MLB · Wed, Jul 22 · 1:05 PM

Pirates at Yankees

O/U 5.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Yankee Stadium

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Pirates· +114

Under the afternoon sun at Yankee Stadium, two clubs look to set the tone for a crucial doubleheader as Gerrit Cole takes the mound against Mitch Keller in a classic matchup of arms. The starting pitching matchup heavily favors New York as Cole has been trending in the right direction, posting a 3.00 ERA over his last three starts and holding a season-long xERA of 3.56. Keller, meanwhile, has struggled with a 5.14 ERA and a 5.38 xERA, demonstrating a performance profile that is highly vulnerable to top-tier offenses. The tactical advantage is stark when analyzing the batting matchups. Keller has been highly vulnerable to left-handed hitters this season, allowing an .843 OPS and surrendering 11 of his 13 home runs against them. The Yankees have optimized their lineup to exploit this exact weakness, featuring eight left-handed or switch-hitting batters today. In an environment with 83°F temperatures and a 10 mph wind blowing out to center field, this lefty-heavy order is built to produce extra-base hits. In particular, Ben Rice—who boasts a 1.020 OPS and 21 home runs against right-handed pitching—is in a prime position to inflict damage against Keller's vulnerable 4-seam fastball. Additionally, the bullpen disparity gives New York the ultimate closing edge. Although the Yankees enter the doubleheader with a bullpen that has been heavily taxed recently, the Tuesday rainout provided a vital day of rest to reset their hierarchy. This ensures high-leverage weapons like David Bednar, who carries a 2.59 ERA and is on a 17-appearance scoreless streak, alongside setup arms Fernando Cruz (2.32 ERA) and Paul Blackburn (2.08 ERA), are fully available. With Cole's recent consistency and a lineup perfectly constructed to tee off on Keller, the Yankees are set up to control this game from start to finish.

The pick & result

Published pick: Yankees -1.5 +114
Published odds: +114
Result: Lost
Final score: 5-3

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Yankees· -120

Night falls over the Bronx as the Pirates and Yankees prepare for the second act of today's split doubleheader at Yankee Stadium. After Pittsburgh's 5-3 extra-inning victory in Game 1, the Yankees are sending Max Fried to the mound to stabilize things, while the Pirates counter with young right-hander Bubba Chandler. This game is being priced heavily on Fried's reputation and season-long numbers, but a deeper look at the context reveals a glaring vulnerability in the Yankees' run prevention plan tonight. Fried is returning from the 15-day injured list ahead of schedule and skipping his final rehab start, meaning his workload will likely be capped around 75-80 pitches. Once Fried exits, a severely fatigued Yankees bullpen must take over. This unit is heavily taxed after a 10-inning Game 1 where closer David Bednar threw 22 pitches and setup man Fernando Cruz threw 24 pitches, meaning the late-inning safety net for New York is practically gone. The Pirates are uniquely equipped to capitalize on this bullpen crisis because of how they've structured their lineup to neutralize Fried's strengths. While Fried is nearly untouchable against lefties, holding them to a .148 average and .360 OPS, the Pirates have stacked their lineup with right-handed and switch-hitting power. Bryan Reynolds, who carries a career .812 OPS with a home run against Fried in 23 at-bats, and Esmerlyn Valdez, who boasts a massive 1.533 OPS against left-handed pitchers in a 38 at-bat sample, force Fried to pitch to his weaker platoon split where righties hit him for a .575 OPS. Even if Chandler faces trouble early against a left-handed-heavy Yankees lineup featuring Ben Rice (who has a 1.020 OPS against right-handers and a 1.000 slugging percentage against 4-seam fastballs), the Pirates' offense has the firepower to claw back in the middle and late innings against the depleted Yankee relievers. Taking the Pirates on the run line at +1.5 (-130) provides an incredibly strong safety net in a game that figures to have heavy variance. Chandler’s heavy fly-ball profile (0.68 GO/AO) in a park with an 8 mph wind blowing out to right field means there's a risk of early damage, but the Pirates’ late-game advantages are massive. While Pittsburgh’s bullpen is also tired, closer Gregory Soto is relatively fresh after throwing just 16 pitches in Game 1, and they have called up right-hander Noah Murdock as the 27th man to provide multi-inning relief. Against a Yankees lineup relying on its current configuration, the Pirates are primed to keep this game neck-and-neck until the very end, making the run line the smartest bet on the board.

The Pirates are uniquely equipped to capitalize on this bullpen crisis because of how they've structured their lineup to neutralize Fried's strengths. While Fried is nearly untouchable against lefties, holding them to a .148 average and .360 OPS, the Pirates have stacked their lineup with right-handed and switch-hitting power. Bryan Reynolds, who carries a career .812 OPS with a home run against Fried in 23 at-bats, and Esmerlyn Valdez, who boasts a massive 1.533 OPS against left-handed pitchers in a 38 at-bat sample, force Fried to pitch to his weaker platoon split where righties hit him for a .575 OPS. Even if Chandler faces trouble early against a left-handed-heavy Yankees lineup featuring Ben Rice (who has a 1.020 OPS against right-handers and a 1.000 slugging percentage against 4-seam fastballs), the Pirates' offense has the firepower to claw back in the middle and late innings against the depleted Yankee relievers.

Taking the Pirates on the run line at +1.5 (-130) provides an incredibly strong safety net in a game that figures to have heavy variance. Chandler’s heavy fly-ball profile (0.68 GO/AO) in a park with an 8 mph wind blowing out to right field means there's a risk of early damage, but the Pirates’ late-game advantages are massive. While Pittsburgh’s bullpen is also tired, closer Gregory Soto is relatively fresh after throwing just 16 pitches in Game 1, and they have called up right-hander Noah Murdock as the 27th man to provide multi-inning relief. Against a Yankees lineup relying on its current configuration, the Pirates are primed to keep this game neck-and-neck until the very end, making the run line the smartest bet on the board.

The pick & result

Published pick: Pirates +1.5 -120
Published odds: -120
Result: Won
Final score: 5-3

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read: Yankees -1.5

The tactical advantage is stark when analyzing the batting matchups. Keller has been highly vulnerable to left-handed hitters this season, allowing an .843 OPS and surrendering 11 of his 13 home runs against them. The Yankees have optimized their lineup to exploit this exact weakness, featuring eight left-handed or switch-hitting batters today. In an environment with 83°F temperatures and a 10 mph wind blowing out to center field, this lefty-heavy order is built to produce extra-base hits. In particular, Ben Rice—who boasts a 1.020 OPS and 21 home runs against right-handed pitching—is in a prime position to inflict damage against Keller's vulnerable 4-seam fastball.

Additionally, the bullpen disparity gives New York the ultimate closing edge. Although the Yankees enter the doubleheader with a bullpen that has been heavily taxed recently, the Tuesday rainout provided a vital day of rest to reset their hierarchy. This ensures high-leverage weapons like David Bednar, who carries a 2.59 ERA and is on a 17-appearance scoreless streak, alongside setup arms Fernando Cruz (2.32 ERA) and Paul Blackburn (2.08 ERA), are fully available. With Cole's recent consistency and a lineup perfectly constructed to tee off on Keller, the Yankees are set up to control this game from start to finish.

Injuries noted

Yankees: [NEW] Max Fried (SP) — Elbow (Left): Fried (elbow) is expected to be reinstated from the 15-day injured list and start Game 2 of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Pirates, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. (Jul 21 — 0d ago) [NEW] Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter) — Calf (Right): Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters Monday that Stanton has "no timeline" to start a minor-league rehab assignment, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Jul 20 — 1d ago) [NEW] Aaron Judge (RF) — Ribs (Right): Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that a specialist determined that Judge (ribs) is not yet ready to resume baseball activities, Erik Boland of Newsday reports. (Jul 18 — 3d ago) [NEW] Carlos Rodon (SP) — Elbow (Left): Rodon (elbow) received a second round of injections after throwing about 10 pitches off a mound Friday and could progress to a full bullpen session this week, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. (Jul 19 — 2d ago) Pirates: [NEW] Oneil Cruz (CF) — Hand (Left): The Pirates transferred Cruz (hand) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 18 — 3d ago) [NEW] Chris Devenski (RP) — Illness (Not Specified): Devenski (illness) was sent to the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment. (Jul 21 — 1d ago) [NEW] Spencer Horwitz (1B) — Hamstring (Left): Horwitz (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton on Tuesday, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 20 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Evan Sisk (RP) — Elbow (Left): Sisk was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 4 — 18d ago) [KNOWN] Endy Rodriguez (C) — Lower Body (Left): Rodriguez (hip) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game versus Atlanta. (Jul 8 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Konnor Griffin (SS) — Finger (Left): The Pirates transferred Griffin (finger) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 11 — 11d ago)

The read: Pirates +1.5

Injuries noted

Yankees: [NEW] Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter) — Calf (Right): Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters Monday that Stanton has "no timeline" to start a minor-league rehab assignment, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Jul 20 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Aaron Judge (RF) — Ribs (Right): Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that a specialist determined that Judge (ribs) is not yet ready to resume baseball activities, Erik Boland of Newsday reports. (Jul 18 — 4d ago) [NEW] Carlos Rodon (SP) — Elbow (Left): Rodon (elbow) received a second round of injections after throwing about 10 pitches off a mound Friday and could progress to a full bullpen session this week, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. (Jul 19 — 3d ago) Pirates: [KNOWN] Oneil Cruz (CF) — Hand (Left): The Pirates transferred Cruz (hand) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 18 — 4d ago) [NEW] Chris Devenski (RP) — Illness (Not Specified): Devenski (illness) was sent to the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment. (Jul 21 — 1d ago) [NEW] Spencer Horwitz (1B) — Hamstring (Left): Horwitz (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton on Tuesday, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 20 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Evan Sisk (RP) — Elbow (Left): Sisk was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 4 — 18d ago) [KNOWN] Endy Rodriguez (C) — Lower Body (Left): Rodriguez (hip) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game versus Atlanta. (Jul 8 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Konnor Griffin (SS) — Finger (Left): The Pirates transferred Griffin (finger) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 11 — 11d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

PLATOON EDGE

Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Gerrit Cole (RHP), batting 2nd
.865
Brandon Lowe carries a .865 OPS vs. Right (258 AB) against .617 the other way (110 AB), and faces RHP Gerrit Cole from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
Ryan O'Hearn (bats L) hits 5th against Gerrit Cole (RHP)
.881
Over 222 AB vs. Right, Ryan O'Hearn owns a .881 OPS versus .671 in 98 AB the other way. He sees RHP Gerrit Cole tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.

HEAT CHECK

Ben Rice: 1.314 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.314
That 1.314 OPS spans the last 15 days (37 PA) against a .966 season baseline, a 0.348 swing. He has 29 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: .954 OPS in Last 15 Days
.954
The last 15 days sample runs 34 PA: a .954 OPS versus .726 for the season, 0.228 above his norm. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

COOLING OFF

Brandon Lowe: .579 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Gerrit Cole
.579
Brandon Lowe's .579 OPS over the last 15 days (37 PA) trails his .792 season mark, down 0.213. Tonight he draws RHP Gerrit Cole — his stronger side: a .865 OPS vs RHP across 258 AB.

HR THREAT

Ben Rice
+310
1. THE PICK: Ben Rice OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310) 2.

BULLPEN

New York Yankees pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
15.3 IP
New York Yankees's bullpen has thrown 15.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.

RUNNING GAME

New York Yankees like to run — Henry Davis (54% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
54% CS
Henry Davis owns a 54% caught-stealing rate (14 of 26) and New York Yankees run anyway — 1 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.

BALLPARK

At Yankee Stadium, Gerrit Cole pitches to a 3.18 ERA
3.18
Gerrit Cole at Yankee Stadium: 3.18 ERA over 28.3 innings (5G) — 4.72 on a 26.7-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .192 off him here.

PARK WEATHER

Wind blowing out 10 mph at Yankee Stadium tonight
OUT 10
Conditions at Yankee Stadium: Partly Cloudy, 83°, wind 10 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 9.5.

SITUATIONAL

NYY's pen has logged 15.3 innings across its last 3 games
15.3
3 games, 15.3 innings out of the pen — Brent Headrick (3) and Angel Chivilli (2.7) carried the load. PIT's pen has thrown 14.3 over the same span.

STREAK

NYY games have gone UNDER 4 straight
U4
The under has cashed 4 in a row in NYY games: 7.3 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 10. Tonight's number sits at 9.5.

REGRESSION

Esmerlyn Valdez: .306 AVG vs .223 xBA
.223
Esmerlyn Valdez's .306 average comes against a .223 expected (xBA) on 122 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .464 against a .365 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
Jake Mangum: .301 AVG vs .256 xBA
.256
Across 270 plate appearances, Jake Mangum carries a .301 average versus a .256 xBA. His wOBA sits at .323 against a .286 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.

FANTASY PICKUPS

Cody Bellinger
.760 OPS
Pickup vs Mitch Keller (5.38 xERA) — .760 OPS, bats 4th.
Gerrit Cole
3.56 xERA
Streamer vs PIT — 3.56 xERA · 9 K/9 · 1.16 WHIP.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
.726 OPS
Pickup vs Mitch Keller (5.38 xERA) — .726 OPS, bats 6th.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored July 22, 2026 at 11:40 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betmgm, draftkings, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
BEN RICEH+R+RBI OVER 2.5
MLBYankees· +110
1:05 PM ET
The matchup between Mitch Keller and the Yankees' left-handed heavy lineup is the central focus of this game. Keller has been historically vulnerable to lefties this season, surrendering a .843 OPS and 11 of his 13 home runs to that side. Ben Rice is the most dangerous left-handed bat in the New York order, leading the team with 29 home runs and a .966 OPS. Batting second, Rice is guaranteed the plate appearance volume necessary to maximize this matchup. In 83-degree heat with a 10 mph wind blowing straight out to center field, Rice's power profile suggests a high probability of multiple hits or a run-scoring extra-base hit. A single home run or two productive hits with a run scored clears this line comfortably.
Ben Rice
H+R+RBI over 2.5
+110 · 1:05 PM ET
Yankees
The matchup between Mitch Keller and the Yankees' left-handed heavy lineup is the central focus of this game. Keller has been historically vulnerable to lefties this season, surrendering a .843 OPS and 11 of his 13 home runs to that side.
Ben Rice is the most dangerous left-handed bat in the New York order, leading the team with 29 home runs and a .966 OPS. Batting second, Rice is guaranteed the plate appearance volume necessary to maximize this matchup.
In 83-degree heat with a 10 mph wind blowing straight out to center field, Rice's power profile suggests a high probability of multiple hits or a run-scoring extra-base hit. A single home run or two productive hits with a run scored clears this line comfortably.
GARY'S PICK
ESMERLYN VALDEZH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
MLBPirates· -108
1:05 PM ET
While Gerrit Cole is generally dominant at home, his 2026 splits reveal a significant opening for right-handed hitters, who are batting .289 against him. Esmerlyn Valdez has emerged as the Pirates' premier right-handed power threat, maintaining a massive 1.127 OPS and hitting 13 home runs in a limited sample of just 108 at-bats. Valdez is batting cleanup, placing him directly behind high-OBP threats like Bryan Reynolds, which creates substantial RBI opportunities. Given the hitter-friendly conditions at Yankee Stadium today, Valdez only needs one extra-base hit or a single with a run/RBI to clear this line. His elite contact quality (1.127 OPS) against Cole's specific weakness for righties provides a distinct edge.
Esmerlyn Valdez
H+R+RBI over 1.5
-108 · 1:05 PM ET
Pirates
While Gerrit Cole is generally dominant at home, his 2026 splits reveal a significant opening for right-handed hitters, who are batting .289 against him. Esmerlyn Valdez has emerged as the Pirates' premier right-handed power threat, maintaining a massive 1.127 OPS and hitting 13 home runs in a limited sample of just 108 at-bats.
Valdez is batting cleanup, placing him directly behind high-OBP threats like Bryan Reynolds, which creates substantial RBI opportunities. Given the hitter-friendly conditions at Yankee Stadium today, Valdez only needs one extra-base hit or a single with a run/RBI to clear this line.
His elite contact quality (1.127 OPS) against Cole's specific weakness for righties provides a distinct edge.
THE LONG SHOT
BEN RICEHR OVER 0.5
MLBNew York Yankees· +310
1:05 PM ET
1. THE PICK: Ben Rice OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310) 2. MATCHUP: Mitch Keller (RHP) vs. Ben Rice (LHB) 3. THE KEY FACTOR: Ben Rice has displayed elite power identity throughout the 2026 season, smashing 29 home runs in 352 at-bats (an 8.2% home run rate per AB). Over his last 15 days, Rice has been in scorching form, batting .405 (15-for-37) with 4 home runs, 11 RBIs, and a 1.314 OPS. Mitch Keller has suffered severe, structural platoon issues against left-handed hitters all season, surrendering 11 home runs and an .822 OPS across 270 ABs to LHBs. Rice's underlying season trajectory combined with Keller's left-handed home run vulnerability gives Rice a clear edge to clear his +310 price tag (24.4% break-even threshold). 4. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Yankee Stadium features a famous 314-foot short porch in right field. Weather conditions at game time call for 83°F temperature with a 14 mph wind blowing straight OUT to Center Field, providing optimal environmental carry for a left-handed pull hitter. 5. VOLUME FLOOR: Batting 2nd in the Yankees starting lineup as a left-handed hitter, Rice is locked into 4 to 5 plate appearances in a game with an 8.5 game total. 6. THE RISK: Mitch Keller successfully executing his 92.3 mph sinker and 89.8 mph cutter low in the strike zone to generate ground balls (0.82 GO/AO), or Pittsburgh making a quick bullpen switch to left-handed relievers like Mason Montgomery or Gregory Soto in Rice's late-game plate appearances.
Ben Rice
HR over 0.5
+310 · 1:05 PM ET
New York Yankees
1. THE PICK: Ben Rice OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310)
2. MATCHUP: Mitch Keller (RHP) vs. Ben Rice (LHB)
3. THE KEY FACTOR: Ben Rice has displayed elite power identity throughout the 2026 season, smashing 29 home runs in 352 at-bats (an 8.2% home run rate per AB). Over his last 15 days, Rice has been in scorching form, batting .405 (15-for-37) with 4 home runs, 11 RBIs, and a 1.314 OPS. Mitch Keller has suffered severe, structural platoon issues against left-handed hitters all season, surrendering 11 home runs and an .822 OPS across 270 ABs to LHBs. Rice's underlying season trajectory combined with Keller's left-handed home run vulnerability gives Rice a clear edge to clear his +310 price tag (24.4% break-even threshold).
4. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Yankee Stadium features a famous 314-foot short porch in right field. Weather conditions at game time call for 83°F temperature with a 14 mph wind blowing straight OUT to Center Field, providing optimal environmental carry for a left-handed pull hitter.
5. VOLUME FLOOR: Batting 2nd in the Yankees starting lineup as a left-handed hitter, Rice is locked into 4 to 5 plate appearances in a game with an 8.5 game total.
6. THE RISK: Mitch Keller successfully executing his 92.3 mph sinker and 89.8 mph cutter low in the strike zone to generate ground balls (0.82 GO/AO), or Pittsburgh making a quick bullpen switch to left-handed relievers like Mason Montgomery or Gregory Soto in Rice's late-game plate appearances.

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