em because on paper, Griffin Jax's 4.08 ERA matches up evenly against Braydon Fisher's 3.65 ERA, but that is a major mispricing of tonight's reality. Fisher is serving strictly as an opener and has not thrown more than 1.1 innings in any of his last five starts, meaning Toronto must lean heavily on a bullpen that is stretched thin by five starting pitchers on the injured list. The bulk of the innings will fall to a reliever who has struggled to a 9.00 ERA over his last four appearances, while the Jays also must manage without outfielder Jonatan Clase, who was scratched today with a fresh foot injury. Meanwhile, the Rays' offense is absolutely rolling, outscoring Toronto 19-3 over the first two games of this series while posting an elite .366 xwOBA and .339 xBA over their last three games. Tampa Bay is sending out a lineup featuring seven left-handed and switch hitters to disrupt Toronto's right-handed pitching plan. This includes Yandy Diaz, who carries a .312 average and specifically crushes sliders—Fisher's primary pitch at 50% usage—to the tune of a .392 average and a .529 xwOBA. Combined with Junior Caminero's 29 home runs and .940 OPS, the Rays have the depth and platoon advantages to build a sustained attack against Toronto's taxed pitching staff. On the pitching side, even though Jax has a regression-threatened 5.31 xERA and a high 10.1% barrel rate allowed, he is backed by a superior defense and a pristine bullpen. The Rays' defense ranks second in the majors with 56 DRS, which provides elite positioning to clean up Jax's contact profile. Behind them stands the league's most efficient relief unit, allowing just 0.84 runs per game. Because of Tampa Bay's back-to-back blowout wins, the team's top-leverage arms—including their 25-save closer who carries a 1.69 ERA—are completely rested. When you compare that to a tired Blue Jays relief corps that had to push multiple relievers past 40 pitches yesterday, the advantage in the latter third of the game is entirely in the Rays' favor. At -108, the moneyline is an outstanding price to back the hotter, healthier team.

Rays ML-108

CONF

82%

MLB7:15 PM

Padres @ Braves

The Padres and Braves open their series at Truist Park in a high-stakes July battle, where San Diego looks to close the gap in the wild card race while Atlanta tries to protect its division lead. The starting pitching matchup features two arms trending in opposite directions. San Diego hands the ball to Michael King, who has been in outstanding form, pitching to a 2.54 ERA over his last five starts and carrying a 2.31 night ERA. Atlanta counters with left-hander Martín Pérez, who is making his first start since July 5 after a 17-day layoff due to a forearm contusion. Pérez's 3.54 ERA is shadowed by a 4.62 xERA, indicating that his season-long performance is built on a somewhat fragile foundation, and he will likely face a restricted pitch count in his return. San Diego's offense enters tonight in elite form, generating a remarkable .437 xwOBA and a 14.7% barrel rate over their last three games. They are well-equipped to handle the left-handed Pérez, featuring potent right-handed bats like Fernando Tatis Jr., who boasts an .893 OPS against lefties, and Ty France, who has compiled a .966 OPS against left-handed pitching. Although the Padres lost Miguel Andujar to a fractured right wrist on Monday, their lineup remains deep and highly aggressive. Conversely, King's matchup profile is tailor-made to suppress Atlanta's left-handed-heavy core. King limits left-handed hitters to a meager .204 batting average and a .592 OPS. This profile will be vital against Braves lefties like Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, and Michael Harris II, whose pull-side power will also be suppressed by an 8 mph wind blowing directly in from right field. The relief pitching dynamic heavily favors the Padres tonight. Atlanta's middle relief was severely overworked yesterday after starter Reynaldo Lopez lasted only 4.1 innings while surrendering five earned runs. If Pérez is on a limited pitch count as expected in his first game back, the Braves will be forced to dip early into a fatigued bullpen. San Diego, meanwhile, has its ultimate weapon waiting at the back end, as elite closer Mason Miller remains active and fully available to slam the door. With a sharp starting pitching edge, a fresh bullpen, and an offense clicking at the plate, the Padres are primed to take the series opener as a road underdog.

Padres ML+100

CONF

72%

MLB7:05 PM

Pirates @ Yankees

Night falls over the Bronx as the Pirates and Yankees prepare for the second act of today's split doubleheader at Yankee Stadium. After Pittsburgh's 5-3 extra-inning victory in Game 1, the Yankees are sending Max Fried to the mound to stabilize things, while the Pirates counter with young right-hander Bubba Chandler. This game is being priced heavily on Fried's reputation and season-long numbers, but a deeper look at the context reveals a glaring vulnerability in the Yankees' run prevention plan tonight. Fried is returning from the 15-day injured list ahead of schedule and skipping his final rehab start, meaning his workload will likely be capped around 75-80 pitches. Once Fried exits, a severely fatigued Yankees bullpen must take over. This unit is heavily taxed after a 10-inning Game 1 where closer David Bednar threw 22 pitches and setup man Fernando Cruz threw 24 pitches, meaning the late-inning safety net for New York is practically gone. The Pirates are uniquely equipped to capitalize on this bullpen crisis because of how they've structured their lineup to neutralize Fried's strengths. While Fried is nearly untouchable against lefties, holding them to a .148 average and .360 OPS, the Pirates have stacked their lineup with right-handed and switch-hitting power. Bryan Reynolds, who carries a career .812 OPS with a home run against Fried in 23 at-bats, and Esmerlyn Valdez, who boasts a massive 1.533 OPS against left-handed pitchers in a 38 at-bat sample, force Fried to pitch to his weaker platoon split where righties hit him for a .575 OPS. Even if Chandler faces trouble early against a left-handed-heavy Yankees lineup featuring Ben Rice (who has a 1.020 OPS against right-handers and a 1.000 slugging percentage against 4-seam fastballs), the Pirates' offense has the firepower to claw back in the middle and late innings against the depleted Yankee relievers. Taking the Pirates on the run line at +1.5 (-130) provides an incredibly strong safety net in a game that figures to have heavy variance. Chandler’s heavy fly-ball profile (0.68 GO/AO) in a park with an 8 mph wind blowing out to right field means there's a risk of early damage, but the Pirates’ late-game advantages are massive. While Pittsburgh’s bullpen is also tired, closer Gregory Soto is relatively fresh after throwing just 16 pitches in Game 1, and they have called up right-hander Noah Murdock as the 27th man to provide multi-inning relief. Against a Yankees lineup relying on its current configuration, the Pirates are primed to keep this game neck-and-neck until the very end, making the run line the smartest bet on the board.

Pirates +1.5-120

CONF

72%

MLB7:10 PM

Orioles @ Red Sox

Night falls on a muggy Fenway Park for the back half of today's split doubleheader, where the red-hot Red Sox look to sweep the day while the Orioles try to salvage a split. On paper, Boston’s historic 15-game winning streak makes them look like a runaway train, but the reality of a doubleheader is that it completely rewrites the rules of the late innings. The Red Sox took care of business with a 6-3 win in Game 1, but they had to burn their high-leverage bullpen arms to do it. Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock, and Justin Slaten all pitched in the afternoon, leaving Chapman and Whitlock on back-to-back days and likely unavailable for the nightcap. In contrast, the Orioles only used Alan Nuñez, leaving their primary setup and closing weapons completely fresh. This massive bullpen discrepancy is amplified by a starting pitching matchup that leans heavily in Baltimore's favor. Kyle Bradish is in peak form for the Orioles, averaging 7.1 innings per start over his last two outings while racking up 21 strikeouts and allowing just one earned run. On the other side, Eduardo Rivera is a short-starter who has not completed four innings in any of his appearances this year, maxing out at 3.2 innings. This means Boston's depleted bullpen will be asked to carry a massive workload of five or more innings. Baltimore's right-handed power bats, led by Pete Alonso, are well-positioned to attack Rivera’s high fastball usage, where he throws his 95.3 mph heater nearly 60% of the time. While the Orioles are dealing with a catching crisis of their own with Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo both landing on the injured list, having a true frontline starter like Bradish on the mound helps neutralize that defensive instability. At approximately 83°F at first pitch with a 13-15 mph wind blowing out to center field, this environment is set up for scoring, and the team that can protect its lead in the late frames wins the day. With Baltimore's top-tier relievers fully rested and Bradish capable of pitching deep, the Orioles represent massive value at +104 to snap Boston's streak and secure the split.

Orioles ML+104

CONF

72%

MLB8:00 PM

Tigers @ Cubs

Welcome back to Wrigley Field, where the late-afternoon shadows are stretching across the ivy as the Chicago Cubs look to build on yesterday's blowout win over the visiting Detroit Tigers under a clear July sky. The Cubs are highly formidable at Wrigley with a 30-21 home record, while the Tigers are just 20-31 on the road this season. Detroit's pitching situation has entered a crisis point today, with Jack Flaherty placed on the 15-day injured list due to right flexor inflammation and Casey Mize already sidelined with groin tightness. This has forced Keider Montero (6-5, 3.22 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) back into the starting rotation after spending the last month in the bullpen. Because Montero has not exceeded 4.0 innings in over a month, he will likely be on a short leash, which spells disaster for Detroit's critically fatigued bullpen. The disparity between these two relief groups is a massive mismatch. The Tigers' bullpen is exhausted after being forced to use position players Zach McKinstry and Jake Rogers to finish yesterday's game, and late-inning arms Jansen (28 pitches yesterday) and Finnegan (26 pitches) are highly taxed. Conversely, the Cubs' bullpen is fully rested, with closer Webb throwing only 15 pitches and Thielbar throwing just 5 yesterday. Furthermore, the Cubs' defense provides a premier safety net, ranking first in MLB with 65 DRS and 41 OAA, anchored by Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 18 OAA. On the flip side, Detroit’s defense is a major liability, ranking 25th with -9 DRS. This stellar defense gives Cubs starter Colin Rea (7-6, 4.74 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 5.46 xERA) a significant cushion that Montero simply will not have. Although Colin Rea's season-long ERA and 5.46 xERA indicate regression risk, he has been highly effective at Wrigley Field, pitching to a strong 2.94 ERA. Tonight's game environment is tailor-made for him, with 10-11 mph winds blowing directly in from center/left field to suppress fly-ball home runs. The Cubs' offense, averaging 5.1 R/G on a .246 average and 0.753 OPS, has far more run support capability than Detroit's lineup, which averages just 4.2 R/G on a .234 average and 0.711 OPS. Facing a short-lived starter and an exhausted Tigers bullpen, the Cubs are in a prime spot to win tonight. I am taking the Cubs on the moneyline at a very generous -120 price.

Cubs ML-120

CONF

85%

MLB8:05 PM

White Sox @ Rangers

We've got a high-stakes rubber match tonight deep in the heart of Texas, as the White Sox and Rangers settle their three-game series under the climate-controlled roof of Globe Life Field. This matchup screams value on the home underdogs. Let's start with White Sox starter Anthony Kay, who is skating on incredibly thin ice. On paper, his 4.24 ERA looks serviceable, but the underlying metrics tell a completely different story: Kay is carrying a massive 5.35 xERA, signaling heavy regression is imminent. He has struggled terribly on the road with a 5.80 Away ERA and exhibits a glaring platoon vulnerability against right-handed hitters, allowing an .839 OPS and 11 of his 13 home runs to righties this season. Furthermore, Kay is pitching on short rest, having thrown 4.0 innings of relief just five days ago on Friday. He is facing a Rangers lineup loaded with right-handed power at the top, including Justin Foscue, who boasts a 1.038 OPS against lefties, and Wyatt Langford, who dominates Kay's primary slider with a .470 xwOBA. On the other side, Texas is playing chess with a highly effective opener strategy. Left-hander Tyler Alexander starts the game, and he has been completely flawless in this role, posting a 1.96 Home ERA and throwing exactly 1.0 scoreless inning in each of his last three starts. Alexander is perfectly positioned to neutralize the top of Chicago's order, where Sam Antonacci and Munetaka Murakami both combine for sub-.750 OPS marks against lefties. Once Alexander sets the tone, righty Cal Quantrill will take over the bulk relief duties. While Quantrill has been a bit up-and-down with a 4.29 ERA over his last five appearances, he gets to face a White Sox team that is highly vulnerable on the road (22-30 Away record) and was completely blanked 10-0 on Tuesday. To close things out, the Rangers have the ultimate trump card in elite closer Jacob Latz, who has locked down 19 saves with a minuscule 1.57 ERA. While the Rangers are dealing with some key absences like Josh Jung and Corey Seager, their righty-heavy lineup matches up perfectly to exploit Kay's weaknesses early. Backing the Rangers at home as plus-money underdogs is the sharp play tonight.

Rangers ML+104

CONF

78%

MLB8:10 PM

Marlins @ Astros

We’ve got a fascinating clash under the closed roof at Daikin Park tonight as the Houston Astros look to complete a series sweep against the sliding Miami Marlins. On the mound, Peter Lambert gets the nod for Houston, bringing a massive matchup advantage. Lambert has put together a stellar campaign, going 8-5 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He has been absolutely devastating against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .142 batting average and a .496 OPS, powered by a changeup that boasts a 33.1% whiff rate and a .202 xwOBA. That is statistical poison for a Marlins lineup that is rolling out five left-handed or switch-hitters tonight, including Kyle Stowers, Xavier Edwards, Liam Hicks, Griffin Conine, and Joe Mack. Lambert is in a prime position to neutralize Miami’s left-handed core and control this game from the start. Conversely, Sandy Alcantara is starting on altered rest for Miami after throwing six innings of relief on July 17, thrust into this spot because teammate Max Meyer went to the IL with a fresh neck strain on July 20. Alcantara is a proven workhorse with a 10-5 record and a 3.89 ERA, but he faces a brutal matchup. Yordan Alvarez, who sports a monstrous 1.203 OPS at home, matches up perfectly against Alcantara’s 97.4 mph sinker, carrying a .523 xwOBA against that specific pitch. Additionally, Christian Walker has crushed Alcantara to the tune of a .357 batting average and a home run in 14 career at-bats, while Jeremy Peña enters hitting .345 in his home park. Alcantara’s ground-ball profile will also test a shaky Miami defense that has committed a league-high 65 errors and is playing with shortstop Otto Lopez battling hand discomfort. This matchup features two clubs heading in opposite directions. Houston has taken the first two games of this series, outscoring the Marlins 13-8, while Miami is mired in a season-worst eight-game losing streak and struggles on the road at 21-30. Miami's bullpen is highly depleted with late-inning arms Anthony Bender and John King sidelined, leaving a volatile Pete Fairbanks to navigate tight spots. With superior defensive stability, fresh middle relief, and the perfect starter on the mound, the Astros are primed to complete the sweep. Getting the surging home team at a very reasonable moneyline of -116 is a clear value spot. Back the Astros to get it done tonight.

Astros ML-116

CONF

85%

Player props

MLB · Pirates @ Yankees

Ben Rice

The matchup between Mitch Keller and the Yankees' left-handed heavy lineup is the central focus of this game. Keller has been historically vulnerable to lefties this season, surrendering a .843 OPS and 11 of his 13 home runs to that side.

OVER 2.5 H+R+RBI+110

· Mitch Keller vs LHB: .843 OPS / 11 HR allowed (254 AB)
· Ben Rice: .966 OPS / 29 HR in 352 AB
· Break-even probability: 48% (+110)

MLB · Pirates @ Yankees

Esmerlyn Valdez

While Gerrit Cole is generally dominant at home, his 2026 splits reveal a significant opening for right-handed hitters, who are batting .289 against him. Esmerlyn Valdez has emerged as the Pirates' premier right-handed power threat, maintaining a massive 1.127 OPS and hitting 13 home runs in a limited sample of just 108 at-bats.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-108

· Gerrit Cole vs RHB: .289 AVG allowed in 2026
· Esmerlyn Valdez: 1.127 OPS / 13 HR in 108 AB
· Weather: 83°F / 10 mph wind out to CF

MLB · Orioles @ Red Sox

Wilyer Abreu

The clear statistical edge in this matchup is Dean Kremer's persistent struggle against left-handed bats. He enters this start allowing a massive .980 OPS and a home run every 9.1 at-bats to lefties (7 HR in 64 AB).

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-117

· Dean Kremer allowing .980 OPS and 7 HR to LHB (64 AB) this season
· Kremer 11.9% Barrel% allowed in 2026 starts
· Weather: 83 degrees with 11 mph wind blowing out to center field at Fenway

MLB · Giants @ Royals

Rafael Devers

This is a classic 'get-right' spot for Rafael Devers, despite his recent cold stretch. Seth Lugo has been pitching way above his head this season; his 4.39 ERA is masked by a 5.53 xERA, suggesting he's been extremely lucky with balls in play.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+115

· Rafael Devers: 4-for-8 (.500) career vs Seth Lugo with 2 HR
· Seth Lugo: 5.53 xERA vs 4.39 actual ERA (1.14 regression gap)
· Lugo vs LHB: .289 AVG / .807 OPS allowed this season

MLB · Giants @ Royals

Carter Jensen

Landen Roupp has struggled with his command all season, posting a high walk rate of nearly four batters per nine innings. His control issues are particularly pronounced when facing left-handed hitters, to whom he has issued 32 walks in just 216 at-bats.

OVER 0.5 Walks+117

· Landen Roupp: 45 walks in 104.0 IP (3.9 BB/9)
· Roupp vs LHB: 32 walks in 216 at-bats (high-frequency walk tendency)
· Carter Jensen: 14 HR this season, commanding respect in the zone

MLB · Nationals @ Rockies

James Wood

James Wood is positioned as the leadoff hitter for a Nationals offense that should thrive in this afternoon's 93-degree heat at Coors Field. Wood is an elite power-speed threat with 28 home runs and a .957 OPS this season, and his production is heavily skewed toward right-handed matchups.

OVER 2.5 H+R+RBI-130

· James Wood vs RHP: .280 AVG, 1.014 OPS, 20 HR (250 AB)
· Gabriel Hughes vs LHB: .286 AVG allowed in 2026 stint
· Game-time temp: 93°F at Coors Field (elevated carry)

MLB · Nationals @ Rockies

Mickey Moniak

Mickey Moniak is a fundamentally different hitter at Coors Field, where his OPS (1.048) and batting average (.313) are significantly higher than his road splits. Today he bats second and faces Cade Cavalli, a high-velocity righty who has shown vulnerability against left-handed hitters this year.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-110

· Mickey Moniak at Home (Coors): .313 AVG, 1.048 OPS, 13 HR
· Cade Cavalli vs LHB: .286 AVG, .778 OPS, 7 HR allowed (238 AB)
· Moniak vs RHP: .293 AVG, .959 OPS, 14 HR

MLB · Mets @ Brewers

Garrett Mitchell

Garrett Mitchell is currently the hottest hand in the Brewers' lineup, entering this contest with multi-hit performances in three of his last four starts. While Christian Scott is a formidable pitcher, he leans toward a fly-ball profile (0.61 GO/AO), which plays into Mitchell's current ability to find gaps and generate extra-base hits.

OVER 0.5 Total Bases-160

· Multi-hit games in 3 of last 4 starts (7 total hits)
· .302 AVG at American Family Field this season
· Needs >61.5% win probability at -160 odds

MLB · Athletics @ Diamondbacks

Jacob Wilson

Jacob Wilson is currently the most locked-in hitter in this matchup, entering today with a scorching .390 average over his last 10 games. He has been a total bases machine lately, clearing this 1.5 line in four of his last five outings, often through multiple hits or extra-base power.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+124

· Jacob Wilson: .390 AVG over last 10 games
· Merrill Kelly: 13.8% Barrel% and 7.55 xERA in 2026
· Wilson's L5 Total Bases: 4, 5, 2, 6, 1 (80% success rate)

MLB · Athletics @ Diamondbacks

Gabriel Moreno

While much of the Diamondbacks' core has cooled off, Gabriel Moreno remains a model of consistency, slashing .378 over his last 10 games and finding multiple ways to contribute to the box score. Batting cleanup tonight, Moreno is the focal point for an Arizona team that has won 7 of its last 10 and continues to put up competitive run totals.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-137

· Gabriel Moreno: .378 AVG over last 10 games
· Moreno's L5 Hits+Runs+RBIs: 3, 1, 1, 4, 3 (60% success rate)
· Diamondbacks L10 Record: 7-3 (high team run environment)

MLB · Reds @ Mariners

Dominic Canzone

Dominic Canzone enters this afternoon matchup in a prime position to exploit the primary weakness of Reds starter Brady Singer. This season, Singer has been significantly more vulnerable to left-handed hitters, surrendering a .295 AVG and an .878 OPS to the left side compared to a much sturdier .234 AVG against righties.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+131

· Brady Singer vs LHB: .295 AVG, .878 OPS, 15 HR allowed
· Dominic Canzone in Day Games: .321 AVG
· Break-even probability for Over 1.5 (+131): 43.3%

MLB · Reds @ Mariners

Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz is currently on a blistering hot streak, hitting .350 (14-for-40) with 4 home runs and a 1.046 OPS against lefties over his last 10 games. Today he faces Emerson Hancock, whose 3.17 ERA is heavily masked by a 4.34 xERA, indicating he has been the beneficiary of significant luck regarding hard contact. De La Cruz possesses the elite exit velocity to punish Hancock’s expected regression, and his world-class speed allows him to turn standard singles into doubles, clearing this 1.5 total base line with a single swing. As the leadoff hitter, Elly is guaranteed maximum plate appearances, providing multiple opportunities to capitalize on the warm 88-degree conditions in Seattle which will aid ball carry for his high-velocity batted balls.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+123

· Elly De La Cruz Last 10 Games: .350 AVG, 4 HR
· Emerson Hancock: 3.17 ERA vs 4.34 xERA
· Break-even probability for Over 1.5 (+123): 44.8%

MLB · Cardinals @ Angels

Jordan Walker

Walker is a verified lefty-crusher, slashing .309/.391/.571 against southpaws this year. While Detmers is a high-K arm, his vulnerability is to right-handed power, surrendering 10 of his 12 homers to RHB. With wind blowing out to RF and Walker's elite .962 OPS split, he is in a prime spot to collect multiple bases.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+116

· Walker .962 OPS vs LHP this season
· Walker .571 SLG vs LHP this season
· Detmers 10 of 12 HR allowed to RHB in 2026

MLB HR · Pirates @ Yankees

Ben Rice

1. THE PICK: Ben Rice OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310)

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+310

· Season: 29 HR in 352 AB (8.2% HR/AB rate)
· L15 Days: 4 HR in 37 AB (.405 AVG, 1.314 OPS)
· Opposing SP Mitch Keller vs LHB: .822 OPS allowed, 11 HR in 270 AB

MLB HR · Nationals @ Rockies

James Wood

James Wood boasts exceptional power against right-handed pitching, slamming 20 of his 28 home runs against RHP in 250 at-bats this season (an 8.0% home run rate per at-bat). Facing Rockies right-hander Gabriel Hughes, who allows a fly-ball leaning contact profile with a 0.74 GO/AO ratio, Wood is well-positioned at Coors Field.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+370

· 20 HR in 250 AB vs RHP (8.0% HR/AB rate)
· Break-even win probability at +370 odds is 21.28%
· Opposing SP Gabriel Hughes holds a fly-ball leaning 0.74 GO/AO ratio at Coors Field

MLB · Dodgers @ Phillies

Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani is currently in one of his trademark power surges, having launched three home runs in his last five games according to raw game logs. Tonight he faces Aaron Nola, a veteran who has struggled significantly against left-handed power this season, surrendering 13 of his 23 home runs to lefties and allowing an .843 OPS to the platoon. Ohtani’s season-long dominance against right-handed pitching (.940 OPS) aligns perfectly with Nola's vulnerability. With the temperature at 83 degrees in a park that traditionally yields high home run numbers, Ohtani is in a prime position to clear this line with a single swing or multiple hits.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-124

· Aaron Nola vs LHB: .843 OPS and 13 HR allowed in 2026
· Shohei Ohtani L5 games: 3 HR and 3 games with 4+ Total Bases
· Temperature 83 degrees at first pitch with 9 mph wind carry

MLB · Dodgers @ Phillies

Max Muncy

While Ohtani gets the headlines, Max Muncy has been equally dangerous in the heart of the Dodgers' order. Muncy has recorded 2 or more total bases in four of his last five games, including two home runs in that stretch.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+120

· Aaron Nola vs LHB: .843 OPS and 13 HR allowed in 2026
· Max Muncy TB L5: 4, 2, 0, 3, 4 (4 of 5 games cleared 1.5)
· Muncy vs RHP: 14 HR and .863 OPS this season

MLB HR · Dodgers @ Phillies

Shohei Ohtani

The 'Gary Special' double-down on Ohtani's power. If Ohtani is clearing his total bases line tonight, history and current form suggest he's doing it over the fence.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+200

· Shohei Ohtani: 3 HR in last 5 games played
· Aaron Nola: 13 HR allowed to LHB in 237 ABs (approx 1 per 18 AB)
· Ohtani 22 HR on the season with .940 OPS vs RHP

MLB · Rays @ Blue Jays

Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero is the power engine for a Tampa Bay offense that has been relentless in this series, outscoring Toronto 19-3 over the first two games. Caminero enters tonight on a five-game hitting streak and faces a Blue Jays 'bullpen game' that is currently stretched thin by injuries.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-126

· Batting .288 with a .940 OPS on the season
· Recorded at least one hit in each of his last five games
· Cleared this 1.5 HRR line in 3 of his last 5 games

MLB · Padres @ Braves

Ty France

While the marquee names in San Diego draw the public's attention, Ty France has quietly become the team's most reliable asset against left-handed pitching. Tonight, he faces Martín Pérez, a southpaw making his first start in over two weeks due to a forearm injury. France's platoon splits are exceptional, posting a .966 OPS against lefties this season compared to his .858 against righties.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-121

· Ty France averages 0.338 AVG and 0.966 OPS against left-handed pitching this season
· France has cleared 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in each of his last five games (recent outputs: 3, 4, 9, 2, 4)
· Over -121 odds require a break-even win probability of 54.8%

MLB · Twins @ Guardians

Steven Kwan

Steven Kwan is currently the hottest contact hitter in the Cleveland lineup, entering tonight with a .433 batting average over his last 10 games. He has recorded multiple total bases in four of his last five starts, consistently finding the gaps even without elite power.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+145

· Kwan L10 AVG: .433 (13-for-30)
· Ober Road ERA: 6.90
· Kwan TB L5 games: [2, 0, 2, 4, 2]

MLB · Tigers @ Cubs

Colt Keith

Colin Rea has been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this season, sporting a 4.74 ERA that is nearly three-quarters of a run lower than his 5.46 xERA. His primary struggle is against left-handed hitting, surrendering a .299 average to the platoon.

OVER 0.5 Total Bases-170

· Colin Rea allows .299 AVG / .797 OPS to LHB this season
· Colt Keith is batting .304 (7-for-23) over his last 10 games
· Rea's 5.46 xERA suggests significant negative regression from his 4.74 ERA baseline

MLB · White Sox @ Rangers

Jake Burger

Jake Burger is the centerpiece of the Rangers' right-handed attack against White Sox lefty Anthony Kay. Kay is a prime regression candidate whose 5.35 xERA is more than a full run higher than his actual ERA, largely because he is getting hammered by righties (.278 AVG, .839 OPS).

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-110

· .342 AVG vs LHP
· Anthony Kay 5.35 xERA vs 4.24 ERA
· Kay .278 AVG allowed to RHB

MLB · White Sox @ Rangers

Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami is the most dangerous power threat on either roster, and tonight's environment at Globe Life Field plays perfectly to his statistical strengths. Murakami's splits are drastic: he is a night-game specialist, posting a monstrous 1.127 OPS under the lights compared to .643 during the day. While Texas is starting a lefty (Alexander), it is a 'reverse split' matchup—Alexander actually allows a .309 average to left-handed hitters.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+125

· 1.127 OPS in Night Games
· Tyler Alexander .309 AVG allowed to LHB
· .978 OPS vs RHP (Quantrill)

MLB · Marlins @ Astros

Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez is currently the hottest hitter in the Astros lineup, carrying a .457 average over his last 10 games and exceeding this total bases line in five straight contests. While Sandy Alcantara possesses elite velocity, his primary vulnerability this season has been left-handed power; he has surrendered 71% of his total home runs (10 of 14) to lefties despite facing significantly more right-handed batters. Alvarez's 1.082 season OPS and high-contact recent form make him a nightmare matchup for Alcantara's sinker-heavy approach, particularly as Alvarez hitting second ensures he sees maximum volume tonight.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-115

· Alvarez: .457 AVG / 4 HR last 10 games
· Alcantara: 10 of 14 HR allowed to LHB in 2026
· Alvarez: 2+ Total Bases in 5 consecutive games

Hub research

167

starter_team_recordLAD @ PHI
Dodgers 7-0 in Eric Lauer's last 7 starts
Dodgers are 7-0 in Eric Lauer's last 7 starts this season — winners of his last 7 in a row. He starts tonight.
bullpen_fatigueOAK @ ARI
Arizona Diamondbacks pen: 16.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Arizona Diamondbacks's bullpen has thrown 16.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
bullpen_fatigueDET @ CHC
Detroit Tigers pen: 18 relief IP over their last 3 games
Detroit Tigers's bullpen has thrown 18 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
platoon_edgeTB @ TOR
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Griffin Jax (RHP)
Over 182 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .815 OPS versus .310 in 32 AB the other way. He sees RHP Griffin Jax tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
starter_team_recordTB @ TOR
Blue Jays 1-7 in Braydon Fisher's last 8 starts
Blue Jays are 1-7 in Braydon Fisher's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
head_to_headTB @ TOR
Rays are 8-2 vs Blue Jays this season
Rays lead the season series 8-2 over Blue Jays. TB won the last meeting 12-2.
platoon_edgeBAL @ BOS
Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 5th spot
Coby Mayo's vs. Left line (1.074 OPS, 79 AB) sits well above his .455 mark the other way (156 AB). Tonight's starter Jake Bennett throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
streakingCHW @ TEX
TEX games have gone OVER 6 straight
Texas Rangers games have gone OVER 6 straight — 12.2 runs a night against an average line of 8.5. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.
platoon_edgeCHW @ TEX
Justin Foscue (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
Justin Foscue's vs. Left line (1.038 OPS, 64 AB) sits well above his .622 mark the other way (53 AB). Tonight's starter Anthony Kay throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
streakingBAL @ BOS
BOS have won 6 straight
Boston Red Sox have won 6 straight, outscoring teams by 22 runs over the run; 6-0 across their last 6.
heat_checkSD @ ATL
Ty France: 1.600 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.600 OPS spans the last 15 days (30 PA) against a .889 season baseline, a 0.711 swing. He has 15 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
bullpen_fatiguePIT @ NYY
New York Yankees pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
New York Yankees's bullpen has thrown 15.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
bullpen_fatiguePIT @ NYY
New York Yankees pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
New York Yankees's bullpen has thrown 15.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
head_to_headMIA @ HOU
Astros are 6-2 vs Marlins this season
Astros lead the season series 6-2 over Marlins. HOU won the last meeting 5-3.
starter_team_recordCHW @ TEX
Rangers 6-2 in Tyler Alexander's last 8 starts
Rangers are 6-2 in Tyler Alexander's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordMIA @ HOU
Marlins 6-2 in Sandy Alcantara's last 8 starts
Marlins are 6-2 in Sandy Alcantara's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
platoon_edgeWSH @ COL
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (.959 OPS, 181 AB) sits well above his .625 mark the other way (44 AB). Tonight's starter Cade Cavalli throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
starter_team_recordDET @ CHC
Tigers 6-2 in Keider Montero's last 8 starts
Tigers are 6-2 in Keider Montero's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordDET @ CHC
Cubs 2-6 in Colin Rea's last 8 starts
Cubs are 2-6 in Colin Rea's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordNYM @ MIL
Mets 6-2 in Christian Scott's last 8 starts
Mets are 6-2 in Christian Scott's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordSF @ KC
Giants 2-6 in Landen Roupp's last 8 starts
Giants are 2-6 in Landen Roupp's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordOAK @ ARI
Diamondbacks 2-6 in Merrill Kelly's last 8 starts
Diamondbacks are 2-6 in Merrill Kelly's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordCIN @ SEA
Reds 2-6 in Brady Singer's last 8 starts
Reds are 2-6 in Brady Singer's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
platoon_edgeSF @ KC
Vinnie Pasquantino (bats L) hits 3rd against Landen Roupp (RHP)
Over 196 AB vs. Right, Vinnie Pasquantino owns a .754 OPS versus .416 in 78 AB the other way. He sees RHP Landen Roupp tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
platoon_edgeNYM @ MIL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.902 OPS, 268 AB) sits well above his .552 mark the other way (104 AB). Tonight's starter Christian Scott throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
rest_fatigueLAD @ PHI
18 bullpen innings in 3 games for LAD
Relievers have absorbed 18 innings over the last 3 games (Kyle Hurt (2) and Brock Stewart (2) the heaviest). PHI's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
streakingPIT @ NYY
NYY games have gone UNDER 5 straight
5 straight unders for NYY — their games are producing only 7.4 runs against numbers around 9.7. Tonight's number sits at 9.
gary_hr_threatsPirates @ Yankees
Ben Rice
1. THE PICK: Ben Rice OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310) 2.
platoon_edgeMIA @ HOU
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Peter Lambert (RHP), batting 2nd
Kyle Stowers carries a .817 OPS vs. Right (227 AB) against .514 the other way (61 AB), and faces RHP Peter Lambert from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
streakingBAL @ BOS
BOS have won 5 straight
BOS have taken 5 straight and own a +19 run differential over the run. Last 5: 5-0.
fantasy_pickupsOAK @ ARI
Tyler Soderstrom
Pickup vs Merrill Kelly (7.55 xERA) — .821 OPS, bats 2nd.
cooling_offLAD @ PHI
Kyle Tucker: .265 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Aaron Nola
Kyle Tucker's .265 OPS over the last 15 days (34 PA) trails his .696 season mark, down 0.431. Tonight he draws RHP Aaron Nola — his weaker side: a .686 OPS vs RHP across 243 AB.
platoon_edgeMIA @ HOU
Yordan Alvarez (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Yordan Alvarez's vs. Right line (1.160 OPS, 266 AB) sits well above his .869 mark the other way (102 AB). Tonight's starter Sandy Alcantara throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
platoon_edgeSF @ KC
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Rafael Devers's vs. Right line (.890 OPS, 261 AB) sits well above his .538 mark the other way (125 AB). Tonight's starter Seth Lugo throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
fantasy_pickupsOAK @ ARI
Shea Langeliers
Pickup vs Merrill Kelly (7.55 xERA) — .826 OPS, bats 3rd.
platoon_edgeWSH @ COL
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Luis Garcia Jr.'s vs. Right line (.898 OPS, 273 AB) sits well above his .608 mark the other way (44 AB). Tonight's starter Gabriel Hughes throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
gary_hr_threatsDodgers @ Phillies
Shohei Ohtani
The 'Gary Special' double-down on Ohtani's power. If Ohtani is clearing his total bases line tonight, history and current form suggest he's doing it over the fence.
running_gamePIT @ NYY
New York Yankees like to run — Henry Davis (54% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Henry Davis owns a 54% caught-stealing rate (14 of 26) and New York Yankees run anyway — 1 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
head_to_headSD @ ATL
Padres are 4-1 vs Braves this season
Padres lead the season series 4-1 over Braves. SD won the last meeting 8-3.
fantasy_pickupsOAK @ ARI
Carlos Cortes
Pickup vs Merrill Kelly (7.55 xERA) — .801 OPS, bats 4th.
ownedLAD @ PHI
Mookie Betts vs Aaron Nola: .417
In 24 career at-bats against Aaron Nola, Mookie Betts is 10-for-24 for a 1.208 OPS. The two square off again tonight. He enters steady (.734 OPS, L15).
heat_checkNYM @ MIL
Joey Ortiz: 1.011 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 40 PA: a 1.011 OPS versus .630 for the season, 0.381 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
platoon_edgeOAK @ ARI
Corbin Carroll (bats L) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Corbin Carroll's vs. Left line (1.006 OPS, 111 AB) sits well above his .736 mark the other way (250 AB). Tonight's starter Gage Jump throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
platoon_edgePIT @ NYY
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Gerrit Cole (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe carries a .865 OPS vs. Right (258 AB) against .617 the other way (110 AB), and faces RHP Gerrit Cole from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
bullpen_fatigueWSH @ COL
Colorado Rockies pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Colorado Rockies's bullpen has thrown 15 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
rest_fatiguePIT @ NYY
NYY's pen has logged 15.3 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 15.3 innings out of the pen — Brent Headrick (3) and Angel Chivilli (2.7) carried the load. PIT's pen has thrown 14.3 over the same span.
rest_fatigueOAK @ ARI
ARI's pen has logged 15.3 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 15.3 innings out of the pen — Kevin Ginkel (2) and Drey Jameson (2) carried the load. OAK's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
starter_formSD @ ATL
Martin Perez: 7.43 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 13.3 innings, 11 earned runs, 15 hits. That 7.43 ERA runs 3.88 over his 3.54 season number.
heat_checkTB @ TOR
Victor Mesa Jr.: 1.385 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (25 PA) he is at a 1.385 OPS, up 0.605 on his .780 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
cooling_offNYM @ MIL
Jackson Chourio: .524 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Christian Scott
Jackson Chourio's .524 OPS over the last 15 days (45 PA) trails his .816 season mark, down 0.292. Tonight he draws RHP Christian Scott — his weaker side: a .789 OPS vs RHP across 203 AB.
park_weatherPIT @ NYY
Wind blowing out 14 mph at Yankee Stadium tonight
Conditions at Yankee Stadium: Partly Cloudy, 83°, wind 14 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 9.
heat_checkMIN @ CLE
Chase DeLauter: 1.156 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 43 PA: a 1.156 OPS versus .811 for the season, 0.345 above his norm. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
cooling_offDET @ CHC
Kerry Carpenter: .071 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Colin Rea
Kerry Carpenter's .071 OPS over the last 15 days (26 PA) trails his .705 season mark, down 0.634. Tonight he draws RHP Colin Rea — his stronger side: a .737 OPS vs RHP across 196 AB.
heat_checkBAL @ BOS
Andruw Monasterio: 1.391 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.391 OPS spans the last 15 days (22 PA) against a .731 season baseline, a 0.66 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
ballpark_shiftPIT @ NYY
Max Fried's ERA jumps to 5.71 at Yankee Stadium
Max Fried carries a 5.71 ERA over 3 games (17.3 IP) at Yankee Stadium vs 2.23 across 44.3 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .219 off him here.
gary_hr_threatsDodgers @ Phillies
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber enters tonight's series finale boasting exceptional split metrics against left-handed pitching and at Citizens Bank Park. Schwarber has hit 33 home runs in 98 games this season, with 20 of those homers coming at home in 180 ABs (1.005 OPS).
ballpark_shiftDET @ CHC
Colin Rea owns a 2.94 ERA at Wrigley Field — 6.45 everywhere else
Across 9 games (49 IP) at Wrigley Field, Colin Rea has a 2.94 ERA against 6.45 at his other parks (51.7 IP). Hitters bat .242 off him here.
starter_formPIT @ NYY
Max Fried: 6.91 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (14.3 IP) he has been tagged for 11 earned runs — a 6.91 ERA with a 1.67 WHIP (1.01 season) against a 3.21 season mark.
gary_hr_threatsPadres @ Braves
Manny Machado
Manny Machado is locked into an exceptional power groove, hitting 3 home runs over his last 2 games at Truist Park (2 HR on July 21, 1 HR on July 20). Across his last 15 days, Machado has posted 4 HRs in 37 ABs with a 1.044 OPS.
rest_fatigueMIN @ CLE
14.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for MIN
Relievers have absorbed 14.7 innings over the last 3 games (Travis Adams (3) and Mike Paredes (3) the heaviest). CLE's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
heat_checkSTL @ LAA
Nolan Schanuel: 1.153 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 35 PA: a 1.153 OPS versus .757 for the season, 0.396 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
cooling_offCIN @ SEA
Dominic Canzone: .500 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brady Singer
Dominic Canzone's .500 OPS over the last 15 days (36 PA) trails his .841 season mark, down 0.341. Tonight he draws RHP Brady Singer — his weaker side: a .824 OPS vs RHP across 214 AB.
streakingPIT @ NYY
PIT have won 4 straight
Pittsburgh Pirates have won 4 straight, outscoring teams by 13 runs over the run; 4-2 across their last 6.
streakingMIA @ HOU
HOU games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for HOU — their games are producing only 7.8 runs against numbers around 8.8. Tonight's number sits at 8.
platoon_edgeBAL @ BOS
Taylor Ward (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Taylor Ward's vs. Left line (.900 OPS, 96 AB) sits well above his .694 mark the other way (275 AB). Tonight's starter Jake Bennett throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
regression_tomorrowTB @ TOR
Shane Bieber: 5.7 ERA vs 8.59 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TB. A 5.7 ERA against a 8.59 expected ERA (2.89 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .302 vs .324 expected.
streakingMIN @ CLE
MIN games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for MIN — their games are producing only 7 runs against numbers around 8.8. Tonight's number sits at 8.
rest_fatigueMIA @ HOU
14.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for HOU
Relievers have absorbed 14.7 innings over the last 3 games (Kai-Wei Teng (2.3) and Enyel De Los Santos (2.3) the heaviest). MIA's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
streakingPIT @ NYY
NYY games have gone UNDER 4 straight
The under has cashed 4 in a row in NYY games: 7.3 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 10. Tonight's number sits at 9.5.
streakingBAL @ BOS
BAL have won 4 straight
Baltimore Orioles have won 4 straight, outscoring teams by 14 runs over the run; 4-1 across their last 5.
streakingBAL @ BOS
BAL games have gone UNDER 4 straight
The under has cashed 4 in a row in BAL games: 7.5 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 9.1. Tonight's number sits at 9.25.
streakingOAK @ ARI
ARI games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for ARI — their games are producing only 9.8 runs against numbers around 11. Tonight's number sits at 9.
streakingCIN @ SEA
CIN games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for CIN — their games are producing only 6.3 runs against numbers around 10.9. Tonight's number sits at 6.25.
streakingSTL @ LAA
LAA games have gone UNDER 4 straight
The under has cashed 4 in a row in LAA games: 5 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 7.8. Tonight's number sits at 7.5.
regression_watchPIT @ NYY
Esmerlyn Valdez: .306 AVG vs .223 xBA
Esmerlyn Valdez's .306 average comes against a .223 expected (xBA) on 122 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .464 against a .365 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
heat_checkBAL @ BOS
Wilyer Abreu: 1.128 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (41 PA) he is at a 1.128 OPS, up 0.328 on his .800 season mark. He has 15 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
regression_watchOAK @ ARI
Merrill Kelly: 5.2 ERA vs 7.55 xERA
Merrill Kelly carries a 5.2 ERA against a 7.55 expected ERA (2.35 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .279 off him vs a .308 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
heat_checkPIT @ NYY
Ben Rice: 1.314 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.314 OPS spans the last 15 days (37 PA) against a .966 season baseline, a 0.348 swing. He has 29 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
gary_hr_threatsNationals @ Rockies
James Wood
James Wood boasts exceptional power against right-handed pitching, slamming 20 of his 28 home runs against RHP in 250 at-bats this season (an 8.0% home run rate per at-bat). Facing Rockies right-hander Gabriel Hughes, who allows a fly-ball leaning contact profile with a 0.74 GO/AO ratio, Wood is well-positioned at Coors Field.
starter_formOAK @ ARI
Merrill Kelly: 2.12 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 17 innings, 4 earned runs, 15 Ks. That 2.12 ERA sits 3.08 runs under his 5.20 season number.
heat_checkSF @ KC
Lane Thomas: 1.034 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.034 OPS spans the last 15 days (43 PA) against a .750 season baseline, a 0.284 swing. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
cooling_offOAK @ ARI
Corbin Carroll: .449 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Gage Jump
Corbin Carroll's .449 OPS over the last 15 days (37 PA) trails his .819 season mark, down 0.37. Tonight he draws LHP Gage Jump — his stronger side: a 1.006 OPS vs LHP across 111 AB.
cooling_offSTL @ LAA
Ivan Herrera: .466 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Reid Detmers
Ivan Herrera's .466 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .746 season mark, down 0.28. Tonight he draws LHP Reid Detmers — his stronger side: a .818 OPS vs LHP across 105 AB.
cooling_offLAD @ PHI
Freddie Freeman: .493 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Aaron Nola
Freddie Freeman's .493 OPS over the last 15 days (37 PA) trails his .840 season mark, down 0.347. Tonight he draws RHP Aaron Nola — his stronger side: a .911 OPS vs RHP across 255 AB.
regression_tomorrowARI @ STL
Michael McGreevy: 2.92 ERA vs 5.35 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ARI. A 2.92 ERA against a 5.35 expected ERA (2.43 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .236 vs .285 expected.
cooling_offOAK @ ARI
Ketel Marte: .481 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Gage Jump
Ketel Marte's .481 OPS over the last 15 days (46 PA) trails his .769 season mark, down 0.288. Tonight he draws LHP Gage Jump — his stronger side: a .937 OPS vs LHP across 102 AB.
bullpen_fatigueMIN @ CLE
Minnesota Twins pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Minnesota Twins's bullpen has thrown 14.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
cooling_offMIN @ CLE
Kyle Manzardo: .288 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Bailey Ober
Kyle Manzardo's .288 OPS over the last 15 days (33 PA) trails his .652 season mark, down 0.364. Tonight he draws RHP Bailey Ober — his stronger side: a .656 OPS vs RHP across 224 AB.
rest_fatigueNYM @ MIL
MIL's pen has logged 13.3 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 13.3 innings out of the pen — Bryse Wilson (4) and Lance McCullers Jr. (3) carried the load. NYM's pen has thrown 8.7 over the same span.
regression_watchLAD @ PHI
Edmundo Sosa: .218 AVG vs .282 xBA
Edmundo Sosa's .218 average comes against a .282 expected (xBA) on 171 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .267 against a .332 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
starter_formOAK @ ARI
Gage Jump: 6.57 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 6.57 ERA over his last 12.3 innings with a 1.95 WHIP (1.32 season) — the 3.78 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
ownedMIN @ CLE
Jose Ramirez vs Bailey Ober: .321
Jose Ramirez's career line off Bailey Ober is 9-for-28, a .321 average over 28 at-bats with 2 home runs — they meet again tonight. He enters hot (1.000 OPS, L15).
platoon_edgePIT @ NYY
Ryan O'Hearn (bats L) hits 5th against Gerrit Cole (RHP)
Over 222 AB vs. Right, Ryan O'Hearn owns a .881 OPS versus .671 in 98 AB the other way. He sees RHP Gerrit Cole tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
heat_checkWSH @ COL
CJ Abrams: 1.167 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.167 OPS spans the last 15 days (38 PA) against a .892 season baseline, a 0.275 swing. He has 24 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
heat_checkOAK @ ARI
Jacob Wilson: .983 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .983 OPS spans the last 15 days (45 PA) against a .748 season baseline, a 0.235 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
bullpen_fatigueWSH @ COL
Washington Nationals pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Washington Nationals's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
heat_checkNYM @ MIL
Cooper Pratt: .996 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 35 PA: a .996 OPS versus .715 for the season, 0.281 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
cooling_offSF @ KC
Jung Hoo Lee: .475 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Seth Lugo
Jung Hoo Lee's .475 OPS over the last 15 days (39 PA) trails his .759 season mark, down 0.284. Tonight he draws RHP Seth Lugo — his stronger side: a .766 OPS vs RHP across 254 AB.
cooling_offCIN @ SEA
Colt Emerson: .255 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brady Singer
Colt Emerson's .255 OPS over the last 15 days (29 PA) trails his .625 season mark, down 0.37. Tonight he draws RHP Brady Singer — his stronger side: a .634 OPS vs RHP across 118 AB.
ownedMIN @ CLE
Bailey Ober vs Brayan Rocchio: 2-for-16, 6 K
Across 16 career at-bats, Brayan Rocchio is just 2-for-16 against Bailey Ober with 6 strikeouts and a .250 OPS. The rematch is tonight.
ballpark_shiftOAK @ ARI
Merrill Kelly owns a 6.69 ERA at Chase Field — 4.28 everywhere else
Across 7 games (37.7 IP) at Chase Field, Merrill Kelly has a 6.69 ERA against 4.28 at his other parks (61 IP). Hitters bat .313 off him here.
rest_fatigueDET @ CHC
DET's pen has logged 12.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12.7 innings out of the pen — Tyler Holton (2.3) and Jacob Waguespack (2) carried the load. CHC's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
starter_formCIN @ SEA
Emerson Hancock: 0.63 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (14.3 IP) he has a 0.63 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP (1.01 season) and 13 strikeouts — his season mark is 3.17, and that is where most lines still price him.
starter_formTB @ TOR
Griffin Jax: 6.60 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (15 IP) he has been tagged for 11 earned runs — a 6.60 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP (1.27 season) against a 4.08 season mark.
cooling_offSTL @ LAA
Masyn Winn: .353 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Reid Detmers
Masyn Winn's .353 OPS over the last 15 days (36 PA) trails his .635 season mark, down 0.282. Tonight he draws LHP Reid Detmers — his stronger side: a .748 OPS vs LHP across 82 AB.
ownedCIN @ SEA
Cal Raleigh vs Brady Singer: .375
Cal Raleigh's career line off Brady Singer is 6-for-16, a .375 average over 16 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters cold (.580 OPS, L15).
regression_watchWSH @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .280 AVG vs .230 xBA
Mickey Moniak's .280 average comes against a .230 expected (xBA) on 243 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .378 against a .309 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
park_weatherBAL @ BOS
Wind blowing out 11 mph at Fenway Park tonight
Tonight's reading at Fenway Park — Partly Cloudy, 82°, wind 11 mph, Out To CF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 9.
rest_fatigueWSH @ COL
COL's bullpen has covered 12.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 12.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Tanner Gordon (5.7) and Juan Mejia (1.7). WSH's pen has thrown 8.7 over the same span.
park_weatherBAL @ BOS
Wind blowing out 11 mph at Fenway Park tonight
Tonight's reading at Fenway Park — Partly Cloudy, 83°, wind 11 mph, Out To CF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 9.5.
regression_tomorrowSD @ ATL
Griffin Canning: 6.67 ERA vs 4.94 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ATL. A 6.67 ERA against a 4.94 expected ERA (1.73 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .281 vs .254 expected.
regression_watchLAD @ PHI
Aaron Nola: 5.68 ERA vs 4.2 xERA
Aaron Nola carries a 5.68 ERA against a 4.2 expected ERA (1.48 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .278 off him vs a .244 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
cooling_offSF @ KC
Drew Gilbert: .382 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Seth Lugo
Drew Gilbert's .382 OPS over the last 15 days (33 PA) trails his .662 season mark, down 0.28. Tonight he draws RHP Seth Lugo — his stronger side: a .750 OPS vs RHP across 177 AB.
platoon_edgeNYM @ MIL
Garrett Mitchell (bats L) draws Christian Scott (RHP), batting 5th
Garrett Mitchell carries a .865 OPS vs. Right (220 AB) against .698 the other way (69 AB), and faces RHP Christian Scott from the 5th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
fantasy_pickupsOAK @ ARI
Jacob Wilson
Pickup vs Merrill Kelly (7.55 xERA) — .748 OPS, bats 1st.
regression_watchPIT @ NYY
Jake Mangum: .301 AVG vs .256 xBA
Across 270 plate appearances, Jake Mangum carries a .301 average versus a .256 xBA. His wOBA sits at .323 against a .286 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
cooling_offBAL @ BOS
Jarren Duran: .371 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dean Kremer
Jarren Duran's .371 OPS over the last 15 days (37 PA) trails his .594 season mark, down 0.223. Tonight he draws RHP Dean Kremer — his stronger side: a .599 OPS vs RHP across 267 AB.
regression_watchWSH @ COL
Cole Carrigg: .301 AVG vs .257 xBA
Cole Carrigg is hitting .301 against a .257 expected average (xBA) over 134 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .379 against a .333 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
regression_watchDET @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .247 AVG vs .292 xBA
Nico Hoerner is hitting .247 against a .292 expected average (xBA) over 443 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .293 against a .322 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
heat_checkPIT @ NYY
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: .954 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 34 PA: a .954 OPS versus .726 for the season, 0.228 above his norm. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
starter_formMIA @ HOU
Peter Lambert: 1.02 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 2 earned runs over his last 17.7 innings (1.02 ERA) with a 0.79 WHIP (1.11 season) — a different pitcher than the 3.03 season line says.
cooling_offNYM @ MIL
William Contreras: .490 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Christian Scott
William Contreras's .490 OPS over the last 15 days (34 PA) trails his .739 season mark, down 0.249. Tonight he draws RHP Christian Scott — his stronger side: a .741 OPS vs RHP across 264 AB.
starter_formLAD @ PHI
Eric Lauer: 3.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 18 innings, 6 earned runs, 7 Ks. That 3.00 ERA sits 1.81 runs under his 4.81 season number.
ballpark_shiftSF @ KC
Seth Lugo's ERA drops to 3.61 at Kauffman Stadium
Seth Lugo carries a 3.61 ERA over 11 games (62.3 IP) at Kauffman Stadium vs 5.40 across 48.3 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .266 off him here.
park_weatherDET @ CHC
Wind blowing in 10 mph at Wrigley Field tonight
Conditions at Wrigley Field: Clear, 70°, wind 10 mph, In From CF. That wind knocks down anything hit in the air. The total sits at 8.
regression_watchOAK @ ARI
Donovan Walton: .303 AVG vs .261 xBA
Donovan Walton's .303 average comes against a .261 expected (xBA) on 111 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .377 against a .323 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
heat_checkSF @ KC
Isaac Collins: .914 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (35 PA) he is at a .914 OPS, up 0.198 on his .716 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
park_weatherPIT @ NYY
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Yankee Stadium tonight
Conditions at Yankee Stadium: Partly Cloudy, 83°, wind 10 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 9.5.
cooling_offPIT @ NYY
Brandon Lowe: .579 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Gerrit Cole
Brandon Lowe's .579 OPS over the last 15 days (37 PA) trails his .792 season mark, down 0.213. Tonight he draws RHP Gerrit Cole — his stronger side: a .865 OPS vs RHP across 258 AB.
heat_checkBAL @ BOS
Caleb Durbin: .879 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 41 PA: a .879 OPS versus .699 for the season, 0.18 above his norm. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
regression_watchSD @ ATL
Michael King: 3.33 ERA vs 4.62 xERA
Michael King carries a 3.33 ERA against a 4.62 expected ERA (1.29 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .212 off him vs a .248 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
starter_formPIT @ NYY
Bubba Chandler: 6.60 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 15 innings, 11 earned runs, 18 hits. That 6.60 ERA runs 1.83 over his 4.77 season number.
regression_watchTB @ TOR
Griffin Jax: 4.08 ERA vs 5.31 xERA
Griffin Jax carries a 4.08 ERA against a 5.31 expected ERA (1.23 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .250 off him vs a .274 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
regression_watchNYM @ MIL
Christian Scott: 2.87 ERA vs 4.14 xERA
Christian Scott carries a 2.87 ERA against a 4.14 expected ERA (1.27 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .212 off him vs a .230 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
regression_watchSF @ KC
Luis Arraez: .323 AVG vs .284 xBA
Luis Arraez is hitting .323 against a .284 expected average (xBA) over 420 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .349 against a .304 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
ownedMIA @ HOU
Christian Walker vs Sandy Alcantara: .357
Christian Walker has gone 5-for-14 (.357) across 14 career at-bats off Sandy Alcantara, with 1 HR. They meet again tonight. He enters cold (.503 OPS, L15).
regression_watchCIN @ SEA
Emerson Hancock: 3.17 ERA vs 4.34 xERA
Emerson Hancock carries a 3.17 ERA against a 4.34 expected ERA (1.17 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .209 off him vs a .251 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
regression_watchSF @ KC
Seth Lugo: 4.39 ERA vs 5.53 xERA
Seth Lugo carries a 4.39 ERA against a 5.53 expected ERA (1.14 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .280 off him vs a .281 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
ballpark_shiftPIT @ NYY
At Yankee Stadium, Gerrit Cole pitches to a 3.18 ERA
Gerrit Cole at Yankee Stadium: 3.18 ERA over 28.3 innings (5G) — 4.72 on a 26.7-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .192 off him here.
first_inningWSH @ COL
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of WSH @ COL
Both sides keep scoring early — a 1st-inning run in 8 of 10 for COL and 7 of 10 for WSH games lately.
regression_watchSTL @ LAA
Hunter Dobbins: 4.03 ERA vs 5.14 xERA
Hunter Dobbins carries a 4.03 ERA against a 5.14 expected ERA (1.11 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .247 off him vs a .269 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
ownedBAL @ BOS
Masataka Yoshida vs Dean Kremer: .500
In 10 career at-bats against Dean Kremer, Masataka Yoshida is 5-for-10 for a 1.100 OPS. The two square off again tonight. He enters hot (1.011 OPS, L15).
fantasy_pickupsSF @ KC
Casey Schmitt
Pickup vs Seth Lugo (5.53 xERA) — .782 OPS, bats 5th.
park_weatherWSH @ COL
93° at Coors Field — the ball will carry tonight
Tonight's reading at Coors Field — Partly Cloudy, 93°, wind 7 mph, In From RF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 11.5.
regression_tomorrowKC @ DET
Troy Melton: 1.8 ERA vs 3.03 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs KC. A 1.8 ERA against a 3.03 expected ERA (1.23 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .170 vs .215 expected.
fantasy_pickupsSF @ KC
Rafael Devers
Pickup vs Seth Lugo (5.53 xERA) — .776 OPS, bats 4th.
fantasy_pickupsSF @ KC
Heliot Ramos
Pickup vs Seth Lugo (5.53 xERA) — .771 OPS, bats 3rd.
ballpark_shiftLAD @ PHI
Aaron Nola owns a 6.50 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 5.06 everywhere else
Across 9 games (44.3 IP) at Citizens Bank Park, Aaron Nola has a 6.50 ERA against 5.06 at his other parks (58.7 IP). Hitters bat .312 off him here.
regression_tomorrowSD @ ATL
Chris Sale: 2.06 ERA vs 3.31 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SD. A 2.06 ERA against a 3.31 expected ERA (1.25 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .221 vs .228 expected.
fantasy_pickupsMIA @ HOU
Peter Lambert
Streamer vs MIA — 3.29 xERA · 8.9 K/9 · 1.11 WHIP.
fantasy_pickupsSF @ KC
Jung Hoo Lee
Pickup vs Seth Lugo (5.53 xERA) — .759 OPS, bats 6th.
running_gameMIN @ CLE
Green light: Cleveland Guardians run, and Alex Jackson has caught just 13%
Alex Jackson is catching tonight at 13% on the season (2-for-16 throwing), and Cleveland Guardians attempt 1.2 steals a game. The track meet is on.
regression_tomorrowTB @ TOR
Ian Seymour: 4.79 ERA vs 3.67 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TOR. A 4.79 ERA against a 3.67 expected ERA (1.12 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .215 vs .216 expected.
fantasy_pickupsPIT @ NYY
Cody Bellinger
Pickup vs Mitch Keller (5.38 xERA) — .760 OPS, bats 4th.
fantasy_pickupsSF @ KC
Landen Roupp
Streamer vs KC — 3.41 xERA · 9.2 K/9 · 1.27 WHIP.
fantasy_pickupsPIT @ NYY
Gerrit Cole
Streamer vs PIT — 3.56 xERA · 9 K/9 · 1.16 WHIP.
first_inningMIA @ HOU
MIA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Miami Marlins have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
fantasy_pickupsPIT @ NYY
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Pickup vs Mitch Keller (5.38 xERA) — .726 OPS, bats 6th.
fantasy_pickupsBAL @ BOS
Wilyer Abreu
Pickup vs Dean Kremer (4.91 xERA) — .800 OPS, bats 3rd.
first_inningCIN @ SEA
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Seattle Mariners have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
fantasy_pickupsTB @ TOR
Braydon Fisher
Streamer vs TB — 3.75 xERA · 9.1 K/9 · 1.18 WHIP.
running_gameCHW @ TEX
Chicago White Sox like to run — Elias Diaz (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Chicago White Sox attempt 0.9 steals a game, but Elias Diaz has cut down 5 of 15 runners (33%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
fantasy_pickupsBAL @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela
Pickup vs Dean Kremer (4.91 xERA) — .758 OPS, bats 2nd.
first_inningBAL @ BOS
BAL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Baltimore Orioles have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
first_inningNYM @ MIL
MIL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Milwaukee Brewers have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
first_inningBAL @ BOS
BAL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Baltimore Orioles have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
first_inningCHW @ TEX
CHW have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Chicago White Sox have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.

Graded results

Games

W
Red Sox ML -156
MLB · 3-6
L
Yankees -1.5 +114
MLB · 5-3
L
Giants ML -130
MLB · 4-5
W
Brewers ML -158
MLB · 3-4
W
Pirates +1.5 -120
MLB · 5-3
W
Nationals ML -142
MLB · 8-0
L
Mariners ML -164
MLB · 5-3
L
Orioles ML +104
MLB · 3-6
L
Angels ML -134
MLB · 1-0
W
Diamondbacks ML -130
MLB · 5-15
L
Phillies ML +102
MLB · 9-5
W
Rays ML -108
MLB · 4-2
L
Guardians ML -144
MLB · 10-6
L
Padres ML +100
MLB · 6-7
W
Astros ML -116
MLB · 2-5
L
Cubs ML -120
MLB · 5-1
L
Rangers ML +104
MLB · 4-2

Props

W
Ben Rice · over
Pirates @ Yankees · Actual 1
W
Ben Rice · over
Pirates @ Yankees · Actual 5
W
Carter Jensen · over
Giants @ Royals · Actual 1
L
Colt Keith · over
Tigers @ Cubs · Actual 0
L
Dominic Canzone · over
Reds @ Mariners · Actual 1
L
Elly De La Cruz · over
Reds @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Pirates @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Gabriel Moreno · over
Athletics @ Diamondbacks · Actual 4
L
Garrett Mitchell · over
Mets @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Jacob Wilson · over
Athletics @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
L
Jake Burger · over
White Sox @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
James Wood · over
Nationals @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
James Wood · over
Nationals @ Rockies · Actual 1
L
Jordan Walker · over
Cardinals @ Angels · Actual 0
W
Junior Caminero · over
Rays @ Blue Jays · Actual 3
W
Max Muncy · over
Dodgers @ Phillies · Actual 4
L
Mickey Moniak · over
Nationals @ Rockies · Actual 1
L
Munetaka Murakami · over
White Sox @ Rangers · Actual 0
W
Rafael Devers · over
Giants @ Royals · Actual 2
L
Shohei Ohtani · over
Dodgers @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Shohei Ohtani · over
Dodgers @ Phillies · Actual 0
W
Steven Kwan · over
Twins @ Guardians · Actual 3
L
Ty France · over
Padres @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Wilyer Abreu · over
Orioles @ Red Sox · Actual 0
W
Yordan Alvarez · over
Marlins @ Astros · Actual 5