Cardinals at Angels

It is a beautiful, sun-drenched afternoon in Anaheim as the Los Angeles Angels look to complete a series sweep against the visiting St. Louis Cardinals at Angel Stadium. This afternoon clash features a massive starting pitching mismatch that is simply not being reflected in the current line. The Angels send lefty Reid Detmers to the mound, and while his standard 4.16 ERA looks average, his underlying metrics are stellar. Detmers boasts a 3.26 xERA and a .281 opponent xwOBA, proving that he has pitched far better than his actual results indicate. His primary weapon, a devastating slider that he throws 32.7% of the time, has held opposing hitters to an elite .184 xwOBA. This is bad news for the Cardinals' best threat against lefties, Jordan Walker, who is sporting a weak .198 xwOBA against sliders. Furthermore, key Cardinal bat Alec Burleson has struggled immensely in this platoon split, hitting for a meager .514 OPS against left-handed pitching.

On the other side of the diamond, St. Louis counteracts with Hunter Dobbins, a right-hander whose 4.03 ERA is a mirage waiting to fade. Dobbins is a massive negative regression candidate, carrying a bloated 5.14 xERA. He has consistently struggled to suppress quality contact, allowing an alarming 48.4% hard-hit rate and an 11.3% barrel rate. To make matters worse, Dobbins has been hammered in day games on the road, where he has struggled to a 6.23 ERA. This afternoon, with temperatures hovering around 84°F and an 8 mph wind blowing out toward right field, he will have to navigate an Angels lineup that matches up exceptionally well against his high-velocity 4-seam fastball and sinker. Mike Trout (.848 OPS vs. RHP) and Wade Meckler (.855 OPS vs. RHP) are both primed to take advantage of Dobbins’ tendency to yield loud contact.

While the Cardinals possess the superior overall record this season, they are currently mired in a four-game losing streak and have been held to just three total runs over the first two games of this series. The Angels have all the momentum after consecutive home victories, including a walk-off win in the opener. With their starting pitcher significantly underrated by the traditional ERA and the opposing starter heavily overrated, backing the home team at this price is a logical play. The Angels have the platoon advantages, the pitching edge, and the hot hand to sweep this series.